Results for “interval analysis” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2021

Fractionation of Oxygen Isotopes in Uranium Oxides during Peroxide Precipitation and Dry Air Calcination

The interaction between uranium and oxygen-containing substrates is nearly ubiquitous within the nuclear fuel cycle. Given the well-known and predictable oxygen stable isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen and meteoric waters around the world, the use of these isotopes as a potential geolocation or processing signature of uranium compounds has been of interest within the nuclear safeguards community. This study focuses on measuring the oxygen-stable isotope composition of synthetically produced uranium oxides to determine the mechanism and extent of fractionation during materials processing relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle. Here, metastudtite [UO 2 O 2 (H 2 O) 2 ] samples were first produced using water and hydrogen peroxide of a known oxygen isotope composition. This starting material was calcined in dry air at temperatures ranging from 300 °C to 1000 °C for 20 h producing oxides ranging in composition from UO 3 +x (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.5) to U 3 O 8 . In addition, calcinations between 500 and 800 °C were performed at different time intervals to evaluate the rate of isotopic equilibration. The δ 18 O values of water bound to metastudtite were measured by thermogravimetric analysis coupled to isotope ratio infrared spectroscopy (TGA–IRIS). A redesigned fluorination manifold was constructed at the University of Utah and was used to extract the bulk oxygen from precipitated and calcined products using bromine pentafluoride (BrF 5 ). Mineralization water on metastudtite (measured by TGA–IRIS) was closely associated with the aqueous environment of precipitation with a fractionation of +3.5 ± 0.6‰. In contrast, bulk oxygen from metastudtite (measured by fluorination and gas chromatography combined with isotope ratio mass spectrometry) was found to have an inconsistent fractionation with precipitation water. Samples calcined in dry air exhibited a wide range of oxygen isotope compositions which increased from δ 18 O = +1.4 ± 0.9‰ at 300 °C to +17.3 ± 0.9‰ at 1000 °C. This variation in δ 18 O values was a result of oxygen exchange with atmospheric O 2 and was found to be rapid at calcination temperatures greater than 600°C—with equilibration occurring in less than 2 h. These results provide insights into the incorporation and exchange of oxygen isotopes during precipitation and calcination processes comparable to those employed within the nuclear fuel cycle and establish a foundation for future investigations to build upon.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) Data Sets: Description, Management, and Delivery

The ACT-America project is a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-2 mission designed to study the transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases. The open and freely available ACT-America data sets provide airborne in situ measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorological properties, airborne remote sensing measurements of aerosol backscatter, atmospheric boundary layer height and columnar content of atmospheric carbon dioxide, tower-based measurements, and modeled atmospheric mole fractions and regional carbon fluxes of greenhouse gases over the Central and Eastern United States. In this study, we conducted 121 research flights during five campaigns in four seasons during 2016–2019 over three regions of the US (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South) using two NASA research aircraft (B-200 and C-130). We performed three flight patterns (fair weather, frontal crossings, and OCO-2 underflights) and collected more than 1,140 h of airborne measurements via level-leg flights in the atmospheric boundary layer, lower, and upper free troposphere and vertical profiles spanning these altitudes. We also merged various airborne in situ measurements onto a common standard sampling interval, which brings coherence to the data, creates geolocated data products, and makes it much easier for the users to perform holistic analysis of the ACT-America data products. Here, we report on detailed information of data sets collected, the workflow for data sets including storage and processing of the quality controlled and quality assured harmonized observations, and their archival and formatting for users. Finally, we provide some important information on the dissemination of data products including metadata and highlights of applications of ACT-America data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H_0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H_0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H_0 posterior from GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to |$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68 per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7 per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of |$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cohesive and adhesive degradation in PET-based photovoltaic backsheets subjected to ultraviolet accelerated weathering

Delamination between layers in photovoltaic (PV) backsheets is often reported in the literature, causing voids that can collect moisture, diminish module backside heat dissipation, and reduce the backsheet’s effectiveness as a physical barrier. While backsheets with weathering-resistant fluoropolymer outer layers have traditionally been used in modules, more recent backsheets using non-fluoropolymer outer layers, such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET), have been developed. These backsheets have shown signs of premature degradation, and their adhesion degradation, in particular, has not been widely studied. In the present work, the single cantilever beam (SCB) adhesion test was used to quantify the adhesion energy in two commercially available PET-based backsheets. To study the effect of minor changes in formulation, the backsheets were obtained from same manufacturer and product line but during different years. To study the effect of environmental variables on adhesion degradation, the backsheets were subjected to artificial weathering at controlled temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) radiation in an indoor weathering chamber, and the adhesion energy was quantified at several intervals of exposure time. Layering structure, composition, and adhesion failure mode were compared between the backsheets, using Raman and infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetric analysis. The results show a large difference in initial (unexposed) adhesion energy between the backsheets, despite very similar structures and compositions. Following exposure, adhesion energy dropped significantly, primarily due to thermo-hydrolytic degradation of the polyurethane (PU)-based adhesive layers. Significant UV-induced adhesion degradation of the PET outer layer surface was also observed. The study represents an important step in understanding adhesion degradation in PET-based backsheets, suggesting ways in which adhesion integrity – and, correspondingly, module service life – can be improved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification of ancestral gnathostome Gli3 enhancers with activity in mammals

