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NASA NTRS2007

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES: Comparison with Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Tropical Convective Clouds - Part III

The present study evaluates the ability of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate the physical properties of tropical deep convective cloud objects identified from a Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) data product. The emphasis of this study is the comparisons among the small-, medium- and large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 and between the large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 (strong El Ni o) and March 2000 (weak La Ni a). Results from the CRM simulations are analyzed in a way that is consistent with the CERES retrieval algorithm and they are averaged to match the scale of the CERES satellite footprints. Cloud physical properties are analyzed in terms of their summary histograms for each category. It is found that there is a general agreement in the overall shapes of all cloud physical properties between the simulated and observed distributions. Each cloud physical property produced by the CRM also exhibits different degrees of disagreement with observations over different ranges of the property. The simulated cloud tops are generally too high and cloud top temperatures are too low except for the large-size category of March 1998. The probability densities of the simulated top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedos for all four categories are underestimated for high albedos, while those of cloud optical depth are overestimated at its lowest bin. These disagreements are mainly related to uncertainties in the cloud microphysics parameterization and inputs such as cloud ice effective size to the radiation calculation. Summary histograms of cloud optical depth and TOA albedo from the CRM simulations of the large-size category of cloud objects do not differ significantly between the March 1998 and 2000 periods, consistent with the CERES observations. However, the CRM is unable to reproduce the significant differences in the observed cloud top height while it overestimates the differences in the observed outgoing longwave radiation and cloud top temperature between the two periods. Comparisons between the CRM results and the observations for most parameters in March 1998 consistently show that both the simulations and observations have larger differences between the large- and small-size categories than between the large- and medium-size, or between the medium- and small-size categories. However, the simulated cloud properties do not change as much with size as observed. These disagreements are likely related to the spatial averaging of the forcing data and the mismatch in time and in space between the numerical weather prediction model from which the forcing data are produced and the CERES observed cloud systems.

Luo, Yali↗

NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Coastal Fog Microphysics During C-FOG

The goal of this paper is to provide an overview the coastal fog microphysical measurements and to evaluate microphysical parameterizations based on the C-FOG (Toward Improving Coastal Fog Prediction) field project. C-FOG is designed to advance understanding of liquid fog formation, development, and dissipation over coastal environments to improve fog predictability and monitoring. The project took place in Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, NS and Newfoundland, NL) coastlines and open water environments during August-October of 2018 where environmental conditions play an important role for late season’s fog formation. Visibility (Vis), wind speed (Uh), and turbulence along coastlines are the most critical weather- related parameters affecting marine transportation and aviation. In the analysis, microphysical observations are summarized first and then they are, together with 3D wind components, used for fog intensity (visibility) evaluation. Results suggest that detailed microphysical observations collected at the supersites and aboard Research Vessel (RV) Hugh R. Sharp are useful to develop microphysical parameterizations. The fog life cycle and turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate were strongly related to each other. The magnitude of 3D wind fluctuations was higher during the formation and dissipation stages. An array of cutting-edge instruments used for data collection provided new insight into the variability and intensity of fog (visibility) and microphysics. It is concluded that further improvements in microphysical observations and parameterizations are needed to improve fog predictability of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask forecast using the NSRDB

Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Northern Hemisphere Particle Microphysics Data Set From the Precipitation Imaging Package

Microphysical observations of precipitating particles are critical data sources for numerical weather prediction models and remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, obtaining coherent data sets of particle microphysics is challenging as they are often unindexed, distributed across disparate institutions, and have not undergone a uniform quality control process. This work introduces a unified, comprehensive Northern Hemisphere particle microphysical data set from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration precipitation imaging package (PIP), accessible in a standardized data format and stored in a centralized, public repository. Data is collected from 10 measurement sites spanning 34° latitude (37°N–71°N) over 10 years (2014–2023), which comprise a set of 1,070,000 precipitating minutes. The provided data set includes measurements of a suite of microphysical attributes for both rain and snow, including distributions of particle size, vertical velocity, and effective density, along with higher-order products including an approximation of volume-weighted equivalent particle densities, liquid equivalent snowfall, and rainfall rate estimates. The data underwent a rigorous standardization and quality assurance process to filter out erroneous observations to produce a self-describing, scalable, and achievable data set. Case study analyses demonstrate the capabilities of the data set in identifying physical processes like precipitation phase-changes at high temporal resolution. Bulk precipitation characteristics from a multi-site intercomparison also highlight distinct microphysical properties unique to each location. This curated PIP data set is a robust database of high-quality particle microphysical observations for constraining future precipitation retrieval algorithms, and offers new insights toward better understanding regional and seasonal differences in bulk precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: The 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

5-minute Wind Power Data based on WFIP2 WRF Simulation

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) was a public-private partnership funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and NOAA, aimed at enhancing the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models for turbine-height winds in regions with complex terrain. An 18-month Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation was conducted over the Pacific Northwest, with model outputs validated against observational data collected during WFIP2. Simulated wind speeds were used to estimate wind power generation using reV (the Renewable Energy Potential Model developed by NREL) at ten wind project sites. Two sets of results were produced: one using wind speeds extracted from the model grid cell at the project centroid, and another using wind speeds from the actual turbine locations. For each dataset, power output was calculated using both actual turbine-specific power curves and nine generic power curves to convert wind speed into power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

RHOD Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Rhode Island (RHOD). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main) and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

BLOC Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily netcdf files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Block Island (BLOC). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

NANT Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Nantucket Island (NANT). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidar

Abstract. Low-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical extent of these wind profiles is limited by the availability of scatterers and thus varies substantially throughout the day and from one day to the next. This makes it challenging to develop continuous products that rely on CDL-observed wind profiles. In order to overcome this problem, we have developed a new method for wind profile retrievals from CDL that combines the traditional velocity-azimuth display (VAD) technique with optimal estimation (OE) to provide continuous wind profiles up to 3 km. The new method exploits the level-to-level covariance present in the wind profile to fill in the gaps where the signal-to-noise ratio of the CDL return is too low to provide reliable results using the traditional VAD method. Another advantage of the new method is that it provides the full error covariance matrix of the solution and profiles of information content, which more easily facilitates the assimilation of the observed wind profiles into numerical weather prediction models. This method was tested using yearlong CDL measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in 2019. Comparison with the ARM operational CDL wind profile product and collocated radiosonde wind measurements shows excellent agreement (R2>0.99) with no degradation in results where the traditional VAD provided a valid solution. In the region where traditional VAD does not provide results, the OE wind speed and wind vector have uncertainties of 3.44 and 4.33 m s−1, respectively. As a result, the new method provides additional information over the standard technique and increases the effective range of existing CDL systems without the need for additional hardware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