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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sage III/ISS Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We developed a PSD solution algorithm that infers single mode and bimodal distribution parameters and applied this algorithm to the SAGE II and SAGE III/ISS data record. Herein we describe the algorithm, evaluate its performance, and show results from the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption.

Travis N. Knepp↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

NASA NTRS1985

Quality of remote sensing measurements of cloud physical parameters in the cooperative convective precipitation experiment

In order to develop the remote sensing techniques to infer cloud physical parameters, a multispectral cloud radiometer (MCR) was mounted on a NASA high-altitude aircraft in conjunction with the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment in 1981. The MCR has seven spectral channels, of which three are centered near windows associated with water vapor bands in the near infrared, two are centered near the oxygen A band at 0.76 microns, one is centered at the 1.14-micron water vapor band, and one is centered in the thermal infrared. The reflectance and temperature measured on May 31, 1981, are presented together with theoretical calculations. The results indicate that the MCR produces quality measurements. Therefore several cloud parameters can be derived with good accuracy. The parameters are the cloud-scaled optical thickness, cloud top pressure, volume scattering coefficient, particle thermodynamic phase, effective mean particle size, and cloud-top temperature.

Wu, M.-L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEPF: Attention-Enabled Point Fusion for 3D Object Detection

Current state-of-the-art (SOTA) LiDAR-only detectors perform well for 3D object detection tasks, but point cloud data are typically sparse and lacks semantic information. Detailed semantic information obtained from camera images can be added with existing LiDAR-based detectors to create a robust 3D detection pipeline. With two different data types, a major challenge in developing multi-modal sensor fusion networks is to achieve effective data fusion while managing computational resources. With separate 2D and 3D feature extraction backbones, feature fusion can become more challenging as these modes generate different gradients, leading to gradient conflicts and suboptimal convergence during network optimization. To this end, we propose a 3D object detection method, Attention-Enabled Point Fusion (AEPF). AEPF uses images and voxelized point cloud data as inputs and estimates the 3D bounding boxes of object locations as outputs. An attention mechanism is introduced to an existing feature fusion strategy to improve 3D detection accuracy and two variants are proposed. These two variants, AEPF-Small and AEPF-Large, address different needs. AEPF-Small, with a lightweight attention module and fewer parameters, offers fast inference. AEPF-Large, with a more complex attention module and increased parameters, provides higher accuracy than baseline models. Experimental results on the KITTI validation set show that AEPF-Small maintains SOTA 3D detection accuracy while inferencing at higher speeds. AEPF-Large achieves mean average precision scores of 91.13, 79.06, and 76.15 for the car class’s easy, medium, and hard targets, respectively, in the KITTI validation set. Results from ablation experiments are also presented to support the choice of model architecture.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Size Distribution Parameters from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We carried out a series of simulations to evaluate the accuracy of these inferences and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS extinction spectrum, determined the range of PSD parameters that fell withing the bounds of the extinction error bars. Special application of this method was applied to estimate the impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption had on particle size distributions.

Travis N Knepp↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of O(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as O(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS1982

NASA Dryden's experience in parameter estimation and its uses in flight test

An explanation of the parameter estimation method used at the Dryden Flight Research Facility is presented, and an overview is provided of experience related to the employment of this method, taking into account the utilization of this experience in flight tests. According to a definition of the aircraft parameter estimation problem, the system investigated is asumed to be modeled by a set of dynamic equations containing unknown parameters. To determine the values of the unknown parameters, the system is excited by a suitable input, and the input and actual system response are measured. The values of the unknown parameters are then inferred, based on the requirement that the model response to the given input match the actual system response. Examples of parameter estimation in flight test are discussed, giving attention to the F-14 fighter, the HiMAT (high maneuverable aircraft technology) vehicle, and the Space Shuttle.

Iliff, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiangle Observations of Directional Reflectances of Snow Fields

Accurate measurements of snow areas and surface albedo are crucial to advancing our understanding of the global climate system. This is because of the highly reflective nature of snow combined with its large surface coverage (snow can cover up to 40 % of the Earth's land surface during the Northern Hemisphere winter). The reflectance of snow varies with both solar incidence angle and the viewing angle. Visible sensors with different spatial resolutions have been used to infer the snow parameters. Currently, only nadir-viewing directional reflectance data are available from satellite observations. Observations at multiple angles are needed to infer the hemispheric reflectance albedo of snow fields. We propose to study the directional reflectance of snow fields using POLDER data, which contains information from different viewing angles and polarization. POLDER was successfully launched an the ADEOS-1 satellite in August, 1996, however, because POLDER data are not yet available, data from ASAS, a pointable, airborne spectroradiometer, were used in this study. Data collected over Glacier National Park of Montana show strong angular dependence. Preliminary results confirm the anisotropic nature of the snow reflectance. Knowledge of the bi-directional reflectance function(BDRF) of snow -covered surfaces is the key to developing a true albedo model in the future.

