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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Modeling of High-Energy Electron Scattering in Thick Samples Using Monte Carlo Techniques

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful tool for imaging biological samples but is typically limited by sample thickness, which is restricted to a few hundred nanometers depending on the electron energy. However, there is a growing need for imaging techniques capable of studying biological samples up to 10 µm in thickness while maintaining nanoscale resolution. This need motivates the use of mega-electron-volt scanning transmission electron microscopy (MeV-STEM), which leverages the high penetration power of MeV electrons to generate high-resolution images of thicker samples. In this study, we employ Monte Carlo simulations to model electron–sample interactions and explore the signal decay of imaging electrons through thick specimens. By incorporating material properties, interaction cross-sections for energy loss, and experimental parameters, we investigate the relationship between the incident and transmitted beam intensities. Key factors such as detector collection angle, convergence semi-angle, and the material properties of samples were analyzed. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between incident and transmitted beam intensities follows the Beer–Lambert law over thicknesses ranging from a few microns to several tens of microns, depending on material composition, electron energy, and collection angles. The linear depth of silicon dioxide reaches 3.9 µm at 3 MeV, about 6 times higher than that at 300 keV. Meanwhile, the linear depth of amorphous ice reaches 17.9 µm at 3 MeV, approximately 11.5 times higher than that at 300 keV. These findings are crucial for advancing the study of thick biological and semiconductor samples using MeV-STEM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recent Advances in Small Angle X-ray Scattering for Superlattice Study

Small-angle x-ray scattering is used for the structure determination of superlattice for its superior resolution, nondestructive nature, and high penetration power of x rays. With the advent of high brilliance x-ray sources and innovative computing algorithms, there have been notable advances in small angle x-ray scattering analysis of superlattices. High brilliance x-ray beams have made data analyses less model-dependent. Additionally, novel data acquisition systems are faster and more competitive than ever before, enabling a more accurate mapping of the superlattices' reciprocal space. Fast and high-throughput computing systems and algorithms also make possible advanced analysis methods, including iterative phasing algorithms, non-parameterized fitting of scattering data with molecular dynamics simulations, and the use of machine learning algorithms. As a result, solving nanoscale structures with high resolutions has become an attainable task. In this review, we highlight new developments in the field and introduce their applications for the analysis of nanoscale ordered structures, including nanoparticle supercrystals, nanoscale lithography patterns, and supramolecular self-assemblies. Particularly, we highlight the reciprocal space mapping techniques and the use of iterative phase retrieval algorithms. We also cover coherent-beam-based small angle x-ray scattering techniques such as ptychography and ptycho-tomography in view of the traditional small angle x-ray scattering perspective.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multimodal X-ray Microscopy: The Kinetics of Cu in CdTe Absorbers

The behavior of solar cells is very often limited by inhomogeneously distributed nanoscale defects. This is the case throughout the entire lifecycle of the solar cell, from the distribution of elements and defects during solar cell growth as well as the charge-collection and recombination during operation, to degradation and failure mechanisms due to impurity diffusion, crack formation, and irradiation- and heat-induced cell damage This has been known for a while in the field of crystalline silicon, but inhomogeneities are far more abundant in polycrystalline materials, and are the limiting factor in thin-film solar cells where grain sizes are often on the order of the diffusion length. We showed that the high penetration of hard X-rays combined with the high sensitivity to elemental distribution, structure, and spatial resolution offers a unique avenue for highly correlative studies at the nanoscale. We presented results on Cu-doped CdTe, where carrier collection is directly correlated to the kinetics of Cu inside the absorber and the particular Cu-phases at the ZnTe/CdTe interface. We complemented the results with modeling using PVRD-FASP and PyCDTS, where the X-ray beam induced profile can be reproduced by the equilibrium defect concentrations proposed by the solvers.

Bertoni, Mariana↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deploying Intra-hour Uncertainty Analysis Tools to ABB’s GridView - CRADA 445

The quickly-changing generation resource mix in the US grid, with large additions of variable resources, retirements of traditional thermal generation, distributed generation and demand response, are creating new challenges on the traditional operation of both the generation and transmission systems. The ability to perform intra-hour high fidelity production cost modeling (PCM) is needed to allow grid operators and grid planners to integrate high penetration (more than 50%) of variable energy resources, and to make prompt well informed decisions in market operations and planning. In the last decade, PNNL has developed several stand-alone tools to enable grid operators and planners to understand the impact of high variable generation on their systems. These tools have been used is studies such as: (1) Evaluation the benefits of WECC balancing authorities coordination under high variable generation penetration , (2) Benefits of Energy Imbalance Market in the North West Power Pool and (3) Duke Energy and NV Energy solar integration studies. ABB’s GridView is a widely used commercial PCM tool. It is the tool used by WECC and their stakeholders to develop the WECC PCM planning model on bi-annual basis. This proposal is focused on the integrating of PNNL intra-hour uncertainty analysis tools to GridView.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing solid-state reaction through microstrain: A case study on synthesis of LiCoO 2

