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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rotating cylinder electrode in reactive CO 2 capture: Identifying active C species via transport, VLE models and kinetics

Here, this article explores technical challenges and potential methodologies for understanding electrochemical Reactive CO 2 Capture (RCC) mechanisms. RCC offers potential energy cost advantages by directly converting captured CO 2 into fuels and chemicals, unlike traditional carbon capture and utilization (CCU) processes that require sequential capture, concentration, and compression. However, direct conversion of captured CO 2 introduces complexity due to additional equilibrium buffer reactions, making it challenging to identify active species for reduction in electrochemical studies. This article discusses methods to integrate transport, thermodynamics, and kinetics concepts to identify active carbon sources in RCC. Vapor‐Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) and transport models are validated against experimental results obtained in a gastight rotating cylinder electrode reactor and are shown as useful tools for studying RCC in heterogeneous electrocatalysts across different capture agents, solvents, and temperatures. This article establishes an experimental framework for advancing research in electrochemical RCC.

Electrocatalysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Bonding Model for Gold(I) Species: The Importance of Pauli Repulsion Revealed in a Gold(I)‐Cyclobutadiene Complex

Abstract Understanding the bonding of gold(I) species has been central to the development of gold(I) catalysis. Herein, we present the synthesis and characterization of the first gold(I)‐cyclobutadiene complex, accompanied with bonding analysis by state‐of‐the‐art energy decomposition analysis methods. Analysis of possible coordination modes for the new species not only confirms established characteristics of gold(I) bonding, but also suggests that Pauli repulsion is a key yet hitherto overlooked element. Additionally, we obtain a new perspective on gold(I)‐bonding by comparison of the gold(I)‐cyclobutadiene to congeners stabilized by p‐, d‐, and f‐block metals. Consequently, we refine the gold(I) bonding model, with a delicate interplay of Pauli repulsion and charge transfer as the key driving force for various coordination motifs. Pauli repulsion is similarly determined as a significant interaction in Au I ‐alkyne species, corroborating this revised understanding of Au I bonding.

Wong, Zeng Rong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Bonding Model for Gold(I) Species: The Importance of Pauli Repulsion Revealed in a Gold(I)–Cyclobutadiene Complex

Understanding the bonding of gold(I) species has been central to the development of gold(I) catalysis. Herein, we present the synthesis and characterization of the first gold(I)-cyclobutadiene complex, accompanied with bonding analysis by state-of-the-art energy decomposition analysis methods. Analysis of possible coordination modes for the new species not only confirms established characteristics of gold(I) bonding, but also suggests that Pauli repulsion is a key yet hitherto overlooked element. Additionally, we obtain a new perspective on gold(I)-bonding by comparison of the gold(I)-cyclobutadiene to congeners stabilized by p-, d-, and f-block metals. Consequently, we refine the gold(I) bonding model, with a delicate interplay of Pauli repulsion and charge transfer as the key driving force for various coordination motifs. Finally, Pauli repulsion is similarly determined as a significant interaction in Au I -alkyne species, corroborating this revised understanding of Au I bonding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Kinetic and Transport Modeling for Entry Flows in Hydrogen-Helium Atmospheres

Several different thermochemical models for H2/He mixtures are used to simulate a 1-D shock in a viscous CFD code at conditions relevant for hypersonic entry into the ice and gas giants. These models range from a 6-species, 1-temperature (1-T) model, to more complex 17 and 25-species state-to-state (StS) models. Corresponding radiance profiles for each of these models are then computed using a radiation code, and results are compared to experimental data from the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. Overall, the 6-species model with a quasi-steady state (QSS) solver for atomic H and modified ionization rates, along with the 17 and 25-species StS models, are found to reproduce the magnitude of the radiance seen in the EAST experiments reasonably accurately. Two additional changes to the modeling of species diffusion fluxes are also investigated: the exclusion of a ∇W term, as well as the inclusion of Soret/ Dufour effects. It is determined that these changes to the transport modeling have a negligible impact on the flowfield and therefore the radiance predictions for the H2/He shock conditions considered in this study.