Chang, A.T.C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binary Coalescence Signals with the First Generation Gravitational-Wave Detector Network

Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a blind injection where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M25M and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.

Aasi, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

X-ray absorbing structures in the Yohkoh images of the corona

Filaments, flare sprays, prominences and 'post-flare' loops are familiar to H alpha observers in their frequent appearances 'in absorption', dark against the chromospheric background or plages. Observations of the X-ray corona are generally interpreted as due to emission via optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung. Several cases of X-ray coronal structures in Yohkoh images, due to high opacity, absorbing matter in coronograph loops, are presented. The presence of the absorbing matter, mixed with emitting matter, complicates inference of physical parameters such as emission measures in X-ray sources. In the case of well defined features, absorption provides an opportunity to infer density. Quantitative estimates of the attenuation due to the absorption in example features are presented.

Batchelor, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Latitudinal structure of a Coronal Mass Ejection inferred from Ulysses and Geotail observations

We present the first observations of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) by two spacecraft separated substantially in heliographic latitude. Ulysses and Geotail both see similar features in the plasma and magnetic field parameters during an interval in which Geotail is located in the deep magnetosheath (greater than 150 Earth radii) and Ulysses is located in the solar wind at 5 AU, approximately 20 S of Geotail, and approximately 51 W (in the direction of solar rotation) of Geotail. Based on the similarity in plasma and magnetic field parameters and similar inferred ejection times from the Sun for both features we argue that the same CME is observed by both spacecraft. The portion of the CME observed by Ulysses is traveling much faster than the portion observed by Geotail. Thus the CME has significant latitudinal structure since at any given time the high latitude portion of the CME extends much further out in radial distance. Furthermore, this implies that a simple calculation of the arrival time of a CME at the Earth may not be done if the observing spacecraft is located substantially away from the ecliptic plane.

Hammond, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

hierarchical↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Theoretical Operational Model for Complex Experiments and its Invariance Theorems

We develop and systematize the Theoretical–Operational Model (TOM), a framework that treats preparation and measurement —including their operational residues— as intrinsic structures of physical theory. The central contribution is a principled geometric–algebraic organization of admissible operational deformations, formulated using quantum channels, renormalization-style flows, and information-geometric tools. Within this structure, operational residues and background processes are represented as effective morphisms attached to these operational components, whose invariants yield constraints on how theoretical parameters vary under specified classes of deformations. Illustrations drawn from muon–electron conversion, long-baseline neutrino oscillations, and quark–gluon-plasma phenomenology show how TOM maps operational effects into inferences about theoretical parameters, enables systematic cross-experimental comparisons, and stabilizes parameter estimation against defined deformation families. By embedding the operational layer—together with its residues—within a structured theoretical setting, TOM supports both theory testing and theory development, clarifying the conceptual relation between experimental realization and the physical quantities represented by the theory.

Pronskikh, Vitaly [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002518174↗

NASA NTRS1976

Retrieval of surface temperature by remote sensing

A simple procedure and computer program were developed for retrieving the surface temperature from the measurement of upwelling infrared radiance in a single spectral region in the atmosphere. The program evaluates the total upwelling radiance at any altitude in the region of the CO fundamental band (2070-2220 1/cm) for several values of surface temperature. Actual surface temperature is inferred by interpolation of the measured upwelling radiance between the computed values of radiance for the same altitude. Sensitivity calculations were made to determine the effect of uncertainty in various surface, atmospheric and experimental parameters on the inferred value of surface temperature. It is found that the uncertainties in water vapor concentration and surface emittance are the most important factors affecting the accuracy of the inferred value of surface temperature.

Gupta, S. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS1993

Conservative force model performance for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data collected, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. In order to satisfy these requirements, a model which accounts for the satellite's complex geometry, attitude, and surface properties has been developed. This `box-wing' representation treats the spacecraft as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connecetd solar array. The nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Parameters associated with each flat plate were derived from a finite element analysis of the spacecraft. Certain parameters can be inferred from tracking data and have been adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. Changes in the nominal mission profile and the presence of an `anomalistic' force have complicated this tuning process. Model performance, parameter sensitivities, and the `anomalistic' force will be discussed.

Marshall, J. Andrew↗