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150 records · Page 9

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Multiple Tracer Gases to Quantify Vane Trailing Edge Flow Into Turbine Rim Seals

Abstract Overlapping features are commonly used as rim seals between stationary and rotating components in a turbine stage. These rim seals are used to prevent main gas path ingestion to the wheelspace cavity, which reduces the lifespan of critical engine components such as the turbine disk. In addition to the overlapping features, purge flow, diverted from the compressor, is injected into the rim cavity to act as an airflow sealing mechanism. Previous research identified that in addition to the purge flow in the rim cavity, cooling flow from the vane trailing edge (VTE) is ingested into the rim seal cavity carrying the potential to cool components in the wheelspace. These previous findings, however, were not able to distinctly separate purge from VTE cooling flows, which is the contribution of this paper based on uniquely using two different tracer gases. A one-stage test turbine operating at engine-relevant conditions and consisting of real engine hardware was used to validate and quantify the ingestion of the VTE flow by independently seeding the purge and VTE flows with two different tracer gases. Experimental results show the presence of VTE flow in the rim seal throughout all purge flowrates evaluated. Circumferential variation of VTE flow was also studied both experimentally and computationally using a computational fluid dynamics model. Results showed that ingested VTE flow can reduce the detrimental effect of hot gas ingestion particularly at higher purge flowrates.

Engineering↗

Key Elements of Auroral Substorm Development and their Relationship to Recent Observations of Detached Sub-Auroral Phenomena Including STEVE-like Emissions

Since Akasofu introduced the concept of the substorm in 1964, numerous refinements have been added to the phenomenological model of how auroral substorms develop. Here, we review several of the most important of these including; polar cap patches, intensifications of the Polar Activated Band (PAB) at the poleward edge of the bulge, the development of new arcs poleward, the generation of auroral streamers, the evolution of streamers into auroral torches and omega bands, the association of streamers with particle injection and BBF activity in the tail, and wedgelet-like magnetic perturbations on the ground. We also review the concept of “contact breakups” which are breakups that appear to be triggered by the arrival of streamer-like forms in the equatorward regions of the oval. Finally, we remind the community that the addition of detached sub-auroral emissions was made to the phenomenological picture of substorm develop in the late 1960s along with the concept of auroral streamers. Newer observations of detached sub-auroral (STEVE-like emissions) from the Viking/UVI and POLAR/VIS imagers are presented which confirm that they are east-west aligned bands of emission that separate away from the equatorward edge of the auroral oval in response to intensifications of the poleward edge of the bulge and subsequent streamer production. We propose a new model for the formation of detached sub-auroral (STEVE-like) emissions in which a non-linear growth of a SAPS-driven instability (e.g. like the shear-flow/ballooning instability) at the plasmapause results in the disruption of the boundary separating hot plasma sheet particle from the cold plasmaspheric plasma. It is proposed that the resulting intermixing of plasma populations leads to both the observed STEVE-like emissions and also provides a source of cold plasma on open drift paths that can feed the long-lived drainage plumes that have recently been discovered.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On FIRE mode in KSTAR

We report on the status of Fast Ion Regulated Enhancement (FIRE) mode experiments in the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research. This regime is being developed for high-performance, steady-state operation which features a stationary ion internal transport barrier, enabling a central ion temperature approaching 10 keV to be sustained for up to 50 s, without the need for delicate profile control and with no significant impurity accumulation. As its key novelty lies in the significant contribution of fast ions that stabilize core turbulence, the regime has been named FIRE mode. To achieve this regime, neutral beam injection is applied at moderate power levels near the L–H power threshold, while maintaining low plasma density to avoid the L–H transition. The scenario is typically established in diverted magnetic configurations. The core features of FIRE mode were investigated through power balance analysis and fluctuation measurements, revealing a clear transport bifurcation in the ion channel. At the plasma edge, FIRE mode occasionally exhibits I-mode characteristics, particularly in unfavorable magnetic null configurations with q 95 ∼ 4, including the presence of weakly coherent modes. In terms of MHD activity, sawtooth oscillations are observed but appear to be stabilized during the high-performance phase. Fast ion-driven Alfvénic eigenmodes (AEs), indicated by strong frequency chirping near 200 kHz, are also observed. Additionally, lower-frequency MHD activities, distinct from the fast ion-driven AEs, are present and have some influence on plasma performance. The enhancement of core confinement is primarily attributed to fast ion effects, which were evaluated with respect to dilution, alpha stabilization, and resonant interactions with turbulence using gyrokinetic analyses. Among these, the dilution effect was found to be the most dominant. The characteristics of FIRE mode were compared with those of other hot ion plasma scenarios, such as supershot and hot ion mode. While they share many similarities, FIRE mode is distinguished by the accessibility to conditions with T i ≈ T e , presence of I-mode edge features, and its long-duration sustainment. Predictive simulations of FIRE mode were performed using integrated transport modeling with TRIASSIC, employing the TGLF anomalous transport model. These simulations confirmed the critical role of fast ions in achieving this regime. The future prospect of FIRE mode for application in fusion reactors is discussed, with an emphasis on possibly extending the regime to higher density operation.

