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At least 163 records · Page 9

Improved Wave Energy Production Forecasts for Smart Grid Integration

Integration of renewable power sources into electrical grids remains an active research and development area, particularly for less developed renewable energy technologies, such as wave energy converters (WECs). High spatio-temporal resolution and accurate wave forecasts at a potential WEC (or WEC array) lease area are needed to improve WEC power prediction and to facilitate grid integration, particularly for microgrid locations. The availability of high quality measurement data from recently developed low-cost buoys allows for operational assimilation of wave data into forecast models at remote locations where real-time data have previously been unavailable. This work includes the development and assessment of a wave modeling framework with real-time data assimilation capabilities for WEC power prediction. Spoondrift wave measurement buoys were deployed off the coast of Yakutat, Alaska, a microgrid site with high wave energy resource potential. A wave modeling framework with data assimilation was developed and assessed, which was most effective when the incoming forecasted boundary conditions did not represent the observations well. For that case, assimilation of the wave height data using the ensemble Kalman filter resulted in a reduction of wave height forecast normalized root mean square error from 27% to an average of 16% over a 12-hour period. This results in reduction of wave power forecast error from 73% to 43%. In summary, the use of the low-cost wave buoy data assimilated into the wave modeling framework improved the forecast skill and will provide a useful development tool for the integration of WECs into electrical grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Characterize the Demand and Energy Characteristics of Residential Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment

The EV Project enrolled over 8,000 residential participants. These participants purchased or leased a Nissan Leaf or Chevrolet Volt. The EV Project provided and installed Blink Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), used to recharge their PEV, in exchange for their agreement to allow project analysts to evaluate data collected from charging their PEV at their residence and away from home. The power required to recharge a PEV can be a significant contributor to the electrical load a residence places on the electric grid. What insight can The EV Project data provide in characterizing this contribution in terms of power demand and energy consumption to assist electric utilities in PEV adoption planning?

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

KDHE Project Code: C6-074-00002: Progress and Monitoring Report for the LBD/SVE/AS System at the Former CCC/USDA Grain Storage Facility, Agra, Kansas, in January-June 2017 (Chron-2157)

The Commodity Credit Corporation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (CCC/USDA) operated a grain storage facility at Agra, Kansas, from the 1950s to the early 1970s. No structures remain on the property, and the land is used for agricultural purposes, specifically wheat production. The property is currently owned by the Kyle Railroad Co. and is leased to Mr. Herb VanEaton. The Pro-Ag Marketing grain storage facility is directly south of the former CCC/USDA facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KDHE Project Code: C6-074-00002: Progress and Monitoring Report for the LBD/SVE/AS System at the Former CCC/USDA Grain Storage Facility, Agra, Kansas, in July-December 2017 (Chron-2170)

The Commodity Credit Corporation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (CCC/USDA) operated a grain storage facility at Agra, Kansas, from the 1950s to the early 1970s. No structures remain on the property, and the land is used for agricultural purposes, specifically wheat production. The property is currently owned by the Kyle Railroad Co. and is leased to Mr. Herb VanEaton. The Pro-Ag Marketing grain storage facility is directly south of the former CCC/USDA facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Targeted Investigation at the Former CCC/USDA Grain Storage Facility in York, Nebraska, in 2015-2016 (TR-17-04)

From 1950 until 1974, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) operated a grain storage facility on leased property in the northern portion of York, Nebraska (Figure 1.1). During this time, commercial grain fumigants containing carbon tetrachloride were commonly used by the CCC/USDA and the private grain storage industry to preserve grain in their facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shandiin Solar Project Development

The project is located on CBN lands 20 miles west of Albuquerque, New Mexico and will consist of approximately 200 acres of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and other equipment with a name plate capacity of 30 Megawatts. This project has recently been incorporated under the name Shandiin Solar, LLC. The goal of this project is to provide a vehicle for CBN economic development. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded aspect of the project will be to conduct development activities for the 30 Megawatt (MW) Shandiin Solar projects, including: complete final engineering and design, obtain an interconnect agreement, obtain lease agreement, finalize financing, complete business agreements and obtain a power purchase agreement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Photovoltaic Adoption in the Southeastern United States

