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At least 163 records · Page 9

Fossil Energy in the Hydrogen Economy – A Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus Adaptive Evaluation Platform

This project develops tools to evaluate fossil energy within the hydrogen economy. In particular, the project seeks to explore the Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus and develop adaptive evaluation tools. The primary goal of this project was to evaluate fossil-based hydrogen production methods with an emphasis on their sustainability, particularly with respect to carbon emissions and water use. The overall technical objectives that guided this evaluation consisted of 1) technology assessment, which sought to establish a comprehensive baseline of existing and emerging technologies for the generation, transportation, storage, and end use of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, 2) carbon footprint analysis through quantification and analysis of carbon emissions associated with these hydrogen technologies, and identification of novel strategies and technologies that can effectively mitigate the carbon footprint, 3) water intensity assessment by evaluating the water needs (water-energy nexus) associated with different fossil fuel-based hydrogen technologies and proposing strategies to reduce water use, thus ensuring sustainable resource management, and 4) review of regulatory, policy and economic trends were examined to provide an overview of the factors influencing the adoption and integration of fossil fuel-derived hydrogen technologies into current energy markets. Beyond the technical outcomes, this project contributed to 5) education and workforce development through targeted training and educational opportunities for engineering students, preparing the next generation of professionals with technical, economic, and regulatory expertise in the hydrogen economy. Ultimately, this effort was intended to train the future workforce to provide useful insights to policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the broader energy community to facilitate informed decisions and responsible development within the hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Assessment of Seasonal Energy Performance for Room Air Conditioners in Multiple Climates

This report provides a general approach for adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric by examining the climate-specific temperature bin distribution for air conditioner use, the seasonal energy efficiency results according to International Standards Organization (ISO) 16358 by climate region, and the relationships in seasonal energy efficiency across regional metrics. This approach could make the seasonal efficiency metric values comparable with those from other countries with standards consistent with ISO 16358. Policy action and market transformation can be accelerated and effectively harmonized with other regional or international efforts by adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric. The framework and methodology described in this report have been applied in the following publications: Shaffie et al. 2022, Park et al. 2021, Park et al. 2019, and UNEP 2019a.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Quantifying Rooftop Solar Benefits: A State-Level Value of Solar Analysis for India

Analyses that quantify the costs and benefits associated with rooftop solar (RTS) adoption and operation can inform decision-makers in the development and evaluation of RTS policies. One such analysis is a Value of Solar (VOS) study, which quantifies select costs and benefits surrounding RTS based on the electricity system context. These studies can drive changes to existing policies towards fairer, more cost-reflective RTS compensation or alternatively can provide confidence for the decision-maker to stay the course and largely maintain existing policies. This report provides a VOS analysis for two states in India: Gujarat and Jharkhand and provides details related to the methodology and key findings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ten questions on future and extreme weather data for building simulation and analysis in a changing climate

Weather plays a significant role in building operations as it directly influences HVAC loads and in turn the building energy and thermal performance. In a changing climate, future trends and extreme weather events become critical concerns in the global building decarbonization and clean energy transition. This paper aims to address ten key questions concerning extreme and future weather data for building applications, and more importantly to identify research gaps and guide the curation and selection of future and extreme weather data for use in building performance simulation and assessment. The paper intends to inform architects and engineers, operators, owners, policy makers, and other stakeholders on considering the impacts of future and extreme weather data and adopting strategies for selecting and applying this data in various use cases related to building design, operation, and retrofit for energy efficiency, electrification, and climate resilience.

Yan, Da↗

Closing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) systems are an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, recent synthesis studies of field measurements of CH 4 emissions at different spatial scales are ~1.5–2× greater compared to official greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) estimates, with the production-segment as the dominant contributor to this divergence. Based on an updated synthesis of measurements from component-level field studies, we develop a new inventory-based model for CH 4 emissions, for the production-segment only, that agrees within error with recent syntheses of site-level field studies and allows for isolation of equipment-level contributions. We find that unintentional emissions from liquid storage tanks and other equipment leaks are the largest contributors to divergence with the GHGI. If our proposed method were adopted in the United States and other jurisdictions, inventory estimates could better guide CH 4 mitigation policy priorities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Renewable Opportunity in Mining

Renewable energy can provide mine operators with solutions to several of the challenges they face today, including energy costs, fossil fuel volatility, social license to operate, and meeting environmental, societal, and governance goals. However, the integration of wind, solar, storage, and other renewable technologies presents several technical barriers that are generally not well understood by the mining industry. Many of these barriers will require further research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) before we see higher levels of renewables adoption in the mining industry.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Abstract Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Increasing Electric Vehicle Adoption Among Disadvantaged Populations: A Case Study in Los Angeles

