Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Driven resonant current amplification in self-organized plasma configurations with uniform λ and plasma pressure confinement

Driven resonant current amplification in uniform λ=$^{μoJ}_{B}$, self-organized plasma configurations with plasma pressure confinement is studied. This work extends previous analyses of force-free states (J ∥ B) to equilibria with plasma pressure gradients (∇P = J × B ≠ 0). An analytical treatment shows that in equilibria with uniform λ and a plasma pressure gradient that varies linearly with poloidal magnetic flux, driven resonances are either downshifted or upshifted from their force-free values. Additionally, a modification of off resonance current amplification is observed in pressure confining equilibria. Computational results add support to analytical predictions, and also include driven resonance behavior with equilibrium profiles not considered analytically. Furthermore, these results suggest not only persistence, but also modification of driven resonant current amplification in sustained spheromak configurations with plasma pressure confinement when compared to force-free states. By providing a basis for the existence of driven, high current amplification, pressure confining equilibria, this work provides insight into the accessibility of sustained spheromak states of most interest for potential fusion energy applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Centaur Standard Shroud (CSS) full jettison test dynamic analysis

During the space power facility jettison tests, the non-domed half of the Centaur standard shroud was allowed to completely separate from its hinge connection and was caught in a horizontal catch net. A rigid body dynamic analysis that was performed to predict the half shroud prior to and after net contact is presented. Analytical predictions of the longitudinal and circumferential bending moments imposed on the half shroud by the catch net and the net pressure on the half shroud corrugated skin are also presented.

Kasper, H. J.↗

Measurement and analysis of critical crack tip processes during fatigue crack growth

The mechanics of fatigue crack growth under constant-amplitudes and variable-amplitude loading were examined. Critical loading histories involving relatively simple overload and overload/underload cycles were studied to provide a basic understanding of the underlying physical processes controlling crack growth. The material used for this study was 7091-T7E69, a powder metallurgy aluminum alloy. Local crack-tip parameters were measured at various times before, during, and after the overloads, these include crack-tip opening loads and displacements, and crack-tip strain fields. The latter were useed, in combination with the materials cyclic and monotonic stress-strain properties, to compute crack-tip residual stresses. The experimental results are also compared with analytical predictions obtained using the FAST-2 computer code. The sensitivity of the analytical model to constant-amplitude fatigue crack growth rate properties and to through-thickness constrain are studied.

Davidson, D. L.↗

Divergence study of a high-aspect ratio, forward-swept wing

A study has been conducted in the NASA-Langley Transonic Dynamics wind tunnel to determine the divergence characteristics of a high aspect ratio forward swept wing of rectangular planform, for sweep angles of zero, -15, -30, -45, and -60 deg. In addition to a rectangular wingtip, a tip whose geometry lay parallel with the freestream flow was tested at a sweep angle of -45 deg. The primary objective was to obtain data that could be used to verify the divergence prediction capabilities of an aeroelastic analysis code employing kernel function aerodynamics. The analytical predictions of convergence were found to be conservative for all forward sweep angles, and the effect of the two tip shapes on divergence dynamic pressure were accurately predicted.

Cole, S. R.↗

Mechanical behavior of fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN ceramic matrix composites: Theory and experiment

The mechanical behavior of continuous fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN (Reaction Bonded Silicon Nitride) composites with various fiber contents is evaluated. Both catastrophic and noncatastrophic failures are observed in tensile specimens. Damage and failure mechanisms are identified via in-situ monitoring using NDE (nondestructive evaluation) techniques through the loading history. Effects of fiber/matrix interface debonding (splitting) parallel to fibers are discussed. Statistical failure behavior of fibers is also observed, especially when the interface is weak. Micromechanical models incorporating residual stresses to calculate the critical matrix cracking strength, ultimate strength, and work of pull-out are reviewed and used to predict composite response. For selected test problems, experimental measurements are compared to analytical predictions.

