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At least 163 records · Page 9

First lithium experiments in HIDRA and evidence of helium retention during quasi-steady-state stellarator plasma operations

Recent experiments in Hybrid Illinois Device for Research and Applications (HIDRA) have had operational discharges between t discharge = 60 and 1000 s using electron cyclotron resonant heating (ECRH) of the plasma. This means that quasi-steady-state plasma discharges reach conditions to study long-pulse plasma material interactions (PMIs). The newly commissioned HIDRA-Material Analysis Test-stand PMI diagnostic is used to place a drop of lithium onto a heated tungsten surface, transfer the sample in-vacuo and expose it in a helium plasma. Helium is of interest as there is an open question to whether lithium will be able to remove helium ash in real fusion devices. The introduction of the W-Li sample in HIDRA resulted in evaporation of lithium into the helium plasma during a 600 s pulse and caused a reduction of over 90% in neutral pressure during the discharge. It was also observed that the plasma density and temperature increased by over 2.5 times. Using spectroscopy and a helium collisional radiative model, the peak temperature and density of the helium plasma can be monitored during the discharge. During lithium evaporation, as significant lithium ionization occurs, there is a 85% drop in the HIDRA vessel neutral pressure, despite a constant flow rate of He gas. This reduction in neutral pressure is supported by spectroscopy data with corresponding reductions in He I line intensities (587 nm, 667 nm, 706 nm, and 728 nm), as well as those of other impurities. At one point in the discharge a lithium plasma is created, as indicated by an increase in Li + emission and a complete reduction in He + emission, but the electron density jumps from ne = 3 × 10 18 m –3 to over ne = 8 × 10 18 m –3 while the core temperature stays relatively constant between Te = 16 eV and 20 eV. Once lithium has completely evaporated from the sample and the majority of the ionized lithium has diffused from the plasma to the vessel walls, pressure and spectroscopy data paired with He collisional radiative model calculations shows a re-establishment of a helium plasma in a low recycling regime. In this regime, the density drops down to ne = 2 × 10 18 m –3 and the electron temperature increases from T e = 20 eV to over T e = 50 eV indicating an increase in helium heating efficiency. This is also indicated by the He+ emission re-establishing and having a higher intensity. Here, we show the results from the first lithium campaign in HIDRA. In the presence of lithium, and in particular when lithium ions are present, the helium disappears from the plasma via an as of yet unknown complex relationship that needs to be further studied. The most likely explanation is that the lithium ions are distributed around the vessel and able to trap helium to the surface turning HIDRA into a large gettering surface. These results have potential implications on future plasma facing component design using liquid lithium for impurity and recycling control using limiters and divertors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Active wall conditioning through boron powder injection compatible $\mathrm{ELM}$ control in $\mathrm{EAST}$

Real-time wall conditioning and edge-localized mode (ELM) suppression through real-time boron powder injection into high-confinement mode discharges of the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) have been investigated. The boron powder injection effectively conditioned the plasma-facing components, as shown by the reductions in low-Z and high-Z impurities and the global recycling level in the whole inner vessel, and suppressed the strong magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) activity in the plasma core. The improved wall conditions also resulted in an earlier transition from L- to H-mode. Boron powder injection also effectively suppressed ELM in the lower single null configuration with BT in the favorable direction while leaving the plasma density and stored energy largely unaffected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Control of the Plasma-Material Interface for Long Pulse Optimization in EAST Final Report

This final report describes the funded activity to understand and control the plasma-material interface to improve long pulse discharge control and performance on the EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) facility, located in Hefei, China. The primary focus of the research was long pulse recycling control via optimization of lithium (Li) delivery systems, including flowing liquid lithium plasma facing components (PFCs), because Li persists as the main wall conditioning technique. On EAST, lithium was primarily introduced using crucible evaporation, pellet injection, and gravitationally dropped powder. Overall, the introduction of lithium into the EAST plasma had strong and persistent effects on the ELM behavior during long pulse EAST discharges demonstrating overall improved performance. Additionally, a flexible impurity injection tool, a multi-chamber impurity powder dropper, was developed and deployed on EAST, to extend powder injection to elements other than Li. Finally, improvements to the Soft X-ray diagnostic system were introduced to improve measurements of impurity transport and electron temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

