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DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influences of Alkali Metal Cation Interactions on N2 Coordination to Iron(I) Beta-Diketiminate Complexes in Electrolyte Solutions

N2 functionalization reactions often use stable, isolable N2-bound complexes and low temperatures or highly activated reagents. However, little work has focused on systems where N2 binds weakly, and the N2 binding equilibrium can be modulated. Here, we describe analysis of surprising trends in alkali metal cation solvation on the formation of an anionic iron(I) beta-diketiminate complex and the subsequent N2 binding equilibrium. Variable temperature UV-vis spectroscopy shows that increased ionic strength in the coordinating solvent tetrahydrofuran promotes N2 coordination. Additionally, less solvated alkali metal cations in noncoordinating 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF) stabilize N2 coordination, likely through the formation of contact ion pairs in solution that have enhanced N2 binding. Ionic strength has little effect on the energetics of N2 coordination to these proposed contact ion pairs in MeTHF. When the electrochemical analysis is done at –78 °C, there is an irreversible reduction of iron(II) and an anodically shifted oxidation, which is attributed to the formation of the spectroscopically observed N2 complex. Finally, bulk electrolysis is used to verify the electrochemical formation of the N2-bound anionic iron(I) complex. These studies demonstrate a new strategy for promoting N2 coordination by changing solution properties, which is relevant to homogeneous electrochemical N2 reduction methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2022

Structures of the Nitrogenase Complex Prepared Under Catalytic Turnover Conditions

The enzyme nitrogenase couples adenosine triphosphate (ATP) hydrolysis to the multielectron reduction of atmospheric dinitrogen into ammonia. Despite extensive research, the mechanistic details of ATP-dependent energy transduction and dinitrogen reduction by nitrogenase are not well understood, requiring new strategies to monitor its structural dynamics during catalytic action. Here, we report cryo–electron microscopy structures of the nitrogenase complex prepared under enzymatic turnover conditions. We observe that asymmetry governs all aspects of the nitrogenase mechanism, including ATP hydrolysis, protein-protein interactions, and catalysis. Conformational changes near the catalytic iron-molybdenum cofactor are correlated with the nucleotide-hydrolysis state of the enzyme.

Hannah L. Rutledge↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strong NIR II Chiroptical Response and Magnetic Anisotropy via Modular Installation of Chiral Capping Ligands on a Light-Emitting Diradicaloid Scaffold

Low-energy molecular lumiphores have seen increased interest due to potential imaging and communications applications. Specifically, molecules that emit in the near-infrared (NIR, 700–1700 nm) or telecom (∼1260–1625 nm) regions, where attenuation is minimized in biological tissue and optical fibers, respectively, can drastically improve image resolution and depth penetration; however, bright low-energy emission is rare due to exponentially decreasing quantum yields in this region. Chiral molecules exhibiting strong NIR or telecom absorption/emission would be of particular interest due to advanced security and spintronics applications, but these compounds remain scarce and are currently restricted to lanthanide or nanoparticle-based systems. Here, we report the synthesis of a chiral organic-based NIR emitter, enabled by simple peripheral installation of chiral capping ligands. These ligands twist the achiral NIR-emissive core, breaking inversion symmetry. Furthermore, this twisting enables strong chiroptical responses observed via static and transient circular dichroism and increased magnetic anisotropy through electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements, establishing this strategy as a promising method for the development of new chiral emitters and sensors.

Electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy↗

NASA NTRS1995

A review of the US Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System

This report reflects the results of a ten-day workshop convened at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography July 19-28, 1995. The workshop was convened as the first phase of a two part review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The workshop was organized to provide a review of the scientific foundations and progress to date in the USGCRP and an assessment of the implications of new scientific insights for future USGCRP and Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System (MTPE/EOS) activities; a review of the role of NASA's MTPE/EOS program in the USGCRP observational strategy; a review of the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) as a component of USGCRP data management activities; and an assessment of whether recent developments in the following areas lead to a need to readjust MTPE/EOS plans. Specific consideration was given to: proposed convergence of U.S. environmental satellite systems and programs, evolving international plans for Earth observation systems, advances in technology, and potential expansion of the role of the private sector. The present report summarizes the findings and recommendations developed by the Committee on Global Change Research on the basis of the presentations, background materials, working group deliberations, and plenary discussions of the workshop. In addition, the appendices include summaries prepared by the six working groups convened in the course of the workshop.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-throughput screening of multifunctional nanocoatings based on combinations of polyphenols and catecholamines

