Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander
No abstract provided
Chien, Steve A.↗
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Results for “model updating”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander
No abstract provided
Chien, Steve A.↗
Updated weather model captures subtleties of cold-air pool events
Imagine cold air building up inside a valley or other topographic basin, like a cold swimming pool in the atmosphere. Known in meteorology as cold-air pools, or simply cold pools, these events affect wind plant power production in two key ways. Because they are associated with stagnant air and low winds near the ground, cold pools can severely limit wind energy output over periods of hours to days. Then, when cold pools dissolve, known as cold pool “erosion,” increased wind speeds allow wind power production to recover.
Energy↗
Sandia Low-Temperature Plasma Research Facility: Modeling & Simulation Update.
Abstract not provided.
Hopkins, Matthew↗
Reactive Transport Modeling Results Update: EPA1315 OPC Leaching Experiments.
Abstract not provided.
Lopez, Carlos↗
Modeling Results Update: DECOVALEX2023, Task D, Step 1, Experiment 3.
Abstract not provided.
Lopez, Carlos↗
Modeling Results Update: DECOVALEX 2023, Task D, Step 1, Experiment 3.
Abstract not provided.
Lopez, Carlos↗
FY2022 Status Update: A Probabilistic Model for Stress Corrosion Cracking of SNF Dry Storage Canisters
Understanding the potential risk of stress corrosion cracking of spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters has been identified as a knowledge gap for determining the safety of long-term interim storage of spent nuclear fuel. To address this, the DOE is funding a multi-lab DOE effort to understand the timing, occurrence, and consequences of potential canister SCC. Sandia National Laboratories has developed a probabilistic model for canister penetration by SCC. This model has been continuously updated at SNL since 2014. Model uncertainties are treated using a nested loop structure, where the outer loop accounts for uncertainties due to lack of data and the inner aleatoric loop accounts for uncertainties due to variation in nature. By separating uncertainties into these categories, it is possible to focus future work on reducing the most influential epistemic uncertainties. Several experimental studies have already been performed to improve the modeling approach through expanded process understanding and improved model parameterization. The resulting code is physics-based and intended to inform future work by identifying (1) important modeling assumptions, (2) experimental data needs, and (3) necessary model developments. In this document, several of the sub-models in the probabilistic SCC model have been exercised, and the intermediate results, as the model progresses from one sub-model to the next, are presented. Evaluating the sub-models in this manner provides a better understanding of sub-model outputs and has identified several unintended consequences of model assumptions or parameterizations, requiring updates to the modeling approach. The following updates have been made, and future updates have been identified.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis
There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.
Uncertainty quantification↗
Space-Based Sensorweb Monitoring of Wildfires in Thailand
We describe efforts to apply sensorweb technologies to the monitoring of forest fires in Thailand. In this approach, satellite data and ground reports are assimilated to assess the current state of the forest system in terms of forest fire risk, active fires, and likely progression of fires and smoke plumes. This current and projected assessment can then be used to actively direct sensors and assets to best acquire further information. This process operates continually with new data updating models of fire activity leading to further sensing and updating of models. As the fire activity is tracked, products such as active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts are automatically delivered to relevant parties.We describe the current state of the Thailand Fire Sensorweb which utilizes the MODIS-based FIRMS system to track active fires and trigger Earth Observing One / Advanced Land Imager to acquire imagery and produce active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts. We describe ongoing work to integrate additional sensor sources and generate additional products.
sensorweb↗
Importance of different parameterization changes for the updated dust cycle modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 6.1)
Abstract. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Importance of Different Parameterization Changes for the Updated Dust Cycle Modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (Version 6.1)
The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.
mineral dust parameterizations↗
From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview
The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.
Orion↗
Characterizing DebriSat Fragments: So Many Fragments, So Much Data, and So Little Time
To improve prediction accuracy, the DebriSat project was conceived by NASA and DoD to update existing standard break-up models. Updating standard break-up models require detailed fragment characteristics such as physical size, material properties, bulk density, and ballistic coefficient. For the DebriSat project, a representative modern LEO spacecraft was developed and subjected to a laboratory hypervelocity impact test and all generated fragments with at least one dimension greater than 2 mm are collected, characterized and archived. Since the beginning of the characterization phase of the DebriSat project, over 130,000 fragments have been collected and approximately 250,000 fragments are expected to be collected in total, a three-fold increase over the 85,000 fragments predicted by the current break-up model. The challenge throughout the project has been to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the characteristics of each fragment. To this end, the post hypervelocity-impact test activities, which include fragment collection, extraction, and characterization, have been designed to minimize handling of the fragments. The procedures for fragment collection, extraction, and characterization were painstakingly designed and implemented to maintain the post-impact state of the fragments, thus ensuring the integrity and accuracy of the characterization data. Each process is designed to expedite the accumulation of data, however, the need for speed is restrained by the need to protect the fragments. Methods to expedite the process such as parallel processing have been explored and implemented while continuing to maintain the highest integrity and value of the data. To minimize fragment handling, automated systems have been developed and implemented. Errors due to human inputs are also minimized by the use of these automated systems. This paper discusses the processes and challenges involved in the collection, extraction, and characterization of the fragments as well as the time required to complete the processes. The objective is to provide the orbital debris community an understanding of the scale of the effort required to generate and archive high quality data and metadata for each debris fragment 2 mm or larger generated by the DebriSat project.