Solar market analysis typically focuses on states with large solar installations in the Western states, notably California, the Northeast, namely Massachusetts, and two states in the Southern US: Florida and North Carolina. Herein we examine the solar PV industry and trends in capacity, production and incentives within the Southeastern US and provide an examination of how existing solar policy has influenced penetration on a state by state basis. In particular, why some states such as South Carolina have high residential solar capacity, while neighboring states, North Carolina and Georgia have high utility-scale penetration. Incentives developed in South Carolina through legislative action have increased solar PV residential installations dramatically since 2015, while utility scale installations continue to grow in North Carolina. North Carolina has the highest growth in non-residential (commercial and industrial) and utility-scale solar PV. It was found that for the residential sector, highest solar PV growth occurs when a) the federal tax credit is augmented with a state-wide tax credit, b) enabling state laws, and c) net-metering and solar leasing programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Light-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Validation Data (Final Report)

Since 2005, Mercedes-Benz Research & Development North America (MBRDNA) participated in the DOE’s Technology Validation Programs to help accelerate the market introduction of fuel cell vehicles. Under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contract DE-EE0005971, which ran from 2013 - 2019, MBRDNA collaborated with the DOE to evaluate overall vehicle degradation effects of fuel cell vehicles, as well as evaluate the generational improvements from one vehicle generation to another. The goal was to achieve a mileage target of 10,000-12,000 miles per vehicle per year and 750 to 1,000 operating hour accumulation per fuel cell stack. The MBRDNA Project Team (Project Team) leased a total of 69 fuel cell vehicles to regular Mercedes-Benz customers through select dealerships in Northern and Southern California. Of these 69 vehicles, a minimum of 20 active vehicles were chosen to participate in this project based on customer driving habits, average daily miles, and geographic conditions. These vehicles were equipped with a data acquisition system that automatically collected statistically relevant data for submission to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which monitors the progress of fuel cell vehicle technology for the DOE. As customer operation of GEN II vehicles ended in Q4 2017, a decision was made to focus GEN III vehicle operation in Europe and Japan only, and not to deploy the vehicle in the United States. Despite the intention to include three GEN III vehicles in durability runs in Southern California for purposes of data collection for this project, the plan could not be realized given the decision not to deploy GEN III vehicles in the U.S. market at this time. In total, over 1.3 million miles and 60,000 operational hours of fuel cell system and powertrain operation were submitted to DOE under this project. The data provided revealed insights into real-world customer operation and system durability of fuel cell vehicles, enabling the DOE to observe the technology maturity and readiness of fuel cell vehicles outside of the controlled corporate research and development environment. Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America (MBRDNA) has been promoting fuel cell technology in the U.S. since 2000. Over this time, it has been a pleasure to work in conjunction with the Department of Energy (DOE) on two separate projects surrounding fuel cell vehicle and market readiness. MBRDNA looks forward to future opportunities to collaborate in the interest of helping to further a sustainable transportation future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Improved Wave Energy Production Forecasts for Smart Grid Integration

Integration of renewable power sources into electrical grids remains an active research and development area, particularly for less developed renewable energy technologies, such as wave energy converters (WECs). High spatio-temporal resolution and accurate wave forecasts at a potential WEC (or WEC array) lease area are needed to improve WEC power prediction and to facilitate grid integration, particularly for microgrid locations. The availability of high quality measurement data from recently developed low-cost buoys allows for operational assimilation of wave data into forecast models at remote locations where real-time data have previously been unavailable. This work includes the development and assessment of a wave modeling framework with real-time data assimilation capabilities for WEC power prediction. Spoondrift wave measurement buoys were deployed off the coast of Yakutat, Alaska, a microgrid site with high wave energy resource potential. A wave modeling framework with data assimilation was developed and assessed, which was most effective when the incoming forecasted boundary conditions did not represent the observations well. For that case, assimilation of the wave height data using the ensemble Kalman filter resulted in a reduction of wave height forecast normalized root mean square error from 27% to an average of 16% over a 12-hour period. This results in reduction of wave power forecast error from 73% to 43%. In summary, the use of the low-cost wave buoy data assimilated into the wave modeling framework improved the forecast skill and will provide a useful development tool for the integration of WECs into electrical grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Energy Efficiency and the Real Estate Lifecycle: Stakeholder Perspectives

