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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights on Nuclear Energy from Long-Term System Models: Inter-Model Comparison Results

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of ACCERT Software for Nuclear Power Plant Techno-Economics

In the past few years, there has been a renewed interest in the deployment of nuclear power for decarbonizing the electricity grid as well as a range of industrial applications. As the demonstrations of advanced nuclear power plants start to begin, there will likely be a further increase in this interest. As nuclear is being considered as a part of the energy mix, understanding the cost of nuclear energy becomes increasingly important for all stakeholders including advanced reactor vendors (for making design decisions and marketing their designs), users of nuclear energy (e.g., to estimate the cost of decarbonization of other industries using nuclear), and government (e.g., in capacity expansion models that are used in framing policy). In this summary, we demonstrate a software tool called ACCERT that is currently being developed with funding from the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) program under the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE NE). ACCERT is a cost estimation and techno-economics tool for nuclear power plant applications that includes a database of (a) cost estimates of various ‘reference’ nuclear power plant designs gathered from existing literature, and (b) algorithms developed from these costs that can be used extrapolate the existing costs and perform a bottom-up cost estimation of other designs. A companion summary describes the software and its design in more detail and this summary presents a demonstration for four different nuclear power plant designs: a pressurized water reactor (PWR), high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR), sodium fast reactor (SFR), and a heat-pipe microreactor. The demonstrations include the reference cost estimates and the cost estimates of a modified design for each reference case.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: "Republic of Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Feasibility Report"

[This is part of a hypothetical, scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] This report serves as official record of the coordinated process completed by competent authorities and other organizations with nuclear security responsibilities in the Republic of Centralia to determine the feasibility of establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). The report summarizes all sustainability needs and available resources identified during the feasibility determination process, including consideration of possible NSSC institutional models, in line with the systematic approach recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, has prepared this report in collaboration with members of the Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report has been presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), for final review and decision-making as to whether Centralia should proceed with establishing an NSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

MULTIMARKET CONTROL AND OPERATION OF AN ADVANCED NUCLEAR REACTOR WITHIN AN INTEGRATED ENERGY PARK

Integrated energy systems (IES) are increasing in popularity and relevance given the heightened penetration of variable renewable energy sources. This variability is causing traditional baseload generators to reconsider their business cases as exclusively electrical generation stations and to instead consider ancillary products (e.g., hydrogen) to remain competitive in the current energy market. This work investigates the coupling, control, and overall viability of IES consisting of an advanced nuclear reactor coupled with a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant and hydrogen storage. The goal of such IES is to produce hydrogen without impacting reactor operations during periods of off-peak electricity demand and then sell electricity to the grid during periods of high demand. To accomplish this, a novel heat exchanger, control scheme, and coupling strategy were needed to ensure that the advanced nuclear power plant could make these transitions. Idaho National Laboratory’s open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) framework was used to develop novel coupling and control schemes that demonstrate the viability of multi-market operation of advanced nuclear reactors to produce both electricity and hydrogen. The results demonstrated the coupled IES could operate without impacting reactor systems while monetizing the electricity market and meeting all contractual hydrogen consumer demands.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

NEXUS-DC: Nuclear Energy eXpedition for US Data Centers [Slides]

This presentation covers the growing interest in utilizing nuclear power to satisfy the increasing energy demands of data centers in the United States, emphasizing the factors that accelerate reactor deployment. It addresses clean and reliable energy needs, highlights the importance of power supply redundancy for reliability, and discusses challenges and solutions related to cooling, waste heat reuse, and techno-economics. Additionally, it includes a strength, weakness, opportunities and threat analysis and emphasizes community engagement and collaboration for accelerating regulatory approvals and reactor deployment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building an Effective Nuclear Safety Culture [Slides]

A culture is a way of life of a group of people - the behaviors, beliefs, values, and symbols that they accept, generally without thinking about them, and that are passed along by communication and imitation from one generation to the next. We have different cultures between Technical Areas, facilities, divisions, work groups, etc.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: “Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Strategy Implementation Plan”

[This is part of a hypothetical scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] In prior years, as a part of efforts to strengthen and better sustain nuclear security within the State, Centralia requested through the Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plan (INSSP) framework that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conduct an expert mission on establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). After the IAEA conducted the NSSC expert mission, members of the Centralia Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) agreed to initiate the feasibility determination phase of establishing an NSSC, in line with the systematic process recommended by the IAEA. Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, prepared a Feasibility Report in collaboration with members of the CNS and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report was presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), who reviewed and approved the proposal for Centralia to proceed with establishing an NSSC. After Centralia moved into the planning phase for the Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre (CNSSC), per REF, the primary stakeholders of the centre jointly developed this strategy implementation plan, which provides an outline of the organizational structure, needs analysis, programme objectives, financial and project management, risk management, and other key aspects of the centre. This document will be reviewed and updated as necessary on a semi-annual basis during the project implementation period of establishing CNSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of Product Diversification Options for Sustainability of the Monticello and Prairie Island Nuclear Power Plants

The objective of this work was to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of hybrid options that could be integrated with light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) in order to improve the viability and sustainability of existing LWRs through product diversification by utilizing nuclear energy not only to produce grid electricity but to also produce carbon free products such as hydrogen, ammonia or synthetic fuels. Much of the analysis herein could be generally applied to any LWR (high temperature steam electrolysis- HTSE design), but hydrogen demand and the optimization of the HTSE was completed with specific collaboration and data from Xcel Energy’s Prairie Island and Monticello nuclear generating stations and the surrounding market and logistics potential in the greater Minneapolis region. Xcel Energy has set aggressive goals with regards to decarbonization, including an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels, by 2030 and 100% carbon free by 2050. Other TEAs regarding hydrogen production with nuclear energy have been completed in collaboration with other utility companies previously. Besides being the first TEA in this regard specific to Xcel Energy and the surrounding markets and logistics, this TEA adds to the previously completed TEAs by providing the most up to date and state of the art analysis and optimization of the hydrogen production plant integrated with nuclear power (NPP-HTSE).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cost Efficient-by-Design Microreactors: Trade-offs between cost, technical, and regulatory factors

This research evaluates a cost reduction investigation through adoption of a functional containment approach on the microreactor system and structure. Trade-offs between microreactor system designs, fuels and reactor module sizes are evaluated based on performance-based and risk-informed design procedures. Cost savings are evaluated against trade-offs in the reliability of passive heat removal systems, reactivity control, and radioactive material containment. Results can inform the Microreactor Program and reactor designs on “sweet spots” for microreactors that are cost-efficient while meeting required safety limits.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Integration: Key Challenges for Data Centers, Nuclear Stakeholders, and Utility Operators

The rapid expansion of data centers, driven by the exponential growth in data-processing and storage needs, presents significant challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders, including data center developers, nuclear energy providers, and utility companies. Data centers are projected to consume 6.7–12% of United States (U.S.) electricity by 2028, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud-computing demands. Nuclear energy offers reliability and dispatchable baseload power, but data centers need power now while nuclear still needs time to address siting, fast power ramping, and regulatory hurdles. Utilities must keep pace with the unprecedented acceleration of large load interconnection requests and urgently adapt to high-density loads while maintaining grid stability, reliability, and accelerating interconnection timelines. This report dives into these challenges and proposes key collaboration strategies to streamline data center integration that aligns with recent federal initiatives like America’s AI Action Plan and related executive orders that emphasize the importance of data center growth, nuclear energy expansion, and maintaining a competitive edge in the global AI race.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