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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Electro-Thermal Simulation Studies of SiC Junction Diodes Containing Screw Dislocations Under High Reverse-Bias Operation

The objective of this work was to conduct a modeling study of SiC P-N junction diodes operating under high reverse biased conditions. Analytical models and numerical simulation capabilities were to be developed for self-consistent electro-thermal analysis of the diode current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. Data from GRC indicate that screw dislocations are unavoidable in large area SiC devices, and lead to changes in the SiC diode electrical response characteristics under high field conditions. For example, device instability and failures linked to internal current filamentation have been observed. The physical origin of these processes is not well understood, and quantitative projections of the electrical behavior under high field and temperature conditions are lacking. Thermal calculations for SiC devices have not been reported in the literature either. So estimates or projections of peak device temperatures and power limitations do not exist. This numerical study and simulation analysis was aimed at resolving some of the above issues. The following tasks were successfully accomplished: (1) Development of physically based models using one- and two-dimensional drift-diffusion theory for the transport behavior and I-V characteristics; (2) One- and two-dimensional heat flow to account for internal device heating. This led to calculations of the internal temperature profiles, which in turn, were used to update the electrical transport parameters for a self-consistent analysis. The temperature profiles and the peak values were thus obtainable for a given device operating condition; (3) Inclusion of traps assumed to model the presence of internal screw dislocations running along the longitudinal direction; (4) Predictions of the operating characteristics with and without heating as a function of applied bias with and without traps. Both one and two-dimensional cases were implemented; (5) Assessment of device stability based on the operating characteristics. The presence of internal non-uniformities, particularly filamentary structures, was probed and demonstrated; (6) Cause and physical origins of filamentary behavior and unstable I-V characteristics were made transparent; (7) It was demonstrated that diodes containing defects would be more prone to thermal breakdown associated with the temperature dependent decrease in the thermal conductivity; and (8) Finally, negative differential resistance (S-shaped NDR) which can potential lead to device instability and filamentary behavior was shown to occur for diodes containing a line of defects such as could be associated with a screw dislocation line.

Joshi, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Nontriggered Burst Supplement to the BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Catalogs

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory detects gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with a real-time burst detection (or "trigger") system running onboard the spacecraft. Under some circumstances, however, a GRB may not activate the on-board burst trigger. For example, the burst may be too faint to exceed the on-board detection threshold, or it may occur while the on-board burst trigger is disabled for technical reasons. This paper describes a catalog of 873 "nontriggered" GRBs that were detected in a search of the archival continuous data from BATSE recorded between 1991 December 9.0 and 1997 December 17.0. For each burst, the catalog gives an estimated source direction, duration, peak flux, and fluence. Similar data are presented for 50 additional bursts of unknown origin that were detected in the 25-50 keV range; these events may represent the low-energy "tail" of the GRB spectral distribution. This catalog increases the number of GRBs detected with BATSE by 48% during the time period covered by the search.

Kommers, Jefferson M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Serendipitous Detections of XTE J1906+09 with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

The 89 s X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+09 was discovered during Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of SGR 1900+14 in 1996. Because of monitoring campaigns of SGR 1900+14, XTE J1906+09 was also monitored regularly in 1996 September, 1998 May-June, 1998 August-1999 July, and 2000 March-2001 January. A search for pulsations resulted in detections of only the two previously reported outbursts in 1996 September and 1998 August-September. Pulsed flux upper limits for the rest of the observations show that XTE J1906+09 is a transient X-ray pulsar and likely has a Be star companion. The RXTE all-sky monitor did not reveal XTE J1906+09. Pulse-timing analysis of the second outburst discovered a sinusoidal signature in the pulse frequencies that is likely produced by an orbital periastron passage. Fits to pulse phases using an orbital model and quadratic phase model have chi(exp 2) minima at orbital periods of 26-30 days for fixed mass functions of 5, 10, 15, and 20 solar masses. The pulse shape showed energy- and intensity-dependent variations. Pulse-phase spectroscopy quantified the energy-dependent variations. The phase-averaged spectrum used the pulse minimum spectrum as the background spectrum to eliminate effects from SGR 1900+14 and the Galactic ridge and was well fitted by an absorbed power law with a high-energy cutoff with column density N(sub H) = 6 +/- 1 x 10(exp 22)/sq cm, a photon index of 1.01 +/- 0.08, cutoff energy E(sub cut) = 11 +/- 1 keV, and e-folding energy E(sub fold) = 19 +/- 4 keV. Estimated 2-10 keV peak fluxes, corrected for contributions from the Galactic ridge and SGR 1900+14, are 6 x l0(exp -12) and 1.1 x 10(exp -10) ergs/sq cm/s for the 1996 and 1998 outbursts, respectively. XTE J1906+09 may be part of an unusual class of Be/X-ray binaries that do not lie on the general spin period versus orbital period correlation with the majority of Be/X-ray binaries.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Investigating SLIM Disk Solutions FOR HLX-1 IN ESO 243-49