Biomimetic surface coatings based on plant polyphenols and catecholamines have been used broadly in a variety of applications. However, the lack of a rational cost-effective platform for screening these coatings and their properties limits the true potential of these functional materials to be unleashed. Here, we investigated the oxidation behavior and coating formation ability of a library consisting of 45 phenolic compounds and catecholamines. UV–vis spectroscopy demonstrated significant acceleration of oxidation and polymerization under UV irradiation. We discovered that several binary mixtures resulted in non-additive behavior (synergistic or antagonistic effect) yielding much thicker or thinner coatings than individual compounds measured by ellipsometry. To investigate the properties of coatings derived from new combinations, we used a miniaturized high-throughput strategy to screen 2,532 spots coated with single, binary, and ternary combinations of coating precursors in one run. We evaluated the use of machine learning models to learn the relation between the chemical structure of the precursors and the thickness of the nanocoatings. Formation and stability of nanocoatings were investigated in a high-throughput manner via discontinuous dewetting. 30 stable combinations (hits) were used to tune the surface wettability and to form water droplet microarray and spot size gradients of water droplets on the coated surface. No toxicity was observed against eukaryotic HeLa cells and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (strain PA30) bacteria after 24 h incubation at 37 C. The strategy introduced here for high-throughput screening of nanocoatings derived from combinations of coating precursors enables the discovery of new functional materials for various applications in science and technology in a cost-effective miniaturized manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1991

Payload advisory panel recommendations

The Payload Advisory Panel proposes a restructured Earth Observing System (EOS) mission to address high-priority science and environmental policy issues in Earth System Science. These issues have been identified through studies conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES). The restructured EOS defers efforts to improve the understanding of the middle and upper stratosphere and solid earth geophysics. The strategy of the mission combines high priority new measurements with continuation of critical data sets begun by missions which precede EOS. Collaborative arrangements with international partners are an essential part of the program and additional arrangements are posed. The need for continuity in Earth observations and the urgency of environmental questions require launch of some EOS elements as soon as possible. They further require maintenance of the EOS objective of obtaining consistent 15-year measurement records.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

NASA NTRS1983

Implementation Strategy

Meeting the identified needs of Earth science requires approaching EOS as an information system and not simply as one or more satellites with instruments. Six elements of strategy are outlined as follows: implementation of the individual discipline missions as currently planned; use of sustained observational capabilities offered by operational satellites without waiting for the launch of new mission; put first priority on the data system; deploy an Advanced Data Collection and Location System; put a substantial new observing capability in a low Earth orbit in such a way as to provide for sustained measurements; and group instruments to exploit their capabilities for synergism; maximize the scientific utility of the mission; and minimize the costs of implementation where possible.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Calibration with the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Using Cross-Correlations

We present a new calibration method based on cross-correlations with the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and apply it to data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). ACT's observing strategy and mapmaking procedure allows an unbiased reconstruction of the modes in the maps over a wide range of multipoles. By directly matching the ACT maps to WMAP observations in the multipole range of 400 < I < 1000, we determine the absolute calibration with an uncertainty of 2% in temperature. The precise measurement of the calibration error directly impacts the uncertainties in the cosmological parameters estimated from the ACT power spectra. We also present a combined map based on ACT and WMAP data that has a high signal-to-noise ratio over a wide range of multipoles.

