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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Adhesively Bonded Copper and Polyimide for Flexible Printed Circuit Boards: A Data-Driven Degradation Study Under Accelerated Aging

The long-term durability of polyimide laminated adhesive based flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) is critical to the microelectronics industry. The interface of the adhesive layer binding the polyimide and copper layers is particularly vulnerable since decreased bonding strength can lead to deadhesion, performance loss, and premature device failure. Here, in this study, adhesive-bonded polyimide and copper samples are subjected to 1000 h of damp heat exposure (85 °C/85%RH) to evaluate the impact of moisture and copper inclusion on the adhesive bonding performance. Significant copper diffusion through the adhesive layer is observed, which, combined with moisture uptake, is found to substantially weaken interfacial adhesion in copper-containing samples, thereby reducing device lifetime. Observed surface and bulk material changes are correlated to adhesion strength using the network structural equation modeling (netSEM) approach, resulting in a robust predictive model of performance degradation based on measurable materials properties.

Chemistry↗

Quantifying the reduction in cavitation-induced erosion damage in the Spallation Neutron Source mercury target by means of small-bubble gas injection

Here, a model developed to represent the progress of erosion damage in liquid-metal spallation target vessels was modified to incorporate the effect of gas injection on the erosion rate. The liquid mercury target system for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory now operates with helium gas injection to reduce target vessel fatigue stress and cavitation-induced erosion damage. Erosion damage is a primary degradation phenomenon affecting the service life of SNS target vessels, and cavitation mitigation techniques, such as small-bubble gas injection, have been implemented to reduce damage and extend target lifetimes. Erosion depths in samples removed from SNS targets after operation were measured using laser line scanning. These measurements confirmed that gas injection reduced erosion damage. However, quantifying the damage reduction due to gas injection was complicated by variations in lifetime, power, and gas injection rates between different targets. In this study, the operating power and gas injection rate of targets were incorporated into an erosion damage prediction model to quantify their effects on erosion damage reduction. Values of a power scaling factor, β, were calculated by comparing modeled with measured erosion damage. These values indicate that the use of gas injection at the SNS reduced damage to a level equivalent to operating targets without gas injection at 35–47% of the actual beam power. To account for the gas injection effect on the cavitation damage, a simple exponential form based on analysis of the scaling factor β was developed to incorporate the gas rate history with a scaling factor γ in the erosion damage modeling.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Continuum Damage Mechanics Modeling of High-Temperature Flaw Propagation: Application to Creep Crack Growth In 316H Standardized Specimens and Nuclear Reactor Components

Predicting creep crack growth (CCG) of flaws found during operation in high-temperature alloy components is essential for assessing the remaining lifetime of those components. While defect assessment procedures are available for this purpose in design codes, these are limited in their range of applicability. This study assesses the application of a local damage-based finite-element methodology as a more general technique for the prediction of CCG at high temperatures on a variety of structural configurations. Numerical results for stainless steel 316H, which are validated against experimental data, show the promise of this approach. This integration of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based methodologies, together with adequate inelastic models, into assessment procedures can therefore inform the characterization of CCG under complex operating conditions, while avoiding excessive conservatism. This article shows that such modeling frameworks can be calibrated to experimental data and used to demonstrate that the degree of tri-axiality ahead of a growing creep crack affects its rate of growth. The framework is also successfully employed in characterizing CCG in a realistic reactor pressure vessel geometry under an arbitrary loading condition. These results are particularly relevant to the nuclear power industry for defect assessment and inspections as part of codified practices of structural components with flaws in high-temperature reactors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Full Scale 3D Computational Model of the Industrial -Scale Coal Fired Boiler Performance for Temperature Sensor Installation Guidance

Abstract Nearly 30% of the electricity is generated by using coal as the primary fuel in the US. One of the major concerns in coal-fired power plants is the failure of boiler tubes that leads to unscheduled maintenance and has a huge economical and societal impact. High temperature flue gas along with ash pass over the boiler tubes, which over time leads to tube failure. Therefore, developing temperature sensors for harsh environments and install them for temperature sensing and boiler tube lifetime prediction is an urgent need. On the side of sensor development, the location of the sensor installation is important for stable sensing performance and easy calibration. In this study, computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer modeling are adopted to establish a full-scale 3-dimensional model of a coal-fired boiler to investigate the flue gas temperature distribution within the boiler and identify the proper locations for sensor installation. We proposed three criteria to select the temperature sensor installation location: (1) select the boiler tube panel away from the sidewalls, (2) select the boiler tube section closer to the top wall of the boiler; and (3) select the boiler tube on the back of the boiler panel (not directly facing the flue gas flow). In these regions, the flue gas temperature is stable, providing an ideal environment for stable temperature sensing and calibration.

