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At least 163 records · Page 9

Exhaust pressure and density of various pulsed mpd-arc thruster systems

Exhaust flow in a new, 155 cm i.d., vacuum facility was compared with earlier measurements in a small (15.2 cm i.d.) duct. Reductions in post transient impact pressure were about 5:1 in the larger facility. Corresponding reduced electron number densities (approximately 2 x 10 to the 13th power/cucm) were noted. A new, 125 miscrosecond, pulse forming network power source produced no major differences in impact pressure compared to the crowbarred condenser bank used earlier. Comparing a puff gas feed of the arc chamber with a new 10 millisecond steady gas feed also showed no major difference in impact pressure for 125 miscrosecond powering.

Michels, C. J.↗

A Human View Model for Socio-Technical Interactions

The Human View was developed as an additional architectural viewpoint to focus on the human part of a system. The Human View can be used to collect and organize data in order to understand how human operators interact and impact the other elements of a system. This framework can also be used to develop a model to describe how humans interact with each other in network enabled systems. These socio-technical interactions form the foundation of the emerging area of Human Interoperability. Human Interoperability strives to understand the relationships required between human operators that impact collaboration across networked environments, including the effect of belonging to different organizations. By applying organizational relationship concepts from network theory to the Human View elements, and aligning these relationships with a model developed to identify layers of coalition interoperability, the conditions for different levels for Human Interoperability for network enabled systems can be identified. These requirements can then be captured in the Human View products to improve the overall network enabled system.

Handley, Holly A.↗

Run Time Improvement Efforts for the Roman Space Telescope Thermal Analysis

"Observatory thermal models for large, complex missions, such as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, produce an immense amount of data to be processed. Configuration management of the model throughout the project life cycle has mainly focused on which versions of the subsystem models form the current observatory level configuration. However, the results produced by the model are not nearly as well The Roman Space Telescope (RST), formerly known as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope, is the next great astrophysics observatory mission to follow the James Webb Space Telescope with a planned launch in 2026. As a large scale, flagship mission for NASA with challenging wave front error stability requirements, a single model approach for both thermal discipline analysis and thermo-optical distortion analysis has been used since the early days of the project. In alleviating the need to maintain two separate models for different analysis types, it imposes run time penalties on the thermal analysis with a large model with significant radiation heat exchange. Throughout the lifecycle of the project, the component models have steadily grown in size, resulting in a continuous growth of the overall observatory model with each update and consequently a considerable increase in the model run time. While ongoing efforts to reduce run time are continuously investigated, previous efforts had primarily focused on timestep size and total simulation time to reach quasi-equilibrium. More recently, studies were performed on the total number of radiation couplings (radks) included in the model, which has a nearly linear impact on run time, but increases exponentially with node count. As standard practice for spacecraft analysis, small radks were excluded from the temperature solution based on the assumption that their interchange/view factors have a negligible impact on heat flow. Four approaches were investigated to reduce the model run time while minimizing the impact on accuracy: (1) the Equivalent Radiation Network node, (2) Progressive Radk Inclusion as solution proceeds, (3) Targeted Radk Filtering for critical/non critical areas, and lastly (4) Representation of culled radks with Backloads. Furthermore, the investigation of model run time also revealed that cold cases took noticeably longer to run than hot cases; the root computational inefficiencies were explored along with the computation penalty of linearization of the external radks and recalculation of temperature dependent linear couplings at each timestep. This paper outlines the details of each of the above approaches and their impact on run time and model accuracy.

Thermal Analysis↗

Run Time Improvement Efforts for the Roman Space Telescope Thermal Analysis

Observatory thermal models for large, complex missions, such as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, produce an immense amount of data to be processed. Configuration management of the model throughout the project life cycle has mainly focused on which versions of the subsystem models form the current observatory level configuration. However, the results produced by the model are not nearly as well The Roman Space Telescope (RST), formerly known as the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope, is the next great astrophysics observatory mission to follow the James Webb Space Telescope with a planned launch in 2026. As a large scale, flagship mission for NASA with challenging wave front error stability requirements, a single model approach for both thermal discipline analysis and thermo-optical distortion analysis has been used since the early days of the project. In alleviating the need to maintain two separate models for different analysis types, it imposes run time penalties on the thermal analysis with a large model with significant radiation heat exchange. Throughout the lifecycle of the project, the component models have steadily grown in size, resulting in a continuous growth of the overall observatory model with each update and consequently a considerable increase in the model run time. While ongoing efforts to reduce run time are continuously investigated, previous efforts had primarily focused on timestep size and total simulation time to reach quasi-equilibrium. More recently, studies were performed on the total number of radiation couplings (radks) included in the model, which has a nearly linear impact on run time, but increases exponentially with node count. As standard practice for spacecraft analysis, small radks were excluded from the temperature solution based on the assumption that their interchange/view factors have a negligible impact on heat flow. Four approaches were investigated to reduce the model run time while minimizing the impact on accuracy: (1) the Equivalent Radiation Network node, (2) Progressive Radk Inclusion as solution proceeds, (3) Targeted Radk Filtering for critical/non critical areas, and lastly (4) Representation of culled radks with Backloads. Furthermore, the investigation of model run time also revealed that cold cases took noticeably longer to run than hot cases; the root computational inefficiencies were explored along with the computation penalty of linearization of the external radks and recalculation of temperature dependent linear couplings at each timestep. This paper outlines the details of each of the above approaches and their impact on run time and model accuracy.

