Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

An Unusual Transmission Spectrum for the Sub-Saturn KELT-11b Suggestive of a Subsolar Water Abundance

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 μm, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 μm secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free-retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally ≲0.1× solar (0.001–0.7× solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical-equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find that they, too, prefer low metallicities ([M/H] ≲ -2, consistent with the free-retrieval results). However, all of the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution because they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find that the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b’s dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b’s composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Archetype-based Redshift Estimation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Survey

We present a computationally efficient galaxy archetype-based redshift estimation and spectral classification method for the Dark Energy Survey Instrument (DESI) survey. The DESI survey currently relies on a redshift fitter and spectral classifier using a linear combination of principal component analysis–derived templates, which is very efficient in processing large volumes of DESI spectra within a short time frame. However, this method occasionally yields unphysical model fits for galaxies and fails to adequately absorb calibration errors that may still be occasionally visible in the reduced spectra. Our proposed approach improves upon this existing method by refitting the spectra with carefully generated physical galaxy archetypes combined with additional terms designed to absorb data reduction defects and provide more physical models to the DESI spectra. We test our method on an extensive data set derived from the survey validation (SV) and Year 1 (Y1) data of DESI. Our findings indicate that the new method delivers marginally better redshift success for SV tiles while reducing catastrophic redshift failure by 10%–30%. At the same time, results from millions of targets from the main survey show that our model has relatively higher redshift success and purity rates (0.5%–0.8% higher) for galaxy targets while having similar success for QSOs. These improvements also demonstrate that the main DESI redshift pipeline is generally robust. Additionally, it reduces the false-positive redshift estimation by 5%–40% for sky fibers. We also discuss the generic nature of our method and how it can be extended to other large spectroscopic surveys, along with possible future improvements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of the indoor near-field aerosol transmission in a model commercial office building

To evaluate the exposure potential of infectious aerosols containing SARS-CoV-2 in an office building setting, synthetic test aerosols were used to experimental study airborne particle transmission in a multizone small office test building at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Nine measurement points in a single zone using active aerosol impactors report that the coefficient of variation of the time-averaged concentration is <10% in two campaigns and < 15% in one campaign, so a nearly well-mixed condition was noted. To understand the effect of HVAC system operation on the dynamic concentration of aerosols in office spaces, an aerosol transport model that includes factors such as outside air (OA) ratio, filtration, return air fraction, transport loss in air ducts, and particle deposition has been developed. The results of model fitting demonstrate strong agreement with experimental data. Overall, our investigation finds the return air fraction effects outweigh other mechanisms for the aerosol recirculation in this study, and the impact of air change rate (ACR) is more important than the small particle deposition for aerosol removal. Because ACR dominates the aerosol transport, the full model can be simplified to just one factor, the ACR, while maintaining an acceptable representation of the experimental data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified and consistent structure growth measurements from joint ACT, SPT and \textit{Planck} CMB lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv σ_8\,(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $σ_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $Λ$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling suggests that virion production cycles within individual cells is key to understanding acute hepatitis B virus infection kinetics

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection kinetics in immunodeficient mice reconstituted with humanized livers from inoculation to steady state is highly dynamic despite the absence of an adaptive immune response. To recapitulate the multiphasic viral kinetic patterns, we developed an agent-based model that includes intracellular virion production cycles reflecting the cyclic nature of each individual virus lifecycle. The model fits the data well predicting an increase in production cycles initially starting with a long production cycle of 1 virion per 20 hours that gradually reaches 1 virion per hour after approximately 3–4 days before virion production increases dramatically to reach to a steady state rate of 4 virions per hour per cell. Together, modeling suggests that it is the cyclic nature of the virus lifecycle combined with an initial slow but increasing rate of HBV production from each cell that plays a role in generating the observed multiphasic HBV kinetic patterns in humanized mice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling backgrounds for the majorana demonstrator

