Multilevel Uncertainty Quantification Using CFD and OpenFAST Simulations of the SWiFT Facility.
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Emerging technologies present a unique set of challenges to operators and regulators. Although emerging technologies can be used to strengthen nuclear security systems, they also can increase risks to nuclear facilities. The disruptive nature of emerging technologies could also leave operators unprepared for threats to nuclear materials or facilities. To address the potentially dangerous consequences associated with these innovations, strong adaptive mechanisms and international cooperation on threat mitigation and technological integration are vital. This paper examines the nuclear security implications of emerging technologies from an institutional (as opposed to technology-specific) perspective. Drawing on insights from a recent workshop series hosted by the Stimson Center and the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Global Material Security, as well as research funded by Global Material Security and separate research conducted by Stimson, the paper begins with a definition of emerging technology that bounds the scope of the problem while leaving some margin for expert interpretation. The subsequent sections highlight the challenges as well as potential benefits that these technologies pose at each level of the nuclear security establishment, from the operators of sites hosting radiological or nuclear material, to regulators and national policy makers, to international institutions. Each section also includes specific recommendations for incorporating emerging technologies into radiological and nuclear security planning.
Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.
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Medium-voltage grid-tied systems often use a cascaded H-bridge multi-level active front-end. In this converter, dc link bus capacitors play an important role in stabilizing the converter and enabling both active and reactive power injections. The present work provides analytical expressions for the capacitor current, which are essential for optimizing system design (especially capacitor size vs. lifetime). Then, the expression is incorporated into the grid connected bidirectional power system model. Consequently, this work contributes to the guiding principles to choose accurate dc link capacitor ratings against grid-side power delivery requirements. DC-link capacitors come with an expiration date which is dependent on the operating power and voltage values. Lack of information about the lifetime of the dc-link capacitor creates uncertainty in the duration of online operation of the converter, thus increasing the probability of a contingency outage. The lifetime of the capacitor can range from only a few seconds of online operation of the station due to under-sizing, to a compromised quality of power flowing through other solid state devices which may not have been designed for the transients that are caused by over-sizing of the dc-link capacitor. A better estimate of the lifetime of these capacitors can help maximize usage and maintain scheduled outages more efficiently, without disruption in service.
Conventional multilevel inverters, such as neutralpoint-clamped and T-type inverters, have gained popularity in electric vehicle applications due to their advantages, including high voltage range, high power capability, low switching losses, low total harmonic distortion, and low electromagnetic interference. However, these traditional multilevel inverters require a neutral point connection to generate a zero-voltage vector. The neutral point current oscillates at three times the fundamental frequency, leading to voltage imbalance and overvoltage stress on the power modules. Additionally, the use of two stacked DC-link capacitors increases the volume required for the same overall capacitance and complicates packaging due to ripple current and heat dissipation from separate components. This is a significant concern for traction drive units, where space is limited. In this paper, a neutral-point-less multilevel dual threephase inverter topology is investigated for traction inverter applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed topology effectively retains the benefits of multilevel operation while utilizing a single DC-link capacitor. The inverter model was simulated in conjunction with an industry-standard battery model to evaluate the potential for capacitor size reduction compared to a conventional three-level inverter.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. In particular, the eye is a signature feature of a mature TC. Therefore, knowing the eyes’ locations and movements is crucial for both operational weather forecasts and climate risk assessments. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been introduced to study the critical points of time-varying vector fields. The framework quantifies the robustness (i.e., structural stability) of critical points across varying neighborhoods. By relating the multilevel robustness with critical point tracking, the framework has demonstrated its potential in cyclone tracking. An advantage is that it identifies cyclonic features using only 2D wind vector fields, which is encouraging as most tracking algorithms require multiple dynamic and thermodynamic variables at different altitudes. A disadvantage is that the framework does not scale well computationally for datasets containing a large number of cyclones. Herein this paper introduces a topologically robust physics-informed tracking framework (TROPHY) for TC tracking. The main idea is to integrate physical knowledge of TC to drastically improve the computational efficiency of multilevel robustness framework for large-scale climate datasets. First, during preprocessing, we propose a physics-informed feature selection strategy to filter 90% of critical points that are short-lived and have low stability, thus preserving good candidates for TC tracking. Second, during in-processing, we impose constraints during the multilevel robustness computation to focus only on physics-informed neighborhoods of TCs. We apply TROPHY to 30 years of 2D wind fields from reanalysis data in ERA5 and generate a number of TC tracks. In comparison with the observed tracks, we demonstrate that TROPHY can capture TC characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, latitudes with maximum intensity, and genesis) that are comparable to and sometimes even better than a well-validated TC tracking algorithm that requires multiple dynamic and thermodynamic scalar fields.
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
PAO is a Python-based package for Adversarial Optimization. The goal of this package is to provide a general modeling and analysis capability for bilevel, trilevel and other multilevel optimization forms that express adversarial dynamics. PAO integrates two different modeling abstractions: 1. Algebraic models extend the modeling concepts in the Pyomo algebraic modeling language to express problems with an intuitive algebraic syntax. Thus, we expect that this modeling abstraction will commonly be used by PAO end-users. 2. Compact models express objective and constraints in a manner that is typically used to express the mathematical form of these problems (e.g. using vector and matrix data types). PAO denes custom Multilevel Problem Representations (MPRs) that simplify the implementation of solvers for bilevel, trilevel and other multilevel optimization problems.