INFUSE:FLARED (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the final outcomes of the INFUSE:FLARED collaboration between Tokamak Energy (TE), the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), and the Department of Energy (DOE). The project aimed to experimentally determine and model the pumping, absorption, and separation behavior of deuterium in flowing liquid lithium under gas and plasma exposure conditions. The work supports the development of lithium-based plasma-facing components (PFCs) and tritium management strategies for next-generation fusion plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Lithium Divertor Targets and Walls for the ASTER Liquid Stellarator Reactor, Distributed Divertor

Stellarators may have advantages for certain liquid metal options as Plasma Facing Components (PFC) for divertor targets and first walls due to the wide range of possible magnetic configurations, which additionally are free of disruptions and fast field variations. In a previous work (V. Queral et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 52, 2024), a concept of stellarator reactor (ASTER-CP) based on swirling Li-molten salts and liquid lithium floating on the molten salt as PFC was presented. The divertor matters were not studied then and, thus, they are being studied and experimentally tested now. The ASTER-CP reactor concept, the initial liquid metal experiments and potential concepts for the ASTER-CP divertor and first wall are reported. Concerning the experiments, several small scale experiments of galinstan in a small rotating cylinder under magnetic field have been produced, including one experiment with high viscosity galinstan-mixture for increased thickness of layer. An experiment of floating lithium on the molten salt LiCl-PbCl2 gave fast volatilization/decomposition of the molten salt. Particularly for divertors, the traditional free-flow, Capillary Porous Systems and ‘divertorlets’ have been studied for application to ASTER-CP. Surface waves (hot spots), lack of enough surface fluid turbulence and excessive fluid speed are the main issues found in fast free-flow. The perhaps original concept of Distributed Divertor and Equi-power Surface is tentatively proposed and studied, taking advantage of stellarator fields and low recycling regime.

distributed divertor↗

Plasma edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in gyrokinetic simulations of negative triangularity plasmas

Gyrokinetic simulations in the long-wavelength or drift-kinetic limit are carried out of DIII-D inner-wall-limited (IWL) plasmas to investigate the effect of triangularity on edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) turbulence. The effect of neutral interactions and triangularity on plasma blobs is explored due to the impact blobs can have in setting the SOL width or introducing impurities through interactions with plasma-facing components. Seeded blob simulations with neutrals in shaped SOL scenarios demonstrate that increasing elongation, triangularity, or Shafranov shift decreases radial blob velocities, but neutral interactions have a minor effect. Fully turbulent simulations of DIII-D IWL plasmas include both open- and closed-field-line regions. The negative triangularity (NT) simulation has lower average core T e , lower normalized T e fluctuations, and lower fluxes, but a greater number of coherent structures (blobs) identified with increased size and velocity, on average. Density and electron temperature profiles are within a factor of 2 of experimental values. In conclusion, the increased trapped electron particle fraction in NT simulations is consistent with previous studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reconfiguration of an Electrothermal-Arc Plasma Source for In Situ PMI Studies

An electrothermal-arc plasma source (ET-Arc) has been developed to produce transient plasma heat and particle fluxes similar to those produced by edge localized modes onto divertor plasma-facing components in tokamaks. The ET-Arc utilizes a capacitive discharge to send current through a 4-mm-diameter, 9-cm-long capillary source liner. The liner material is ablated to form a high-velocity plasma jet that impacts the target downstream. With the current discharge circuit configuration, pulse lengths are 1 to 2 ms in duration and deliver heat fluxes of 0.25 to 2.1 GW m-2. The plasma was previously characterized with optical emission spectroscopy (OES) on helium emission lines. The He I line ratios were interpreted with collisional radiative analysis to calculate ne and Te. The electron temperature and electron density ranged from Te = 1 to 5 eV and ne = 1022 to 1028 electrons/m3, respectively.