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is a neutrinoless double-beta decay (0?ß ß ) experiment containing ~30 kg of p-type point contact germanium detectors enriched to 88% in 76Ge and ~14 kg of natural germanium detectors. The detectors are housed in two electroformed copper cryostats and surrounded by a graded passive shield with active muon veto. An extensive radioassay campaign was performed prior to installation to insure the use of ultra-clean materials. The DEMONSTRATOR achieved one of the lowest background rates in the region of the 0?ß ß Q-value, 15.7 ± 1.4 cts/(FWHM t y) from the low-background configuration spanning most of the 64.5 kg-yr active exposure. Nevertheless this background rate is a factor of five higher than the projected background rate. This discrepancy arises from an excess of events from the 232Th decay chain. Background model fits aim to understand this deviation from assay-based projections, potentially determine the source(s) of observed backgrounds, and allow a precision measurement of the two-neutrino double-beta decay half-life. The fits agree with earlier simulation studies, which indicate the origin of the 232Th excess is not from a near-detector component and have informed design decisions for the next-generation LEGEND experiment. Recent findings have narrowed the suspected locations for the excess activity, motivating a final simulation and assay campaign to complete the background model.

Haufe, Christopher R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Model Reduction Driven by Machine Learning for Parametric Advection-Diffusion-Reaction Problems in the Presence of Noisy Data

Abstract We propose a new approach to generate a reliable reduced model for a parametric elliptic problem, in the presence of noisy data. The reference model reduction procedure is the directional HiPOD method, which combines Hierarchical Model reduction with a standard Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, according to an offline/online paradigm. In this paper we show that directional HiPOD looses in terms of accuracy when problem data are affected by noise. This is due to the interpolation driving the online phase, since it replicates, by definition, the noise trend. To overcome this limit, we replace interpolation with Machine Learning fitting models which better discriminate relevant physical features in the data from irrelevant unstructured noise. The numerical assessment, although preliminary, confirms the potentialities of the new approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxidation kinetics of SPS-densified U 3 Si 2 fuels—Microstructure impact

Here, U 3 Si 2 is a potential candidate for accident tolerant fuels because of its high uranium density and excellent thermal conductivity in comparison to UO 2 . However, U 3 Si 2 suffers from oxidation, steam corrosion, and subsequent disintegration/pulverization. The detailed investigation of kinetics that incorporates fundamental treatment of oxidation of U 3 Si 2 is scarcely reported, and the oxidation mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. In this paper, the oxidation behavior of microcrystalline (mc - ) and nanocrystalline (nc - ) U 3 Si 2 have been systematically investigated using a thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) apparatus through a series of isothermal and non-isothermal kinetic studies. The isothermal kinetic study with a model-fitting approach indicates oxidation activation energy of 85 kJ/mol for dense mc - U 3 Si 2 and 96.4 kJ/mol for nc - U 3 Si 2 pellets, while the isoconversional approach leads to an activation energy in the range of 70–85 kJ/mol for mc - U 3 Si 2 and 75–86 kJ/mol for nc - U 3 Si 2 with three most common model-free methods, including Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose, Flynn–Wall–Ozawa, and Friedman methods. The derivation of oxidation activation energies using both isothermal and isoconversional methods highlights the approach to evaluate the oxidation resistance of nuclear materials using TGA quantitatively and makes it possible to compare among various nuclear fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration-free analysis of Li isotope ratios using laser ablation and laser absorption spectroscopy

We introduce a rapid, calibration-free, all-optical method for high-precision lithium isotope ratio measurements in solid materials using laser ablation combined with tunable laser absorption spectroscopy. A new asynchronous acquisition method is used to acquire time-resolved, high-resolution spectra of the 6Li and 7Li D1 and D2 transitions near 671 nm. Isotope ratios and atomic column densities are extracted from measured spectra via a physics-based fitting model including hyperfine structure. Under 1 Torr air, spectra recorded = 0.75 ms after plasma onset exhibit narrow linewidths corresponding to Doppler temperatures = 400 K, enabling resolution of the isotope peaks with high signal-to-noise ratios. Analysis of LiAlO2 samples with varying 6Li:7Li ratios demonstrates isotopic precisions of 0.6–1.7% for spectra acquired in 30 s. Isotope ratios determined from the spectral fits show accuracy within –0.3% to –1.7% of reference ICP-MS measurements without requiring calibration to external standards. By eliminating sample preparation and enabling spatially resolved isotopic mapping, this method offers a rapid analysis approach to lithium isotope determination in solid materials relevant to nuclear energy, safeguards, and geochemistry.

