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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Benefits Of Automated Construction And Energy Efficiency Measures In Modular Homes

This article builds on and adds to a Buildings XV publication that introduced the Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH) project. The TEAMH project sought to develop a scalable solution for producing modular homes with 20-50% energy savings and similar cost relative to site-fabricated single-family home construction. A key aspect of the project was assessing the potential for labor cost reductions through automation-assisted construction using light gauge steel (LGS). To quantify the advantages of this approach, side-by-side comparisons were made between traditional wood-framed construction and automation-assisted LGS construction. This demonstration involved constructing one wood-framed wall and several LGS test walls, accompanied by a time-and-motion study. The results indicated that automation assistance could decrease construction time and associated labor costs by as much as 46%. High-performance envelope technologies for exterior insulation and air sealing were evaluated to compare modular homes with site-built homes that meet the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). A key technology considered was vacuum insulation panels (VIPs) with fiberglass cores. Guarded hot box testing of multiple full-scale wall assemblies containing different combinations of exterior continuous insulation systems containing phenolic foam and VIPs. Testing on various full-scale wall assemblies revealed that, with LGS construction, cavity insulation had minimal impact on exterior wall performance. Omitting cavity insulation can reduce labor and material costs while streamlining manufacturing, as its installation is labor-intensive and not easily automated due to the need for precise placement around wiring and other internal components. Guarded hot box tests of multiple LGS test walls with foam and VIP-based exterior insulation systems achieved R-values of up to 31 hr-ft2-°F/Btu. Finally, building energy modeling of multiple modular home designs indicated that the upgraded envelope assemblies can yield heating energy savings of up to 50% and cooling energy savings of up to 30% compared to IECC 2018 standards.

Shrestha, Som [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000183993797)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware Model Predictive Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Hardware-and-Human-in-the-Loop Grid-interactive Efficient Building Equipment Performance Dataset

This project developed a publicly available, high-fidelity dataset about the interactions among humans, homes, and heat pumps supporting grid interactive efficient buildings to balance demand on the grid with comfort for occupants. Laboratory measurements and simulations of the hardware capture the second-scale electric power dynamics of heat pumps providing grid services like load shifting and load shedding. Field measurements, behavior tracking, and qualitative surveys of people in their homes over multiple years—including experimentally adjusting the heating and cooling system to provide grid services—to capture the reciprocal effect of human behavior on grid services, and grid services on human comfort. Taken together, these data capture the complete Hardware and Human in the loop system for residential heat pumps, reducing large uncertainties in simulation for design, and models for control of heat pumps, and grid-interactive buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Culture at the World’s Premier Multi-User Spaceport

NASA’s Agency-wide Safety Culture is implemented at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) using a unique strategy due an unparalleled approach in making human spaceflight history. Kennedy Space Center, the world’s premier multi-user spaceport, enables U.S. government and commercial space access, while providing the world a resource to allow the exploration of and the ability to work in space. A consistently healthy safety culture at KSC is imperative for mission success: desired achievements, protection of space flight hardware, and ultimately, the preservation of human life requires the support of a healthy safety culture. Emphasis on the NASA Agency-wide development of Safety Culture began with the conception of the NASA Agency Safety Culture Working Group. After the devastating loss of life and mission of the Space Shuttle Colombia, a broken safety culture was identified as an organizational cause by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Thus, the Agency Safety Culture Working Group was developed in 2009 to assess the status of the Agency’s Safety Culture, while addressing safety culture concerns at the NASA Center-level. A Five-factor model was developed to serve as the guiding principles for Safety Culture: 1) Reporting Culture, 2) Just Culture, 3) Flexible Culture, 4) Learning Culture, and 5) Engaged Culture. These five factors are included in the NASA Safety Culture logo, which was intentionally designed as a DNA double helix to prompt the permeation of safety into day-to-day work. KSC specifically implements the NASA Agency-wide Safety Culture principles in a tailored approach that is relevant to the diversity of work being performed. An emphasis is placed on the implementation to include safety at home, not exclusively at work. This emphasis is a KSC-specific element that has been intentionally added to promote a closed loop Safety Culture. To advertise the safety culture, various safety and health events are held throughout the calendar year, providing innovative speakers and engaging activities, while also promoting a wide range of curated safety initiatives. Development and continuous improvement of the KSC safety tracking database, allows for advanced tracking-to-closure, along with providing data sets used to identify areas of emphasis. Other safety initiatives rely solely on employee participation, such as the photo challenges; participants are encouraged to identify and capture themselves, coworkers, or family members participating in safe or healthy activities to share with others within the Center and at Agency levels. Fabrication of exclusive videos and graphics are utilized to advertise and inform employee of safety initiatives, upcoming safety events, and general dispersion of safety information. In addition, an anonymous Agency-wide Safety Culture Survey is advertised, administered, and analyzed at Kennedy Space Center, with the purpose of receiving basic feedback on Safety Culture perceptions to help prevent future incidents from occurring. Through these briefly identified means, and many other forms of employee engagement, Kennedy Space Center aims to maintain safety in the forefront, while creating an environment where everyone trusts that safety is a priority.

