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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Tracking motions from satellite water vapor imagery: Quantitative applications to hurricane track forecasting

Water vapor imagery from GOES satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively, mainly in a qualitative mode, by forecasters in the United States (Weldon and Holmes, 1991). Some attempts have been made at quantifying the data by tracking features in time sequences of the imagery (Stewart et al., 1985; Hayden and Stewart, 1987). For a variety of reasons, applications of this approach have produced marginal results (Velden, 1990). Recently, METEOSAT-3 (M-3) was repositioned at 50W by the European Space Agency, in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the GOES satellite, the M-3 has a superior resolution and signal-to-noise ratio in its water vapor channel, which translates into improved automated tracking capabilities. During a period in 1992 which included the Atlantic hurricane season, water vapor tracking algorithms were applied to the M-3 data in order to evaluate the coverage, accuracy and model impact of the derived vectors. Data sets were produced during several tropical cyclone cases, including Hurricane Andrew. In this paper, the M-3 water vapor wind sets are assessed, and their impact on a hurricane track forecast model is examined.

Velden, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2021

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗
NASA NTRS1996

Modelling System Processes to Support Uncertainty Analysis and Robustness Evaluation

In the use of advanced systems control techniques in the development of a dynamic system, results from effective mathematical modelling is required. Historically, in some cases the use of a model which only reflects the "expected" or "nominal" important -information about the system's internal processes has resulted in acceptable system performance, but it should be recognized that for those cases success was due to a combination of the remarkable inherent potential of feedback control for robustness and fortuitously wide margins between system performance requirements and system performance capability. In the cases of a CELSS development, no such fortuitous combinations should be expected, and it should be expected that the uncertainty in the information on the system's processes will have to be taken into account in order to generate a performance robust design. In this paper, we develop one perspective of the issue of providing robustness as mathematical modelling impacts it, and present some examples of model formats which serve the needed purpose.

Blackwell, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Simulation of Shuttle Launch and Range Operations

The simulation and modeling test bed is based on a mockup of a space flight operations control suitable to experiment physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The test bed consists of a weather expert system to advise on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, impact of human health risk, debris dispersion model in 3D visualization. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

Bardina, Jorge↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Test of Maxwell's Z Model Using Inverse Modeling

In modeling impact craters a small region of energy and momentum deposition, commonly called a "point source", is often assumed. This assumption implies that an impact is the same as an explosion at some depth below the surface. Maxwell's Z Model, an empirical point-source model derived from explosion cratering, has previously been compared with numerical impact craters with vertical incidence angles, leading to two main inferences. First, the flowfield center of the Z Model must be placed below the target surface in order to replicate numerical impact craters. Second, for vertical impacts, the flow-field center cannot be stationary if the value of Z is held constant; rather, the flow-field center migrates downward as the crater grows. The work presented here evaluates the utility of the Z Model for reproducing both vertical and oblique experimental impact data obtained at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). Specifically, ejection angle data obtained through Three-Dimensional Particle Image Velocimetry (3D PIV) are used to constrain the parameters of Maxwell's Z Model, including the value of Z and the depth and position of the flow-field center via inverse modeling.

Anderson, J. L. B.↗
NASA NTRS2026

A Summary of Test and Analysis Results from a Second Lift+Cruise Full-Scale Drop Test

The realization of advanced air mobility markets is enabling new forms of transportation to take shape in the United States and around the world. Though currently in development, as these markets mature, new types of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicles have been undergoing development for use. There are many factors which must be addressed prior to these types of vehicles becoming viable alternative forms of transportation in these markets. These factors include incorporation into the existing airspaces, the logistics of operating in urban environments, along with numerous factors associated with safety and reliability. To address some of the safety aspects associated with the development of these new types of vehicles, NASA has been conducting research into the performance of an example electric VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft as a part of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) project. Over the course of this research, many aspects including the development of energy absorbing components, the evaluation of seating systems, the development of advanced finite element material model systems and the acquisition of full-scale vehicle impact data were investigated. The report will discuss aspects related to the acquisition of full-scale vehicle data which occurred in the form of a full-scale impact test conducted in the Summer of 2025. This test was on a NASA designed Lift+Cruise composite cabin test article and represented a partial capstone in the entirety of previous eVTOL research conducted for the project. In this test, a variety of experiments were included in order to investigate the effect of a full-scale environment on the experiment results. In parallel, the development of a computational impact model to simulate the full-scale test will be discussed in this report. A model of the Lift+Cruise test article was developed utilizing data collected from previous sub- and full-scale test data and then simulated in the current test environment. The model development, its use in pre-test predictions, and its use in post-test correlation will all be presented. This report will present the test data acquired from the Lift+Cruise test and document several of the results obtained. One intended result is to determine the effect of a complex full-scale crash impact on the identification of occupant injury risk within seat and vehicle designs. A second intended result is to determine whether high-fidelity models can be used with some confidence in the prediction of test events and can allow for additional test cases to be simulated without the need of having to conduct additional tests. The overall goal of the test is to provide the community with data that can be used for design, development or certification efforts, along with providing data on what an example eVTOL crash incident could entail.

energy storage systems↗
NASA NTRS1978

A composition and thickness model for lunar impact crater and basin deposits

A model was developed for determining the composition and thicknesses of continuous deposits of large lunar impact craters and basins. Results of a photogeologic study and topographic analysis of continuous deposits of the lunar crater Delisle, which support the model, show that numerous secondary craters and crater chains with concentric dunes on their uprange rims occur well within the mapped deposits. At any given radius from Delisle, the secondary craters are of equal freshness and not vastly different in size, but with increasing radius they become better defined. The upper surface of the continuous deposits reaches the level of the pre-existing mare surface well within the mapped boundary of the deposits.

