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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale planning model for robust urban drought response

Increasingly severe droughts are straining municipal water resources and jeopardizing urban water security, but uncertainty in their duration, frequency, and intensity challenges drought planning and response. We develop the Drought Resilient Interscale Portfolio Planning model (DRIPP) to generate optimal planning responses to urban drought. DRIPP is a generalizable multi-scale framework for optimizing dynamic planning strategies of long-term infrastructure deployment and short-term drought response. It integrates climate and hydrological variability with high-fidelity representations of urban water distribution, available technology options, and demand reduction measures to yield robust and cost-effective water supply portfolios that are location-specific. We apply DRIPP in Santa Barbara, California to assess how least cost water supply portfolios vary under different drought scenarios and identify portfolios that are robust across drought scenarios. In Santa Barbara, we find that drought intensity, not duration or frequency, drives cost increases, reliability risk, and regret of overbuilding infrastructure. Under uncertain drought conditions, a diversified technology portfolio that includes both rapidly deployable, decentralized technologies alongside larger centralized technologies minimizes water supply cost while maintaining high robustness to climate uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Joint Planning of Electricity Transmission and Hydrogen Transportation Networks

The abundance and uneven distribution of renewable energy might cause congestion and curtailment in electric power systems. Transmission expansions can potentially alleviate transmission congestion and reduce renewable energy curtailment. On the other hand, with the substantial cost reduction of electrolyzer technology and the continuing rise of hydrogen demand, converting surplus renewable energy to hydrogen provides synergistic benefits to power and hydrogen systems, but consequently requires joint planning of the two systems. To this end, we propose a joint planning approach for power transmission and hydrogen transportation networks to coordinately optimize the investment and operation of power and hydrogen infrastructure. In our proposed model, detailed truck routing, pipeline, and hydrogen storage are formulated to quantify the flexibility of hydrogen transportation system. A robust joint planning approach is also proposed to address various uncertainties from renewable energy, electric load, and hydrogen demand. Furthermore, our numerical simulations show that the proposed joint planning model can save the total system cost, reduce renewable energy curtailment, and increase the utilization level of transmission lines.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2005

Alternatives to Re-Planning: Methods for Plan Re-Evaluation at Runtime

Current planning algorithms have difficulty handling the complexity that is due to an increase in domain uncertainty, and especially in the case of multi-dimensional continuous spaces. Therefore, they produce plans that do not take into account numerous situations that can occur at runtime, such as faults or other changes in the planning domain itself. Thus there is a gap between the plan generation and the reality experienced at runtime. Here we present two methods that allow the plan conditionals to be revised w.r.t. uncertainty on the system as estimated at runtime.

Benazera, Emmanuel↗

NASA NTRS2005

Enabling Autonomous Rover Science through Dynamic Planning and Scheduling

This paper describes how dynamic planning and scheduling techniques can be used onboard a rover to autonomously adjust rover activities in support of science goals. These goals could be identified by scientists on the ground or could be identified by onboard data-analysis software. Several different types of dynamic decisions are described, including the handling of opportunistic science goals identified during rover traverses, preserving high priority science targets when resources, such as power, are unexpectedly over-subscribed, and dynamically adding additional, ground-specified science targets when rover actions are executed more quickly than expected. After describing our specific system approach, we discuss some of the particular challenges we have examined to support autonomous rover decision-making. These include interaction with rover navigation and path-planning software and handling large amounts of uncertainty in state and resource estimations.

planning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Site Management Strategies for the Hanford Central Plateau Groundwater

