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At least 163 records · Page 9

The ages of globular cluster stars - Effects of rotation on pre-main-sequence, main-sequence, and turnoff evolution

Evolutionary sequences for low-metallicity stars (Z ranging from 0.001 to 0.0001) to study the effects of internal stellar rotation on the evolutionary time scales in the pre-main sequence, the main sequence (MS), and around the MS turnoff. Although a substantial amount of angular momentum remains in the interior, rotation is only a minor perturbation on the structure and ages of globular cluster stars. Even models with large initial angular momenta have MS lifetimes that are within 1 percent of those of standard models of the same mass and composition. Therefore, rotation does not affect age estimates of globular clusters from isochrone fitting. Furthermore, the models suggest that because rotation is not likely to affect horizontal-branch (HB) morphology, it does not affect significantly age estimates from the Delta-V method. Nevertheless, the internal angular momentum in the models is consistent with observations of surface rotational velocities on the HB, which require the preservation of a large reservoir of internal angular momentum.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗

Predicting the oxidative lifetime of beta NiAl-Zr alloys

Nickel aluminides containing 40 to 50 at. pct Al and 0.1 at. pct Zr were studied following cyclic oxidation at 1400 C. The selective oxidation of Al resulted in the formation of protective Al2O3 scales on each alloy composition. However, repeated cycling eventually resulted in the gradual formation of less-protective NiAl2O4, first appearing on the 40Al alloys followed at longer times on the 45Al alloys. The appearance of the NiAl2O4, signaling the end of the protective scale-forming capability of the alloy, was related to the presence of gamma-prime (Ni3Al) which formed as a result of the loss of Al from the sample. A diffusion model, based on finite-difference techniques, was developed to predict the protective life of beta Ni-Al alloys. This model predicts Ni and Al concentration profiles after various oxidation exposures. The model can predict the oxidative lifetime due to Al depletion when the Al concentration decreases to a critical concentration. Measured Al concentration profiles on two alloys after various oxidation exposures are compared to those predicted by the diffusion model. The time to the appearance of the NiAl2O4 and that predicted by the diffusion model are compared and discussed.

Nesbitt, J. A.↗

Using Machine Learning to Estimate Surface-Level SO2 Concentrations from Satellite-Based Measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a criteria air pollutant due to its contributions to aerosol formation, rainfall acidification, and harm to human health. The placement of air quality monitoring sites is typically biased towards urban areas, leaving large areas with very limited monitoring data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been used to provide estimates of SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) globally at spatial resolution of 10s of kms once per day. OMI SO2 VCDs have been previously used to estimate surface SO2 concentrations using chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The CTMs use estimated emissions and assimilated meteorological data, and simulate the chemical and physical processes that determine the vertical profile of SO2, which can be used to derive a ratio between the surface concentrations and VCDs. These models are complex, computationally expensive, and have large uncertainties in the simulated surface-to-VCD ratio due to biases in emissions and relatively coarse resolution. Machine learning techniques are comparatively easier to use, much less computationally expensive to use after training, and can produce more accurate estimations of surface concentrations than the CTM-based method. The interpretation of machine learning models often poses challenges, and in some cases, non-physical variables unrelated to SO2 are used as predictors. In this work, we create an artificial neural network (ANN) to relate OMI retrievals and archived GEOS-FP boundary layer heights to surface SO2 concentrations from the ChinaHighAirPollutants ChinaHighSO2 dataset (CHAP; Wei et al., 2023) on a seasonal average timescale from 2013-2018. Our model only utilizes five variables that are directly relevant to the satellite retrieval, lifetime, and spatial distribution of SO2. The model was trained on 16 seasons (four of each) with independent validation (one of each season) and testing datasets (one of each season) to avoid overfitting. Our ANN generates surface SO2 concentrations that are sensitive (slope = 0.51) and consistent (r = 0.74) with the CHAP data, but are underpredicted by an average of 1.2 ppbv with a mean absolute error of 2.2 ppbv. These results are better than recent studies utilizing the CTM method. To our knowledge, this is the best performing machine learning model that only uses physical variables to predict surface SO2. Our work demonstrates that a carefully constructed, simple ML model can accurately estimate surface-based SO2 concentrations from satellite VCD measurements, and this technique has future promise to expend to newer, higher resolution satellites and other air pollutants.

SO2, air quality, OMI, machine learning↗

An in-situ measurement of particulates from solid rocket motors fired in space

Current models exist that predict the damage caused by the impact of aluminum oxide exhaust particles as well as their lifetime in useable space. In these models, two necessary inputs are the size and flux of the particles. An experiment, referred to as the Plume Witness Plate, was designed for the Remote Manipulator System of the space shuttle orbiter to measure in-situ the flux and material effects of a solid rocket motor (SRM) firing in space. Five different types of samples were used to provide a broad range of substances: (1) fused quartz glass (representative of orbiter windows); (2) germanium micrometeroid capture cells; (3) orbiter HRTS tiles from the thermal protection system; (4) Kapton foil; and (5) metallic disks of aluminum, copper, titanium, graphite epoxy, and gold. The analyses of the data show excellent agreement with ground-based SRM firings in terms of particle size distribution and mass distribution. The Particle Impact Damage Integrator computer model used to calculate potential damage of orbiter surfaces by SRM exhaust plumes agrees favorable with the results in terms of particle size and velocity distributions though it may be conservative by as much as 20%.