This report characterizes opportunities and pitfalls for leveraging key building lifecycle “events” as intervention points to enhance energy efficiency in real estate portfolios. It is based primarily on 33 interviews conducted with key industry stakeholders, including commercial real estate owners, operators, tenants, investors, developers, vendors, architecture/engineering firms, and construction managers. We focus on the following key events in the real estate life cycle because they are likely to present an opportunity for energy efficiency improvements: a) purchase or sale of a property; b) renovation; c) major equipment replacement; d) lease turnover or renewal; and e) refinancing. The stakeholder interviews covered business roles and processes, priorities, and sensitivities in these commercial real estate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Groundwater Potability Determination Report for Sylvan Grove, Kansas

The Commodity Credit Corporation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (CCC/USDA) operated a grain storage facility from 1954 to 1966 at the northeastern edge of Sylvan Grove, Kansas (Figures 1.1 and 1.2). During this time, commercial grain fumigants containing carbon tetrachloride were in common use to preserve grain in storage. The CCC/USDA is in the process of preparing a Corrective Action Study (CAS) to address carbon tetrachloride contamination in groundwater on the portion of the site that it formerly leased and operated. As stated in the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) Bureau of Environmental Remediation (BER) policy BER-RS-045 (KDHE 2016), Considerations for Groundwater Potability and Use Determinations (hereafter referred to as “Potability Determination Guidance”), the KDHE considers all groundwater to be a potential source of potable water. This report, however, substantiates that groundwater resources in the Cretaceous Dakota Formation—more specifically, that localized portions of water bearing strata affected by operations at the former CCC/USDA site—are non-potable. The purpose of this report, therefore, is to provide additional information to support the KDHE’s decision-making process with regard to the disposition and closure of the Sylvan Grove site. Per the Potability Determination Guidance the results of this potability evaluation will play a role in selecting the site remedial action objectives and the overall proposed path for long-term management. This report presents the data and analyses of the potability study and the results of the potability determination, which will be taken into consideration during the development of cleanup goals for the CAS or for any other future remedial or long-term management action agreed to by the CCC/USDA and KDHE. The Potability Determination Guidance provides a framework to evaluate groundwater potability by outlining: The set of threshold criteria under which KDHE will consider an aquifer to be non-potable; The data and information necessary to evaluate potability; and, Considerations for long-term management of aquifers that are deemed non potable. According to the guidance, the KDHE may determine that groundwater is non-potable due to natural conditions such as water quality or quantity characteristics. As suggested in the guidance, this report will discuss the initial potability threshold screening for entering the evaluation process (Section 2); justify the work plan that was covered by the site investigation planning (also in Section 2); and present the relevant data and evaluation results (Sections 3-6).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Roles and Responsibilities for Distribution Grids: DER Sensing and Communication Networks