Chulya, Abhisak↗

Mechanical behavior of fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN ceramic matrix composites - Theory and experiment

The mechanical behavior of continuous fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN (Reaction Bonded Silicon Nitride) composites with various fiber contents is evaluated. Both catastrophic and noncatastrophic failures are observed in tensile specimens. Damage and failure mechanisms are identified via in-situ monitoring using NDE (nondestructive evaluation) techniques throughout the loading history. Effects of fiber/matrix interface debonding (splitting) parallel to fibers are discussed. Statistical failure behavior of fibers is also observed, especially when the interface is weak. Micromechanical models incorproating residual stresses to calculate the critical matrix cracking strength, ultimate strength, and work of pull-out are reviewed and used to predict composite response. For selected test problems, experimental measurements are compared to analytical predictions.

Chulya, Abhisak↗

Thermal Testing of a Stacked Core Mirror for UV Applications

The ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. Under Science and Technology funding, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and ITT Exelis have developed a more cost effective process to make 4m monolithic spaceflight UV quality, low areal density, thermally and dynamically stable primary mirrors. A proof of concept mirror was built and tested down to 250K which would allow imaging out to 2.5 microns. This mirror was thermally tested at the Marshall Spaceflight Center to understand the thermal changes between the processing temperature of 293K and the potential low end of the operational temperature of 250K. Isothermal testing results and front plate gradient results have been evaluated and compared to analysis predictions. Measurement of gravity effects on surface figure will be compared to analytical predictions. Future testing of a larger Pathfinder mirror will also be discussed.

Matthews, Gary↗

Thermal Testing of a Stacked Core Mirror for UV Applications

The ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. Under Science and Technology funding, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and ITT Exelis have developed a more cost effective process to make 4m monolithic spaceflight UV quality, low areal density, thermally and dynamically stable primary mirrors. A proof of concept mirror was built and tested down to 250K which would allow imaging out to 2.5 microns. This mirror was thermally tested at the Marshall Spaceflight Center to understand the thermal changes between the processing temperature of 293K and the potential low end of the operational temperature of 250K. Isothermal testing results and front plate gradient results have been evaluated and compared to analysis predictions. Measurement of gravity effects on surface figure will be compared to analytical predictions. Future testing of a larger Pathfinder mirror will also be discussed.

Matthews, Gary W.↗

Experimental study of transient liquid motion in orbiting spacecraft

A test program was conducted involving forty-five drops of liquid propellant in instrumented tanks. Biaxial, low-g accelerations were applied to the model propellant tanks during free-fall testing, and forces exerted during liquid reorientation were measured and recorded. High speed photographic records of the liquid reorientation were also made. The test data was used to verify a mechanical analog which portrays the liquid as a point mass moving on an ellipsoidal constraint surface. The mechanical analog was coded into two FORTRAN 4 digital computer programs. Results showed excellent correlation between test data and analytical predictions of reorientation forces and liquid center of mass motion, verifying the basic analytical approach.

Berry, R. L.↗

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Preliminary design, analysis, and costing of a dynamic scale model of the NASA space station

The difficulty of testing the next generation of large flexible space structures on the ground places an emphasis on other means for validating predicted on-orbit dynamic behavior. Scale model technology represents one way of verifying analytical predictions with ground test data. This study investigates the preliminary design, scaling and cost trades for a Space Station dynamic scale model. The scaling of nonlinear joint behavior is studied from theoretical and practical points of view. Suspension system interaction trades are conducted for the ISS Dual Keel Configuration and Build-Up Stages suspended in the proposed NASA/LaRC Large Spacecraft Laboratory. Key issues addressed are scaling laws, replication vs. simulation of components, manufacturing, suspension interactions, joint behavior, damping, articulation capability, and cost. These issues are the subject of parametric trades versus the scale model factor. The results of these detailed analyses are used to recommend scale factors for four different scale model options, each with varying degrees of replication. Potential problems in constructing and testing the scale model are identified, and recommendations for further study are outlined.

