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At least 163 records · Page 9

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Statistical Symbolic Execution with Informed Sampling

Symbolic execution techniques have been proposed recently for the probabilistic analysis of programs. These techniques seek to quantify the likelihood of reaching program events of interest, e.g., assert violations. They have many promising applications but have scalability issues due to high computational demand. To address this challenge, we propose a statistical symbolic execution technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of the symbolic program paths and uses the obtained information for Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing with respect to the probability of reaching the target events. To speed up the convergence of the statistical analysis, we propose Informed Sampling, an iterative symbolic execution that first explores the paths that have high statistical significance, prunes them from the state space and guides the execution towards less likely paths. The technique combines Bayesian estimation with a partial exact analysis for the pruned paths leading to provably improved convergence of the statistical analysis. We have implemented statistical symbolic execution with in- formed sampling in the Symbolic PathFinder tool. We show experimentally that the informed sampling obtains more precise results and converges faster than a purely statistical analysis and may also be more efficient than an exact symbolic analysis. When the latter does not terminate symbolic execution with informed sampling can give meaningful results under the same time and memory limits.

Reliability↗

CA Risk Assessment Approaches

Current single-Pc approach work well when subtended by appropriate hypothesis-testing framework. Reframing construct in terms of miss distance distribution would confer certain advantages such as reducing to same import as Pc, but still convey some additional information. Methods to incorporate known uncertainties in covariances and HBR should be pursued that can also be framed in terms of miss distance distribution. We present Plausibilistic II and Possibilistic constructs, to determine their adequacy and viable recommendation.

Conjunction↗

Evaluating Biosignatures for Life Detection

The goal here is to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in a given space environment rather than on their detection, which depends on the current state of technology. Suitable evaluation procedures are based on an extensive body of previous work on related problems in which different options are evaluated to make decisions in business, engineering, medical fields and social or political arena. In these cases, three approaches have proven to be particularly useful. Two of them, signal detection theory (SDT) and Bayesian hypothesis testing are based on probabilities. The third approach, multi-attribute utility (MAU) is based on utility theory.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Exploring the human-nature dynamics of Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai, Earth's newest landmass

This paper examines the human-nature dynamics of volcanic eruptions through a multidisciplinary exploration of the recently-formed Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha‘apai (HTHH) landmass in the Kingdom of Tonga. HTHH was formed in early 2015 in the Ha‘apai island group in southwestern Tonga. This landmass has persisted longer than expected, providing a rare opportunity to examine pathways of erosion and biological colonization, and offering a glimpse into the cultural dynamics of a continuously changing Polynesian seascape. In 2018 and 2019, a collaborative partnership between the Kingdomof Tonga, Sea Education Association (SEA), and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ran expeditions to HTHH to calibrate satellite observations via field, ship, and drone-based measurements. In accessing HTHH via SEA's sailing school vessel (SSV) the Robert C. Seamans, a team of scientists and students combined fieldwork in anthropology, oceanography, and physical volcanology to study micro- and macro-scale dynamics of this classical surtseyan eruption site. In this pathfinding paper, we discuss the value of involving students in the process of real-time scientific discovery with on-the-fly adaptive hypothesis testing; this collaborative project provided mutual benefit to initiatives in science and education by offering robust data collection, while expanding environmental and cultural literacy. Additionally, we integrate collaborative research on HTHH with ethnographic research to understand how this ever changing “sea of islands” or intimately interconnected island spaces impact social-cultural relations within Oceania. We emphasize the importance of such multidisciplinary research in understanding the complexity of human-nature relations in a rapidly changing world.

Emily B. Hite↗

Toward Comprehensive Uncertainty Predictions for Remote Imaging Spectroscopy

Remote imaging spectroscopy’s role in Earth science will grow in the coming decade as a series of globe-spanning spectroscopy missions launch from NASA, ESA, and other agencies. The nature of remote imaging spectroscopy will change, advancing from short regional studies to address global multi-year questions. The diversity of data will also grow with exposure to a wider range of biomes and atmospheric conditions. To execute these new investigations we must reconcile diverse observing conditions to derive consistent global maps. To this end, rig- orous uncertainty quantification and propagation enables an optimal synthesis of data accounting for observing conditions and data quality. Understanding data uncertainties is also important for principled hypothesis testing, information content assessment, and informed decision making by end users. We survey prior efforts in uncer- tainty quantification for imaging spectroscopy, and describe methods for validating the accuracy of uncertainty predictions. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges and promising avenues for future research.

