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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗
NASA NTRS1977

Environmental synchronizers of squirrel monkey circadian rhythms

Various temporal signals in the environment were tested to determine if they could synchronize the circadian timing system of the squirrel monkey (Saimiri sciureus). The influence of cycles of light and dark, eating and fasting, water availability and deprivation, warm and cool temperature, sound and quiet, and social interaction and isolation on the drinking and activity rhythms of unrestrained monkeys was examined. In the absence of other time cues, 24-hr cycles of each of these potential synchronizers were applied for up to 3 wk, and the periods of the monkey's circadian rhythms were examined. Only light-dark cycles and cycles of food availability were shown to be entraining agents, since they were effective in determining the period and phase of the rhythmic variables. In the presence of each of the other environmental cycles, the monkey's circadian rhythms exhibited free-running periods which were significantly different from 24 hr with all possible phase relationships between the rhythms and the environmental cycles being examined.

Sulzman, F. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Predictive Interfaces for Long-Distance Tele-Operations

We address the development of predictive tele-operator interfaces for humanoid robots with respect to two basic challenges. Firstly, we address automating the transition from fully tele-operated systems towards degrees of autonomy. Secondly, we develop compensation for the time-delay that exists when sending telemetry data from a remote operation point to robots located at low earth orbit and beyond. Humanoid robots have a great advantage over other robotic platforms for use in space-based construction and maintenance because they can use the same tools as astronauts do. The major disadvantage is that they are difficult to control due to the large number of degrees of freedom, which makes it difficult to synthesize autonomous behaviors using conventional means. We are working with the NASA Johnson Space Center's Robonaut which is an anthropomorphic robot with fully articulated hands, arms, and neck. We have trained hidden Markov models that make use of the command data, sensory streams, and other relevant data sources to predict a tele-operator's intent. This allows us to achieve subgoal level commanding without the use of predefined command dictionaries, and to create sub-goal autonomy via sequence generation from generative models. Our method works as a means to incrementally transition from manual tele-operation to semi-autonomous, supervised operation. The multi-agent laboratory experiments conducted by Ambrose et. al. have shown that it is feasible to directly tele-operate multiple Robonauts with humans to perform complex tasks such as truss assembly. However, once a time-delay is introduced into the system, the rate of tele\ioperation slows down to mimic a bump and wait type of activity. We would like to maintain the same interface to the operator despite time-delays. To this end, we are developing an interface which will allow for us to predict the intentions of the operator while interacting with a 3D virtual representation of the expected state of the robot. The predictive interface anticipates the intention of the operator, and then uses this prediction to initiate appropriate sub-goal autonomy tasks.

Wheeler, Kevin R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Adjustable Autonomy Testbed

The Adjustable Autonomy Testbed (AAT) is a simulation-based testbed located in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory in the Automation, Robotics and Simulation Division at NASA Johnson Space Center. The purpose of the testbed is to support evaluation and validation of prototypes of adjustable autonomous agent software for control and fault management for complex systems. The AA T project has developed prototype adjustable autonomous agent software and human interfaces for cooperative fault management. This software builds on current autonomous agent technology by altering the architecture, components and interfaces for effective teamwork between autonomous systems and human experts. Autonomous agents include a planner, flexible executive, low level control and deductive model-based fault isolation. Adjustable autonomy is intended to increase the flexibility and effectiveness of fault management with an autonomous system. The test domain for this work is control of advanced life support systems for habitats for planetary exploration. The CONFIG hybrid discrete event simulation environment provides flexible and dynamically reconfigurable models of the behavior of components and fluids in the life support systems. Both discrete event and continuous (discrete time) simulation are supported, and flows and pressures are computed globally. This provides fast dynamic simulations of interacting hardware systems in closed loops that can be reconfigured during operations scenarios, producing complex cascading effects of operations and failures. Current object-oriented model libraries support modeling of fluid systems, and models have been developed of physico-chemical and biological subsystems for processing advanced life support gases. In FY01, water recovery system models will be developed.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Cognitive-System Model for En Route Air Traffic Management

