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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Safety and effectiveness of a non-electric infant warmer for hypothermia in Rwanda: A cluster-randomized stepped-wedge trial

Background: Neonatal hypothermia is a common source of morbidity and mortality in low resource settings. We developed the Dream Warmer, a low cost, re-usable non-electric infant warmer to prevent and treat hypothermia. Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge trial. The primary aim was to assess the effect on overall euthermia rates of introducing the warmer compared to standard of care in rural Rwandan hospitals. The secondary aims were to assess effects of warmer introduction on mortality, as well as the safety and feasibility of the warmer. Ten district hospitals participated in the study from November 19th 2019 to July 15th 2020. Patients were eligible to use the warmer if they were 1) hypothermic (temp < 36·5 °C) or 2) or at risk of hypothermia (weight < 2·5 kg or estimated post menstrual age < 35 weeks) when Kangaroo Mother Care was not available. An encounter was defined as the data from an individual infant on a single day. Trial of a Non Electric Infant Warmer for Prevention and Treatment of Hypothermia in Rwanda [NCT03890211]. Findings: Over the study period, 3179 patients were enrolled across the ten neonatal wards, yielding 12,748 encounters; 464 unique infants used the warmer 892 times, 79% eligible due to hypothermia. Because of limited study nurse resources, the warmer was used in only 18% of eligible encounters. Despite this low rate of warmer use, the rate of euthermia rose from 51% (95% CI 50–52%) of encounters pre-intervention to 67% (66–68%) post-intervention; p < 0·0001. Among the encounters in which the warmer was used, only 11% (9–13%) remained hypothermic. While mortality rates pre- and post-intervention did not change, mortality rate among those who used the warmer was significantly lower than among those who did not (0·9% vs 2·8%, p = 0·01). Use of the warmer did not affect hyperthermia rates. There were no safety concerns or instances of incorrect warmer use. Interpretation: Introduction of the warmer increased rates of euthermia with no associated safety concerns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of juvenile white sturgeon blade strike survival through a conventional and a novel hydropower turbine

Hydropower is a globally important renewable energy source with profound impacts on aquatic organisms, including direct injury and mortality to fish that move through hydropower facilities. While it is expected that the characteristics of turbine design and operation influence the type, frequency, and magnitude of injuries suffered by entrained fish, few direct comparisons exist to illustrate differences in fish survival outcomes for conventional and novel turbine designs. This study evaluated blade strike-associated injury and mortality rates for juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) passed through a model-scale turbine equipped with a runner having conventional blade profiles (thin, straight leading edges) and the same turbine equipped with a runner designed for improved fish survival (thick, slanted leading edges). In both trials, head and turbine runner rotational speeds were matched to produce five blade peripheral speeds between 15.0 and 27.6 m/s. High-speed video was captured for all turbine passage events. Fish were assessed for injuries following passage, and mortalities were assessed immediately after passage and after 48 h. Conventional runner passage resulted in 42% to 78% survival after 48 h, with approximately one-third of all tested fish killed by severing. Under the same test conditions, immediate and 48 h survival rates through the novel runner were 100% except at the highest speed condition (95.6% survival at 48 h). These results clearly indicate that turbine design has a profound effect on fish survival, and suggest that thoughtful redesign of hydropower equipment could significantly ameliorate the risks of blade strike mortality.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seawater exposure causes hydraulic damage in dying Sitka-spruce trees