Susiluoto, Jouni↗

Using A Guided Interview to Create an Individual Exposure Profile for The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH)

BACKGROUND To support NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) project, Individual Exposure Profiles (IEPs) were developed to record an astronaut’s pre-, in-, and post-NASA exposures. NASA astronauts were invited to participate in a one-time guided interview to review known hazard exposures and medical history documented in NASA records and to add new information not otherwise reported. The purpose of the IEP project was to determine if any significant information was gained from these interviews and identify potential trends in long-term health. METHODOLOGY The pre-filled exposure profile data was extracted from several sources including medical records, biographies, and LSAH records. The information that was pre-filled before the interview included occupational exposures prior to selection to the Astronaut Corps, during active astronaut career (e.g., EVA and ground-based training, on-orbit exposures), and after active career. The IEPs also contained relevant medical history (e.g., audiometry, illnesses, injuries) and significant non-occupational exposures. 189 interviews were conducted from 2012-2014. A Microsoft Access database was created to store the information collected in the IEPs before and after the interviews. The database houses the information from the IEPs to track the updates made to the original data. By analyzing which astronauts supplied additional information and which kinds of data were consistently added, potential gaps and trends in missing data may be identified. In designing the database, an efficient structure was implemented for ease of inputting data and to create variables that would generate quantifiable data. Creating standardized variables within the structure helped ease the process of inputting, organizing data, and analyzing data. Additional updates/data were denoted and were categorized by type of update. The categories identified were “Confirmed”, “Confirmed & Supplemented”, “Supplemented”, “Denied”, “Denied & Supplemented”, and “Other”. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS To assess frequency of exposure updates, descriptive statistics will be generated and stratified by relevant factors such as astronaut selection decade, age at selection, and program/era. Hypothesis testing will be performed to understand the associations between updates to exposure information and population characteristics.

Astronaut health↗

On the Effects of Cloud Water Content on Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals

The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.

Snowfall↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Cyanobacteria Photosynthetic Energy Platform (1.3.4.301)

Cyanobacteria Photosynthetic Energy Platform (WBS 1.3.4.301) The primary challenge in algal technology is low energy conversion efficiency, currently up to a few percentages from photon energy to biomass energy. Most incoming solar energy is lost in the processes of photosynthesis, through mechanisms that are not fully understood. There is large room for improvement. This project develops cyanobacteria genetic tools to improve photosynthetic efficiency and biomass productivity through manipulation of energy regulation mechanisms. Increasing algal biomass productivity by 20% translates to $2 reduction of MFSP. Genetic manipulation is an essential tool in understanding and improving algal productivity. While genetic manipulation is challenging for most algae, model cyanobacteria, with in-house mutant library and genetic engineering toolboxes, allow for rapid hypothesis testing and transfer of lessons to other cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae. We developed Energome (energy-ome) concept to guide novel engineering strategies and unleash unused potential in photosynthesis. Energome consists of cellular energy management mechanisms. For example, we found that cyanobacteria use futile cycles around glycogen and sucrose to dissipate ATP. By genetic modification, the model cyanobacterium Synechocystis 6803 showed higher energy levels, increased photosynthetic capacity, and 20% improvement in biomass yield in simulated outdoor light conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Experimental tests of a superposition hypothesis to explain the relationship between the vestibuloocular reflex and smooth pursuit during horizontal combined eye-head tracking in humans