Lindquist, Elizabeth G.↗

Toward Verification of RANS Simulations of the T-Tube Modular Divertor Using Large Eddy Simulations of Impinging Turbulent Plane Jets

Turbulent impinging jets have been proposed to cool high heat flux plasma-facing components such as the solid tungsten target plates of the divertor in long-pulse magnetic fusion energy reactors. In particular, the T-tube modular divertor, originally developed by the ARIES Team, consists of two concentric cylindrical tubes where helium flows through a slot in the inner tube, forming an approximately planar jet that impinges upon and cools the inner surface of the pressure boundary (namely, the outer tube) and the ~15-cm 2 plasma-facing W target. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that large eddy simulations (LESs) accurately simulate the thermal transport in canonical flows that comprise the cooling flow in the T-tube, as well as validate temperatures from LES with experimental measurements in a simplified T-tube geometry. Wall‑resolved LESs, validated by experimental data and verified by direct numerical simulations (DNSs), provide benchmark data for two canonical flows in the T‑tube, namely, planar impinging and wall jets, for Reynolds numbers Re B = 4 × 10 3 to 2 × 10 4 . Our LES results are within 4% to 12% root-mean-square error (RMSE) of surface Nusselt number distributions (Nu) from experiments and DNSs. The validated LES results are then used as the ground truth to evaluate four Reynolds‑averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closures, namely, the k‑ω SST, realizable k‑ε, GEKO, and γ‑SST models. The k‑ω SST model has the best overall performance in terms of heat transfer, giving surface Nu within 12% RMSE of the LES results for high‑ReB impinging jets and reduced overprediction in the wall‑jet region. The GEKO model with default constants has the next best performance, providing slightly better Nu predictions for low ReB impinging jets (versus k-ω SST) but worse overall performance over the full range of ReB studied here. The realizable k‑ε turbulence model significantly overestimates turbulence near the stagnation point, while the γ‑SST model suppresses near‑wall production, biasing the simulations toward simulating laminar surface heat transfer. Simulations of the simplified T‑tube show that LES and RANS simulations with the k‑ω SST model give nearly identical average heat transfer coefficients (HTCs) over the impingement surface. The realizable k‑ε model predicts significantly lower wall temperatures due to overestimation of HTC in the outlet flow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NSTX-U theory, modeling and analysis results

Here, the mission of the low aspect ratio spherical tokamak NSTX-U is to advance the physics basis and technical solutions required for optimizing the configuration of next-step steady-state tokamak fusion devices. NSTX-U will ultimately operate at up to 2 MA of plasma current and 1 T toroidal field on axis for 5 s, and has available up to 15 MW of neutral beam injection power at different tangency radii and 6 MW of high harmonic fast wave heating. With these capabilities NSTX-U will develop the physics understanding and control tools to ramp-up and sustain high performance fully non-inductive plasmas with large bootstrap fraction and enhanced confinement enabled via the low aspect ratio, high beta configuration. With its unique capabilities, NSTX-U research also supports ITER and other critical fusion development needs. Super-Alfvénic ions in beam-heated NSTX-U plasmas access energetic particle (EP) parameter space that is relevant for both α-heated conventional and low aspect ratio burning plasmas. NSTX-U can also generate very large target heat fluxes to test conventional and innovative plasma exhaust and plasma facing component solutions. This paper summarizes recent analysis, theory and modelling progress to advance the tokamak physics basis in the areas of macrostability and 3D fields, EP stability and fast ion transport, thermal transport and pedestal structure, boundary and plasma material interaction, RF heating, scenario optimization and real-time control.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Thermal and structural analysis of a new WEST reciprocating probe head with Titanium-Zirconium-Molybdenum armour material

The Tore Supra tokamak was transformed into an X-point divertor fusion device in the frame of the WEST (W-for tungsten-Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) project, launched in support of the ITER tungsten divertor strategy. WEST began operation in 2017. A new reciprocating probe head, equipped with a Titanium-Zirconium-Molybdenum (TZM) heat shield, was recently built and operated on WEST during the C9 Campaign in early 2024. TZM was chosen as armour material for its very good mechanical properties between 700 °C and 1400 °C. This material was already extensively used for probe heads and other plasma facing components on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. Here, this paper presents the design of the new WEST probe head. It is equipped with tungsten filaments that can be heated to emit electrons and provide a direct measurement of the plasma potential in the scrape-off layer, and it is also equipped with a pair of Langmuir probes. The probe plunges vertically into the plasma, reaches its maximum dive depth, then returns to its protected resting position in about 0.25 s. Thermal loads are calculated using as input the thermal properties of TZM and radial profiles of the heat flux measured in the past by other reciprocating probes, and scaled upwards to the expected heat loads in the WEST scrape-off layer. An analytical estimation of Electromagnetic (EM) loads will also be presented, as well as a thermal and structural analysis of the probe for 15 cycles at maximum plunge depth. The probe is observed by an infrared camera. Comparisons between the heat flux deduced by the Langmuir probe and the infrared radiance of the probe housing during plasma exposure are finally presented.