Multilevel integration is a technique used in lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) simulations, where the correlation functions are decomposed into factors that depend only on fields localized within specific lattice subdomains. The approach significantly improves the efficiency of the calculations because the factors can be independently integrated. The main challenge in implementing multilevel integration is that the standard formulation of the LQCD action is not local in the presence of fermions. However, past studies have shown that approximations of the quark propagator and the fermionic determinant, which depend on the gauge fields within specific subdomains, can still be effective. We will present the current progress in supporting domain decomposition within the Chroma software, which is necessary for implementing multilevel integration approaches. Most of the efforts have focused on extending the Chroma code base to efficiently manipulate subdomains for lattice fields and operators, as well as performing inversions and eigendecompositions within these domains.
Nanowire/nanotube memristor devices provide great potential for random-access high-density resistance storage. However, fabricating high-quality and stable memristors is still challenging. This paper reports multileveled resistance states of tellurium (Te) nanotube based on the clean-room free femtosecond laser nano-joining method. The temperature for the entire fabrication process was maintained below 190 °C. A femtosecond laser joining technique was used to form nanowire memristor units with enhanced properties. Femtosecond (fs) laser-irradiated silver-tellurium nanotube-silver structures resulted in plasmonic-enhanced optical joining with minimal local thermal effects. This produced a junction between the Te nanotube and the silver film substrate with enhanced electrical contacts. Noticeable changes in memristor behavior were observed after fs laser irradiation. Capacitor-coupled multilevel memristor behavior was observed. Compared to previous metal oxide nanowire-based memristors, the reported Te nanotube memristor system displayed a nearly two-order stronger current response. The research displays that the multileveled resistance state is rewritable with a negative bias.
This paper describes new multilevel acceleration methods for solving the multigroup neu- tron transport eigenvalue problems. These multilevel algorithms use different projection and prolongation operators in the phase space. The Nonlinear Diffusion Acceleration (NDA) method with multiple grids in energy is formulated with the prolongation oper- ator based on multiplication iterative correction and linear-in-energy mapping. Another multilevel NDA method uses the projection operator with coarsening in energy between the high-order transport and low-order NDA equations. The third algorithm is formu- lated with the partial-current based CMFD low-order equations and applies projection operators in space and energy. The numerical results are presented.
A Lyapunov energy function based circulating current reduction scheme for a back to back modular multilevel converter based system for a microgrid application has been proposed in this digest. In order to ensure no circulating or zero sequence currents within the modules, the dynamics from one leg of the converter to the other are evaluated. A Lyapunov energy function is then developed and utilizing the circulating current dynamics of the converter the overall control law is implemented. In this digest a decentralized hierarchical control architecture has been implemented for the main current control; where the outer loop or the central controller implements the higher level grid interconnection functions as per IEEE 1547-2018 standards and the inner loop based on synchronous reference frame implements the current control architecture. The inner loops' outputs are the commanded converter voltages either on either side which are augmented by the Lyapunov energy function based circulating current suppression architecture. To evaluate the efficacy of the overall system, the overall system is modeled around a 300kVA back to back SiC multilevel modular converter used as a direct-connected medium voltage (MV) grid intertie based on MATLAB/Simulink domain. Several important case studies are presented in this paper to prove the effectiveness of the proposed architecture. case study results are presented.
The efficient solution of sparse, linear systems that arise through the discretization of partial differential equations remains a key challenge for a range of high performance scientific simulations. One approach for reducing data movement and improving performance is by exposing and exploiting structure in a problem through the use of robust structured multilevel solvers. By choosing coarsening that preserves the structure of the problem, these methods maintain efficient structured computation and communication throughout the multigrid hierarchy. However, when coarsening is not permitted to be dependent on the operator, anisotropy must be addressed by the smoother — producing error compatible for coarse-grid correction with structured coarsening. Here, the components required in a scalable parallel structured solver are described with a focus on memory and communication efficiency of robust smoothers. While the implementation of communication and memory reduction techniques in smoothers integrated in a complete 3D solver present a significant engineering challenge, a novel approach is proposed that addresses these challenges systematically through a change to the solver’s execution model. Enabled by user-level threading paired with a set of data and communication abstractions, this approach permits seamless aggregation of communication in plane smoothers — directly reusing code for a 2D distributed multilevel cycle. Results show an effective reduction in communication costs for coarse-grid problems, and result in a speedup of 8.7x in smoothing routines shown in Fig. 12 using this approach. This produces a significant improvement to strong scalability while maintaining favorable weak scaling behavior. Finally, a parallel scaling study using a series of refined meshes is included that demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach in an application of interest.
Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.
Trapped ions provide a highly controlled platform for quantum sensors, clocks, simulators, and computers, all of which depend on cooling ions close to their motional ground state. Existing methods like Doppler, resolved sideband, and dark resonance cooling balance trade-offs between the final temperature and cooling rate. A traveling polarization gradient has been shown to cool multiple modes quickly and in parallel, but utilizing a stable polarization gradient can achieve lower ion energies, while also allowing tailorable light-matter interactions in the sub-wavelength regime. In this Letter, we demonstrate cooling of a trapped ion below the Doppler limit using a phase-stable polarization gradient created using trap-integrated photonic devices. At an axial frequency of 2𝜋×1.45 MHz we achieve ⟨𝑛⟩=1.56±0.07 in 150 μs and cooling rates of ∼0.3 quanta/μs. Here, we examine ion dynamics under different polarization gradient phases, detunings, and intensities, showing reasonable agreement between experimental results and a multilevel model. Cooling is fast and power efficient, with lower average motional Fock state occupation when compared to simulated operation under the corresponding running wave configuration. Our results demonstrate a well-controlled test bed for studying the dynamics of multilevel atomic systems in a phase-stable polarization gradient.