Gupta, Tanuj↗

Photoionization of seeded combustion products as a method of enhancing the efficiency of magnetohydrodynamic power generators

Here, in this study, we performed an experimental and computational investigation into the feasibility of utilizing photoionization to enhance the electrical conductivity of seeded oxy-fuel combustion products and improve the performance of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power generators. We applied a variety of optical and microwave diagnostics to study the ionization and recombination processes of potassium excited by an excimer laser in a high-velocity oxy-fuel free jet. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed to model the thermophysical properties and species densities of the free jet. The CFD results were validated with position-dependent potassium concentration measurements. Electron recombination exponential lifetimes were measured through time-resolved microwave transmission. The experimental electron lifetimes were compared with lifetimes calculated from CFD-predicted species densities and literature recombination rates. It was determined that K + or O 2 are the most likely recombination partners for photoionized electrons. Time-resolved fluorescence measurements provided evidence of an ionization pathway involving a two-photon ionization of KOH . Finally, a zero-dimensional chemical kinetic model was developed to assess the fundamental viability of inducing a non-equilibrium electron population to provide a net energy return in combustion-driven MHD power generators. We determined that a high energy return is feasible for targeting electrode boundary layers with ultraviolet photoionization. We also found that photoionization could potentially lower the required temperature of the bulk gas flow.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Final Technical Report: Innovative Magnetron Power Sources for Superconducting RF (SRF) Accelerators

In this project, MUONS is designing and building custom magnetrons at Richardson Electronics (RELL) to test the predictions of the models and make improvements to the designs to match the needs of NP SRF accelerators and their life-cycle costs. To increase lifetime, the filament temperature is controlled by a feedback circuit that includes a model of back streaming of electrons. The gain of the magnetron is optimized by the design of an input port. A permanent magnet design with trim coil for amplitude adjustment reduces energy consumption. Moving the construction of the magnetron from prototype to manufacturing includes the utilization of RELL processes and designs. To the extent that outgassing of materials influences the lifetime of the magnetron, methods for minimizing outgassing was explored. Further experimentation of the potential of sub-critical voltage operation continues to be explored. The commercialization goal of the project will be naturally achieved as RELL already has world-wide marketing, sales, and support to exploit the assembly-line capabilities generated by this project to enable magnetron technologies for NP accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Modeling Volatility-Based Aerosol Phase State Predictions in the Amazon Rainforest

Organic aerosol (OA) is a complex matrix of various constituents—fresh (primary organic aerosols—POA) and aged via oxidation (secondary organic aerosols—SOA), generated from biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning sources. The viscosity of OA can be critical in influencing new particle formation, reactive uptake processes that impact evaporation-growth kinetics, and the lifetime of particles in the atmosphere. We report this work utilizes a well-defined relationship between volatility and viscosity for pure compounds, which we incorporated within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate the phase state and viscosity of bulk OA during the dry-to-wet transition season (September–October) in the Amazon rainforest during 2014. Our simulations indicate spatial and temporal heterogeneity in aerosol phase state often not captured by global-scale models. We show the strong role of water associated with organic aerosol ($w_s$) as the dominant factor that can be used to quantitatively estimate OA viscosity. Analysis of WRF-Chem simulations across the entire atmospheric column indicates a strong inverse log-linear relationship between $w_s$ and OA viscosity with a correlation coefficient approaching 1, in the background and biomass burning-influenced conditions. At high altitudes where relative humidity (RH) and temperatures are low, our simulations indicate that OA exists in a semisolid-/solid-like phase state, consistent with previous studies. OA hygroscopicity is strongly correlated (ca. –0.8) with OA viscosity at RH ca. 30–50%, but this RH range is found mostly at low OA concentrations and the middle troposphere (ca. 6–10 km altitudes) in our simulated domain. OA hygroscopicity is uncorrelated with viscosity at higher-RH (near surface) and lower-RH (upper troposphere) regimes. At the urban site near surface, where day–night differences in RH are significant, RH is found to drive the phase state. At the background forested site near surface, where day–night RH differences are small, biomass burning-influenced OA is semisolid and a significant OA associated with background conditions is liquid-like. Simulations indicate a long tail of OA viscosity frequency distributions extending in the semisolid/solid regimes over background biogenic-influenced conditions due to the role of low-volatility OA components such as monoterpene oxidation products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

wtDigiTwin (Wind Turbine Digital Twin) [SWR-21-15]