Larrin E. Moody↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Field Study of Nonintrusive Load Monitoring Devices and Implications for Load Disaggregation

Evaluations of nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) algorithms and technologies have mostly occurred in constrained, artificial environments. However, few field evaluations of NILM products have taken place in actual buildings under normal operating conditions. This paper describes a field evaluation of a state-of-the-art NILM product, tested in eight homes. The match rate metric—a technique recommended by a technical advisory group—was used to measure the NILM’s success in identifying specific loads and the accuracy of the energy consumption estimates. A performance assessment protocol was also developed to address common issues with NILM mislabeling and ground-truth comparisons that have not been sufficiently addressed in past evaluations. The NILM product’s estimates were compared to the submetered consumption of eight major appliances. Overall, the product had good performance in disaggregating the energy consumption of the electric water heaters, which included both electric resistance and heat-pump water heaters, but only a fair accuracy with refrigerators, dryers, and air conditioners. The performance was poor for cooking equipment, furnace fans, clothes washers, and dishwashers. Moreover, the product was often unable to detect major loads in homes. Typically, two or more appliances were not detected in a home. At least two dryers, furnace fans, and air conditioners went undetected across the eight homes. On the other hand, the dishwasher was detected in all homes where available or monitored. The key findings were qualitatively compared to those of past field evaluations. Potential areas for improvement in NILM product performance were determined along with areas where complementary technologies may be able to aid in load-disaggregation applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Evaluation of Drain Water Heat Recovery Exchangers for Heat Pump Water Heaters

Water heating constitutes approximately 18% of energy consumption and is the second largest energy expenses in United States homes. Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are energy efficient technologies with lower carbon footprints as compared to conventional water heating technologies, such as gas and electrical resistance heaters. The performance of water-source HPWHs can be improved by recovering heat from blackwater using drain heat recovery heat exchangers. Depending on water draw patterns of single family and multifamily residences, the operation and heat transfer performance of these heat exchangers are highly transient. This paper examines the thermo-hydraulic performance of a drain heat recovery heat exchanger during its transient and steady-state operations. The heat recovery performance of the exchanger was evaluated at different inlet temperatures and flow rates ranging from 9°C to 36°C and 0.03 kg/s to 0.28 kg/s, respectively. The obtained effectiveness varies from 45%–85% depending on the operating conditions. The test facility, steady-state and transient experimental procedures are reported in detail. Further, the effect of operating conditions on the effectiveness is discussed. The experimental approach and results of the study will provide insights into the transient operation of drain recovery heat exchangers as well as, guide sizing for various steady state conditions.

Krishnan, Easwaran↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effects of afternoon "siesta" naps on sleep, alertness, performance, and circadian rhythms in the elderly