Sea-level rise is one of the most critical challenges facing coastal ecosystems under climate change. Observations of elevated tree mortality in global coastal forests are increasing, but the mechanism of salinity-stress induced tree mortality is currently unknown. We monitored progressive mortality and associated gas exchange and hydraulic shifts in Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees located within a salinity gradient under an ecosystem-scale change of seawater exposure in Washington State, USA. Percentage of live foliated crown (PLFC) decreased and tree mortality increased with increasing soil salinity during the study period. A strong reduction in gas exchange and xylem hydraulic conductivity (Ks) occurred during tree death, with an increase of the percentage loss of xylem conductivity (PLC) and turgor loss point (ptlp). Hydraulic and osmotic shifts reflected that hydraulic function declined from seawater exposure and dying trees were unable to support osmotic adjustment. Constrained gas exchange was strongly related to hydraulic damage at both stem and leaf levels. Significant correlations between foliar sodium (Na+) concentration and gas exchange and key hydraulic parameters (Ks, PLC and ptlp ) suggest that cellular injury related to the toxic effects of ion accumulation impacted the physiology of these dying trees. This study provides evidence of toxic effects on cellular function that become manifest in all aspects of plant functioning, leading to unfavourable osmotic and hydraulic conditions.

Zhang, Hongxia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Abstract Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade‐off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Needham, Jessica F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Abstract Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage‐related AGB losses rather than by mortality‐related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand‐level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage‐related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.

Zuleta, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2021

Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) with treatment

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biological response of eelgrass epifauna, Taylor's Sea hare ( Phyllaplysia taylori ) and eelgrass isopod ( Idotea resecata ), to elevated ocean alkalinity

Abstract. Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) approaches are under development to mitigate the effects of climate change by sequestering carbon in stable reservoirs, with the potential co-benefit of local reductions in coastal acidification impacts. One such method is ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE). A specific OAE method is the generation of aqueous alkalinity via electrochemistry to enhance the alkalinity of the receiving water by the extraction of acid from seawater, thereby avoiding the issues of solid dissolution kinetics and the release of impurities into the ocean from alkaline minerals. While electrochemical acid extraction is a promising method for increasing the carbon dioxide sequestration potential of the ocean, the biological effects of increasing seawater alkalinity and pH within an OAE project site are relatively unknown. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by testing the effects of increased pH and alkalinity, delivered in the form of aqueous NaOH, on two eelgrass epifauna in the US Pacific Northwest, Taylor's sea hare (Phyllaplysia taylori) and eelgrass isopod (Idotea resecata), chosen for their ecological importance as salmon prey and for their role in eelgrass ecosystems. Four-day experiments were conducted in closed bottles to allow measurements of the evolution of carbonate species throughout the experiment, with water refreshed twice daily to maintain elevated pH, across pHNBS (NBS standard scale) treatments ranging from 7.8 to 9.3. Sea hares experienced mortality in all pH treatments, ranging from 37 % mortality at pHNBS 7.8 to 100 % mortality at pHNBS 9.3. Isopods experienced lower mortality rates in all treatment groups, ranging from 13 % at pHNBS 7.8 to 21 % at pHNBS 9.3, which did not significantly increase with higher pH treatments. These experiments represent an extreme of constant exposure to elevated pH and alkalinity, which should be considered in the context of both the natural variation and the dilution of alkalinity experienced by marine communities across an OAE project site. Different invertebrate species will likely have different responses to increased pH and alkalinity, depending on their physiological vulnerabilities. Investigation of the potential vulnerabilities of local marine species will help inform the decision-making process regarding mCDR planning and permitting.

marine carbon dioxide removal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Creation of a prototype biomimetic fish to better understand impact trauma caused by hydropower turbine blade strikes