FIRE mode↗

Degradable Biocomposite Thermoplastic Polyurethanes

In this project, the team developed tough and degradable biocomposite thermoplastic polyurethanes (TPUs) by incorporating bacterial spores into TPUs as a biofunctional living filler. The team screened various bacteria and selected the Bacillus subtilis ATCC 6633 strain as the final candidate, primarily due to its genomic availability, sporulation ability and TPU assimilation activity. The heat-shock tolerance of ATCC 6633 spores was further improved through evolutionary engineering via Adaptive Laboratory Evolution (ALE), demonstrating a 17.7-fold enhanced germination efficiency post heat-shock treatment compared to the wild-type strain (WT). The team fabricated biocomposite TPUs by incorporating lyophilized powder of heat-shock tolerized (HST) spores during the hot melt extrusion (HME) of TPU at 135 °C. The baseline TPU used in this project is a commercially available soft-grade TPU (BCF45) manufactured by BASF. Colony forming unit (CFU) assays quantified that WT and HST spores in the TPU matrix retained approximately 20% and 100% survivability, respectively, after HME. Tensile testing demonstrated that the spores behaved as a polymer-reinforcing filler, positively affecting the overall tensile properties of the biocomposite TPU. For example, biocomposite TPU with WT and HST spores (BC TPU WT and BC TPU HST , respectively) exhibited up to 25% and 37% improved toughness, respectively, compared to TPU without spores. BC TPU HST showed remarkably improved disintegration in autoclaved compost (92% mass loss in 5 months), which simulated a microbially poor environment for TPU degradation. When compared to TPU without spores (44% mass loss in 5 months) the acceleration of degradation is marked. Respirometry confirmed that 72% of BC TPU HST was biomineralized into CO2 within 6 months, indicating that spores in the biocomposite TPU were germinated by utilizing nutrients in the autoclaved compost, facilitating TPU degradation at the end of the material's life. The team demonstrated the scale-up of biocomposite TPU fabrication using continuous extrusion and injection molding techniques. Processing conditions optimized in a lab-scale microcompounder were successfully transferred to a continuous extruder with a 30-fold increased throughput. Biocomposite TPUs prepared using these industry-relevant processes showed comparable toughness improvements to samples prepared in the lab-scale extruder. Excitingly, following compounding in the pilot-extruder the composite material could be injection molded, while retaining high spore viability and similar toughness improvements. The team also found that spores in biocomposite TPU served as antioxidants, preventing toughness decay during the recycled extrusion of BC TPU HST . Long-term storage tests over one year showed that the addition of spores had no negative effect on the longevity of the TPU. Furthermore, the team demonstrated the fabrication of spore-bearing biocomposite polymers with other polyesters such as PBAT, PLA, and PCL. We obtained promising preliminary data that showed overall toughness improvements for all polymers with spore addition. Finally, life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) were carried out, which indicated minimal additional cost of fabrication. Overall, a tough and degradable biocomposite thermoplastic was successfully developed through this project, with all tasks completed successfully, achieving >100% of the objectives.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning to Identify Geologic Factors Associated with Production in Geothermal Fields: A Case-Study Using 3D Geologic Data from Brady Geothermal Field and NMFk

In this paper, we present an analysis using unsupervised machine learning (ML) to identify the key geologic factors that contribute to the geothermal production in Brady geothermal field. Brady is a hydrothermal system in northwestern Nevada that supports both electricity production and direct use of hydrothermal fluids. Transmissive fuid-fow pathways are relatively rare in the subsurface, but are critical components of hydrothermal systems like Brady and many other types of fuid-fow systems in fractured rock. Here, we analyze geologic data with ML methods to unravel the local geologic controls on these pathways. The ML method, non-negative matrix factorization with k-means clustering (NMFk), is applied to a library of 14 3D geologic characteristics hypothesized to control hydrothermal circulation in the Brady geothermal field. Our results indicate that macro-scale faults and a local step-over in the fault system preferentially occur along production wells when compared to injection wells and non-productive wells. We infer that these are the key geologic characteristics that control the through-going hydrothermal transmission pathways at Brady. Our results demonstrate: (1) the specific geologic controls on the Brady hydrothermal system and (2) the efficacy of pairing ML techniques with 3D geologic characterization to enhance the understanding of subsurface processes. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using the GeoThermalCloud framework, which is part of SmartTensors (both are linked below).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