NASA Ames Research Center has been engaged in the development of advanced air traffic management technologies whose basic form is cognitive aiding systems for air traffic controller and flight deck operations. In the design and evaluation of such systems the dynamic interaction between the airborne aiding system and the ground-based aiding systems forms a critical coupling for control. The human operator is an integral control element in the system and the optimal integration of human decision and performance parameters with those of the automation aiding systems offers a significant challenge to cognitive engineering. This paper presents a study in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance. We have found that this combination of methodologies provide a powerful design-aiding process. We have extended the computational model Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (N13DAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems), operating aircraft airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require the representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. We have exercised this model in a multi-air traffic sector scenario with potential conflict among aircraft at and across sector boundaries. We have modeled the control situation as a multiple closed loop system. The inner and outer loop alerting structure of air traffic management has many implications that need to be investigated to assure adequate design. First, there are control and stability factors implicit in the design. As the inner loop response time approaches that of the outer loop, system stability may be compromised in that controllers may be solving a problem the nature of which has already been changed by pilot action. Second, information exchange and information presentation for both air and ground must be designed to complement as opposed to compete with each other. Third, the level of individual and shared awareness in trajectory modification and flight conformance needs to be defined. Fourth, the level of required awareness and performance impact of mixed fleet operations and failed-mode recovery must be explored.

Corker, Kevin M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Structure and Dynamics of Freely Suspended Liquid Crystals

Smectic liquid crystals are phases of rod shaped molecules organized into one dimensionally (1 D) periodic arrays of layers, each layer being between one and two molecular lengths thick. In the least ordered smectic phases, the smectics A and C, each layer is a two dimensional (2D) liquid. Additionally there are a variety of more ordered smectic phases having hexatic short range translational order or 2D crystalline or quasi long range translational order within the layers. The inherent fluid-layer structure and low vapor pressure of smectic liquid crystals enables the long term stabilization of freely suspended, single component, layered fluid films as thin as 30A, a single molecular layer. The layering forces the films to be an integral number of smectic layers thick, quantizing their thickness in layer units and forcing a film of a particular number of layers to be physically homogeneous with respect to its layer structure over its entire area. Optical reflectivity enables the precise determination of the number of layers. These ultrathin freely suspended liquid crystal films are structures of fundamental interest in condensed matter and fluid physics. They are the thinnest known stable fluid structures and have the largest surface-to-volume ratio of any stable fluid preparation, making them ideal for the study of the effects of reduced dimensionality on phase behavior and on fluctuation and interface phenomena. Their low vapor pressure and quantized thickness enable the effective use of microgravity to extend the study of basic capillary phenomena to ultrathin fluid films. Freely suspended films have been a wellspring of new LC physics. They have been used to provide unique experimental conditions for the study of condensed phase transitions in two dimensions. They are the only system in which the hexatic has been unambiguously identified as a phase of matter, and the only physical system in which fluctuations of a 2D XY system and Kosterlitz Thouless phase transition has been observed and 2D XY quasi long range order verified. Smectic films have enabled the precise determination of smectic layer electron density and positional fluctuation profiles and have been used to show that the interlayer interactions in antiferroelectric tilted smectics do not extend significantly beyond nearest neighbors. Freely suspended films played a pivotal role in the recent discovery of macroscopic chiral-polar ordering in fluids of achiral molecules. The interactions which are operative in liquid crystals are generally weak in comparison to those in crystalline phases, leading to the facile manipulation of the order in liquid crystals by external agents such as applied fields and surfaces. Effects arising from weak ordering are significantly enhanced in ultrathin free films and filaments, in which the intermolecular coupling is effectively further reduced by loss of neighbors. Over the past four years this research, which we now detail, has produced a host of exciting new discoveries and unexpected results, maintaining the study of freely suspended liquid crystal structures as one of most exciting and fruitful areas of complex fluid physics. In addition, a class of experiments on the behavior of 1D interfaces in 2D films have been pursued with results that point to potentially quite interesting effects in microgravity.

Clark, Noel A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Controller Inhibition of Automated Conflict Resolutions in a Maximum NextGen Condition

With the continued projection of increases in air traffic density, operations in the National Airspace System are expected to exceed human capabilities in the near future. In order to address the bottleneck of human workload capacity, highly automated safety-critical systems are under development to support air traffic controllers. A human-in-the-loop experiment examined controllers transition through four NextGen automation stages: Current-Day, Minimum, Moderate, and Maximum. Maximum NextGen simulated a fully automated environment where the automation was responsible for detecting and resolving conflicts within simulation parameters in high-density airspace. By allocating these tasks to the automation, the controllers task changed. The human moved to primarily a supervisory position- typically only regaining control over separation assurance tasks during conflict situations deferred by the automation. While tasks were allocated a-priori between the controller and automated agent, controllers maintained authority to inhibit the automation from interacting with particular aircraft. Preliminary work is complete, where significant differences were found in inhibition frequency between simulation participants. However, the contexts in which the controllers inhibited the automation, and their reasons for doing so, remain unclear. This analysis attempts to identity factors contributing to human controllers inhibition of the automation in the Maximum NextGen condition.

adaptable automation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗
NASA NTRS2005

Expedition Memory: Towards Agent-based Web Services for Creating and Using Mars Exploration Data.