The hyperluminous X-ray source HLX-1 in the galaxy ESO 243-49, currently the best intermediate-mass blackhole (BH) candidate, displays spectral transitions similar to those observed in Galactic BH binaries, but with aluminosity 100-1000 times higher. We investigated the X-ray properties of this unique source by fitting multiepochdata collected by Swift, XMM-Newton, and Chandra with a disk model computing spectra for a wide rangeof sub- and super-Eddington accretion rates assuming a non-spinning BH and a face-on disk (i=0 deg.). Under theseassumptions we find that the BH in HLX-1 is in the intermediate-mass range (approximately 2 x 10(exp 4) solar mass) and the accretionflow is in the sub-Eddington regime. The disk radiation efficiency is eta = 0.11 plus or minus 0.03. We also show that the source does follow the LX is proportional to T(exp 4) relation for our mass estimate. At the outburst peaks, the source radiates near the Eddington limit. The accretion rate then stays constant around 4 x 10(exp 4) solar mass yr (sup -1) for several days and then decreases exponentially. Such plateaus in the accretion rate could be evidence that enhanced mass-transfer rateis the driving outburst mechanism in HLX-1. We also report on the new outburst observed in 2011 August by theSwift X-Ray Telescope. The time of this new outburst further strengthens the approximately 1 year recurrence timescale.

solutions↗
NASA NTRS2021

Retrieval of Stratospheric Aerosol Size Distribution Parameters Using Satellite Solar Occultation Measurements at Three Wavelengths

In this work, a novel approach for the determination of the particle size distribution (PSD) parameters of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is presented. For this, ratios of extinction coefficients obtained from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station) solar occultation measurements at 449, 756 and 1544 nm were used to retrieve the mode width and median radius of a size distribution assumed to be monomodal lognormal. The estimated errors at the peak of the stratospheric aerosol layer, on average, lie between 20% and 25% for the median radius and 5% and 7% for the mode width. The results are consistent in magnitude with other retrieval results from the literature, but a robust comparison is difficult, mainly because of differences in temporal and spatial coverage. Other quantities like number density and effective radius were also calculated. A major advantage of the described method over other retrieval techniques is that both the median radius and the mode width can be retrieved simultaneously, without having to assume one of them. This is possible due to the broad wavelength spectrum covered by the SAGE III/ISS measurements. Also, the presented method – being based on the analysis of three wavelengths – allows unique solutions for the retrieval of PSD parameters for almost all of the observed extinction spectra, which is not the case when using only two spectral channels. In addition, the extinction coefficients from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements, on which the retrieval is based, are calculated without a priori assumptions about the PSD. For those reasons, the data produced with the presented retrieval technique may be a valuable contribution for a better understanding of the variability of stratospheric aerosol size distributions, e.g. after volcanic eruptions. While this study focuses on describing the retrieval method, and a future study will discuss the PSD parameter data set produced in depth, some exemplary results for background conditions in June 2017 are shown.