This wind turbine digital twin software (wtDigiTwin) provides a digital twin solution for wind turbine applications. The focus of wtDigiTwin is to estimate loads, motions and environmental conditions for an operating wind turbine. The program uses supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements as inputs, together with a wind turbine model. The wind industry is currently challenged by the high cost of operation and maintenance. These costs could be mitigated if component failures are predicted, but such predictions are difficult unless the turbines are equipped with expensive measuring devices. The alternative is to use a digital twin such as wtDigiTwin to estimate the necessary signals. wtDigiTwin can perform online prediction of signals that are otherwise not measured, using a limited set of reliable measurements and a physics-based model. The predicted signals can be used in applications that have direct cost benefits: 1) real-time estimation of the fatigue consumption of key components of the wind turbine; 2) root cause analyses and failure detections ; 3) lifetime reassessments ; 4) improvements to follow-on designs. The current version provides examples to estimate wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and tower loads on an onshore wind turbine using the following measurements tower top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The model combines a linear state-space model, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The state space model is obtained either using OpenFAST linearizations, or using the yams package provided with the software.

Branlard, Emmanuel↗

Statistical analysis and degradation pathway modeling of photovoltaic minimodules with varied packaging strategies

Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.

electrical measurements↗

Predictive Modeling of Local Film-Cooling Flow on a Turbine Rotor Blade

Abstract In the turbine section of a modern gas turbine engine, components exposed to the main gas path flow rely on cooling air to maintain hardware durability targets. Therefore, monitoring turbine cooling flow is essential to the diagnostic and prognostic efficacy of a condition-based operation and maintenance (CBOM) approach. This study supports CBOM goals by leveraging supervised machine learning to estimate relative changes to local film-cooling flowrate using surface temperature measured on the pressure side of a rotating turbine blade operating at engine-relevant aerothermal conditions. Throughout the lifetime of a film-cooled turbine component, characteristics of the film-cooling flow—such as film trajectory and cooling effectiveness—vary as degradation-driven geometry distortions occur, which ultimately affects the relationship between the model input and the model output—film-cooling flowrate predictions. The present study addresses this complication by testing a data-driven model on multiple turbine blades of the same nominal design, but with each blade exhibiting different localized film-cooling flow characteristics. By testing the model in this manner, strategies for mitigating the detrimental effects of film-cooling flow characteristic variations on model performance were investigated, and the corresponding flowrate prediction accuracy was quantified.

Engineering↗

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗

Comparing Sensor Fusion and Multimodal Chemometric Models for Monitoring U(VI) in Complex Environments Representative of Irradiated Nuclear Fuel

Optical sensors and chemometric models were leveraged for the quantification of uranium(VI) (0–100 μg mL –1 ), europium (0–150 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–250 μg mL –1 ), praseodymium (0–350 μg mL –1 ), neodymium (0–1000 μg mL –1 ), and HNO 3 (2–4 M) with varying corrosion product (iron, nickel, and chromium) levels using laser fluorescence, Raman scattering, and ultraviolet–visible–near-infrared absorption spectra. In this paper, an efficient approach to developing and evaluating tens of thousands of partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models, built from fused optical spectra or multimodal acquisitions, is discussed. Each PLSR model was optimized with unique preprocessing combinations, and features were selected using genetic algorithm filters. The 7-factor D-optimal design training set contained just 55 samples to minimize the number of samples. The performance of PLSR models was evaluated by using an automated latent variable selection script. PLS1 regression models tailored to each species outperformed a global PLS2 model. PLS1 models built using fused spectra data and a multimodal (i.e., analyzed separately) approach yielded similar information, resulting in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 0.9–5.7% for the seven factors. Further, the optical techniques and data processing strategies established in this study allow for the direct analysis of numerous species without measuring luminescence lifetimes or relying on a standard addition approach, making it optimal for near-real-time, in situ measurements. Nuclear reactor modeling helped bound training set conditions and identified elemental ratios of lanthanide fission products to characterize the burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. Leveraging fluorescence, spectrophotometry, experimental design, and chemometrics can enable the remote quantification and characterization of complex systems with numerous species, monitor system performance, help identify the source of materials, and enable rapid high-throughput experiments in a variety of industrial processes and fundamental studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Atomistic measurement and modeling of intrinsic fracture toughness of two-dimensional materials

