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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

University Data Management Pilot Utilizing the Nuclear Research Data System

Background In 2022, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) issued a memo that significantly reshaped the landscape of access to federally funded research. The memo mandated that all taxpayer-funded research be made available to the public without delay upon publication, without an embargo period, superseding the 2013 OSTP public access policy. This public access policy promotes transparency and the democratization of knowledge, ensuring that the fruits of scientific endeavors funded by federal agencies could be immediately accessed and built upon by scientists, educators, students, and the public at large. To implement the requirements of the OSTP guidance and DOE Public Access Plan, the Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has implemented public access plan guidance and has identified several areas where better data management practices would further expand public access to important nuclear energy related scientific data, reports, and other technical products. Significant NE supported efforts are already underway for data management and public access to important nuclear energy related data.1 2 To address gaps in data management practices, and improve retention and accessibility of data, NE is actively exploring enhanced data management options utilizing its high-performance computing resources administered by its Nuclear Scientific User Facility Program. A newly piloted system, the Nuclear Research Data System (NRDS) acts as a portal for data collection and dissemination. Nuclear Energy University Program Research and Development Portfolio According to Web of Science, NEUP has produced 2,345 journal publication that have been cited more than 61,000 times3 and countless conference proceedings. These publications are publicly available through OSTI.gov and in the open literature. Additional scientific and technical products including project milestones that are not publications and NEUP project final reports are vetted through OSTI.gov and released once reviewed and approved by DOE. Since 2009, NEUP has awarded close to 1,000 different R&D projects in technical areas across the NE research programs. As of June 2023, 512 NEUP reports are publicly available on OSTI. The underlying data for projects is still held at universities, and data transfer, co-location, and dissemination has not occurred in a systematic way. NEUP data is currently accessible through myriad university-based data repositories, or through direct requests to PIs. The program identified this patchwork of repositories, or often lack of publicly available data, as a significant barrier to an organized, accessible, and comprehensive solution to sharing data with the larger nuclear energy community. Approach The goal of this pilot project is to establish a pathway to a consolidated long-term repository for NEUP project data. To accomplish this goal, the pilot strives to accomplish the following objectives: Establish data collection standards, including a standard set of required supplementary information to contextualize and support raw data files. Work with the HPC group collect and upload information and to modify the NRDS system, as needed, to support a standardized approach. Resolve potential barriers to successful roll out of an expanded data collection strategy, including modifying data management plan guidelines and establishing a document and data release process that accounts for potential intellectual property and/or export control concerns. Results Overall, the pilot was successful in collecting 8,982 raw and processes data files, 220 reports, 56 calibration files, and 5,931 other supplementary documents. Supplementary documents included experimental plans, methods, journal publications and conference proceedings, milestone reports, and final reports. Figure 2 shows the number of data sets and supplementary project information provided by each project. Projects has significantly different input, depending on experimental data produced and completeness of the datasets provided.

Data collection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanding market opportunities: cogeneration strategies for integrated PWR and thermal energy storage systems

We assess the economic viability of nuclear cogeneration by investigating three different modes—fixed dispatch, fully flexible dispatch, and flexible dispatch with minimum heat supply requirements. The analysis focuses on an existing pressurized water reactor (PWR) integrated with thermal energy storage (TES). Heat production costs are estimated under these modes for two U.S. electricity markets: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland Interconnection (PJM). A sensitivity analysis examines profitability at varying heat market prices. Results indicate that fixed heat dispatch inflates heat production costs, often rendering projects economically feasible only at higher heat price levels. Fully-flexible dispatch lowers heat production costs by an average of 43 % compared to fixed dispatch. However, the current 30 % thermal dispatch limit may be insufficient to serve high baseline industrial demands cost‐effectively; higher maximum dispatch rates could enhance project economics. Markets with higher and more volatile electricity prices (e.g., ERCOT) offer greater total energy sales potential (i.e., heat and electricity), but also increase opportunity costs when heat production scheduling restrictions are imposed. In contrast, lower-price, less volatile markets (e.g., PJM) experience smaller impacts from such constraints and provide greater flexibility in accommodating varying cogeneration modes. In conclusion, these findings provide a framework to guide nuclear plant operators in aligning cogeneration strategies with industrial process requirements and electricity market conditions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sentiment analysis of the United States public support of nuclear power on social media using large language models