Felix Wrana↗
NASA NTRS2004

System Mass Variation and Entropy Generation in 100k We Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

State-of-the-art closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) space power systems were modeled to study performance trends in a trade space characteristic of interplanetary orbiters. For working-fluid molar masses of 48.6, 39.9, and 11.9 kg/kmol, peak system pressures of 1.38 and 3.0 MPa and compressor pressure ratios ranging from 1.6 to 2.4, total system masses were estimated. System mass increased as peak operating pressure increased for all compressor pressure ratios and molar mass values examined. Minimum mass point comparison between 72 percent He at 1.38 MPa peak and 94 percent He at 3.0 MPa peak showed an increase in system mass of 14 percent. Converter flow loop entropy generation rates were calculated for 1.38 and 3.0 MPa peak pressure cases. Physical system behavior was approximated using a pedigreed NASA Glenn modeling code, Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP), which included realistic performance prediction for heat exchangers, radiators and turbomachinery.

Barrett, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

System Mass Variation and Entropy Generation in 100-kWe Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

State-of-the-art closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) space power systems were modeled to study performance trends in a trade space characteristic of interplanetary orbiters. For working-fluid molar masses of 48.6, 39.9, and 11.9 kg/kmol, peak system pressures of 1.38 and 3.0 MPa and compressor pressure ratios ranging from 1.6 to 2.4, total system masses were estimated. System mass increased as peak operating pressure increased for all compressor pressure ratios and molar mass values examined. Minimum mass point comparison between 72 percent He at 1.38 MPa peak and 94 percent He at 3.0 MPa peak showed an increase in system mass of 14 percent. Converter flow loop entropy generation rates were calculated for 1.38 and 3.0 MPa peak pressure cases. Physical system behavior was approximated using a pedigreed NASA Glenn modeling code, Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP), which included realistic performance prediction for heat exchangers, radiators and turbomachinery.

Barrett, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution, appendix 2

This thesis reviews the technique established to clear channels in the Power Spectral Estimate by applying linear combinations of well known window functions to the autocorrelation function. The need for windowing the auto correlation function is due to the fact that the true auto correlation is not generally used to obtain the Power Spectral Estimate. When applied, the windows serve to reduce the effect that modifies the auto correlation by truncating the data and possibly the autocorrelation has on the Power Spectral Estimate. It has been shown in previous work that a single channel has been cleared, allowing for the detection of a small peak in the presence of a large peak in the Power Spectral Estimate. The utility of this method is dependent on the robustness of it on different input situations. We extend the analysis in this paper, to include clearing up to three channels. We examine the relative positions of the spikes to each other and also the effect of taking different percentages of lags of the auto correlation in the Power Spectral Estimate. This method could have application wherever the Power Spectrum is used. An example of this is beam forming for source location, where a small target can be located next to a large target. Other possibilities extend into seismic data processing. As the method becomes more automated other applications may present themselves.

Ioup, George E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
NASA NTRS1975

An assessment of the benefits of the use of NASA developed fuel conservative technology in the US commercial aircraft fleet

Cost and benefits of a fuel conservative aircraft technology program proposed by NASA are estimated. NASA defined six separate technology elements for the proposed program: (a) engine component improvement (b) composite structures (c) turboprops (d) laminar flow control (e) fuel conservative engine and (f) fuel conservative transport. There were two levels postulated: The baseline program was estimated to cost $490 million over 10 years with peak funding in 1980. The level two program was estimated to cost an additional $180 million also over 10 years. Discussions with NASA and with representatives of the major commercial airframe manufacturers were held to estimate the combinations of the technology elements most likely to be implemented, the potential fuel savings from each combination, and reasonable dates for incorporation of these new aircraft into the fleet.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of Broad-Lined Type Ic Supernovae From the (Intermediate) Palomar Transient Factory