Traditional distribution grids require sensing and communications for grid operations. In many cases the communications networks are owned by the Distribution Operator (DO); in some cases, carrier services such as leased telephone land lines or cellular services are used. In recent years, wireless mesh field area networks and optical fiber have become viable options for distribution. Fiber in particular has improved in cost to the point where its high performance (large bandwidth, low latency, and low packet loss) has become practical for distribution systems where geographic circumstances permit. As grid modernization proceeds, utilities find a need to improve or upgrade distribution communications; this represents a significant investment and it is natural that both utilities and regulators would seek both to future-proof and minimize their costs. Given the development and rising penetration of smart grid edge devices such as Distributed Energy Resources (DER) that have local sensing and intelligence and can communicate via the internet or other non-utility communications channels to cloud-based services, the idea of using such devices for grid sensing and communications to support grid operations has emerged as a potential means to avoid utility investment. To a great extent, however, these DER and communication channels will be owned and operated not by the DO but by end-use customers, aggregators and other third parties pursuing their own energy needs and business models. The question of whether such devices and systems can effectively substitute for DO grid modernization investment can be assessed and resolved using grid architecture methods and by considering the appropriate roles and responsibilities of the entities and systems involved in distribution grid operations. This approach reveals that there are several compelling reasons to dismiss the idea of eliminating DO owned and operated sensing and communication entirely and relying on DER-based sensing and third party communications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of an In-Situ Method for Cable Condition Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants (SBIR Phase IIB Final Report)

This is the final report of a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project that Analysis and Measurement Services Corporation (AMS) has conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) over a seven-and-a-half year period (February 2013 through April 2020 with the awards of Phase I, Phase II and Phase IIB projects). The goal of the project was to design, develop, validate, and demonstrate a technique for in-situ testing of cable insulation polymers that will identify, locate, and provide the degree of aging for cables commonly used in nuclear power plants. During the Phase I project, AMS established that the frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) technique can successfully identify and measure cable insulation degradation that can be trended with aging. In Phase II, AMS performed extensive cable aging studies to correlate FDR measurements with other laboratory condition monitoring techniques and developed aging condition categories to quantify the severity of insulation degradation. In Phase IIB, the project expanded the research to include a wider variety of cable polymers that are used in the commercial nuclear power industry. This work also involved developing acceptance criteria to objectively assess age-related cable degradation while sharing the results of this research with industry, academia, and national laboratories to advance the state of the art in cable aging management technologies. The products developed under this research project provide the nuclear industry with an effective condition monitoring tool to support safe and long-term plant operation. Throughout the project, collaborations and support were received from a variety of industry organizations and individuals including DOE National Laboratories as well as nuclear plant utilities and several other industry experts and cable manufacturers. Contributions from these organizations included the donation of new cables, naturally aged cables, and research collaboration. The validation and commercialization of the products of this project were achieved through opportunities to test and demonstrate the technologies’ capabilities on-site at nuclear power generation and research facilities as well as in the laboratory alongside industry peers and cable testing service companies. The research resulted in a technology that can be used to identify, locate, and quantify age-related degradation in several types of cable polymers. This included developing software and hardware as well as the methodology for using the FDR technique to assess age-related degradation of installed cables. The technology developed under this project can provide nuclear plant management, engineers, and technicians with an in-situ electrical test method to determine if in-service cables need to be replaced, monitored on a periodic basis, or show no evidence of significant age-related degradation that may require action. Near the end of this Phase IIB project, the FDR product was sold to a nuclear power utility in South Korea. This sale of a dedicated aging assessment tool is the beginning of a comprehensive contract with the expectation of twelve (12) units sold to that country. Additionally, the FDR technology has been sold to several industry organizations including a nuclear research institute and the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant. This technology is also being leased by other nuclear industry service companies for incorporation into aging management programs. The cable testing technology that was developed under this project was also integrated into a comprehensive cable aging assessment service that is being offered to the nuclear industry at the request of U.S. nuclear utilities and is currently part of onsite testing services provided by AMS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Financing Microgrids in the Federal Sector