Hajian, Amir↗

NASA NTRS2017

Orbit Determination Strategy and Simulation Performance for OSIRIS-REx Proximity Operations

The Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith Explorer (OSIRISREx)is a NASA New Frontiers mission to the near-earth asteroid Bennu that will rendez vousin 2018, create a comprehensive and detailed set of observations over several years, collect a regolith sample, and return the sample to Earth in 2023. The Orbit Determination (OD) team isa sub-section of the Flight Dynamics System responsible for generating precise reconstructions and predictions of the spacecraft trajectory. The OD team processes radiometric data, LIDAR, as well as center-finding and landmark-based Optical Navigation images throughout the proximity operations phase to estimate and predict the spacecraft location within several meters. Stringent knowledge requirements stress the OD teams concept of operations and procedures to produce verified and consistent high quality solutions for observation planning, maneuver planning, and onboard sequencing. This paper will provide insight into the OD concept of operations and summarize the OD performance expected during the approach and early proximity operation phases,based on our pre-encounter knowledge of Bennu. Strategies and methods used to compare and evaluate predicted and reconstructed solutions are detailed. The use of high fidelity operational tests during early 2017 will stress the teams concept of operations and ability to produce precise OD solutions with minimal turn-around delay.

Leonard, Jason M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

CSAPR2 cell-tracking data collected during TRACER

One of the challenges of analyzing convective cell properties is quick evolution of the individual convective cells. While the operational radar data provide great a data set to analyze the evolution of radar observables of convective precipitation clouds statistically, previous studies also suggested that, because of the quick evolution of cell life cycle, conventional radar volume scan strategies taking ~5-7 minutes might not capture the detailed evolution. The TRACER campaign deployed CSAPR2, which performed frequent update of RHI and sector PPI scans to track convective cells every < 2 minutes guided by a new cell-tracking framework, Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS; Kollias et al. 2020). This allows for capturing fast-evolving radar observables. The submitted data files are CSAPR2 data in CfRadial format collected during the TRACER field campaign from June to September 2020. The data files include processed radar variables including: noise-masked reflectivity and differential reflectivity corrected for rain attenuation and systematic biases, noise-masked dealiased radial velocity, specific differential phase, locations of target cells (latitude, longitude, radar range), and radar-echo classification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sequential Filtering in the Presence of Uniform Measurement Errors

This paper presents a sequential filtering strategy using observations corrupted with uniform measurement noise. While the Kalman filter remains the best linear estimator of the state, other filtering techniques provide minimum variance optimal estimates, a trait only enjoyed by the Kalman filter when the underlying noises are, in fact, Gaussian. This work develops a new approximate optimal estimator for uniform measurement noises. The resulting recursion requires just slightly more computational time to complete a measurement update than the Kalman filter, which generally cannot be claimed by other optimal strategies such as the particle or Gaussian mixture filters.

James S. McCabe↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sequential Filtering in the Presence of Uniform Measurement Errors

James S McCabe↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Swift Supergiant Fast X-Ray Transients Project:

We present a review of the Supergiant Fast X-ray Transients (SFXT) Project, a systematic investigation of the properties of SFXTs with a strategy that combines Swift monitoring programs with outburst follow-up observations. This strategy has quickly tripled the available sets of broad-band data of SFXT outbursts, and gathered a wealth of out-of-outburst data, which have led us to a broad-band spectral characterization, an assessment of the fraction of the time these sources spend in each phase, and their duty cycle of inactivity. We present some new observational results obtained through our outburst follow-ups, as fitting examples of the exceptional capabilities of Swift in catching bright flares and monitor them panchromatically.

(IGR J16328aEuro"4726↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leptonic scalars and collider signatures in a UV-complete model

We study the non-standard interactions of neutrinos with light leptonic scalars ( &straightphi; ) in a global ( B – L )-conserved ultraviolet (UV)-complete model. The model utilizes Type-II seesaw motivated neutrino interactions with an SU(2) L -triplet scalar, along with an additional singlet in the scalar sector. This UV-completion leads to an enriched spectrum and consequently new observable signatures. We examine the low-energy lepton flavor violation constraints, as well as the perturbativity and unitarity constraints on the model parameters. Then we lay out a search strategy for the unique signature of the model resulting from the leptonic scalars at the hadron colliders via the processes H ±± → W ± W ± &straightphi; and H ± → W ± &straightphi; for both small and large leptonic Yukawa coupling cases. We find that via these associated production processes at the HL-LHC, the prospects of doubly-charged scalar H ±± can reach up to 800 (500) GeV and 1.1 (0.8) TeV at the 2 σ (5 σ ) significance for small and large Yukawa couplings, respectively. A future 100 TeV hadron collider will further increase the mass reaches up to 3.8 (2.6) TeV and 4 (2.7) TeV, at the 2 σ (5 σ ) significance, respectively. We also demonstrate that the mass of &straightphi; can be determined at about 10% accuracy at the LHC for the large Yukawa coupling case even though it escapes as missing energy from the detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical Switching of a Fluorescent Molecular Rotor Embedded within a Bistable Rotaxane