Biomimetic model organisms could be useful surrogates for live animals in many applications if the models have sufficient biofidelity. One such application is for use in field and laboratory tests of fish mortality associated with passage through hydropower turbines. Laboratory trials suggest that blade strikes are especially injurious and often causes mortality when fish are struck by thinner blades moving at higher velocities. Dose-response relationships have been created from these data, but the exact relationship between fish mortality and the actual forces enacted on fish during simulated blade strike testing remains unknown. Here, we describe the methods used to create a prototype biomimetic model fish composed of ballistic gelatin and covered with a surrogate skin to better approximate the biomechanical properties of a fish body. Frozen fish were scanned with high-fidelity laser scanners, and a 3D-printed, reusable mold was created from which to cast our gelatin model. Computed tomography scan data, imaged directly or taken from online data repositories, were also successfully used to create CAD models for use in additive manufacturing of molds. One 3-axis accelerometer was embedded into the gelatin to compare accelerometer data to dose-response data from previous laboratory research on live fish. The resulting model ( i.e. , Gelfish) had a statistically indistinguishable tissue durometer to that of real fish tissue and preliminary blade strike impact testing suggested its overall flexibility was similar to that of live fish. Gelfish was designed with biofidelity as its guiding principle and our results suggest initial experimentation was successful. Future research will include replication of initial Gelfish test results, quantitative measurement of model flexibility relative to real fish, and inclusion of surrogate skeletal structures to enhance biofidelity. Use of more sophisticated sensors would also better quantify the physical forces of blade strike impact and help determine how said forces correlate with rates of mortality observed during tests on live fish.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Is a Prescribed Fire Sufficient to Slow the Spread of Woody Plants in an Infrequently Burned Grassland? A Case Study in Tallgrass Prairie

In many mesic grasslands, such as the central Great Plains in North America, frequent fire is a key regulator of ecological processes. Long periods of infrequent fire facilitate the conversion of herbaceous-dominated grassland to woody-dominated shrubland or woodland. At the Konza Prairie Biological Station in northeast Kansas, one infrequently burned portion of the landscape has undergone transformation from grassland to woodland after nearly 30 yr without fire. In Spring 2017, a prescribed burn was implemented to assess fire effectiveness on woody plant mortality. A postfire census of 3 000+ individual woody plants identified the distribution of species by size (height), topographic position, and slope on the landscape. Mortality and canopy fire damage were calculated for each individual. In lowland locations with near-continuous shrub cover (30.7% of the landscape), woody plants were unaffected by fire. However, in upland and slope locations, where shrubs and trees were sparser, survival probability varied by topographic position and species. In these locations 68% of all woody individuals experienced 90% or greater fire damage to the canopy, with 56% of these individuals exhibiting new canopy regrowth within 2 mo after the fire. Here, the two most abundant woody shrubs, Cornus drummondii and Rhus aromatica, showed high survival at all height classes and landscape positions. The two abundant tree species, Gleditsia triacanthos and Juniperus virginiana, showed increased survival probability with tree height that varied by landscape position. Survival of J. virginiana also varied according to proximity and size of neighboring clonal shrubs, providing a mechanism for persistence of this fire-sensitive tree species even at small height classes. The probability survival curves developed here are useful for managers assessing when to prescribe fire to maximize mortality for J. virginiana and provide insight relevant for broader ecological understanding of woody encroachment within grasslands throughout the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Declining carbohydrate content of Sitka-spruce treesdying from seawater exposure

Abstract Increasing sea levels associated with climate change threaten the survival of coastal forests, yet the mechanisms by which seawater exposure causes tree death remain poorly understood. Despite the potentially crucial role of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in tree survival, their dynamics in the process of death under seawater exposure are unknown. Here we monitored progressive tree mortality and associated NSC storage in Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees dying under ecosystem-scale increases in seawater exposure in western Washington, USA. All trees exposed to seawater, because of monthly tidal intrusion, experienced declining crown foliage during the sampling period, and individuals with a lower percentage of live foliated crown (PLFC) died faster. Tree PLFC was strongly correlated with subsurface salinity and needle ion contents. Total NSC concentrations in trees declined remarkably with crown decline, and reached extremely low levels at tree death (2.4% and 1.6% in leaves and branches, respectively, and 0.4% in stems and roots). Starch in all tissues was almost completely consumed, while sugars remained at a homeostatic level in foliage. The decreasing NSC with closer proximity to death and near zero starch at death are evidences that carbon starvation occurred during Sitka-spruce mortality during seawater exposure. Our results highlight the importance of carbon storage as an indicator of tree mortality risks under seawater exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-scale quantification of anthropogenic, fire, and drought-associated forest disturbances across the continental U.S., 2000–2014

