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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRS2021

Role of Cyber-Physical Testing in Developing Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitats

Extraterrestrial long-term habitat systems (henceforth referred to as habitat systems) require groundbreaking technological advances to overcome the extreme demands introduced by isolation and challenging environments. A habitat system must operate as intended under continuous disruptive conditions. Designing for the demands that challenging environments will place on habitat systems (e.g., wild temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, meteoroid impacts, vibrations, and solar particle events) represents one of the greatest challenges in this endeavor. This engineering problem necessitates that we design and manage habitat systems to be resilient. System resilience requires a comprehensive approach that accounts for disruptions through the design process and adapts to them in operation. As the habitat system evolves—growing in physical size, complexity, population, and connectivity—and diversifies in operations, it must continue to be safe and resilient. In this endeavor, we should take advantage of lessons learned in developing civil infrastructure responsive to catastrophic natural hazards, autonomous robotics platforms, smart buildings, cyber-physical testing, complex systems, and diagnostics and prognostics for intelligent health management. This study highlights the importance of system resilience and cyber-physical testing to address the grand challenge of developing habitat systems.

Public health and safety↗

NASA NTRS2013

Metric Learning to Enhance Hyperspectral Image Segmentation

Unsupervised hyperspectral image segmentation can reveal spatial trends that show the physical structure of the scene to an analyst. They highlight borders and reveal areas of homogeneity and change. Segmentations are independently helpful for object recognition, and assist with automated production of symbolic maps. Additionally, a good segmentation can dramatically reduce the number of effective spectra in an image, enabling analyses that would otherwise be computationally prohibitive. Specifically, using an over-segmentation of the image instead of individual pixels can reduce noise and potentially improve the results of statistical post-analysis. In this innovation, a metric learning approach is presented to improve the performance of unsupervised hyperspectral image segmentation. The prototype demonstrations attempt a superpixel segmentation in which the image is conservatively over-segmented; that is, the single surface features may be split into multiple segments, but each individual segment, or superpixel, is ensured to have homogenous mineralogy.

Thompson, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Decision Manifold Approximation for Physics-Based Simulations

With the recent surge of success in big-data driven deep learning problems, many of these frameworks focus on the notion of architecture design and utilizing massive databases. However, in some scenarios massive sets of data may be difficult, and in some cases infeasible, to acquire. In this paper we discuss a trajectory-based framework that quickly learns the underlying decision manifold of binary simulation classifications while judiciously selecting exploratory target states to minimize the number of required simulations. Furthermore, we draw particular attention to the simulation prediction application idealized to the case where failures in simulations can be predicted and avoided, providing machine intelligence to novice analysts. We demonstrate this framework in various forms of simulations and discuss its efficacy.

Wong, Jay Ming↗

NASA NTRS2018

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using a Regression Forest Model

Atmospheric chemistry is central to many environmental issues such as air pollution, climate change, and stratospheric ozone loss. Chemistry Transport Models (CTM) are a central tool for understanding these issues, whether for research or for forecasting. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a CTM. We have investigated a machine learning approach to solving the differential equations instead of solving them numerically. From an annual simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, centennial scale climate simulations etc. We discuss our approches' speed and accuracy, and highlight some potential future directions for improving this approach.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Air Quality Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model.We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry.This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O (sup 1) D (Deuterium) to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS1988

The promise of astrophysical observation conducted from space

The roles of instrumentation and the Space Station in addressing the most important questions in astrophysics are considered. The growth in the power of astronomical instruments over the past several decades is reviewed. Progress that can be made in the coming decades in understanding the origin of the universe, in learning more about quasars, black holes, and the fundamental laws of physics, and in possibly detecting other planetary systems and extraterrestrial life is considered.

Harwit, Martin↗

NASA NTRS2002

CloudSat system engineering: techniques that point to a future success

Over the past three years the CloutSat Project, a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder mission to provide from space the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, has implemented a successful project system engineering approach. Techniques learned through heuristic reasoning of past project events and professional experience were applied along with select methods recently touted to increase effectiveness without compromising effiency.