Thermal Analysis↗

Monitoring of Thermal Protection Systems and MMOD using Robust Self-Organizing Optical Fiber Sensing Networks

The general aim of this work is to develop and demonstrate a prototype structural health monitoring system for thermal protection systems that incorporates piezoelectric acoustic emission (AE) sensors to detect the occurrence and location of damaging impacts, such as those from Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD). The approach uses an optical fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor network to evaluate the effect of detected damage on the thermal conductivity of the TPS material. Following detection of an impact, the TPS would be exposed to a heat source, possibly the sun, and the temperature distribution on the inner surface in the vicinity of the impact measured by the FBG network. A similar procedure could also be carried out as a screening test immediately prior to re-entry. The implications of any detected anomalies in the measured temperature distribution will be evaluated for their significance in relation to the performance of the TPS during reentry. Such a robust TPS health monitoring system would ensure overall crew safety throughout the mission, especially during reentry.

Fiber Optic Sensors↗

Exhaust pressure and density of various pulsed MPD-Arc thruster systems

Exhaust flow in a new 155-cm-i.d. vacuum facility is compared with earlier measurements in a small (15.2-cm-i.d.) duct. Reductions in post-transient impact pressure are about 5:1 in the larger facility. Corresponding reduced electron number densities (about 2 x 10 to the 13th power per cu cm) are noted. A new 125-microsec pulse-forming network power source produced no major differences in impact pressure compared to the crowbarred condenser bank used earlier. Comparing a puff gas feed of the arc chamber with a new 10-msec steady gas feed also shows no major difference in impact pressure for 125-microsec powering.

Michels, C. J.↗

Assimilation of AERONET and MODIS AOT Observations Using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation Methods and Its Impact on Aerosol Forecasting Skill

Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT> 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

Rubin, Juli I.↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Topology-selective jamming of fully-connected, code-division random-access networks

The purpose is to introduce certain models of topology selective stochastic jamming and examine its impact on a class of fully-connected, spread-spectrum, slotted ALOHA-type random access networks. The theory covers dedicated as well as half-duplex units. The dominant role of the spatial duty factor is established, and connections with the dual concept of time selective jamming are discussed. The optimal choices of coding rate and link access parameters (from the users' side) and the jamming spatial fraction are numerically established for DS and FH spreading.

Polydoros, Andreas↗

Paleohydrologic Implications of Valley Networks of Mars

Valley networks in the heavily cratered terrains of Mars represent an ancient epoch of hydrologic conditions greatly different from those of today. Available crater counts on the valley networks indicate formation during the high flux of impacting bodies charaterizing the early heavy bombardment phase of Martian history. Two populations of valleys are recognized in the equatorial regions of Mars: pristine and degraded. The latter probably formed at the very end of the heavy bombardment phase, extending into the post-heavy bombardment by formation in the intercrater plains. Pristine valleys generally form segments of larger networks with degraded components. This suggests that valley formation was a prolonged process coeval with the heavy bombardment period and extending just beyond that period in martian history. The pristine networks and pristine portions of compound networks on Mars show morphological attributes consistent with an origin by headward growth through spring sapping. On Earth spring sapping occurs where groundwater out-streamflow can be generated by insolation changes associated with orbital parameters or with geothermal effects, such as might be associated with impact or with the volcanic emplacement of the intercrater plains. Thus, it is appropriate to specify the most conservation deviation from modern hydrologic conditions on Mars that could account for the ancient epoch of valley formation.