Abnormal expression of the transcriptional regulator and hedgehog (Hh) signaling pathway effector Gli3 is known to trigger congenital disease, most frequently affecting the central nervous system (CNS) and the limbs. Accurate delineation of the genomic cis-regulatory landscape controlling Gli3 transcription during embryonic development is critical for the interpretation of noncoding variants associated with congenital defects. Here, we employed a comparative genomic analysis on fish species with a slow rate of molecular evolution to identify seven previously unknown conserved noncoding elements (CNEs) in Gli3 intronic intervals (CNE15–21). Transgenic assays in zebrafish revealed that most of these elements drive activities in Gli3 expressing tissues, predominantly the fins, CNS, and the heart. Intersection of these CNEs with human disease associated SNPs identified CNE15 as a putative mammalian craniofacial enhancer, with conserved activity in vertebrates and potentially affected by mutation associated with human craniofacial morphology. Finally, comparative functional dissection of an appendage-specific CNE conserved in slowly evolving fish (elephant shark), but not in teleost (CNE14/hs1586) indicates co-option of limb specificity from other tissues prior to the divergence of amniotes and lobe-finned fish. In conclusion, these results uncover a novel subset of intronic Gli3 enhancers that arose in the common ancestor of gnathostomes and whose sequence components were likely gradually modified in other species during the process of evolutionary diversification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Racoons ( Procyon Lotor ) Show Higher Trypanosoma Cruzi Detection Rates than Virginia Opossums ( Didelphis Virginiana ) in South Carolina, USA

Chagas disease, a significant public health concern in the Americas, is caused by a protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. The life cycle of T. cruzi involves kissing bugs (Triatoma spp.) functioning as vectors and mammalian species serving as hosts. Raccoons (Procyon lotor) and opossums (Didelphis virginiana) have been identified as important reservoir species in the life cycle of T. cruzi, but prevalence in both species in the southeastern US is currently understudied. We quantified T. cruzi prevalence in these two key reservoir species across our study area in South Carolina, US, and identified factors that may influence parasite detection. We collected whole blood from 183 raccoons and 126 opossums and used PCR to detect the presence of T. cruzi. We then used generalized linear models with parasite detection status as a binary response variable and predictor variables of land cover, distance to water, sex, season, and species. Our analysis indicated that raccoons experienced significantly higher parasite detection rates than Virginia opossums, with T. cruzi prevalence found to be 26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.0–33.8) in raccoons and 10.5% (95% CI, 5.51–17.5) in opossums. Altogether, our results concur with previous studies, in that T. cruzi is established in reservoir host populations in natural areas of the southeastern US.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive time scaling for accelerating explicit finite element analysis

A method for accelerating an explicit finite element analysis (FEA) simulation of a modeled system or process includes performing an initial iteration of the FEA simulation according to a baseline time interval via an FEA computing network, and calculating a criteria ratio of a predetermined set of scaling criteria for the modeled system or process. The method includes determining a time-scaling factor using the criteria ratio via the FEA computing network as a function of the criteria ratio, and then applying the time-scaling factor to the baseline time interval to generate a scaled time interval. The scaled time interval accelerates simulation time of the FEA simulation. The method includes performing a subsequent iteration of the explicit FEA simulation at the scaled time interval using the FEA computing network. The process continues for subsequent iterations, with the time-scaling factor adapting with each iteration.

Chen, Jian↗

DOE OSTI2022

Systematic study of projection biases in weak lensing analysis

We present a systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) experiment. In the analysis we used a $\Lambda$CDM model and three two-point correlation functions. We show that these biases are a consequence of projecting, or marginalizing, over parameters like $h$, $\Omega_b$, $n_s$ and $\Omega_\nu h^2$ that are both poorly constrained and correlated with the parameters of interest like $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$ and $S_8$. Covering the relevant parameter space we show that the projection biases are a function of where the true values of the poorly constrained parameters lie with respect to the parameter priors. For example, biases in the position of the posteriors can exceed the 1.5$\sigma$ level if the true values of $h$ and $n_s$ are close to the top of the prior's range and the true values of $\Omega_b$ and $\Omega_\nu h^2$ are close to the bottom of the range of their priors. We also show that in some cases the 1D credible intervals can be over-specified by as much as 30% and coverage can be as low as 27%. Finally we estimate these projection biases for the analysis of three and six years worth of DES data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine Temperature Grid Continuous Energy Cross Section Generation for Monte Carlo Analysis of Xe-100 Design