Solid-state reaction has been widely adopted as a low-cost and scalable approach to synthesize inorganic materials for industrial applications. However, a special caution must be paid to carefully control the synthesis condition in order to obtain final products with desired structure and physical/chemical properties. In this work, LiCoO 2 was investigated as a model material to illustrate the complexity of the solid-state reaction, as well as its condition control. Taking the advantage of the high flux and high penetration capability of synchrotron X-ray source, in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction was deployed to investigate the structural evolution of materials during the solid-state reaction while ex-situ high-resolution X-ray diffraction was utilized to quantify the residual microstrains of LiCoO 2 . It is shown that the microstrain is a sensitive indicator to probe the completeness of the solid-state reactions, and that it also provides a more quantitative way to establish the structure-property relationship of materials. It can serve as a sensitive indicator for the rational design of synthesis process for functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated radiation transport modeling techniques for pencil beam computed tomography using gamma rays

Monte Carlo radiation transport modeling studies were performed for a compact, and high-resolution gamma-ray computed tomography system designed for imaging irradiated nuclear fuel. The system comprises a 60 Co source – chosen for its highly penetrating 1173 keV and 1332 keV gamma rays – a pair of high-aspect-ratio pencil beam collimators, and an inorganic scintillator detector. Here two acceleration methods are proposed to rapidly model a transmission type gamma-ray tomography system. The first, a variance reduction technique, is based on performing Monte Carlo simulations with a monodirectionally-biased source, sampled from a characteristic sub-volume of the full source volume. The second acceleration method is based on the deterministic calculations using the Beer–Lambert law and detector response characteristics. Comparison of simulations using acceleration approaches with analog simulations of the fully isotropic, full-volume equivalent, show that the Monte Carlo variance reduction technique gives quantitatively accurate predictions for large collimator aspect ratios while the deterministic calculations are semi-quantitative but converge close to the correct result as the collimator aspect ratio increases. As such, these techniques can be used to reduce the computational cost in generating simulated radiographs and tomographs by several orders of magnitude. Experimental validation efforts are currently underway and will be demonstrated in future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Energy Grid Storage (TEGS) Using Multi-Junction Photovoltaics (MPV) (Final Technical Report)

The project aimed to develop a thermal energy storage battery that converts electricity to heat and stores heat at ultra-high temperatures (>2000°C) in graphite blocks. The thermal battery discharge uses TPV cells that directly convert thermal energy to electrical energy without any moving parts. All components of this technology were successfully demonstrated at the laboratory scale in this project. Development of extremely low cost (< $20/kWh) grid level energy storage is a crucial necessity to reach high penetrations of renewables. The thermal battery technology developed in this project is expected to meet the cost targets that would enable full renewable penetration. The project focused on four key aspects of this technology: Converting electricity to ultra-high temperature heat: This was done through development of graphite Joule heaters. Major issues related to arcing, heater evaporation and deterioration due to long term oxidation were addressed to ensure lifetime exceeding the service lifetime of the battery. Converting ultra-high temperature heat back to electricity: This was done through development of beyond state-of-the-art TPV cells. We demonstrated energy conversion efficiency of >40% that is a world record and exceeds the average energy conversion efficiency of turbines in the USA. The findings are peer-reviewed and published in Nature, and received a wide media attention globally. Protecting the TPV cells to ensure lifetime: Deposition of volatilized material, such as sublimated material or particles, on the TPV cell could greatly reduce the efficiency and lifetime of the TPV cells by blocking their view to the heat source and causing cell overheating. In this project we developed and demonstrated an approach that reduces the deposition rate, ensuring long > 30 year life. Technoeconomic feasibility and commercialization: In collaboration with the project’s technical advisory board, we developed a technoeconomic model. The model shows that, at large scales (> 1GWh) the thermal battery technology is projected to reach a cost of energy stored below $10/kWh-e, with a cost per unit power < $0.5/W-e and a roundtrip efficiency of 50%. These results, along with the technical achievements in the project led to the creation of a startup company (i.e., Fourth Power) that is pursuing commercialization of the technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL Second Target Station Project: Biological & Environmental Science Workshop