This study utilized large language models (LLMs) to analyze public sentiment in the United States (US) regarding nuclear power on social media, focusing on X/Twitter, considering climate change challenges and advancements in nuclear power technology. Approximately, 1.26 million nuclear tweets from 2008–2023 were examined to fine-tune LLMs for sentiment classification. We found the crucial role of accurate data labeling for model performance, with potential implications for a 15% improvement, achieved through high-confidence labels. LLMs demonstrated better performance compared to traditional machine learning classifiers, with reduced susceptibility to overfitting and up to 96% classification accuracy. LLMs are used to segment the US public tweets into policy and energy-related categories, revealing that 68% are politically themed. Policy tweets tended to convey negative sentiment, often reflecting opposing political perspectives and focusing on nuclear deals and international relations. Energy-related tweets covered diverse topics with predominantly neutral to positive sentiment, indicating broad support for nuclear power in 48 out of 50 US states. The US public positive sentiments toward nuclear power stemmed from its high power density, reliability regardless of weather conditions, environmental benefits, application versatility, and recent innovations and advancements in both fission and fusion technologies. Negative sentiments primarily focused on waste management, high capital costs, and safety concerns. The neutral campaign highlighted global nuclear facts and advancements, with varying tones leaning towards positivity or negativity. An interesting neutral theme was the advocacy for the combined use of renewable and nuclear energy to attain net-zero goals.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Technical and Economic Considerations for Uprate of Existing Nuclear Reactors with Cogeneration

The United States nuclear reactor fleet consists of 63 pressurized water reactors and 31 boiling water reactors and is a pivotal component in the nation's energy infrastructure, supplying approximately 97 GW e of clean power. With the country's commitment to decarbonization by 2050, these reactors are not only instrumental in decarbonizing the electricity grid but also play a critical role in decarbonizing industrial processes, producing clean fuels, and scaling up CO 2 removal. This report delves into the potential for power uprates in the existing fleet to contribute to these decarbonization efforts, focusing on the expansion of capacity for applications such as hydrogen production and carbon capture and sequestration. Building on previous research, the report explores regional market demands for hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide, financial implications of oxygen and CO 2 sales from high-temperature steam electrolysis systems, and the potential for direct air capture systems paired with uprated nuclear plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Energy -- Providing Power, Building Economies

Clean energy sources, such as wind, solar, and nuclear, are best known for their environmental benefits - providing electricity while preserving clean air and reducing emissions. However, additional benefits of clean energy are that it provides good-paying jobs and helps grow local economies. This brief outlines how nuclear energy development can provide many benefits to the local communities in which they are located, including providing reliable employment, increasing local tax revenues, and decreasing consumer vulnerability to electricity price volatility.

CEM↗
DOE OSTI2021

The NUBASE2020 evaluation of nuclear physics properties *

The NUBASE2020 evaluation contains the recommended values of the main nuclear physics properties for all nuclei in their ground and excited, isomeric (T-1/2 >= 100 ns) states. It encompasses all experimental data published in primary (journal articles) and secondary (mainly laboratory reports and conference proceedings) references, together with the corresponding bibliographical information. In cases where no experimental data were available for a particular nuclide, trends in the behavior of specific properties in neighboring nuclei were examined and estimated values are proposed. Evaluation procedures and policies that were used during the development of this evaluated nuclear data library are presented, together with a detailed table of recommended values and their uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimated HALEU Requirements for Advanced Reactors to Support a Net-Zero Emissions Economy by 2050

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a documented estimate of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needs that may be used in Department of Energy discussions with stakeholders as part of preparations to establish the HALEU Availability Program authorized by the Energy Act of 2020. This report employed a two-step process to estimate HALEU needs for commercial advanced reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Forensics

Nuclear forensics is a key part of the nuclear security strategy for the United States and the international community. The NACS Division is central to the leadership role that LLNL has had in nuclear forensics over the past 25 years. Our current nuclear forensic program includes conducting R&D on provenance and attribution signatures, collaborating with international partners, training the next generation of nuclear forensic experts, developing test materials for verification and validation exercises, and providing expert advice to national and international policy makers. Key to our success in these areas has been the strong and continuing involvement in nuclear forensic casework obtained through law enforcement and intelligence channels as well as our outstanding analytical capabilities. NACS must continue to conduct forward-thinking R&D in nuclear forensics that supports operational programs and addresses intelligence gaps. To maintain leadership in nuclear forensics, we must attract, develop, and retain the best talent. The NNSA has a central leadership role in developing educational initiatives for nuclear forensics. In concert with the Glenn T. Seaborg Institute, the NACS Division will continue to participate in all nuclear forensic educational initiatives (undergraduate, graduate, postdoctoral) and incorporate LLNL’s D&I vision into its student and postdoc recruitment efforts. We will continue to build formal relationships with key academic partners and institutions with active and emerging nuclear forensic research interests. We will also strengthen relationships with NNSA DNN and SSAA funded university consortia (e.g. NSSC, ACE, CNEC, CVT, ETI, MTV), helping them conduct research of interest and relevance to nuclear forensics, while at the same time evaluating and recruiting promising talent from these programs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Energy Systems Program Management Plan