Adaptive site management (ASM) is a systematic and iterative management approach that can be used to expedite the remediation of large and/or complex sites. ASM is defined as a formal and systematic project or site management approach centered on rigorous site planning and a firm understanding of site conditions and uncertainties, using science and technology to routinely re-evaluate and prioritize site remedial actions and characterization activities. The goal of the approach is to create a framework of structured and continuous planning, implementation, and assessment processes that accommodates new information and changing site conditions to develop effective and efficient cleanup approaches that achieves the required outcome(s) while optimizing costs, cleanup timeframe, and performance. Central to ASM is an evolving conceptual site model (CSM). Over time, incremental reductions in uncertainty associated with the CSM will occur, while supporting continued progress toward site cleanup and closure through remedy optimization and evaluation. ASM has the potential to expedite cleanup for the Central Plateau area at Hanford through a planned and systematic approach for reducing uncertainty with targeted characterization activities, while continuing remediation activities that advance cleanup for key risk-driving contaminants. A core component of cleanup within the Central Plateau is the 200 West Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system. Even with an active P&T remedy, uncertainty exists with respect to plume distributions, total mass in the aquifer, and currently known continuing sources. Additional uncertainty is associated with multiple contaminant source locations in the vadose zone, which have the potential to create new groundwater plumes in the absence of any source control measures, although not all contaminant fluxes to groundwater will result in contaminant concentrations above cleanup levels. Collectively, these uncertainties need to be addressed in the CSM to support effective and efficient site progress toward cleanup goal(s). Other nontechnical factors that may warrant an ASM approach at the Hanford Central Plateau are associated with the formation of operable units (OUs) used to manage cleanup. With the exception of the 200-ZP-1 OU, the three remaining groundwater OUs only have interim action records of decision. Nine vadose zone source area OUs are also in the early stages of the remedial investigation and feasibility study process, with pending characterization and technology identification activities. A set of proposed site objectives for the Central Plateau are provided in this document as an initial consideration/example and basis for discussion for ASM implementation. These example site objectives were selected with the goal of maintaining protectiveness at the Columbia River through confinement of contaminant plumes within an administratively controlled area below existing surface waste sites and waste disposal facilities. Although site decision makers and regulators need to provide concurrence, these site objectives are used in this document to describe the elements of an ASM approach, including selection of interim objectives and a long-term adaptive management plan. Interim objectives are also defined to yield measurable incremental progress toward the overall site goals. This document identifies initial technical considerations for developing an ASM framework for the Central Plateau cleanup decisions. These considerations are intended to facilitate more specific decisions, such as objectives, near- and long-term actions, and performance metrics, to develop an overall approach that maintains protectiveness but recognizes the uncertainty, long timeframe, and technical challenges that need to be considered in selecting, implementing, and managing remediation at the Hanford Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Resilient and Ready to Used and Useful: Managing Temporal and Locational Uncertainty in Electrification, DER Adoption, and Climate Adaptation

Grid planning decisions involve weighing risks against benefits. The best decisions will facilitate development of electrical infrastructure that minimizes risk and maximizes benefits. With the rapidly evolving energy landscape, today's planner must discern new loads and demand cycles; embrace the operational complexity of climate risk; revise settled standards; and anticipate and manage the system impacts of distributed energy resource (DER) adoption. Only by managing the combined uncertainty of these dynamic processes can a planner hope to make effective decisions. Our analysis focuses on the management of temporal and locational uncertainty, and particularly on the risks presented to customers by the mismanagement of the factors that are the sources of these uncertainties.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainties in Coastal Ocean Color Products: Impacts of Spatial Sampling

With increasing demands for ocean color (OC) products with improved accuracy and well characterized, per-retrieval uncertainty budgets, it is vital to decompose overall estimated errors into their primary components. Amongst various contributing elements (e.g., instrument calibration, atmospheric correction, inversion algorithms) in the uncertainty of an OC observation, less attention has been paid to uncertainties associated with spatial sampling. In this paper, we simulate MODIS (aboard both Aqua and Terra) and VIIRS OC products using 30 m resolution OC products derived from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat-8, to examine impacts of spatial sampling on both cross-sensor product intercomparisons and in-situ validations of R(sub rs) products in coastal waters. Various OLI OC products representing different productivity levels and in-water spatial features were scanned for one full orbital-repeat cycle of each ocean color satellite. While some view-angle dependent differences in simulated Aqua-MODIS and VIIRS were observed, the average uncertainties (absolute) in product intercomparisons (due to differences in spatial sampling) at regional scales are found to be 1.8%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 4.3%, 2.7%, 1.8%, and 4% for the R(sub rs)(443), R(sub rs)(482), R(sub rs)(561), R(sub rs)(655), Chla, K(sub d)(482), and b(sub bp)(655) products, respectively. It is also found that, depending on in-water spatial variability and the sensor's footprint size, the errors for an in-situ validation station in coastal areas can reach as high as +/- 18%. We conclude that a) expected biases induced by the spatial sampling in product intercomparisons are mitigated when products are averaged over at least 7 km × 7 km areas, b) VIIRS observations, with improved consistency in cross-track spatial sampling, yield more precise calibration/validation statistics than that of MODIS, and c) use of a single pixel centered on in-situ coastal stations provides an optimal sampling size for validation efforts. These findings will have implications for enhancing our understanding of uncertainties in ocean color retrievals and for planning of future ocean color missions and the associated calibration/validation exercises.