In striving for 100% carbon-free energy by 2035, ensuring equitable access and benefits across all populations is crucial. The shift toward clean energy and sustainable transport involves numerous challenges, requiring collective efforts from various stakeholders to develop inclusive strategies and policies. This includes community engagement, equitable funding for technology, and expansion of programs to foster an equitable energy transition. Additionally, while cities have initiated incentive programs to promote electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the effectiveness of these programs in ensuring affordable EV ownership for disadvantaged communities is yet to be fully understood. This paper, using Los Angeles as a case study, highlights the importance of evaluating and refining these incentive programs to enhance EV accessibility for marginalized groups.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Next-Generation Reverse Logistics Networks of Photovoltaic Recycling: Perspectives and Challenges

With the growing adoption of solar energy as a key component of the global energy transition and its new industrial policy (the Inflation Reduction Act and others), the United States is witnessing a significant increase in solar investments. This surge in installations and domestic and reshored manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels brings with it a pressing issue: the proper management of end-of-life (EoL) PV panels. As these panels are decommissioned, either due to reaching the end of their lifespans or due to breakage across the various stages of the forward supply chain, it becomes crucial to establish efficient reverse supply chain logistics systems to address the challenges associated with their disposal, while also unlocking the value of the inherent materials that are of critical value for other forward supply chains. This perspective article examines the challenges regarding EoL PV panels and relevant reverse supply chain and logistics networks, and proposes future research directions based on the gaps observed among academic research, industry, and policy-making challenges. We identify the main bottlenecks and hurdles including, among others, the lack of supportive regulations and absence of structured, optimized recycling infrastructure. To this end, it is proposed that the key to achieving a sustainable reverse supply chain network for solar PV panels lies in relentless end-to-end supply chain cost optimization efforts supported by enabling policies. Moreover, it is proposed that designing systematic decision-making modeling frameworks is vital for examining different possibilities and scenarios for state, region or nation-wide optimization of solar PV reverse supply chain networks. Indicative to this effect, we discuss the development of a Resource-Task-Network (RTN)-based model and demonstrate its application and benefits through a case study. We wrap up with conclusions and future research directions.

circular economy↗

Equitable Energy Metrics for Integration into Building Performance Standard Tracking Platforms: Preprint

Building Performance Standards (BPS) are being adopted globally and in the United States of America, where 14 different states and jurisdictions have a policy in place and many others are under development (Department of Energy (DOE) 2023). Accurate and equitable data sources are essential to make informed decisions about focusing investment on upgrading buildings to meet jurisdictional goals. There have been multiple new tools developed related to Energy Equity and Environmental Justice (EEEJ) and the resulting datasets need to be integrated into large building port-folios for quick access and better scalability. Integrating EEEJ data in a user-friendly format can help decision makers more quickly assess impacts and analyze the multitude of potentially significant metrics for which there is not yet consensus. In the U.S. and Canada, many BPS ordinances rely primarily on ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager (ESPM) to capture building characteristics and energy and water consumption data. These datasets can then be imported into city-specific building tracking tools like the Standard Energy Efficiency Data Platform (SEED). Crucially, BPS decision makers require an efficient means of identifying buildings in priority communities to effectively allocate resources and funding. This process must integrate seamlessly with existing jurisdictional toolsets for optimal utility. This paper will demonstrate, for the case of Washington D.C.'s (the District) data, a workflow that provides actionable data for building upgrade investment prioritization in disadvantaged communities.

BPS↗

Hierarchical analysis of US electric vehicle subsidies for carbon emission mitigation

Electric vehicle (EV) adoptions are promoted with subsidies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ground transportation. In this paper, a hierarchical analysis is presented on the potential of greenhouse gas emission mitigation via the electric vehicle subsidy policy at state level in the US, through research of environmental and economic fundamentals of electric vehicle operations, energy consumptions, battery degradation and service life. It has been found that restructuring the federal subsidies to promote EV adoption can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the US. The reduction costs of greenhouse gas emissions vary between $\$1167.44$/ton in Vermont to $\$6880.13$/ton in Wyoming. A case study reveals that 15.24 % more greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced with a tiered federal subsidy structure. The restructuring of subsidies will also encourage the adoption of clean energies in the grid fuel mix and drive technological advancements to extend the battery lifetime in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The missing correlation between the potential rate impacts of rooftop solar and the timing of state net metering policy revisions

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states—California and Hawaii—retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions

Data supporting the article “The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions” (https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/93543.pdf). Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states-California and Hawaii-retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