Outer planets↗
NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Stratospheric Constituents: Reactive Species That Regulate Ozone

Photochemical loss of stratospheric ozone occurs primarily by catalytic cycles whose rates are limited by the concentration of OH, HO2, NO2, ClO, and/or BrO as well as the concentration of either atomic oxygen or of ozone itself. Once the concentrations of these gases are established, the photochemical loss rate of O3 depends on the rate coefficient of only a handful of key reactions. We have developed a method for testing our understanding of stratospheric ozone photochemistry by comparing measured and modeled concentrations of reactive hydrogen, nitrogen, chlorine and bromine radicals using a photochemical steady state model constrained by observed concentrations of long-lived precursors (e.g., NO(y), Cl(y), Br(y), O3, H2O, CH4) and environmental parameters such as ozone column, reflectivity, and aerosol surface area. We will show based on analyses of observations obtained by aircraft, balloon, and satellite platforms during the POLARIS campaign that our overall understanding of the processes that regulate these radical species is very good. The most notable current discrepancies are the tendency to underestimate observed NO2 by 15 to 30% for air masses that experience near continuous solar illumination over a 24 hour period and the tendency to underestimate observed OH and H02 by about 10 to 20% during midday and by much larger amounts at high solar zenith angle (SZA > 85). Possible resolutions to these discrepancies will be discussed. This study was carried out in close collaboration with many members of the POLARIS science team.

Salawitch, Ross J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolutionary lineage explains trait variation among 75 coexisting grass species

Summary Evolutionary history plays a key role driving patterns of trait variation across plant species. For scaling and modeling purposes, grass species are typically organized into C 3 vs C 4 plant functional types (PFTs). Plant functional type groupings may obscure important functional differences among species. Rather, grouping grasses by evolutionary lineage may better represent grass functional diversity. We measured 11 structural and physiological traits in situ from 75 grass species within the North American tallgrass prairie. We tested whether traits differed significantly among photosynthetic pathways or lineages (tribe) in annual and perennial grass species. Critically, we found evidence that grass traits varied among lineages, including independent origins of C 4 photosynthesis. Using a rigorous model selection approach, tribe was included in the top models for five of nine traits for perennial species. Tribes were separable in a multivariate and phylogenetically controlled analysis of traits, owing to coordination of important structural and ecophysiological characteristics. Our findings suggest grouping grass species by photosynthetic pathway overlooks variation in several functional traits, particularly for C 4 species. These results indicate that further assessment of lineage‐based differences at other sites and across other grass species distributions may improve representation of C 4 species in trait comparison analyses and modeling investigations.

Donnelly, Ryan C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Predictive Simulation Capability Development for Crater Evolution and Ejecta in Continuum/Rarefied Flows

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial plume surface interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In this paper, an overview and brief status on one area of capability development through this GCD PSI project, capturing the effects of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets, is presented with respect to capability enhancements, predictive tool maturation, and validation of the Loci/GGFS tool against PSI data in Martian and Lunar environments. Axisymmetric modeling, overset mesh/moving mesh, and multiple-species mixture modeling capabilities are verified against Loci/CHEM, and a demonstration of the capabilities is presented for the Apollo Lunar Module.