Explorers ranging over kilometers of rugged, sometimes "feature-less" terrain for over a year could be overwhelmed by tracking and sharing what they have done and learned. An automated system based on the existing Mobile Agents design [ I ] and Mars Exploration Rover experience [2], could serve as an "expedition memory" that would be indexed by voice as wel1 as a web interface, linking people, places, activities, records (voice notes, photographs, samples). and a descriptive scientific ontology. This database would be accessible during EVAs by astronauts, annotated by the remote science team, linked to EVA plans, and allow cross indexing between sites and expeditions. We consider the basic problem, our philosophical approach, technical methods, and uses of the expedition memory for facilitating long-term collaboration between Mars crews and Earth support teams. We emphasize that a "memory" does not mean a database per se, but an interactive service that combines different resources, and ultimately could be like a helpful librarian.

Clancey, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Apex Reference Manual 3.0 Beta

Apex is a toolkit for constructing software that behaves intelligently and responsively in demanding task environments. Reflecting its origin at NASA where Apex continues to be developed, current applications include: a) Providing autonomous mission management and tactical control capabilities for unmanned aerial vehicles including an autonomous surveillance helicopter and a simulation prototype of an unmanned fixed-wing aircraft to be used for wildfire mapping; b) Simulating human air traffic controllers, pilots and astronauts to help predict how people might respond to changes in equipment or procedures; and c) Predicting the precise duration and sequence of routine human behaviors based on a human-computer interaction engineering technique called CPM-GOMS. Among Apex s components are a set of implemented reasoning services, such as those for reactive planning and temporal pattern recognition; a software architecture that embeds and integrates these services and allows additional reasoning elements to be added as extensions; a formal language for specifying agent knowledge; a simulation environment to facilitate prototyping and analysis; and Sherpa, a set of tools for visualizing autonomy logic and runtime behavior. In combination, these are meant to provide a flexible and usable framework for creating, testing, and deploying intelligent agent software. Overall, our goal in developing Apex is to lower economic barriers to developing intelligent software agents. New ideas about how to extend or modify the system are evaluated in terms of their impact in reducing the time, expertise, and inventiveness required to build and maintain applications. For example, potential enhancements to the AI reasoning capabilities in the system are reviewed not only for usefulness and distinctiveness, but also for their impact on the readability and general usability of Apex s behavior representation language (PDL) and on the transparency of resulting behavior. A second central part of our approach is to iteratively refine Apex based on lessons learned from as diverse a set of applications as possible. Many applications have been developed by users outside the core development team including engineers, researchers, and students. Usability is thus a central concern for every aspect of Apex visible to a user, including PDL, Sherpa, the Apex installation process, APIs, and user documentation. Apex users vary in their areas of expertise and in their familiarity with autonomy technology. Focusing on usability, a development philosophy summarized by the project motto "Usable Autonomy," has been important part of enabling diverse users to employ Apex successfully and to provide feedback needed to guide iterative, user-centered refinement.

Freed, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Compliant Task Execution and Learning for Safe Mixed-Initiative Human-Robot Operations

We introduce a novel task execution capability that enhances the ability of in-situ crew members to function independently from Earth by enabling safe and efficient interaction with automated systems. This task execution capability provides the ability to (1) map goal-directed commands from humans into safe, compliant, automated actions, (2) quickly and safely respond to human commands and actions during task execution, and (3) specify complex motions through teaching by demonstration. Our results are applicable to future surface robotic systems, and we have demonstrated these capabilities on JPL's All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer (ATHLETE) robot.

multi-agent collaboration↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Atmospheric aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

GCM-global climate model↗
NASA NTRS2016

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linking Individual Variation in Movement Behavior to Infection Dynamics in Highly Mobile Species

Animal movements are linked to infectious disease dynamics in wildlife through multiple mechanisms across various spatial and temporal scales. For example, infections can impede the movement of infected individuals, but infected hosts can also disperse infectious agents as they move. Individuals inevitably vary in their responses to infections and their roles in determining infection dynamics, which means that considering variation among individuals – whether across species, across time, or within populations – is important for understanding movement-disease relationships and their implications for epidemiology. Here, I draw on studies from multiple systems to examine how variation in movement behavior links to infectious disease epidemiology. For example, a comparative study of habitat selection across multiple waterfowl species highlights that diel behavioral patterns, rather than individual or seasonal variation, is the most important driver of the risk of overlap between waterfowl and poultry farms, and therefore for the risk of avian influenza spillover. Together, these studies show that individual traits interact with the environment to influence the roles of individuals for infectious disease ecology.

Claire Stewart Teitelbaum↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