1. We used a modeling approach to test the hypothesis that, in humans, the smooth pursuit (SP) system provides the primary signal for cancelling the vestibuloocular reflex (VOR) during combined eye-head tracking (CEHT) of a target moving smoothly in the horizontal plane. Separate models for SP and the VOR were developed. The optimal values of parameters of the two models were calculated using measured responses of four subjects to trials of SP and the visually enhanced VOR. After optimal parameter values were specified, each model generated waveforms that accurately reflected the subjects' responses to SP and vestibular stimuli. The models were then combined into a CEHT model wherein the final eye movement command signal was generated as the linear summation of the signals from the SP and VOR pathways. 2. The SP-VOR superposition hypothesis was tested using two types of CEHT stimuli, both of which involved passive rotation of subjects in a vestibular chair. The first stimulus consisted of a "chair brake" or sudden stop of the subject's head during CEHT; the visual target continued to move. The second stimulus consisted of a sudden change from the visually enhanced VOR to CEHT ("delayed target onset" paradigm); as the vestibular chair rotated past the angular position of the stationary visual stimulus, the latter started to move in synchrony with the chair. Data collected during experiments that employed these stimuli were compared quantitatively with predictions made by the CEHT model. 3. During CEHT, when the chair was suddenly and unexpectedly stopped, the eye promptly began to move in the orbit to track the moving target. Initially, gaze velocity did not completely match target velocity, however; this finally occurred approximately 100 ms after the brake onset. The model did predict the prompt onset of eye-in-orbit motion after the brake, but it did not predict that gaze velocity would initially be only approximately 70% of target velocity. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that VOR gain can be dynamically modulated and, during sustained CEHT, it may assume a lower value. Consequently, during CEHT, a smaller-amplitude SP signal would be needed to cancel the lower-gain VOR. This reduction of the SP signal could account for the attenuated tracking response observed immediately after the brake. We found evidence for the dynamic modulation of VOR gain by noting differences in responses to the onset and offset of head rotation in trials of the visually enhanced VOR.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗

Science Fairs and Observational Science: A Case History from Earth Orbit

Having judged dozens of science fairs over the years, I am repeatedly disturbed by the ground rules under which students must prepare their entries. They are almost invariably required to follow the "scientific method," involving formulating a hypothesis, a test of the hypothesis, and then a project in which this test is carried out. As a research scientist for over 40 years, I consider this approach to science fairs fundamentally unsound. It is not only too restrictive, but actually avoids the most important (and difficult) part of scientific research: recognizing a scientific problem in the first place. A well-known example is one of the problems that, by his own account, stimulated Einstein's theory of special relativity: the obvious fact that when an electric current is induced in a conductor by a magnetic field , it makes no difference whether the field or the conductor is actually (so to speak) moving. There is in other words no such thing as absolute motion. Physics was transformed by Einstein's recognition of a problem. Most competent scientists can solve problems after they have been recognized and a hypothesis properly formulated, but the ability to find problems in the first Place is much rarer. Getting down to specifics, the "scientific method" under which almost all students must operate is actually the experimental method, involving controlled variables, one of which, ideally, is changed at a time. However, there is another type of science that can be called observational science. As it happens, almost all the space research I have carried out since 1959 has been this type, not experimental science.

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.↗

A test of the hypothesis that impact-induced fractures are preferred sites for later tectonic activity

Impact cratering has been an important process in the solar system. The cratering event is generally accompanied by faulting in adjacent terrain. Impact-induced faults are nearly ubiquitous over large areas on the terrestrial planets. The suggestion is made that these fault systems, particularly those associated with the largest impact features are preferred sites for later deformation in response to lithospheric stresses generated by other processes. The evidence is a perceived clustering of orientations of tectonic features either radial or concentric to the crater or basin in question. An opportunity exists to test this suggestion more directly on Earth. The terrestrial continents contain more than 100 known or probable impact craters, with associated geological structures mapped to varying levels of detail. Prime facie evidence for reactivation of crater-induced faults would be the occurrence of earthquakes on these faults in response to the intraplate stress field. Either an alignment of epicenters with mapped fault traces or fault plane solutions indicating slip on a plane approximately coincident with that inferred for a crater-induced fault would be sufficient to demonstrate such an association.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