Andrew Weaver↗
DOE OSTI2021

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

BrazilClim : The overcoming of limitations of pre‐existing bioclimate data

Abstract Species distribution modelling has become instrumental in assessing the influence of environmental conditions on the occurrence or abundance of taxa. The set of environmental layers used for this purpose is a crucial aspect, for which different climate‐based (bioclimatic) datasets have been recently developed. These bioclimatic variables result from combinations of precipitation and temperatures surfaces. Here, we explored both the performance and possibility of improving some of the currently available bioclimatic databases, through an evaluation of the precipitation and temperatures surfaces used to generate them. For this purpose, we used a combination of statistic and graphic approaches. We focused on Brazil, not only due to its natural megadiversity, but also due to its continental size and orographic heterogeneity: an excellent ground for refining methods replicable elsewhere. We found a better match between the climatic data measured on‐field and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43 v7) in the case of precipitation, and the surfaces provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the case of temperatures, sources uncommonly used for species niche modelling. We gauge‐calibrated the best performing surfaces using machine‐learning algorithms and generated corrected surfaces that allowed us to create BrazilClim: a database of bioclimatic variables, based on improved primary surfaces, which will result in more assertive predicted distributions and more actual pictures of the species' ecological requirements for megadiverse Brazil, an approach replicable elsewhere. All primary and bioclimatic surfaces generated for this study may be freely downloaded.

Ramoni‐Perazzi, Paolo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chlamydomonas as a model for reactive oxygen species signaling and thiol redox regulation in the green lineage

While the maintenance of redox balance is important for all organisms, the energy balance in the chloroplast is particularly tightly linked to the overall cellular redox status in photosynthetic organisms. Excess light can cause overreduction of the photosynthetic electron transport chain, which, when unchecked, results in the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that can oxidize cellular components including nucleic acids, proteins, and lipids (Li et al., 2009). A photosynthetic cell possesses multiple layers of defense against oxidative stress, such as antioxidant enzymes (Foyer and Noctor, 2005) and alternative electron transfer pathways (Alric and Johnson, 2017). At the same time, ROS can function as important signals that mediate responses to biotic and abiotic stresses (Apel and Hirt, 2004). Reversibly oxidizable small molecules and proteins can serve as ROS sinks and signals and are re-reduced by multiple mechanisms. For example, the ascorbate–glutathione (GSH) cycle is central in controlling ROS levels and regenerating/reducing oxidized cellular redox agents (Figure 1A; reviewed by Foyer and Noctor, 2011). The functions of many proteins can be regulated by the redox state of cysteine residues, such as the formation or reduction of disulfides by thioredoxins (TRX) (Buchanan, 1991) and glutaredoxins (Michelet et al., 2013b; Figure 1, B and C).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Simulations of a molecular plasma in collisional-radiative nonequilibrium

A code for the simulation of nonequilibrium plasmas is being developed, with the capability to couple the plasma fluid-dynamics for a single fluid with a collisional-radiative model, where electronic states are treated as separate species. The model allows for non-Boltzmann distribution of the electronic states. Deviations from the Boltzmann distributions are expected to occur in the rapidly ionizing regime behind a strong shock or in the recombining regime during a fast expansion. This additional step in modeling complexity is expected to yield more accurate predictions of the nonequilibrium state and the radiation spectrum and intensity. An attempt at extending the code to molecular plasma flows is presented. The numerical techniques used, the thermochemical model, and the results of some numerical tests are described.

Cambier, Jean-Luc↗
NASA NTRS1991

A flowfield coupled excitation and radiation model for nonequilibrium reacting flows

A second-order method is developed to correct a radiative transfer analysis for possible local thermodynamic nonequilibrium (LTNE) effects. It uses a two-species excitation model for nitrogen with chemical raction rates obtained from the Kunc and Soon (1989) atomic transition method. A vibrational energy equation is added to calculate a third temperature, which describes the average vibrational energy state of all the diatomic species. A new diffusional model is developed to improve the calculation of the diffusional fluxes of mass and energy, and second-order radiative correction factors are developed for a two-step excitation model for atomic nitrogen. Radiation reaching the wall with the second-order LTNE model shows a greater IR-line contribution and less UV-line center absorption than the first-order one.

Gally, Thomas A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resource Occurrence and Productivity in Existing and Proposed Wind Energy Lease Areas on the Northeast US Shelf

States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass ( Centropristis striata ), summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus ), and Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