Baker, V. R.↗

Neural Network Prediction of Failure of Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels from Strain Field Data Acquired by a Computer Vision Method

This effort used a new and novel method of acquiring strains called Sub-pixel Digital Video Image Correlation (SDVIC) on impact damaged Kevlar/epoxy filament wound pressure vessels during a proof test. To predict the burst pressure, the hoop strain field distribution around the impact location from three vessels was used to train a neural network. The network was then tested on additional pressure vessels. Several variations on the network were tried. The best results were obtained using a single hidden layer. SDVIC is a fill-field non-contact computer vision technique which provides in-plane deformation and strain data over a load differential. This method was used to determine hoop and axial displacements, hoop and axial linear strains, the in-plane shear strains and rotations in the regions surrounding impact sites in filament wound pressure vessels (FWPV) during proof loading by internal pressurization. The relationship between these deformation measurement values and the remaining life of the pressure vessels, however, requires a complex theoretical model or numerical simulation. Both of these techniques are time consuming and complicated. Previous results using neural network methods had been successful in predicting the burst pressure for graphite/epoxy pressure vessels based upon acoustic emission (AE) measurements in similar tests. The neural network associates the character of the AE amplitude distribution, which depends upon the extent of impact damage, with the burst pressure. Similarly, higher amounts of impact damage are theorized to cause a higher amount of strain concentration in the damage effected zone at a given pressure and result in lower burst pressures. This relationship suggests that a neural network might be able to find an empirical relationship between the SDVIC strain field data and the burst pressure, analogous to the AE method, with greater speed and simplicity than theoretical or finite element modeling. The process of testing SDVIC neural network analysis and some encouraging preliminary results are presented in this paper. Details are given concerning the processing of SDVIC output data such that it may be used as back propagation neural network (BPNN) input data. The software written to perform this processing and the BPNN algorithm are also discussed. It will be shown that, with limited training, test results indicate an average error in burst pressure prediction of approximately six percent,

Russell, Samuel S.↗

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

A Study on the Effect of Communication Performance on Message-Passing Parallel Programs: Methodology and Case Studies

From a source-program perspective, the performance achieved on distributed/parallel systems is governed by the underlying message-passing library overhead and the network capabilities of the architecture. Studying the impact of changes in these features on the source-program. can have a significant influence in the development of next-generation system designs. In this paper we introduce a simple and robust tool that can be used for this purpose. This tool is based on event-driven simulation of programs that generates a new set of trace events - that preserves causality and partial order - corresponding to the expected execution of the program in the simulated environment. Trace events can be visualized and source-level profile information can be used to pin-point locations of program which are most significantly affected with changing system parameters in the simulated environment. We present a number of examples from the NAS benchmark suite, executed on the Intel Paragon and iPSC/860 that are used to identify and expose performance bottlenecks with varying system parameters. Specific aspects of the system that significantly effect these benchmarks are presented and discussed,

Sarukkai, Sekhar R.↗

Maximum Rates of Olivine Dissolution on Mars

This work is a first step in constraining olivine alteration rates on Mars. By bounding dissolution rates of olivine, we can make inferences about the temporal extent of aqueous alteration on the surface. Several hypothesized low-temperature surface aqueous alteration processes include valley network formation from release of groundwater during impact or gully formation from snow melt, both of which may occur over a period of several thousand years. Outflow channels may have formed during brief floods lasting less than a year. If large bodies of water were present during a warm, wet period, large standing bodies of water may have been present for 104 to 109 years. High-temperature alteration processes include hydrothermal activity associated with impacts and magmatic features. These features may remain active for 104 to 106 years. Table 2 summarizes speculated duration times of these aqueous processes. For comparison, we have determined minimum olivine residence times (time until complete dissolution) for 1 mm diameter particles to range from much less than one year to approximately 5,000 years.

J D Stopar↗

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a↗

Cognitive Performance in Operational Environments

Optimal cognition during complex and sustained operations is a critical component for success in current and future military operations. "Cognitive Performance, Judgment, and Decision-making" (CPJD) is a newly organized U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command research program focused on sustaining operational effectiveness of Future Force Warriors by developing paradigms through which militarily-relevant, higher-order cognitive performance, judgment, and decision-making can be assessed and sustained in individuals, small teams, and leaders of network-centric fighting units. CPJD evaluates the impact of stressors intrinsic to military operational environments (e.g., sleep deprivation, workload, fatigue, temperature extremes, altitude, environmental/physiological disruption) on military performance, evaluates noninvasive automated methods for monitoring and predicting cognitive performance, and investigates pharmaceutical strategies (e.g., stimulant countermeasures, hypnotics) to mitigate performance decrements. This manuscript describes the CPJD program, discusses the metrics utilized to relate militarily applied research findings to academic research, and discusses how the simulated combat capabilities of a synthetic battle laboratory may facilitate future cognitive performance research.

Russo, Michael↗

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