We report how the nanoconfined environment, introduced by the mechanical bonds within an electrochemically switchable bistable [2]rotaxane, controls the rotation of a fluorescent molecular rotor, namely, an 8-phenyl-substituted boron dipyrromethene (BODIPY). The electrochemical switching of the bistable [2]rotaxane induces changes in the ground-state coconformation and in the corresponding excited-state properties of the BODIPY rotor. In the starting redox state, when no external potential is applied, the cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) (CBPQT4+) ring component encircles the tetrathiafulvalene (TTF) unit on the dumbbell component, leaving the BODIPY rotor unhindered and exhibiting low fluorescence. Upon oxidation of the TTF unit to a TTF2+ dication, the CBPQT4+ ring is forced toward the molecular rotor, leading to an increased energy barrier for the excited state to rotate the rotor into the state with a high nonradiative rate constant, resulting in an overall 3.4-fold fluorescence enhancement. On the other hand, when the solvent polarity is high enough to stabilize the excited charge-transfer state between the BODIPY rotor and the CBPQT4+ ring, movement of the ring toward the BODIPY rotor produces an unexpectedly strong fluorescence signal decrease as the result of photoinduced electron transfer from the BODIPY rotor to the CBPQT4+ ring. The nanoconfinement effect introduced by mechanical bonding can effectively lead to modulation of the physicochemical properties as observed in this bistable [2]rotaxane. On account of the straightforward synthetic strategy and the facile modulation of switchable electrochromic behavior, our approach could pave the way for the development of new stimuli-responsive materials based on mechanically interlocked molecules for future electro-optical applications, such as sensors, molecular memories, and molecular logic gates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robust adaptive regulation without persistent excitation

A globally convergent adaptive regulator for minimum or nonminimum phase systems subject to bounded distrubances and unmodeled dynamics is presented. The control strategy is designed for a particular input-output representation obtained from the state space representation of the system. The leading coefficient of the new representation is the product of the observability and controllability matrices of the system. The controller scheme uses a Least Squares identification algorithm with a dead zone. The dead zone is chosen to obtain convergence properties on the estimates and on the covariance matrix as well. This allows the definition of modified estimates which secure well-conditioned matrices in the adaptive control law. Explicit bounds on the plant output are given.

Lozano-Leal, Rogelio↗

NASA NTRS2020

Terra MODIS: 20 years of on-orbit calibration and performance

Since its launch in December 1999, Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has successfully operated for more than 20 years, with its observations generating a broad range of science data products that have greatly enabled the remote sensing community and users worldwide in their studies of many key geophysical parameters of the Earth’s systems. MODIS collects data in 36 spectral bands, covering wavelengths from 0.41 to 14.4 μm, which are calibrated by a set of onboard calibrators (OBCs). Also contributing to the sensor’s mission-long on-orbit calibration and characterization are near-monthly scheduled lunar observations and multiple time series of the sensor’s responses over select ground targets at a variety of scan angles. To a large extent, the quality of MODIS data products relies strongly on the dedicated efforts to operate and calibrate the instrument, to derive and update calibration parameters, and to develop and implement new calibration strategies and algorithms in response to on-orbit changes of the sensor’s characteristics and its OBC functions. We provide an overview of the Terra MODIS on-orbit operation and calibration activities over the last 20 years, including changes made to extend and preserve the instrument and OBC functions and their operation strategies. It also illustrates the sensor’s on-orbit performance with results derived from its OBC, lunar observations, and select ground targets and discusses major changes in sensor characteristics and corrections applied to the L1B algorithms as well as calibration lookup table updates. To date, the Terra MODIS instrument and its OBCs continue to operate and function normally. Except for those identified prelaunch, most spectral bands and detectors continue to meet their specified calibration requirements. Also discussed in our paper are lessons learned from Terra MODIS operation and calibration, as well as future efforts to further extend and maintain the quality of its long-term data records.

Terra↗