L-phase variants of Agromyces ramosus

Earlier results suggested that Agromyces ramosus possibly might exist naturally in soil as a cell-wall-defective form. The purpose of the present study was to test this hypothesis by determining whether the laboratory-adapted strains of A. ramosus could be artificially induced into the L-phase and, if so, to examine some parameters affecting induction and the stability of the L-forms. The hypothesis was also tested by attempting to revert the laboratory L-phase strains by subjecting them to the technique originally used for isolation of the bacterial form from soil. It is shown that A. ramosus is easily induced into the L-phase by growing it on an agar media containing low levels of penicillin or glycine. The L-forms are found to be stable after initial contact with the inducing agent and to be unable to be reverted to the bacterial form. However, this lack of reversion does not completely negate the hypothesis that L-forms might occur in nature, because it is possible that L-forms existing in the natural state are less stable than those found in the laboratory where there is little selective pressure toward reversion.

Horwitz, A. H.↗

Analysis and prediction of severe storms environment

Using the special data set collected in Project SESAME (1979), an analysis and modeling efforts to test the hypothesis that a unique combination of terrain, boundary layer processes, and synoptic-scale circulations result in a preferred region of latent instability that determines the location of severe thunderstorm outbreaks are described. Because the relevant circulations are large scale, it is hypothesized that a model that contains the necessary physics will be able to predict the location of these severe storms at least 24 h in advance. Through detailed analysis of the SESAME data set and a series of numerical forecasts, the above hypothesis is being tested and it is hoped that quantitative understanding of the processes leading to the development of severe thunderstorms in the midwestern United States will be gained.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Navigation↗

Pre-Mission Input Requirements to Enable Successful Sample Collection by a Remote Field/EVA Team