The standard “A Compact ENDF (ACE)” data libraries used by Monte Carlo based reactor physics codes calculations are provided by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) with a temperature interval mostly of 300 K (e.g. 300 K, 600 K, 900 K) for the cross sections and between 100 K and 200 K for the thermal scattering libraries (TSL). However, some codes such as MCNP lack capability to perform on-the-fly temperature interpolation during simulation both for neutron and TSL cross-sections. To evaluate the impact related to Doppler broadening and spectrum shift associated with TSL changes, this paper explores the potential of adopting a temperature grid finer than the ones contained in the standard data libraries. A 50 K temperature grid was employed to quantify the error in neutronics calculations due to temperature grid resolution. This was achieved by comparing the results of this study (50 K temperature interval) against the results obtained with standard data libraries (>100 K temperature interval). While the adopted grid primarily relies on the ENDF/B-VII.1 library, for neutron cross-sections, it utilizes ENDF/B-VIII.0 library for TSL. The analyses confirmed that the accuracy of neutronics calculations is satisfactory when using a 50 K temperature grid. Notably, adopting a 50 K temperature grid, as opposed to standard libraries or coarser temperature grids, could lead to a difference of no more than a few hundred pcm in dk for both fresh fuel and burnt fuel. The most sensitive reaction type to the temperature grid was as expected identified as the capture cross-section of U-238.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for Quasiparticle Scattering in the Quark-Gluon Plasma with Jet Splittings in 𝑝⁢𝑝 and Pb-Pb Collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The ALICE Collaboration reports measurements of the large relative transverse momentum (𝑘 𝑇 ) component of jet substructure in 𝑝⁢𝑝 and Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. Enhancement in the yield of such large-𝑘 T emissions in head-on Pb-Pb collisions is predicted to arise from partonic scattering with quasiparticles of the quark-gluon plasma. The analysis utilizes charged-particle jets reconstructed by the anti-𝑘 T algorithm with resolution parameter 𝑅 = 0.2 in the transverse-momentum interval 60 < 𝑝 T,ch,jet < 80 GeV/𝑐. The soft drop and dynamical grooming algorithms are used to identify high transverse momentum splittings in the jet shower. Comparison of measurements in Pb-Pb and 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions shows medium-induced narrowing, corresponding to yield suppression of high-𝑘 𝑇 splittings, in contrast to the expectation of yield enhancement due to quasiparticle scattering. The measurements are compared to theoretical model calculations incorporating jet modification due to jet-medium interactions (“jet quenching”), both with and without quasiparticle scattering effects. These measurements provide new insight into the underlying mechanisms and theoretical modeling of jet quenching.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experiments on excitation of Alfvén eigenmodes by alpha-particles with bump-on-tail distribution in JET DTE2 plasmas

Dedicated experiments were performed in JET DTE2 plasmas for obtaining an α-particle bump-on-tail (BOT) distribution aiming at exciting Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Neutral beam injection-only heating with modulated power was used so that fusion-born α-particles were the only ions present in the MeV energy range in these DT plasmas. The beam power modulation on a time scale shorter than the α-particle slowing down time was chosen for modulating the α-particle source and thus sustaining a BOT in the α-particle distribution. High-frequency modes in the toroidicity-induced Alfven eigenmode (TAE) frequency range and multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range have been detected in these DT discharges with interferometry, soft x-ray cameras, and reflectometry. The modes observed were localised close to the magnetic axis and were not seen in the Mirnov coils. Analysis with the TRANSP and Fokker-Planck FIDIT codes confirms that α-particle distributions with BOT in energy were achieved during some time intervals in these discharges though no clear correlation was found between the times of the high-frequency mode excitation and the BOT time intervals. The combined magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) and kinetic modelling studies show that the high-frequency mode in the TAE frequency range is best fitted with a TAE of toroidal mode number n= 9. This mode is driven mostly by the on-axis beam ions while the smaller drive due to the pressure gradient of α-particles allows overcoming the marginal stability and exciting the mode. The observed multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range are identified as the on-axis kinetic AEs predicted in Rosenbluth and Rutherford.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Empirical Formula for Puncture Energy of Flat Metal Plates by a Cylindrical Flat Punch

Impact problems of plate-like parts by punch-like objects with relatively large mass moving at slow speeds of a few feet per second constitute a subset of impact problems of interest at Sandia. This is in contrast to small objects moving in the range of hundreds or thousands of feet per second or higher. The objective of this work is to develop a simple formula that can be used to estimate a lower bound for the puncture energy of metal plates impacted by cylindrical, essentially rigid punches of circular cross-section and at nose. Such geometry is used as a basis in the design of puncture mitigation barriers or procedures. This was accomplished by deriving an expression using non-dimensional analysis and then calibrating it based on tests results in the range of speeds of interest. Lower bounds can then be determined based on confidence intervals or factors of safety.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