Coastal ocean color↗

DOE OSTI2023

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Owens, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advancing the Theory of Nuclear Data Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation covers a few key topics in relation to advancing the theory of nuclear data evaluations. First it targets and highlights the NCSP mission and vision along with the five-year plan. This lecture focuses upon the uncertainty quantification and SAMMY modernization. This presentation covers theory, and a framework is provided. The presentation concludes with goals, outlooks, and accomplishments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Terminal navigation analysis for the 1980 comet Encke slow flyby mission

The initial results of a terminal navigation analysis for the proposed 1980 solar electric slow flyby mission to the comet Encke are presented. The navigation technique employs onboard optical measurements with the scientific television camera, groundbased observations of the spacecraft and comet, and groundbased orbit determination and thrust vector update computation. The knowledge and delivery accuracies of the spacecraft are evaluated as a function of the important parameters affecting the terminal navigation. These include optical measurement accuracy, thruster noise level, duration of the planned terminal coast period, comet ephemeris uncertainty, guidance initiation time, guidance update frequency, and optical data rate.

Jacobson, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of supersonic STOVL technology

The purpose of this paper is to document the status of supersonic STOVL aircraft technology. The major focus is the presentation of summaries of pertinent aspects of supersonic STOVL technology, such as justification for STOVL aircraft, current designs and their recognized areas of uncertainty, recent research programs, current activities, plans, etc. The remainder of the paper is an evaluation of the performance differential between a current supersonic STOVL design and three production (or near production) fighters, one of them the AV-8B. The results indicate that there is not a large range difference between a STOL aircraft and a STOVL aircraft, and that other aspects of performance, such as field performance or combat maneuverability, may more than make up for this decrement.

Kidwell, G. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Adaptive control of space based robot manipulators

For space based robots in which the base is free to move, motion planning and control is complicated by uncertainties in the inertial properties of the manipulator and its load. A new adaptive control method is presented for space based robots which achieves globally stable trajectory tracking in the presence of uncertainties in the inertial parameters of the system. A partition is made of the fifteen degree of freedom system dynamics into two parts: a nine degree of freedom invertible portion and a six degree of freedom noninvertible portion. The controller is then designed to achieve trajectory tracking of the invertible portion of the system. This portion consist of the manipulator joint positions and the orientation of the base. The motion of the noninvertible portion is bounded, but unpredictable. This portion consist of the position of the robot's base and the position of the reaction wheel.

Walker, Michael W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Measuring the Performance and Intelligence of Systems: Proceedings of the 2002 PerMIS Workshop

Contents include the following: Performance Metrics; Performance of Multiple Agents; Performance of Mobility Systems; Performance of Planning Systems; General Discussion Panel 1; Uncertainty of Representation I; Performance of Robots in Hazardous Domains; Modeling Intelligence; Modeling of Mind; Measuring Intelligence; Grouping: A Core Procedure of Intelligence; Uncertainty in Representation II; Towards Universal Planning/Control Systems.

Messina, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Role of Trust and Interaction in Global Positioning System Related Accidents

The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses a network of satellites to calculate the position of a receiver over time. This technology has revolutionized a wide range of safety-critical industries and leisure applications. These systems provide diverse benefits; supplementing the users existing navigation skills and reducing the uncertainty that often characterizes many route planning tasks. GPS applications can also help to reduce workload by automating tasks that would otherwise require finite cognitive and perceptual resources. However, the operation of these systems has been identified as a contributory factor in a range of recent accidents. Users often come to rely on GPS applications and, therefore, fail to notice when they develop faults or when errors occur in the other systems that use the data from these systems. Further accidents can stem from the over confidence that arises when users assume automated warnings will be issued when they stray from an intended route. Unless greater attention is paid to the role of trust and interaction in GPS applications then there is a danger that we will see an increasing number of these failures as positioning technologies become integral in the functioning of increasing numbers of applications.

Johnson, Chris W.↗