Phillips, Mark C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time infrared spectroscopy coupled with blind source separation for nuclear waste process monitoring

On-line infrared absorbance spectroscopy enables rapid measurement of solution-phase molecular species. Many spectra-to-concentration models exist for spectral data, with some models able to handle overlapping spectral bands and nonlinearities. However, model accuracy is limited by the quality of training data used in model fitting. The process spectra of nuclear waste simulants at the Savannah River Site display incongruity between training and process spectra; the glycolate spectral signature in the training data does not match the glycolate signature in Savannah River National Laboratory process data. A novel blind source separation algorithm is proposed that preprocesses spectral data so that process spectra more closely resemble training spectra, thereby improving model quantification accuracy when unexpected sources of variation appear in process spectra. The novel blind source separation preprocessing algorithm is shown to improve nitrate quantification from an R 2 of 0.934 to 0.988 and from 0.267 to 0.978 in two instances analyzing nuclear waste simulants from the Slurry Receipt Adjustment Tank and Slurry Mix Evaporator cycle at the Savannah River Site.

Crouse, Steven H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The radio loudness of SDSS quasars from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey: ubiquitous jet activity and constraints on star formation

ABSTRACT We examine the distribution of radio emission from ∼42 000 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, as measured in the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS). We present a model of the radio luminosity distribution of the quasars that assumes that every quasar displays a superposition of two sources of radio emission: active galactic nuclei (jets) and star formation. Our two-component model provides an excellent match to the observed radio flux density distributions across a wide range of redshifts and quasar optical luminosities; this suggests that the jet-launching mechanism operates in all quasars but with different powering efficiency. The wide distribution of jet powers allows for a smooth transition between the ‘radio-quiet’ and ‘radio-loud’ quasar regimes, without need for any explicit bimodality. The best-fitting model parameters indicate that the star formation rate of quasar host galaxies correlates strongly with quasar luminosity and also increases with redshift at least out to z ∼ 2. For a model where star formation rate scales as $L_{\rm bol}^{\alpha } (1+z)^{\beta }$, we find α = 0.47 ± 0.01 and β = 1.61 ± 0.05, in agreement with far-infrared studies. Quasars contribute ≈0.15 per cent of the cosmic star formation rate density at z = 0.5, rising to 0.4 per cent by z ∼ 2. The typical radio jet power is seen to increase with both increasing optical luminosity and black hole mass independently, but does not vary with redshift, suggesting intrinsic properties govern the production of the radio jets. We discuss the implications of these results for the triggering of quasar activity and the launching of jets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Matter and Binding-Energy Distributions from a Dispersive Optical Model Analysis

We present the first systematic dispersive-optical-model analysis of 16,18 O, 40,48 Ca, 58,64 Ni, 112,124 Sn, and 208 Pb. In all systems, roughly half the total nuclear binding energy is associated with the most-bound 10% of the total nucleon density. The extracted neutron skins reveal interplay of asymmetry, Coulomb, and shell effects on the skin thickness. Here, our results indicate that optical-model fits on isotopic pairs are effective for constraining nuclear structural quantities otherwise difficult to observe experimentally.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bay Area Regional Energy: Network Integrated Commercial Retrofits (BRICR) Project. Final Report