We study 34 Type Ic supernovae that have broad spectral features (SNe Ic-BL). This is the only SN type found in association with long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs).We obtained our photometric data with the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and its continuation, the intermediate PTF (iPTF). This is the first large, homogeneous sample of SNe Ic-BL from an untargeted survey. Furthermore, given the high observational cadence of iPTF, most of these SNe Ic-BL were discovered soon after explosion. We present K-corrected Bgriz light curves of these SNe, obtained through photometry on template-subtracted images. We analyzed the shape of the r-band light curves, finding a correlation between the decline parameter delta m15 and the rise parameter delta m-10. We studied the SN colors and, based on g - r, we estimated the host-galaxy extinction for each event. Peak r-band absolute magnitudes have an average of -18:6 +- 0:5 mag. We fit each r-band light curve with that of SN 1998bw (scaled and stretched) to derive the explosion epochs. We computed the bolometric light curves using bolometric corrections, r-band data, and g - r colors. Expansion velocities from Fe ii were obtained by fitting spectral templates of SNe Ic. Bolometric light curves and velocities at peak were fitted using the semianalytic Arnett model to estimate ejecta mass Mej, explosion energy EK and 56Ni mass M(56Ni) for each SN. We find average values of Mej = 4 +- 3 M sun, EK = (7 +- 6) x 1051 erg, and M(56Ni) = 0:31 +- 0:16 M . The parameter distributions were compared to those presented in the literature and are overall in agreement with them. We also estimated the degree of 56Ni mixing using scaling relations derived from hydrodynamical models and we find that all the SNe are strongly mixed. The derived explosion parameters imply that at least 21% of the progenitors of SNe Ic-BL are compatible with massive (>28 M ), possibly single stars, whereas at least 64% might come from less massive stars in close binary systems.

Supernovae↗
NASA NTRS1993

Estimation of frequency offset in mobile satellite modems

In mobilesat applications, frequency offset on the received signal must be estimated and removed prior to further modem processing. A straightforward method of estimating the carrier frequency offset is to raise the received MPSK signal to the M-th power, and then estimate the location of the peak spectral component. An analysis of the lower signal to noise threshold of this method is carried out for BPSK signals. Predicted thresholds are compared to simulation results. It is shown how the method can be extended to pi/M MPSK signals. A real-time implementation of frequency offset estimation for the Australian mobile satellite system is described.

Cowley, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Lightning Characteristics and Lightning Strike Peak Current Probabilities as Related to Aerospace Vehicle Operations

A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria for current and future NASA aerospace vehicles. The paper estimates the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents these results.

Johnson, Dale L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Novel angular velocity estimation technique for plasma filaments

Magnetic field aligned filaments such as blobs and edge localized mode filaments carry significant amounts of heat and particles to the plasma facing components and they decrease their lifetime. The dynamics of these filaments determine at least a part of the heat and particle loads. These dynamics can be characterized by their translation and rotation. In this paper, we present an analysis method novel for fusion plasmas, which can estimate the angular velocity of the filaments on frame-by-frame time resolution. After pre-processing, the frames are two-dimensional (2D) Fourier-transformed, then the resulting 2D Fourier magnitude spectra are transformed to log-polar coordinates, and finally the 2D cross-correlation coefficient function (CCCF) is calculated between the consecutive frames. The displacement of the CCCF’s peak along the angular coordinate estimates the angle of rotation of the most intense structure in the frame. Further, the proposed angular velocity estimation method is tested and validated for its accuracy and robustness by applying it to rotating Gaussian-structures. The method is also applied to gas-puff imaging measurements of filaments in National Spherical Torus Experiment plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1996

Sonic Boom Ocean Penetration: Noise Metric Comparison and Initial Focusing Results

The purpose of the present research is to determine the impact by sonic boom noise penetration into the ocean. Since the 1994 LaRC High Speed Research Program Sonic Boom Workshop several new results have been obtained. This talk reviews these results, and emphasizes the two most important findings. The first major result is an improved understanding of the noise spectra of the penetrating sonic boom. It was determined that weighted sound exposure levels decrease with deeper ocean depths significantly faster than unweighted sound exposure levels. This is because low frequencies penetrate the ocean deeper than high frequencies. Several noise metrics were used including peak, SEL, C-SEL, A-SEL, and PLdB, and results are given for all. These results are important because they show that the sonic boom noise impact on marine life a few meters below the ocean surface may be significantly lower using weighted sound levels than if one were to measure the impact using unweighted levels. The other major finding is the first estimate of the worst case peak levels produced by a penetrating sonic boom being focused by a sinusoidal ocean surface. The method of analysis chosen was computational, a time domain finite difference algorithm. The method is outlined and then example results are presented. For rounded sonic boom waveforms incident on a sinusoidal ocean surface, it is shown that the percentage increase or decrease in pressure is only occasionally larger than 10%, rarely 25%. These fluctuations indicate, under the assumptions already given, that any increase or decrease in sound level underwater due to focusing or defocusing should be small, less than 3 dB.