Quantifying the intrinsic mechanical properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials is essential to predict the long-term reliability of materials and systems in emerging applications ranging from energy to health to next-generation sensors and electronics. Currently, measurements of fracture toughness and identification of associated atomistic mechanisms remain challenging. Herein, we report an integrated experimental–computational framework in which in-situ high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) measurements of the intrinsic fracture energy of monolayer MoS 2 and MoSe 2 are in good agreement with atomistic model predictions based on an accurately parameterized interatomic potential. Changes in crystalline structures at the crack tip and crack edges, as observed in in-situ HRTEM crack extension tests, are properly predicted. Such a good agreement is the result of including large deformation pathways and phase transitions in the parameterization of the inter-atomic potential. The established framework emerges as a robust approach to determine the predictive capabilities of molecular dynamics models employed in the screening of 2D materials, in the spirit of the materials genome initiative. Moreover, it enables device-level predictions with superior accuracy (e.g., fatigue lifetime predictions of electro- and opto-electronic nanodevices).

Zhang, Xu↗

Enhancing the sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment to low energy signals

Two-phase xenon detectors, such as that at the core of the forthcoming LZ dark matter experiment, use photomultiplier tubes to sense the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) scintillation signals resulting from particle interactions in their liquid xenon target. This paper describes a simulation study exploring two techniques to lower the energy threshold of LZ to gain sensitivity to low-mass dark matter and astrophysical neutrinos, which will be applicable to other liquid xenon detectors. The energy threshold is determined by the number of detected S1 photons; typically, these must be recorded in three or more photomultiplier channels to avoid dark count coincidences that mimic real signals. To lower this threshold: a) we take advantage of the double photoelectron emission effect, whereby a single vacuum ultraviolet photon has a $\sim20\%$ probability of ejecting two photoelectrons from a photomultiplier tube photocathode; and b) we drop the requirement of an S1 signal altogether, and use only the ionization signal, which can be detected more efficiently. For both techniques we develop signal and background models for the nominal exposure, and explore accompanying systematic effects, including the dependence on the free electron lifetime in the liquid xenon. When incorporating double photoelectron signals, we predict a factor of $\sim 4$ sensitivity improvement to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross-section at $2.5$ GeV/c$^2$, and a factor of $\sim1.6$ increase in the solar $^8$B neutrino detection rate. Dropping the S1 requirement may allow sensitivity gains of two orders of magnitude in both cases. Finally, we apply these techniques to even lower masses by taking into account the atomic Migdal effect; this could lower the dark matter particle mass threshold to $80$ MeV/c$^2$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Enhancing the sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment to low energy signals

Two-phase xenon detectors, such as that at the core of the forthcoming LZ dark matter experiment, use photomultiplier tubes to sense the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) scintillation signals resulting from particle interactions in their liquid xenon target. This paper describes a simulation study exploring two techniques to lower the energy threshold of LZ to gain sensitivity to low-mass dark matter and astrophysical neutrinos, which will be applicable to other liquid xenon detectors. The energy threshold is determined by the number of detected S1 photons; typically, these must be recorded in three or more photomultiplier channels to avoid dark count coincidences that mimic real signals. To lower this threshold: a) we take advantage of the double photoelectron emission effect, whereby a single vacuum ultraviolet photon has a $\sim20\%$ probability of ejecting two photoelectrons from a photomultiplier tube photocathode; and b) we drop the requirement of an S1 signal altogether, and use only the ionization signal, which can be detected more efficiently. For both techniques we develop signal and background models for the nominal exposure, and explore accompanying systematic effects, including the dependence on the free electron lifetime in the liquid xenon. When incorporating double photoelectron signals, we predict a factor of $\sim 4$ sensitivity improvement to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross-section at $2.5$ GeV/c$^2$, and a factor of $\sim1.6$ increase in the solar $^8$B neutrino detection rate. Dropping the S1 requirement may allow sensitivity gains of two orders of magnitude in both cases. Finally, we apply these techniques to even lower masses by taking into account the atomic Migdal effect; this could lower the dark matter particle mass threshold to $80$ MeV/c$^2$.

Akerib, DS↗

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