Alred, J. W.↗

Excited state dynamics of thulium ions in yttrium aluminum garnets

The processes that take place in the excited states of a trivalent Thulium (Tm) ion in an Yttrium Aluminum Garnet (YAG) crystal, being relevant to the use of this system for laser applications, have been the object of several studies. We have reexamined this system focusing our attention on the dynamics of Tm following its excitation in the H-3(sub 4) level. Under these conditions the system relaxes through a cross-relaxation process. H-3(sub 4) yields F-3(sub 4), H-3(sub 6) yields F-3(sub 4), whose rate depends upon both the concentration of the Tm ion and the temperature of the crystal. The excitation spectrum obtained by monitoring the 1.8 micron emission of Tm (due to the F-3(sub 4) yields H-3(sub 6) transition) indicates an increase in the contribution to this emission from the H-3(sub 4) level relative to the H-3(sub 5) level as the Tm concentration increases; this shows the increased role played by the H-3(sub 4) level in pumping the infrared emission. Correspondingly, the duration of the luminescence originating in the H-3(sub 4) level is shortened as the concentration of Tm increases. The concentration quenching of this lifetime can be fit to a model which assumes that the cross-relaxation is due to a dipole-dipole interaction; from this fit, the intrinsic Tm lifetime in the absence of cross relaxation can be derived. We have used this lifetime to calculate the rate of the cross-relaxation process. We have evaluated this rate as a function of the temperature and found it to be fastest at 77 K. We have also calculated the microscopic interaction parameters for the cross-relaxation process by using two independent experimental features: (1) the time evolution of the emission from the H-3(sub 4) level; and (2) the spectral overlap between the H-3(sub 4) yields F-3(sub 4) emission and the H-3(sub 6) yields F-3(sub 4) absorption. We have also considered the migration of excitation among the Tm ions in the F-3(sub 4) level and calculated the relevant microparameter by the use of the relevant spectral overlap. The data are consistent with the model in which the Tm ions, once excited into the H-3(sub 4) level decay by cross-relaxation to the F-3(sub 4), and then transfer rapidly their energy to other Tm ions.

Armagan, G.↗

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗

30-cm mercury ion thruster technology

The LeRC/Hughes 30-cm mercury ion thruster has been developed to a state of maturity such that is has become meaningful to formulate models for describing the performance characteristics of the major subassemblies. The thruster hollow cathode and the ion optics subassemblies have been investigated with this objective and conceptual, semiquantitative models have been formulated for relating lifetime and performance capabilities to design and operating parameters. This paper summarizes the investigations, discusses the factors considered for inclusion in the models, and describes the status of the models.

Poeschel, R. L.↗

Tropospheric OH and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) may be used as alternatives for the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Lifetimes for the HCFCs are predicted here in two ways: integrating their loss with a global model and scaling to another compound with a better known lifetime. Both approaches are shown to yield similar results. Three-dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for the HCFCs and other hydrogenated halocarbons. The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using a ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

Prather, Michael↗

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗

A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Cloud physics↗

A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Calculation of Operations Efficiency Factors for Mars Surface Missions

For planning of Mars surface missions, to be operated on a sol-by-sol basis by a team on Earth (where a "sol" is a Martian day), activities are described in terms of "sol types" that are strung together to build a surface mission scenario. Some sol types require ground decisions based on a previous sol's results to feed into the activity planning ("ground in the loop"), while others do not. Due to the differences in duration between Earth days and Mars sols, for a given Mars local solar time, the corresponding Earth time "walks" relative to the corresponding times on the prior sol/day. In particular, even if a communication window has a fixed Mars local solar time, the Earth time for that window will be approximately 40 minutes later each succeeding day. Further complexity is added for non-Mars synchronous communication relay assets, and when there are multiple control centers in different Earth time zones. The solution is the development of "ops efficiency factors" that reflect the efficiency of a given operations configuration (how many and location of control centers, types of communication windows, synchronous or non-synchronous nature of relay assets, sol types, more-or-less sustainable operations schedule choices) against a theoretical "optimal" operations configuration for the mission being studied. These factors are then incorporated into scenario models in order to determine the surface duration (and therefore minimum spacecraft surface lifetime) required to fulfill scenario objectives. The resulting model is used to perform "what-if" analyses for variations in scenario objectives. The ops efficiency factor is the ratio of the figure of merit for a given operations factor to the figure of merit for the theoretical optimal configuration. The current implementation is a pair of models in Excel. The first represents a ground operations schedule for 500 sols in each operations configuration for the mission being studied (500 sols was chosen as being a long enough time to capture variations in relay asset interactions, Earth/Mars time phasing, and seasonal variations in holidays). This model is used to estimate the ops efficiency factor for each operations configuration. The second model in a separate Excel spreadsheet is a scenario model, which uses the sol types to rack up the total number of "scenario sols" for that scenario (in other words, the ideal number of sols it would take to perform the scenario objectives). Then, the number of sols requiring ground in the loop is calculated based on the soil types contained in the given scenario. Next, the scenario contains a description of what sequence of operations configurations is used, for how many days each, and this is used with the corresponding ops efficiency factors for each configuration to calculate the "ops duration" corresponding to that scenario. Finally, a margin is applied to determine the minimum surface lifetime required for that scenario. Typically, this level of analysis has not been performed until much later in the mission, and has not been able to influence mission design. Further, the notion of moving to sustainable operations during Prime Mission - and the effect that that move would have on surface mission productivity and mission objective choices - has not been encountered until the most recent rover missions (MSL and Mars 2018).