Our understanding of broad-scale forest disturbances under climatic extremes remains incomplete. Drought, as a typical extreme event, is a key driver of forest mortality but there have been no reports on continental-scale quantification of its impact on forest mortality or how it compares to other natural or anthropogenic drivers. Thus, our ability to understand and predict broad-scale carbon cycling in response to changing climate and extreme events is limited. In this study, we applied an attribution approach based on different sources of data to quantify the area and potential carbon loss/transfer in continental U.S. (CONUS) from four types of disturbance: (1) anthropogenic (especially timber harvest); (2) fire; (3) drought-associated; and (4) other from 2000 to 2014. Our results showed that anthropogenic disturbances, fire, drought-associated disturbances, and other disturbances accounted for 54.3, 10.7, 12.7, and 22.3% of total canopy area loss, respectively. Anthropogenic disturbance was the most important driver contributing to 58.1% potential carbon loss/transfer in CONUS for 2000–2014. The potential carbon loss/transfer from natural disturbances (fire, drought, and other) for the same study period accounted for approximately 41.9% of the total loss/transfer from all agents, suggesting that natural disturbances also played a very important role in forest carbon turnover. Potential carbon loss/transfer associated with drought accounted for approximately 11.6% of the total loss/transfer in CONUS, which was of similar magnitude to potential carbon loss/transfer from fire (~11.0%). The other natural disturbance accounted for 19.3% of potential carbon loss/transfer. Our results demonstrated the importance of the impacts of various disturbances on forest carbon stocks at the continental scale, and the drought-associated carbon loss/transfer data developed here could be used for evaluating the performance of predictive models of tree mortality under droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIFFERENTIAL CANID PREDATION OF TRANSLOCATED JUVENILE DESERT TORTOISES AND CHEMICAL SIGNATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FEMALE AND MALE ADULT AND JUVENILE DESERT TORTOISES

Differential predation was observed in a population of 59 translocated juvenile Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) of known sex during a juvenile translocation survival study between September 2012 and November 2017. The main source of mortality (77%; 24 of 31 deaths) was attributed to Coyote (Canis latrans) and Kit Fox (Vulpes macrotis) predation. Predation was skewed with 71% (n = 17) female mortality versus 29% (n = 7) male mortality. We tested the hypothesis that juvenile females smell different than males which leads to increased canid predation. We also explored differences in chemical signatures of resident adult female and male Desert Tortoises. We collected oral, cloacal and chin/forelimb swabs from translocated juvenile and resident adult female and male tortoises during fall 2015 and fall 2017 and analyzed them using headspace gas chromatography/mass spectrometry to determine potential differences in the chemical signatures among the four groups. Standardized chromatographic peak responses were subjected to repeated analyses of variance (ANOVA). For development of artificial scents, mean responses were calculated for each juvenile tortoise from standardized responses representing all collections (i.e., oral, cloacal, and chin/forelimb swabs) and grand means were determined for males and females. Repeated measures ANOVAs clearly demonstrated that the collections of volatiles differed according to age and/or sex depending on the body location of collection. Among the plausibly endogenous volatiles that differed by age, many of them are alcohols. Two field trials using captive Coyotes and one field trial partially within the translocation area were conducted to test if Coyotes showed a preference for female or bias against male synthesized scent. No consistent preference or bias was shown, suggesting that no innate preference for female odor was evident.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal patterns of fine‐root dynamics have little influence on seasonal soil CO 2 efflux in a mixed, mesic forest