CloudSat system engineering project management↗

NASA NTRS2012

Summer Final Report

The summer of 2012 has been filled with many memorable events and activities. As an intern, I had responsibilities that had to be fulfilled. My tour of duty was completed as an administrative student trainee in the Information Technology and Communications Services Business Office (IT-A). In accordance with the Business Objectives and Agreement of the Business Office and my performance plan, I was to provide business office support, improve business, project management, and technical work processes. With this being stated, I supported a project called "The Big Move Project" (TBMP), which will take course over the next several years. The Big Move Project is the planning of the Information Technology (IT) Directorate's relocation to various buildings in the course of upcoming years, when designs and the building of Central Campus have been completed. Working directly with my supervisor and the project manager, I was responsible for gathering both administrative and operational area requirements for the Information Technology (IT) Directorate, along with its outsourced support and contractors, such as IMCS, NICS, and ACES. My first action was to create rubrics that will serve as a guideline for the information that should be given by each branch of IT. After receiving that information via a few KAITS actions, I was able to start the consolidation process, and begin working on a presentation. A SharePoint was created shortly after for others to view the progression of the project, which I managed. During the consolidation ofthis information, I would occasionally present to the IT Deputy Director and IT Chiefs. The draft of this presentation was shown to employees of Center Operations (T A) and stakeholders-IT Chief Officers and contractor managers-in the relocation of IT to make them aware of what requirements must be met that will enable IT to be accommodated appropriately in the design of Central Campus Phase 11-the time in which IT and its contractors are scheduled to be relocated. Besides supporting TBMP, I also supported the Section 508 Policy Compliance Coordinator, R. Liang. Section 508 is a policy that requires employers to implement accessibility assurance of information and technology to disabled communities. On Thursday, July 19, 2012, I was able to go to Camp Boggy Creek-a camp for disabled children-for an education outreach, in collaboration with the Education Office. We shared with them information about how astronauts live and work in space, they were able to ride hovercrafts, build paper rockets, and then launch them outside. Although this outreach was quite fun with the kids at the camp, this was a learning opportunity to gain some insight to those with cognitive and physical disabilities, the problems they typically face, and in tum, how to accommodate those with disabilities in the work environment. In the process of implementing accessibility and Section 508 compliance, I attended various teleconferences, did field runs to supply closed-caption call phones to employees with limited hearing, and helped with the development of the charter ofthe Section 508 Compliance Working Group.

Makidi, Nitou↗

NASA NTRS2018

K-Means Cluster Study for Radiofrequency Propagation Characterization

The objective of this study is to design a simple method for mining radio frequency (RF) propagation data. The study explored the characteristics of a large dataset of propagation experiments conducted over the span of years and using several ground stations around the world. Furthermore, this study developed simple predictive models that can be used for link characterization and overall propagation behavior description, without the need for physical measurements on-site. It is understood that such statistical learning has several drawbacks in terms of accuracy and precision. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set in a way never explored before in an attempt to create useful tools that reduce cost, time and risk. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set. Cosine distance was used as a method to determine the optimal number for clustering each feature. Dependence and independence analysis was performed to explore intra and inter-sensitivity between the presented features, with respect to each other and time. Several predicative models were generated and evaluated with respect to a test set to assess a measure of prediction accuracy and precision. A simple method for data analysis was developed and tested as the basis for further studies and future refinement to produce optimal performing models.

Cognitive↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts

Systems Health Managent↗

NASA NTRS1992

What we learn about cooling flows through the study of the 10,000 K gas in clusters

The physical properties of the emission-line nebulae associated with central dominant galaxies in clusters are explored within the context of standard cooling-flow models of the hot ICM. It is pointed out that the properties of the 10,000 K gas are inconsistent with simple theories in which this gas has accreted out of the hot ICM in thermal instabilities within a standard cooling flow atmosphere. Several possible ramifications for our understanding of the properties of clusters and the hot intracluster medium are discussed.

Baum, Stefi A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Model Analysis: Evaluation on Cyber-Physical Challenge Problems

We present a framework for introducing high-level requirement specifications in the automated analysis of dataflow models. By integrating the FRET requirements elicitation tool with the CoCoSim analyzer, our framework enables the analysis of hierarchical Simulink models against requirements written in a restricted English language. More precisely, we support: automatic extraction of Simulink model information and association of high-level requirements with target model signals and components; translation of temporal logic formulas into synchronous dataflow CoCoSpec specifications as well as Simulink monitors; and interpretation of counterexamples produced by the analysis both at the requirement and model level. The features provided by our framework are generic and can be used to integrate other requirements elicitation and Simulink/Lustre analysis tools. We report on the lessons learned from the application of our approach to the Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical, aerospace-inspired challenge problems. For the analysis, we used the Kind2, Zustre, and Simulink Design Verifier (SLDV) tools.

Simulink↗