Characterizing Stress Roughness at Utah FORGE Through Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Growth During 16A Stage 3 Stimulation
In most geologic formations, the vertical gradient of the minimum horizontal stress (𝜎 h ) exceeds the hydrostatic gradient, often driving hydraulic fractures to propagate upward. However, observations indicate that the upward growth of real hydraulic fractures is less pronounced than theoretical predictions based on smoothly varying 𝜎 h fields. In fact, the layered structure of sedimentary rocks hinders fracture propagation across layers, partially explaining the limited height growth observed in practice (Zoback et al., 2022). While crystalline rocks lack the pervasive layered fabric of sedimentary formations, they still possess structural fabric formed over their geologic history, resulting in inherently "rough" in situ stress fields. Recent studies have identified another key factor: the "roughness" of in situ stress, characterized by temporal, relatively short-wavelength fluctuations superimposed on the overall stress gradient. This stress roughness leads to apparent toughness anisotropy, where the vertical toughness appears significantly larger than the horizontal toughness (P. Fu et al., 2019; Dontsov & Suarez-Rivera, 2021). Neglecting the effects of rock fabric and stress roughness can yield inaccurate predictions of hydraulic fracture geometry and growth rates at larger length scales.