Shiotani, B.↗
Core Model Proposal #359: Hydrogen and Transportation Technology Update
This core model proposal updates modeling structures, key technology assumptions, and data sources for a detailed representation of hydrogen in GCAM’s energy system, including production, transmission and distribution, and consumption in hydrogen end-use sectors (buildings, transportation, industry).
08 HYDROGEN↗
A biokinetic model for systemic sodium
This paper describes an updated biokinetic model for systemic sodium (Na), developed for use in a series of reports by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) on occupational intake of radionuclides. In contrast to the ICRP's previous model for intake of radio-sodium by workers, the updated model depicts realistic directions of movement of Na in the body including recycling of activity between blood and tissues. The updated model structure facilitates extension of the baseline transfer coefficients for adults to different age groups and to special exposure scenarios such as transfer of radio-sodium from the mother to the foetus or the nursing infant. Dose coefficients for 22Na and 24Na based on the updated model generally do not differ greatly from those based on the ICRP's previous Na model when both models are connected to the ICRP's latest dosimetry system. The main exception is that the updated model yields roughly twofold higher dose coefficients for endosteal bone surface than does the previous model due to the dosimetrically cautious assumption in the updated model that exchangeable Na in bone resides on bone surface.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
Hybrid Active/Passive Control of Sound Radiation from Panels with Constrained Layer Damping and Model Predictive Feedback Control
There has been considerable interest over the past several years in applying feedback control methods to problems of structural acoustics. One problem of particular interest is the control of sound radiation from aircraft panels excited on one side by a turbulent boundary layer (TBL). TBL excitation appears as many uncorrelated sources acting on the panel, which makes it difficult to find a single reference signal that is coherent with the excitation. Feedback methods have no need for a reference signal, and are thus suited to this problem. Some important considerations for the structural acoustics problem include the fact that the required controller bandwidth can easily extend to several hundred Hertz, so a digital controller would have to operate at a few kilohertz. In addition, aircraft panel structures have a reasonably high modal density over this frequency range. A model based controller must therefore handle the modally dense system, or have some way to reduce the bandwidth of the problem. Further complicating the problem is the fact that the stiffness and dynamic properties of an aircraft panel can vary considerably during flight due to altitude changes resulting in significant resonant frequency shifts. These considerations make the tradeoff between robustness to changes in the system being controlled and controller performance especially important. Recent papers concerning the design and implementation of robust controllers for structural acoustic problems highlight the need to consider both performance and robustness when designing the controller. While robust control methods such as H1 can be used to balance performance and robustness, their implementation is not easy and requires assumptions about the types of uncertainties in the plant being controlled. Achieving a useful controller design may require many tradeoff studies of different types of parametric uncertainties in the system. Another approach to achieving robustness to plant changes is to make the controller adaptive. For example, a mathematical model of the plant could be periodically updated as the plant changes, and the feedback gains recomputed from the updated model. To be practical, this approach requires a simple plant model that can be updated quickly with reasonable computational requirements. A recent paper by the authors discussed one way to simplify a feedback controller, by reducing the number of actuators and sensors needed for good performance. The work was done on a tensioned aircraft-style panel excited on one side by TBL flow in a low speed wind tunnel. Actuation was provided by a piezoelectric (PZT) actuator mounted on the center of the panel. For sensing, the responses of four accelerometers, positioned to approximate the response of the first radiation mode of the panel, were summed and fed back through the controller. This single input-single output topology was found to have nearly the same noise reduction performance as a controller with fifteen accelerometers and three PZT patches. This paper extends the previous results by looking at how constrained layer damping (CLD) on a panel can be used to enhance the performance of the feedback controller thus providing a more robust and efficient hybrid active/passive system. The eventual goal is to use the CLD to reduce sound radiation at high frequencies, then implement a very simple, reduced order, low sample rate adaptive controller to attenuate sound radiation at low frequencies. Additionally this added damping smoothes phase transitions over the bandwidth which promotes robustness to natural frequency shifts. Experiments were conducted in a transmission loss facility on a clamped-clamped aluminum panel driven on one side by a loudspeaker. A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm, which is suited to online adaptation of its parameters, was used in single input-single output and multiple input-single output configurations. Because this was a preliminary look at the potential constrained layer damping for adaptive control, static feedback control with no online adaptation was used. Two configurations of CLD in addition to a bare panel configuration were studied. For each CLD configuration, two sensor arrangements for the feedback controller were compared. The first arrangement used fifteen accelerometers on the panel to estimate the responses of the first six radiation modes of the panel. The second sensor arrangement was simpler, using the summed responses of only four accelerometers to approximate the response of the first radiation mode of the panel. In all cases a PZT patch was mounted at the center of the panel for control input. The performance of the controller was quantified using the responses of the fifteen accelerometers on the panel to estimate radiated sound power. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the GPC algorithm and the experimental setup. The experimental results are discussed next, comparing the CLD and sensor configurations, followed by discussion and conclusions.
Cabell, Randolph H.↗
Updated Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower (2023)
The "Updated Baseline Cost Model (BCM) for Hydropower" is an empirical model for estimating the costs of US hydropower projects in six categories (Non-Powered Dam (NPD), New Stream Development (NSD), Canal/Conduit, Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH), Capacity Expansion, Generator Rewind). The model equations have been estimated with data on existing or planned projects obtained from various sources. NOTE: This is a macro-enabled workbook, so Excel may block it on the first opening. In that case: 1. Save the workbook to a local directory 2. Right-click on the workbook in the local directory and select “Properties” 3. Then check “Unblock” at the bottom of the “General” tab.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