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of a 90-minute afternoon nap regimen on nocturnal sleep, circadian rhythms, and evening alertness and performance levels in the healthy elderly. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nine healthy elderly subjects (4m, 5f, age range 74y-87y) each experienced both nap and no-nap conditions in two studies each lasting 17 days (14 at home, 3 in the laboratory). In the nap condition a 90-minute nap was enforced between 13:30 and 15:00 every day, in the no-nap condition daytime napping was prohibited, and activity encouraged in the 13:30-15:00 interval. The order of the two conditions was counterbalanced. PARTICIPANTS: N/A INTERVENTIONS: N/A MEASUREMENTS: Diary measures, pencil and paper alertness tests, and wrist actigraphy were used at home. In the 72 hour laboratory studies, these measures were augmented by polysomnographic sleep recording, continuous rectal temperature measurement, a daily evening single trial of a Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT), and computerized tests of mood, activation and performance efficiency. RESULTS: By the second week in the "at home" study, an average of 58 minutes of sleep was reported per siesta nap; in the laboratory, polysomnography confirmed an average of 57 minutes of sleep per nap. When nap and no-nap conditions were compared, mixed effects on nocturnal sleep were observed. Diary measures indicated no significant difference in nocturnal sleep duration, but a significant increase (of 38 mins.) in 24-hour Total Sleep Time (TST) when nocturnal sleeps and naps were added together (p<0.025). The laboratory study revealed a decrease of 2.4% in nocturnal sleep efficiency in the nap condition (p<0.025), a reduction of nocturnal Total Sleep Time (TST) by 48 mins. in the nap condition (p<0.001) which resulted primarily from significantly earlier waketimes (p<0.005), but no reliable effects on Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO), delta sleep measures, or percent stages 1 & 2. Unlike the diary study, the laboratory study yielded no overall increase in 24-hour TST consequent upon the siesta nap regimen. The only measure of evening alertness or performance to show an improvement was sleep latency in a single-trial evening MSLT (nap: 15.6 mins., no nap: 11.5 mins., p<0.005). No significant change in circadian rhythm parameters was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy seniors were able to adopt a napping regimen involving a 90-minute siesta nap each day between 13:30 and 15:00, achieving about one hour of actual sleep per nap. There were some negative consequences for nocturnal sleep in terms of reduced sleep efficiency and earlier waketimes, but also some positive consequences for objective evening performance and (in the diary study) 24-hour sleep totals. Subjective alertness measures and performance measures showed no reliable effects and circadian phase parameters appeared unchanged.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI-Driven Smart Community Control for Accelerating PV Adoption and Enhancing Grid Resilience

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has launched a Connected Communities program that supports projects that expand DOE's network of grid-interactive, efficient building communities nationwide. As an early pilot of Connected Communities, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners have developed and demonstrated a community-scale, hierarchical control solution to address the potential grid issues arising from high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as to improve grid reliability and resilience in this residential community. A field pilot study has been performed at an affordable housing development called the Basalt Vista Community, which was built for school teachers and other professionals in the local workforce and represents an autonomous energy grid with all-electric, energy-efficient homes. With no natural gas line in the community, this is the first all-electric net-zero community in rural Colorado. In the field pilot study, NREL has validated the performance of the hierarchical control solution, which consists of NREL's foresee home energy management systems (HEMS) and community aggregators, in increasing demand flexibility and self-consuming PV, reducing potential over-voltages, and supporting critical loads during emergency events. In this presentation, we will present the methodology, simulation and field pilot results, and lessons learned from the project.

all-electric community↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS1988

SARSCEST (human factors)

People interact with the processes and products of contemporary technology. Individuals are affected by these in various ways and individuals shape them. Such interactions come under the label 'human factors'. To expand the understanding of those to whom the term is relatively unfamiliar, its domain includes both an applied science and applications of knowledge. It means both research and development, with implications of research both for basic science and for development. It encompasses not only design and testing but also training and personnel requirements, even though some unwisely try to split these apart both by name and institutionally. The territory includes more than performance at work, though concentration on that aspect, epitomized in the derivation of the term ergonomics, has overshadowed human factors interest in interactions between technology and the home, health, safety, consumers, children and later life, the handicapped, sports and recreation education, and travel. Two aspects of technology considered most significant for work performance, systems and automation, and several approaches to these, are discussed.

Parsons, H. Mcilvaine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate: Preprint

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States' human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After over 40 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent and how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort.

Bigler, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reimagining Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning for New Manufactured Homes

Manufactured homes represent one of the most affordable paths to home ownership for American households, but minimum-efficiency equipment and poor-quality home installation can lead to excess energy use and high operating costs. Slipstream, with partners from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), Northwest Energy Works, and Washington State University, identified and tested manufactured home HVAC innovations targeted for new construction offering the most promising mix of improved energy performance and likelihood of industry uptake.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States's human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After nearly 50 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either of the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return to the home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent as to how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort. Key Words: PRA, space launches, human space program, ascent abort, spacecraft, launch vehicles

Bigler, Mark↗