Layback, Sharon L.↗

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗

Representation of Nucleation Mode Microphysics in a Global Aerosol Model with Sectional Microphysics

In models, nucleation mode (1 nm<Dp <10 nm) particle microphysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nm≤Dp ≤70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp ≥10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above ∼700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost-layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by the overprediction of J10 or J3 with the parameterized microphysics, possibly due to the instantaneous growth rate assumption in the survival and growth parameterization. The errors in CN10 predictions are sensitive to the choice of the lower size boundary but not to the choice of the time step applied to the microphysical processes. The spatial distribution of CCN(0.2 %) with the 3 nm boundary is almost identical to that with the 1 nm boundary, but that with the 10 nm boundary can differ more than 10-40% in some areas. We found that the deviation in the 10 nm simulations is partly due to the longer time step (i.e., 1 h time step used in the 10 nm simulations compared to 10 min time step used in the benchmark simulations), but, even with the same time step, the 10 nm cutoff showed noticeably higher errors than the 3 nm cutoff. In conclusion, we generally recommend using a lower diameter boundary of 3 nm for studies focused on aerosol indirect effects but down to 1 nm boundary for studies focused on CN10 predictions or nucleation.

microphysics↗

Advanced ceramic coating development for industrial/utility gas turbine applications

The effects of ceramic coatings on the lifetimes of metal turbine components and on the performance of a utility turbine, as well as of the turbine operational cycle on the ceramic coatings were determined. When operating the turbine under conditions of constant cooling flow, the first row blades run 55K cooler, and as a result, have 10 times the creep rupture life, 10 times the low cycle fatigue life and twice the corrosion life with only slight decreases in both specific power and efficiency. When operating the turbine at constant metal temperature and reduced cooling flow, both specific power and efficiency increases, with no change in component lifetime. The most severe thermal transient of the turbine causes the coating bond stresses to approach 60% of the bond strengths. Ceramic coating failures was studied. Analytic models based on fracture mechanics theories, combined with measured properties quantitatively assessed both single and multiple thermal cycle failures which allowed the prediction of coating lifetime. Qualitative models for corrosion failures are also presented.

Andersson, C. A.↗

Semiclassical Models for Virtual Antiparticle Pairs, the Unit of Charge e, and the QCD Coupling alpha(sub s)

New semiclassical models of virtual antiparticle pairs are used to compute the pair lifetimes, and good agreement with the Heisenberg lifetimes from quantum field theory (QFT) is found. The modeling method applies to both the electromagnetic and color forces. Evaluation of the action integral of potential field fluctuation for each interaction potential yields approximately Planck's constant/2 for both electromagnetic and color fluctuations, in agreement with QFT. Thus each model is a quantized semiclassical representation for such virtual antiparticle pairs, to good approximation. When the results of the new models and QFT are combined, formulae for e and alpha(sub s)(q) are derived in terms of only Planck's constant and c.

Batchelor, David↗

A modeling analysis program for the JPL Table Mountain Io sodium cloud data

Progress and achievements in the second year are discussed in three main areas: (1) data quality review of the 1981 Region B/C images; (2) data processing activities; and (3) modeling activities. The data quality review revealed that almost all 1981 Region B/C images are of sufficient quality to be valuable in the analyses of the JPL data set. In the second area, the major milestone reached was the successful development and application of complex image-processing software required to render the original image data suitable for modeling analysis studies. In the third area, the lifetime description of sodium atoms in the planet magnetosphere was improved in the model to include the offset dipole nature of the magnetic field as well as an east-west electric field. These improvements are important in properly representing the basic morphology as well as the east-west asymmetries of the sodium cloud.

Smyth, W. H.↗