This paper is intended to evaluate the sample collection process with respect to sample characterization and decision making. In some cases, it may be sufficient to know whether a given outcrop or hand sample is the same as or different from previous sampling localities or samples. In other cases, it may be important to have more in-depth characterization of the sample, such as basic composition, mineralogy, and petrology, in order to effectively identify the best sample. Contextual field observations, in situ/handheld analysis, and backroom evaluation may all play a role in understanding field lithologies and their importance for return. For example, whether a rock is a breccia or a clast-laden impact melt may be difficult based on a single sample, but becomes clear as exploration of a field site puts it into context. The FINESSE (Field Investigations to Enable Solar System Science and Exploration) team is a new activity focused on a science and exploration field based research program aimed at generating strategic knowledge in preparation for the human and robotic exploration of the Moon, near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and Phobos and Deimos. We used the FINESSE field excursion to the West Clearwater Lake Impact structure (WCIS) as an opportunity to test factors related to sampling decisions. In contract to other technology-driven NASA analog studies, The FINESSE WCIS activity is science-focused, and moreover, is sampling-focused, with the explicit intent to return the best samples for geochronology studies in the laboratory. This specific objective effectively reduces the number of variables in the goals of the field test and enables a more controlled investigation of the role of the crewmember in selecting samples. We formulated one hypothesis to test: that providing details regarding the analytical fate of the samples (e.g. geochronology, XRF/XRD, etc.) to the crew prior to their traverse will result in samples that are more likely to meet specific analytical objectives than samples collected in the absence of this premission information. We conducted three tests of this hypothesis. Our investigation was designed to document processes, tools and procedures for crew sampling of planetary targets. This is not meant to be a blind, controlled test of crew efficacy, but rather an effort to recognize the relevant variables that enter into sampling protocol and to develop recommendations for crew and backroom training in future endeavors. Methods: One of the primary FINESSE field deployment objectives was to collect impact melt rocks and impact melt-bearing breccias from a number of locations around the WCIS structure to enable high precision geochronology of the crater to be performed [1]. We conducted three tests at WCIS after two full days of team participation in field site activities, including using remote sensing data and geologic maps, hiking overland to become familiar with the terrain, and examining previously-collected samples from other islands. In addition, the team members shared their projects and techniques with the entire team. We chose our "crew members" as volunteers from the team, all of whom had had moderate training in geologic fieldwork and became familiar with the general field setting. The first two tests were short, focused tests of our hypothesis. Test A was to obtain hydrothermal vugs; Test B was to obtain impact melt and intrusive rock as well as the contact between the two to check for contact metamorphism and age differences. In both cases, the test director had prior knowledge of the site geology and had developed a study-specific objective for sampling prior to deployment. Prior to the field deployment, the crewmember was briefed on the sampling objective and the laboratory techniques that would be used on the samples. At the field sites (Fig. 2), the crewmember was given 30 minutes to survey a small section of outcrop (10-15 m) and acquire a suite of three samples. The crewmember talked through his process and the test director kept track of the timeline in verbal cues to the crewmember. At the conclusion, the team member conducting the scientific study appraised the samples and train of thought. Test C was a 90-minute EVA simulation using two crewmembers working out of line-of-sight in communication with a science backroom. The science objectives were determined by the science backroom team in advance using a Gigapan image of the outcrop (Fig. 1). The science team formulated hypotheses for the outcrop units and created sampling objectives for impact-melt lithologies; the science team turned these into a science plan, which they communicated to the crew in camp prior to crew deployment. As part of the science plan, the science team also discussed their sample needs in depth with the crewmembers, including laboratory methods, objectives, and samples sizes needed. During the deployment, the two crewmembers relayed real-time information to the science backroom by radio with no time delay. Both the crew and science team re-evaluated their hypotheses and science plans in real-time. Discussion: Upon evaluation, we found that the focused tests (Tests A and B) were successful in meeting their scientific objectives. The crewmember used their knowledge of how the samples were to be used in further study (technique, sample size, and scientific need) to focus on the sampling task. The crewmember was comfortable spending minimal time describing and mapping the outcrop. The crewmember used all available time to get a good sample. The larger test was unsuccessful in meeting the sampling objectives. When the crewmembers began describing the lithologies, it was quickly apparent that the lithologies were not as the backroom expected and had communicated to the crew. When the outcrop wasn't as expected, the crew members instinctively switched to field characterization mode, taking significant time to characterize and map the outcrop. One crew member admitted that he "kind of lost track" of the sampling strategy as he focused on the basic outcrop characterization. This is the logical first step in a field geology campaign, that a significant amount of time must be spent by the crew and backroom to understand the outcrop and its significance. Basic field characterization of an outcrop is a focused activity that takes significant time and training [2, 3]. Sampling of representational lithologies can be added to this activity for little cost [4]. However, we have shown that identification of unusual or specific samples for laboratory study also takes significant time and knowledge. We suggest that sampling of this type be considered a separate activity from field characterization, and that crewmembers be trained in sampling needs for different kinds of studies (representative lithologies vs. specialized samples) to acquire a mindset for sampling similar to field mapping. Sampling activities should be given a significant amount of specifically allocated time in scheduling EVA activities; and in the better case, that sampling be done as a second activity to a previously studied outcrop where both crew and backroom are comfortable with its context and characteristics. Our hypothesis posited that crewmember knowledge of how the samples would be used upon return would aid them in choosing relevant samples. Our testing bore this hypothesis out to some extent. We therefore recommend that crewmember training should include exposure to the laboratory techniques and analyses that will be used on the samples to foster this knowledge. There is also the potential for increasing crewmember contextual knowledge real-time in the field through the introduction of in situ geochemical technologies such as field portable XRF. The presence of field portable geochemical technology could enable the astronauts to interrogate the samples for K abundance real-time, ensuring they could collect valuable and dateable samples [5]. Though simulations such as these can teach us a fair bit about decision making processes and timeline building, one EVA participant noted that when he wasn't collecting "real" samples, he wasn't at his best. This effect suggests that higher-fidelity studies involving truly remote participants conducting actual scientific studies merit further attention to capture lessons for application to future crew situations.

sample collection↗

The case for antiparticles in the extragalactic cosmic radiation

The presence of an excess of low energy antiprotons in the primary cosmic radiation has given rise to a number of possible explanations. The possibility that these are extragalactic in origin is considered and it is shown that there are interesting implications for the bulk of the cosmic radiation at higher energies. In particular, it may be possible to account for a previously puzzling feature, a bump in the cosmic ray energy spectrum in the energy range 10(14) to 10(15) eV, with this primary extragalactic origin hypothesis. A method for testing this hypothesis experimentally is also described.

Stecker, F. W.↗