Gronet, M. J.↗

Analysis and Test Correlation of Proof of Concept Box for Blended Wing Body-Low Speed Vehicle

The Low Speed Vehicle (LSV) is a 14.2% scale remotely piloted vehicle of the revolutionary Blended Wing Body concept. The design of the LSV includes an all composite airframe. Due to internal manufacturing capability restrictions, room temperature layups were necessary. An extensive materials testing and manufacturing process development effort was underwent to establish a process that would achieve the high modulus/low weight properties required to meet the design requirements. The analysis process involved a loads development effort that incorporated aero loads to determine internal forces that could be applied to a traditional FEM of the vehicle and to conduct detailed component analyses. A new tool, Hypersizer, was added to the design process to address various composite failure modes and to optimize the skin panel thickness of the upper and lower skins for the vehicle. The analysis required an iterative approach as material properties were continually changing. As a part of the material characterization effort, test articles, including a proof of concept wing box and a full-scale wing, were fabricated. The proof of concept box was fabricated based on very preliminary material studies and tested in bending, torsion, and shear. The box was then tested to failure under shear. The proof of concept box was also analyzed using Nastran and Hypersizer. The results of both analyses were scaled to determine the predicted failure load. The test results were compared to both the Nastran and Hypersizer analytical predictions. The actual failure occurred at 899 lbs. The failure was predicted at 1167 lbs based on the Nastran analysis. The Hypersizer analysis predicted a lower failure load of 960 lbs. The Nastran analysis alone was not sufficient to predict the failure load because it does not identify local composite failure modes. This analysis has traditionally been done using closed form solutions. Although Hypersizer is typically used as an optimizer for the design process, the failure prediction was used to help gain acceptance and confidence in this new tool. The correlated models and process were to be used to analyze the full BWB-LSV airframe design. The analysis and correlation with test results of the proof of concept box is presented here, including the comparison of the Nastran and Hypersizer results.

Spellman, Regina L.↗

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Host turbine heat transfer overview

Improved methods of predicting airfoil local metal temperatures require advances in the understanding of the physics and methods of analytically predicting the following four aerothermal loads: hot gas flow over airfoils, heat transfer rates on the gas-side of airfoils, cooling air flow inside airfoils, and heat transfer rates on the coolant-side of airfoils. A systematic building block research approach is being pursued to investigate these four areas of concern from both the experimental and analytical sides. Experimental approaches being pursued start with fundamental experiments using simple shapes and flat plates in wind tunnels, progress to more realistic cold and hot cascade tests using airfoils, continue to progress in large low-speed rigs and turbines and warm turbines, and finally, combine all the interactive effects in tests using real engines or real engine type turbine rigs. Analytical approaches being pursued also build from relatively simple steady two dimensional inviscid flow and boundary layer heat transfer codes to more advanced steady two and three dimensional viscous flow and heat transfer codes. These advanced codes provide more physics to model better the interactive effects and the true real-engine environment.

Rohde, J. E.↗

Performance measurement of low concentration ratio solar array for space application

The measured performance of a silicon and a gallium arsenide low concentration ratio solar array (LCRSA) element is presented. The element characteristics measured in natural sunlight are off pointing performance and response to mechanical distortions. Laboratory measurements of individual silicon and gallium-arsenide solar cell assemblies are also made. The characteristics measured in the laboratory involved responses to temperature and intensity variations as well as to the application of reverse bias potentials. The element design details covered include the materials, the solar cells, and the rationale for selecting these specific characteristics. The measured performance characteristics are contrasted with the predicted values for both laboratory testing and high altitude natural sunlight testing. Excellent agreement between analytical predictions and measured performance is observed.

Mills, M. W.↗

The nonlinear dynamics of a spacecraft coupled to the vibration of a contained fluid

The dynamics of a linear spacecraft mode coupled to a nonlinear low gravity slosh of a fluid in a cylindrical tank is investigated. Coupled, nonlinear equations of motion for the fluid-spacecraft dynamics are derived through an assumed mode Lagrangian method. Unlike linear fluid slosh models, this nonlinear slosh model retains two fundamental slosh modes and three secondary modes. An approximate perturbation solution of the equations of motion indicates that the nonlinear coupled system response involves fluid-spacecraft modal resonances not predicted by either a linear, or a nonlinear, uncoupled slosh analysis. Experimental results substantiate the analytical predictions.

Peterson, Lee D.↗