Among the contributors to soil CO 2 efflux, there remains uncertainty about the contribution of root activity to the overall soil efflux. Soil water and temperature frequently have been used to predict a large portion of the variation in soil CO 2 efflux. We hypothesized that fine-root dynamics explain most of the remaining variability in soil CO 2 efflux that cannot be explained by soil temperature and water content. We anticipated that seasonal increases in root production, mortality via decomposition, and standing crop would result in corresponding increases in soil CO 2 efflux. We tested our hypotheses by collecting and analyzing two years of minirhizotron and soil chamber CO 2 flux data from plots distributed throughout the Shale Hills Catchment of the Susquehanna-Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in Central Pennsylvania, USA. Here we showed that: (1) seasonal fluctuations in fine-root dynamics yielded only a very small increase in the predictability of soil CO 2 efflux; (2) fine-root mortality effects on soil CO 2 efflux were strongly tied to soil temperature; (3) fluctuations in fine-root presence or standing mass independent of temperature and moisture had little effect on soil CO 2 efflux; and (4) new fine-root length and root length mortality had limited impacts on soil CO 2 efflux rates. We conclude that, at least in temperate forests on rocky soils, characterizing fine-root dynamics may provide only limited improvement in the estimation of soil CO 2 efflux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon starvation is absent regardless of season of burn in Liquidambar styraciflua L.

In the Southeastern United States, the function and stability of pine ecosystems depends on frequent low intensity fires. One of the critical effects of frequent fire is the inhibition of hardwood competition by removing above-ground stems (top-kill). Previous long-term studies have correlated early growing season burns with higher understory mortality when compared to dormant season burns. Seasonal differences in mortality from insufficient carbon reserves in roots after leaf flush were posited as the mechanism but this was never explicitly tested. In this experiment, we burned two-year-old pot-grown sweetgums (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) in the dormant season (February), growing season (May), and compared their physiological responses to plants that were unburned. By the end of the first post-burn growing season, mortality was higher after the dormant season burn than the growing season burn and unburned trees had nearly twice the mass of either the burned treatments. Tissue starch concentrations were similar across all treatments highlighting the resiliency of sweetgum carbon stocks to recover from above-ground stem removal regardless of season. We showed the critical importance of top-killing stems regardless of season of burn. Our findings further suggest that dormant season fires can be more lethal to young sweetgum, possibly due to susceptibility of tender new shoots to freezing damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lifetime risk of suicide among survivors of the atomic bombings of Japan

Abstract Aims The long-term physical health effects of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are well characterised, but the psychological effects remain unclear. Therefore, we sought to determine whether measures of exposure severity, as indirect measures of psychological trauma arising from exposure to the atomic bombings, are associated with suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. Methods The Life Span Study is a prospective cohort study of 93 741 Japanese atomic bomb survivors who were located within 10 km of the hypocentre in Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of the bombings in 1945, and 26 579 residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were not in either city at the time of the bombings, matched to survivors on city, sex and age. Measures of exposure severity included: proximity to the hypocentre, type of shielding between the survivor and the blast and self-reported occurrence of acute radiation and thermal injuries. Date of death was obtained from the Japanese National Family Registry system. Cause of death was obtained from death certificates. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox regression models overall and stratified by sex and age. Results During the 60-year follow-up period (1950–2009), 1150 suicide deaths were recorded among 120 231 participants (23.6 per 100 000 person-years): 510 among 70 092 women (17.2 per 100 000 person-years) and 640 among 50 139 men (33.6 per 100 000 person-years). Overall, there was no association of proximity, type of shielding or the occurrence of acute injuries with suicide mortality. Among those <25 years of age at the time of the bombings, increased suicide risk was observed for survivors outside v . shielded inside any structure (HR: 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.48; interaction p = 0.054) and for those who reported flash burns (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.73; interaction p = 0.025). Sex-stratified analyses indicated that these associations were limited to men. Among women, closer proximity to the hypocentre was associated with a non-significant increase in suicide risk, with a positive association between proximity and suicide risk observed among women <15 years of age (HR: 1.09 per km; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18; interaction p = 0.067). Conclusions Proximity to the hypocentre, shielding and acute injury presence do not generally appear to influence suicide mortality among atomic bomb survivors. However, heterogeneity may exist by age and sex, with younger survivors potentially more sensitive to psychological trauma. Coupled with other studies, our results suggest the importance of long-term monitoring of mental health among young populations exposed to catastrophic events or mass trauma.

Psychiatry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Abstract Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