In 2012, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) initiated the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology Program, which includes the Crosscutting Technology Development (CTD) portfolio of subprograms, to conduct research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) to support existing, new and advanced reactor designs and fuel cycle technologies. This program plan describes the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program, an element of the CTD portfolio since 2016 that seeks to improve the economic competitiveness, efficiency and environmental performance of nuclear energy systems by expanding their potential application space beyond electricity and optimizing their utilization in the context of the larger U.S. electric and non-electric energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

R&D with NREL'S Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Facility

NREL's state-of-the-art NMR Facility provides scientists the ability to analyze both solid and liquid samples on four NMR spectrometers. NREL's NMR instruments provide distinct capabilities for analyzing a variety of samples from biomass to plastics to battery components. NREL scientists can monitor reactions - even in real time - to further their understanding of the fundamental chemical processes that may drive the development of next-generation sustainable fuels, materials, and products.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Hybrid Energy Systems Technoeconomic Analysis

This presentation summarizes the final outputs from a multi-year HFTO-funded project that evaluated the potential for hybridized nuclear power plants to economically produce hydrogen. The focus of this presentation is on the interactions between the electricity system modeling and hydrogen system optimization and the resulting figures of merit. This project partnered with Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Electric Power Research Institute, and Xcel Energy.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gender Mainstreaming in Nuclear Security: Strategies for Incorporating Gender Equality by Design in the IAEA Milestones Approach

Gender mainstreaming has emerged as a critical mechanism towards achieving gender equality in the development and implementation of laws, policies, and programs, including those related to national security. Gender mainstreaming is generally defined as the process of assessing the implications for women and men of any planned action, including legislation, policies, and programs, in all areas and at all levels, with the ultimate goal to achieve gender equality. Gender mainstreaming, which in essence can be thought of as “gender equality by design,” is an important element for building a robust nuclear security infrastructure. To date, however, gender mainstreaming has not been fully operationalized in the nuclear sector. For instance, the IAEA Milestones Approach, which provides important guidance to states seeking to develop nuclear power programs, has not yet incorporated or addressed gender considerations in its various phases or nuclear infrastructure issues, including those related to nuclear security. Therefore, this paper will argue that specifically for nuclear newcomer states, gender mainstreaming could serve as a powerful tool to integrate gender considerations into the design of laws, policies, programs, and entities necessary to successfully implement a nuclear power program. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to explore the concept of gender mainstreaming and its relevance to nuclear security, and second, to identify how gender can be incorporated into the IAEA Milestones Approach. The paper will emphasize the importance of developing guidance for the IAEA and nuclear newcomer states on how gender considerations could be incorporated throughout the development of a nuclear security program.

Siserman-Gray, Ioana-Cristina↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transitioning Coal Power Plants to Nuclear Power

Most large U.S. power companies are setting zero-carbon-emission goals and is a reflection of utility commitments to carbon reduction and policies at the Federal and State levels. Increasing the rate of coal power plant (CPP) retirements has been seen across the industry. Previous transitions of coal to gas fuel are becoming less desirable as having zero carbon emissions become ever more import. As CPPs are retired, a reliable and affordable zero-emission power replacement is desired. Nuclear power plants (NPP) is the only existing dispatchable and clean source of energy that can directly replace a CPP. The report covers different factors that affect CPP to NPP projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Emissions: Is it an impossible goal?

Meeting growing energy demands while eliminating emissions, maintaining affordability, and ensuring energy justice is one of the most significant grand challenges of our time. Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. In the U.S., this equates to a net-zero electricity sector by 2035 and across all energy use sectors—including electricity, industry, and transportation—by 2050. The key question then becomes: Can we get there from here? Meeting these aggressive goals demands immediate action, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Currently, almost 85% of global energy demands are met by unabated fossil fuels. That means we have a lot of work to do, and we need to consider all of the non-emitting generation options available in each region—including fossil with carbon capture, renewables, and nuclear. And we need to reach our goal while establishing energy justice, which refers to the goal of achieving equity in social and economic participation in the energy system, while remediating past social, economic, and health burdens on communities that have been brought about by our energy system. This presentation will describe U.S. and global efforts focused on novel energy system solutions that strive to maximize use of all clean energy generation options to meet our energy demands, while ensuring sustainability, customer affordability, and a just energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