Sparrow, Victor W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Symmetric Phase-Only Filtering in Particle-Image Velocimetry

Symmetrical phase-only filtering (SPOF) can be exploited to obtain substantial improvements in the results of data processing in particle-image velocimetry (PIV). In comparison with traditional PIV data processing, SPOF PIV data processing yields narrower and larger amplitude correlation peaks, thereby providing more-accurate velocity estimates. The higher signal-to-noise ratios associated with the higher amplitude correlation peaks afford greater robustness and reliability of processing. SPOF also affords superior performance in the presence of surface flare light and/or background light. SPOF algorithms can readily be incorporated into pre-existing algorithms used to process digitized image data in PIV, without significantly increasing processing times. A summary of PIV and traditional PIV data processing is prerequisite to a meaningful description of SPOF PIV processing. In PIV, a pulsed laser is used to illuminate a substantially planar region of a flowing fluid in which particles are entrained. An electronic camera records digital images of the particles at two instants of time. The components of velocity of the fluid in the illuminated plane can be obtained by determining the displacements of particles between the two illumination pulses. The objective in PIV data processing is to compute the particle displacements from the digital image data. In traditional PIV data processing, to which the present innovation applies, the two images are divided into a grid of subregions and the displacements determined from cross-correlations between the corresponding sub-regions in the first and second images. The cross-correlation process begins with the calculation of the Fourier transforms (or fast Fourier transforms) of the subregion portions of the images. The Fourier transforms from the corresponding subregions are multiplied, and this product is inverse Fourier transformed, yielding the cross-correlation intensity distribution. The average displacement of the particles across a subregion results in a displacement of the correlation peak from the center of the correlation plane. The velocity is then computed from the displacement of the correlation peak and the time between the recording of the two images. The process as described thus far is performed for all the subregions. The resulting set of velocities in grid cells amounts to a velocity vector map of the flow field recorded on the image plane. In traditional PIV processing, surface flare light and bright background light give rise to a large, broad correlation peak, at the center of the correlation plane, that can overwhelm the true particle- displacement correlation peak. This has made it necessary to resort to tedious image-masking and background-subtraction procedures to recover the relatively small amplitude particle-displacement correlation peak. SPOF is a variant of phase-only filtering (POF), which, in turn, is a variant of matched spatial filtering (MSF). In MSF, one projects a first image (denoted the input image) onto a second image (denoted the filter) as part of a computation to determine how much and what part of the filter is present in the input image. MSF is equivalent to cross-correlation. In POF, the frequency-domain content of the MSF filter is modified to produce a unitamplitude (phase-only) object. POF is implemented by normalizing the Fourier transform of the filter by its magnitude. The advantage of POFs is that they yield correlation peaks that are sharper and have higher signal-to-noise ratios than those obtained through traditional MSF. In the SPOF, these benefits of POF can be extended to PIV data processing. The SPOF yields even better performance than the POF approach, which is uniquely applicable to PIV type image data. In SPOF as now applied to PIV data processing, a subregion of the first image is treated as the input image and the corresponding subregion of the second image is treated as the filter. The Fourier transforms from both the firs and second- image subregions are normalized by the square roots of their respective magnitudes. This scheme yields optimal performance because the amounts of normalization applied to the spatial-frequency contents of the input and filter scenes are just enough to enhance their high-spatial-frequency contents while reducing their spurious low-spatial-frequency content. As a result, in SPOF PIV processing, particle-displacement correlation peaks can readily be detected above spurious background peaks, without need for masking or background subtraction.

Wemet, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