The BRICR project applied large-scale building energy modeling concepts with the aim of reducing the cost of energy efficiency targeting, design, and project development, and measurement of energy savings for energy efficiency programs implemented by local governments that serve small and medium commercial buildings (SMB). The project leveraged the services and resources of existing local government energy programs serving disadvantaged and hard-to-reach SMB customers. In contrast to programs run by utilities, local government programs generally do not have direct access to energy billing records for an entire class of customers in a geographic area, which prior research demonstrated useful for large-scale building energy model baseline development and calibration. , However, local governments are rich in public records that offer important clues about physical attributes and uses that, along with behavior, determine energy use. Relying only on public records, BRICR demonstrated development of credible baseline energy models for 3,792 office, retail, and hotel buildings. Publicly disclosed annual energy use data from a local energy benchmarking program and anonymized data from the Building Performance Database, the nation’s largest dataset about energy-related characteristics of buildings, were utilized to validate and calibrate energy models via an innovative method comparing distributions of energy intensity by fuel type for portfolios of buildings of similar size, vintage, and use. Portfolio calibration does not provide certainty that an energy model fits an individual building; the method is useful when billing data is not accessible – a common situation for researchers, energy service providers and ESCOs, local governments, and any party other than a utility. A software component was developed, the BRICR gem, which automates simulation when relevant data is added or edited by the user to a file saved in the standardized BuildingSync XML schema for energy audit data. The component was demonstrated as a simplified means to generate a mass of energy models corresponding to public records containing basic attributes such as building scale, location, use, year built, and aspect ratio in combination with building energy code prototype data corresponding to use and vintage. The component was also demonstrated as a simplified means to automate energy simulation when attributes are revised; the intention was to enable iterative improvement of the baseline model and energy savings estimates for common energy conservation measures as users revise relevant attributes based on their observations. In the context of institutional change and uncertainty for the participating local government energy programs, 13 whole building retrofits were completed. Impacts were measured by applying the CalTRACK2.0 methods to standardize measurement of normalized metered energy consumption. The GRIDMeter methods of stratified sampling and individual load shape analysis were applied to adjust for impacts of the effect of COVID-19 on retrofitted buildings in the context of all local buildings of similar size and use. Excluding impacts of the pandemic, retrofitted buildings demonstrated between 1.6% and 25.1% reduction in energy use. The project contributed use cases and feedback that helped inform evolution of the software tools and data formats that were combined for the first time in the BRICR project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling

As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal-model-based characterization of heavy-ion-collision systems at chemical freeze-out

We investigate the chemical freeze-out in heavy-ion collisions (HICs) and the impact of the hadronic spectrum on thermal model analyses [1, 2]. Detailed knowledge of the hadronic spectrum is still an open question, which has phenomenological consequences on the study of HICs. By varying the number of resonances included in Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) Model calculations, we can shed light on which particles may be produced. Furthermore, we study the influence of the number of states on the so-called two flavor freezeout scenario, in which strange and light particles can freeze-out separately. We consider results for the chemical freeze-out parameters obtained from thermal model fits and from calculating net-particle fluctuations. We will show the effect of using one global temperature to fit all particles and alternatively, allowing particles with and without strange quarks to freeze-out separately.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration of Al7075 with Plate-Puncture Predictions

The following details calibration of a material model for Al7075-T6511. This aluminum alloy is commonly used across a host of engineering applications. Owing to its widespread prevalence, there is great benefit in improving simulation predictions for this alloy. In the present effort, a calibration is performed of its elastic-plastic response accounting for both rate and temperature dependence. The calibration is informed by a series of tests that include specimens of different geometries tested at different rates and temperatures. All specimens are derived from the same barstock, 3.5 inches in diameter. The fitted model itself uses an anisotropic, Hill yield surface coupled with a Johnson-Cook hardening model. Failure predictions are had by means of a modified Wilkins failure criterion. Following calibration of the material model, a validation exercise is performed against platepuncture experiments. These experiments include multiple probe shapes, probe diameters, and plate thicknesses. The puncture experiments are replicated in simulation with mesh studies performed to assess uncertainty. Key quantities of interest, notably the absorbed energy up to failure, are compared between simulation and experiment providing a means to assess the suitability of the calibration in puncture simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