Diagnostic↗

Power and particle exhaust for the ARC fusion power plant

To successfully show that fusion is an attractive energy source, the ARCTM fusion power plant will need to operate with a robust, integrated power and particle exhaust solution. To maximise ARC’s fusion power output while avoiding excessive erosion of the plasma-facing components, we will need to radiatively dissipate most of the power crossing the last-closed flux surface, injecting radiating impurities such as argon or neon to access divertor detachment. Divertor detachment will need to be integrated with a high-performance core plasma, and with efficient impurity pumping to prevent the accumulation of helium ash in the core. To access and control detachment in high-performance plasmas, we have designed ARC with up–down-symmetric divertors, with secondary X-points in long, tightly baffled outer legs. Using a core-edge modelling workflow, we predict that with this divertor design, ARC will access detachment with modest argon seeding in the divertor (c Ar,div ∼0.9%), which should have minimal impact on the core ( Z eff,core <0.5) for reasonable argon enrichment (c Ar,div /c Ar,core =6). Due to the high predicted divertor neutral pressure (p div ∼20 Pa), we predict that ARC will sufficiently pump helium to limit ash accumulation in the core (c He,core <2%) for a helium enrichment of c He,div /c He,core =0.4. ARC’s divertor design is expected to increase the stability of a detachment front in the outer divertor leg, helping to prevent divertor reattachment during smaller heat-flux transients such as scrape-off-layer filaments associated with the quasi-continuous exhaust regime. However, this buffering will not be sufficient to prevent divertor reattachment during large type-I edge-localised modes (ELMs), and as such these will need to be avoided on ARC. Experiments on SPARC will be used to select an integrated scenario which avoids or mitigates type-I-ELMs while maintaining access to detachment, good core fusion performance and sufficient impurity exhaust. SPARC experiments will also be used to finalise ARC’s divertor design, by studying the impact of magnetic and first-wall geometry on detachment stability, impurity enrichment and neutral baffling under conditions similar to those expected for ARC. In conclusion, our analysis finds that ARC will have a viable power and particle exhaust solution which is compatible with high-power operations, and this solution will be validated in experiments on SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Novel angular velocity estimation technique for plasma filaments

Magnetic field aligned filaments such as blobs and edge localized mode filaments carry significant amounts of heat and particles to the plasma facing components and they decrease their lifetime. The dynamics of these filaments determine at least a part of the heat and particle loads. These dynamics can be characterized by their translation and rotation. In this paper, we present an analysis method novel for fusion plasmas, which can estimate the angular velocity of the filaments on frame-by-frame time resolution. After pre-processing, the frames are two-dimensional (2D) Fourier-transformed, then the resulting 2D Fourier magnitude spectra are transformed to log-polar coordinates, and finally the 2D cross-correlation coefficient function (CCCF) is calculated between the consecutive frames. The displacement of the CCCF’s peak along the angular coordinate estimates the angle of rotation of the most intense structure in the frame. Further, the proposed angular velocity estimation method is tested and validated for its accuracy and robustness by applying it to rotating Gaussian-structures. The method is also applied to gas-puff imaging measurements of filaments in National Spherical Torus Experiment plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Preliminary proof-of-concept of real-time divertor heat flux control from infrared cameras with nitrogen injection in the DIII-D tokamak

In future tokamak reactors like ITER and the Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP), real-time feedback control of heat flux to the plasma-facing components (PFC) will be critical for steady-state operation. This work presents the first experimental demonstration of real-time divertor heat flux estimation with infrared thermography and feedback control with impurity seeding on the DIII-D tokamak. The flexible infrastructure of the Plasma Control System (PCS) on DIII-D makes this new capability possible. The PCS software runs on a gateway computer system, and five real-time compute nodes. An array of low latency streaming digitizers from D-TACQ Solutions connects to these real-time computers to collect and process data, and send commands to actuators during plasma discharges. This system handles the signal IO from the tokamak and allows the PCS to utilize the diagnostic data necessary to perform control in real-time. Feedback control on heat flux was accomplished by feeding infrared camera data from the “Infrared TV” (IRTV) camera to a custom-developed User Datagram Protocol (UDP) server. This server transmits infrared data to a newly developed PCS algorithm that estimates the heat flux to PFC. Here, a proportional integral derivative (PID) controller minimizes the error between a heat flux reference and the real-time estimate by injecting nitrogen gas into the divertor.