Recent high-impact events such as hurricanes and wildfires highlight the need for energy system resilience. One potential impact of these events is the loss of utility grid power to federal sites, negatively affecting the ability to carry out their missions. Depending on the need to sustain critical functions, it may be important to continue operations during an outage of the electric grid, or at least have power restored quickly after the event. One approach to addressing this need is through a microgrid. Microgrids can provide a more reliable solution than the traditional approach of using a backup generator at individual buildings. A microgrid can enhance a site’s electrical power system during normal operations, as well as provide reliable backup power to critical loads when electric utility power is interrupted. Many times, certain components of a microgrid (and potentially the entire system) can be justified economically and paid for out of energy savings or avoided costs. In cases where savings can cover the project costs, one of several privately financed procurement mechanisms may be used to implement the project. Procurement options available to all federal agencies include utility energy services contracts (UESC), energy savings performance contracts (ESPC), and utility services contracts (USC); other mechanisms such as a power purchase agreement (PPA), enhanced use lease (EUL), and utility privatization (UP) may also be useful to agencies that have the authority to use them. Implementing a microgrid in a comprehensive effort that also includes energy efficiency can provide an important savings component, while reducing power requirements for critical loads, thus reducing the cost of the microgrid and associated distributed energy resources (DER). However, it can be difficult to achieve enough savings and avoided costs to cover the entire microgrid system, so leveraging these avoided costs in combination with appropriated funds may be necessary to implement the full project. When a site is deciding if a microgrid is the best solution, activities early in the process include identifying critical loads and existing DERs, conversations with the local electric utility, and implementation options that work best for the agency and site. This paper explores procurement options and agreements that may be useful to federal agencies interested in implementing microgrids at their sites. Microgrid complexities, implementation considerations, and suggestions to get started are also discussed. This information will be most useful to agencies when they are exploring electric energy system resilience options and/or considering different procurement options to meet their needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

ORBIT: Offshore Renewables Balance-of-System and Installation Tool

This report describes the Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool ("ORBIT"), a new model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the balance-of-system (BOS) costs associated with offshore wind projects. In the context of wind energy projects BOS costs encompass all expenses required to construct a project other than the capital expenditures (CapEx) of the turbines and towers, including the procurement costs for all other components (such as substructures, cables, and electrical infrastructure), offshore and land-based construction costs, port costs, site surveying fees, permitting fees, and leasing fees are all categorized as BOS costs. BOS costs significantly contribute to the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for offshore wind, typically comprising over 50\% of the CapEx for a fixed-bottom offshore wind project and 60\% for a floating project. In addition, technology solutions and installation methods vary drastically between projects as they are impacted by factors such as vessel availability, geographic considerations and site geotechnical conditions. These effects require a model with appropriate fidelity to understand how these costs scale as turbine rating increases and the offshore wind supply chain, particularly offshore construction vessels, is expanded. For offshore wind, cost savings attributed to increased turbine rating are primarily realized through BOS procurement and project installation as fewer substructures and less cable are required. BOS costs represent both a modeling challenge, as well as an opportunity, for project developers to optimize solutions to reduce costs. It is critical to understand how these costs are affected by novel technologies, innovative installation processes, and operational constraints in order identify meaningful cost reductions for offshore wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Distributed Solar Adoption in Orlando: A Household-Level Model for Distribution Resource Planning

Potential for rooftop solar in Florida is massive (47% of retail sales, 3rd overall nationally), yet adoption lags (12th nationally). A 2018 Florida Public Service Commission ruling authorizing solar third-party ownership (leasing) has substantially increased attention on distributed solar in the state. The city of Orlando has committed to a 100% clean-energy target by 2050 and deployment of solar and storage are expected to contribute significantly to reaching the goal. Deployment of customer-adopted solar, unlike utility-procured solar, is uncertain, but known to be spatially correlated with demographic factors and existing adoption. We develop a new method to adapt NREL's dGen model in order to represent building-level agents in adoption forecasts for the Orlando Utility Commission (OUC) service territory. Using the agent-based model we develop projections of solar adoption, subject to scenarios varying future solar costs and valuation, and aggregate adoption predictions by OUC distribution feeder. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in the projected level of adoption by OUC distribution feeder. For instance, 25% of all projected adoption through 2050 would be concentrated on just 5% of feeders and 88% of projected adoption on 50% of feeders. Because of the uncertainty in adoption, bottoms-up solar adoption forecasting methods at the household-level are integral to long-term resource planning by anticipating system needs as customers increasingly adopt distributed solar, storage, electric vehicles, and other distributed energy resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