Morrison, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ballistic Performance of Porous-Ceramic, Thermal Protection Systems

Porous-ceramic, thermal protection systems are used heavily in current reentry vehicles like the Orbiter, and they are currently being proposed for the next generation of US manned spacecraft, Orion. These systems insulate reentry critical components of a spacecraft against the intense thermal environments of atmospheric reentry. Additionally, these materials are highly exposed to space environment hazards like solid particle impacts. This paper discusses impact studies up to 10 km/s on 8 lb/cu ft alumina-fiber-enhanced-thermal-barrier (AETB8) tiles coated with a toughened-unipiece-fibrous-insulation/ reaction-cured-glass layer (TUFI/RCG). A semi-empirical, first principals impact model that describes projectile dispersion is described that provides excellent agreement with observations over a broad range of impact velocities, obliquities and projectile materials. Model extensions to look at the implications of greater than 10 GPa equation of state is also discussed. Predicted penetration probabilities for a vehicle visiting the International Space Station is 60% lower for orbital debris and 95% lower for meteoroids with this model compared to an energy scaled approach.

Miller, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Evolution of Oblique Impact Flow Fields Using Maxwell's Z Model

Oblique impacts are the norm rather than the exception for impact craters on planetary surfaces. This work focuses on the excavation of experimental oblique impact craters using the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). Three-dimensional particle image velocimetry (3D PIV) is used to obtain quantitative data on ejection positions, three dimensional velocities and angles. These data are then used to constrain Maxwell's Z Model and follow the subsurface evolution of the excavation-stage flow-field center during oblique impacts.

Anderson, J. L. B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Damage tolerance in filament-wound graphite/epoxy pressure vessels

Graphite/epoxy composites are extensively used in the aerospace and sporting goods industries due to their superior engineering properties compared to those of metals. However, graphite/epoxy is extremely susceptible to impact damage which can cause considerable and sometimes undetected reduction in strength. An inelastic impact model was developed to predict damage due to low-velocity impact. A transient dynamic finite element formulation was used in conjunction with the 3D Tsai-Wu failure criterion to determine and incorporate failure in the materials during impact. Material degradation can be adjusted from no degradation to partial degradation to full degradation. The developed software is based on an object-oriented implementation framework called Extensible Implementation Framework for Finite Elements (EIFFE).

Simon, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Evolution of Oblique Impact Flow Fields Using Maxwell's Z Model

Oblique impacts are the norm rather than the exception for impact craters on planetary surfaces. This work focuses on the excavation of experimental oblique impact craters using the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). Three-dimensional particle image velocimetry (3D PIV) is used to obtain quantitative data on ejection positions, three-dimensional velocities and angles. These data are then used to test the applicability and limitations of Maxwell's Z Model in representing the subsurface evolution of the excavation-stage flow-field center during vertical and oblique impacts.

Anderson, J. L. B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Constraints on the Formation of the Moon from High-Precision ND-Isotopic Measurements of Lunar Basalts

The most widely accepted theory for the formation of the Earth-Moon system proposes a giant impact model, where Earth collided in its later stages of accretion with a body of the approximate size of Mars [1, 2]. In this model, the Moon ultimately formed from hot debris generated during this giant impact. Short-lived radioisotopes such as Sm-146 (t(sub 1/2) = 103 Ma) may be useful in determining the chronology of the events that formed the Earth-Moon system and for how these terrestrial bodies evolved following accretion. New high-precision samarium-neodymium data showed that chondritic meteorites are on average 20 ppm lower in 142Nd/144Nd than terrestrial samples [3]. These data suggest that if the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) has a Sm/Nd ratio within the range measured for chondrites, the higher-than-chondritic Nd-142/Nd-144 ratio of terrestrial materials requires that the silicate Earth experienced a global chemical differentiation during the lifetime of Sm-146. If the Moon has super-chondritic Nd-142/Nd-144 identical to the Earth, as suggested by available data [4], then the giant impact must have occurred into an already differentiated Earth, predominantly sampling the Nd-depleted reservoir. In order to test this hypothesis, high-precision Nd-isotope ratios were obtained on a Thermo-Finnigan Triton TIMS for six lunar basalts that span the compositional range of lavas from the Moon: Samples 15555 and LAP 02205 represent low-Ti basalts; 70017 and 74275 are high-Ti basalts; 15386 and SAU 169 are KREEP basalts.

Rankenburg, K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

Chen, Neil↗