Algorithm development↗

Suppression of Helium Bubble Nucleation in Beryllium Exposed Tungsten Surfaces.

One of the most severe obstacles to increasing the longevity of tungsten-based plasma facing components, such as divertor tiles, is the surface deterioration driven by sub-surface helium bubble formation and rupture. Supported by experimental observations at PISCES, this work uses molecular dynamics simulations to identify the microscopic mechanisms underlying suppression of helium bubble formation by the introduction of plasma-borne beryllium. Simulations of the initial surface material (crystalline W), early-time Be exposure (amorphous W-Be) and final WBe 2 intermetallic surfaces were used to highlight the effect of Be. Significant differences in He retention, depth distribution and cluster size were observed in the cases with beryllium present. Helium resided much closer to the surface in the Be cases with nearly 80% of the total helium inventory located within the first 2 nm. Moreover, coarsening of the He depth profile due to bubble formation is suppressed due to a one-hundred fold decrease in He mobility in WBe2, relative to crystalline W. This is further evidenced by the drastic reduction in He cluster sizes even when it was observed that both the amorphous W-Be and WBe 2 intermetallic phases retain nearly twice as much He during cumulative implantation studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effect of metastable atomic levels in neutral tungsten for erosion and impurity transport applications

Long-lived metastable states in neutral tungsten are shown to potentially impact measurements of tungsten erosion from plasma facing components. Time-dependent collisional radiative modeling of neutral tungsten is used to analyze the role of these states in tungsten emission and ionization. The large number of non-quasistatic atomic states in neutral tungsten can take on the order of milliseconds to reach equilibrium, depending on plasma conditions, causing erosion measurements to be affected by the metastable populations. Previous measurements using the 400.88 nm tungsten emission line could be affected by these non-quasistatic metastable effects. Therefore, a scheme for measuring the relative metastable fractions is proposed through simultaneous observation of multiple ultraviolet spectral lines of neutral W. The accuracy of gross erosion measurements could potentially be increased by inclusion of these previously unconsidered metastable effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of high-performance long-pulse discharge in KSTAR

High-performance long-pulse plasma operation is essential for producing economically viable fusion energy in tokamak devices. To achieve such discharges in KSTAR, firstly, the rapid increase in the temperature of plasma-facing components was mitigated. The temperature increase of the poloidal limiter, especially, was associated with beam-driven fast ion orbit loss and the discrepancy of the equilibrium reconstructed with heated magnetic probes of signal drift. The fast ions lost to the poloidal limiter were reduced by optimizing the plasma shape and the composition of neutral beam injection (NBI). This nonlinear signal drift was successfully reduced by a new thermal shielding protector on the magnetic probes. Secondly, a lower loop voltage approach was implemented to reduce a poloidal flux consumption rate. A plasma current of 400 kA and a line-averaged electron density of ~2.0 × 10 19 m –3 were chosen by considering the L–H power threshold, fast ion orbit loss, and beam shine-through power loss for low loop voltage in KSTAR. In addition, the application of electron cyclotron heating also helped maintain the plasma with low loop voltage (~25 mV) by enhancing the NBI-driven current and achieving a high poloidal beta (β P ) state. KSTAR has achieved a long pulse (~90 s) operation with the high performance of β P $\leqslant$ 2.7, thermal energy confinement enhancement factor (H 98y2 ) ~ 1.1, and fraction of non-inductive current (f NI ) $\leqslant$ 0.96. Still, gradual degradation of the plasma performance has been observed over time in the discharges. In one of the long-pulse discharges, β P reduced by ~18% over the time of ~8τ R (current relaxation time, τ R ~5 s) and ~1067τ E,th (thermal energy confinement time, τ E,th ~45 ms). The degradation may be closely associated with weak, yet growing, and persistent toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes and their effect on fast ion confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