Recent advances in neutron sources and instrumentation have opened up many new opportunities for the application of neutron scattering techniques in the biological and environmental sciences. Neutrons enable studies of the structure and dynamics of biological and environmental samples with a particular sensitivity to light elements, such as hydrogen, which is a key component of biological and environmental samples. Studies using neutrons are complementary to X-rays and have the unique advantage of being non-destructive and highly-penetrating. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s upcoming Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Second Target Station (STS) will provide high brightness cold neutron sources that significantly advance the scientific capabilities of neutron scattering instruments. The STS will advance our understanding of biological and environmental processes across spatial and temporal scales. The capabilities will enhance our ability to discover, design, and develop new materials essential for advanced sustainable technologies to address society’s most pressing needs. This report summarizes the discussions and recommendations from a joint workshop held by the STS Project and the Biological and Environmental Systems Science Directorate (BESSD) in June 2022. The purpose of the workshop was to explore science opportunities and capabilities related to biological and environmental systems that could be incorporated into both current and future STS instrument designs, as well as additional instruments at the SNS First Target Station (FTS) and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). With six breakout sessions, each with two invited plenary speakers from other institutions, the participants discussed a wide range of topics relevant to biological and environmental research. Based on the input from participants, a number of recommendations on instrumentation, sample environments, complementary multi-modal methods, data processing and analysis and sample deuteration are provided in the report. The participants also identified science opportunities that are emerging from the planned instrument capabilities at STS. Selected recommendations and science opportunities are listed in the Executive Summary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Analysing the Impact of Heat Pump Water Heaters on Distribution Systems Using GridLAB-D

With the constant increase in energy demand, finding ways to reduce peak load and the energy-costs factors has become more imperative. Domestic water heating showcases a significant opportunity for such applications. Water heating is the second-highest energy consumer in the residential sector across the United States. Electric Water Heaters (EWHs), in particular, constitute nearly 43% of American household water heating energy consumption. Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH), on the other hand, are an advanced water heating technology that has recently emerged in the United States residential market. The objectives of this work are to develop a HPWH model and build a case study that evaluates various penetration levels of HPWH in providing reduced peak load and cost-effective energy savings for both utilities and customers. The HPWH model was developed and integrated within the GridLAB-D simulation environment. The model behavior was then validated against a real HPWH unit at Portland State University (PSU). The case studies incorporated five HPWH penetration levels, ranging from 20% to 100%. In each case, EWHs were replaced with HPWHs. The results showed that a high penetration level of HPWHs can reduce the energy consumption on a distribution system to 38%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Study for a Carbon Capture Plant Retrofit to a Natural Gas-Fired Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Power Plant (2x2x1 Duct-Fired 758-MWe Facility with F Class Turbines)

A comprehensive front-end engineering design (FEED) study has been undertaken by Bechtel National Inc. (Bechtel) for locating a post-combustion capture and compression (PCC) unit at Panda’s Sherman natural gas–combined cycle (NGCC) power plant in Sherman, Texas. This is described in the unredacted FEED Study report (Attachment 1) with all supporting documents, numbering over 150. The Study Report is publicly available. Sizing of the PCC plant is based on treating an amount of flue gas equivalent to that produced when generating 420 MW, which is approximately 68% of the total flue gas emitted by the NGCC power plant operating at guarantee condition with duct burners off. A reduced power plant capacity factor was used for sizing the PCC plant because the gas turbines at the site often operate at reduced load due to the high penetration of renewable power in the ERCOT region. The cost of carbon capture is primarily driven by capital cost (and therefore is highly sensitive to capacity factor). Sizing the capture unit so that when used it is nearly always operating at full capacity is critical to the economic viability of the proposed investment.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fundamental benchmarking of the discharge properties of negative electrodes in lead acid batteries

The unprecedented scale of energy storage deployment needed to allow high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the electrical grid places significant economic cost and performance targets on battery technologies. Lead batteries, owing to their highly abundant and inexpensive raw materials, can be considered an important solution to grid storage as long as they achieve high material utilization, fast recharge rates, and long cycle life. To address the limitations in material utilization, we need to revisit the electrochemical processes during the discharge step and answer the following question: what are the fundamental limits of the discharge reaction? In this work we discuss how well-defined lead metal surfaces with nanometer scale roughness allow us to resolve the accessible discharge capacity for both faradaic and non-faradaic processes as a function of electrolyte concentration and in the presence of traditional additives. The direct connection between PbSO 4 layer morphology and discharge rates gives us important insights on the mechanism of discharge as related to the dissolution and passivation events. In conclusion, this work sets the stage for reimagining the design of lead batteries with implications to grid storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scatter and Blur Corrections for High-Energy X-Ray Radiography

High-energy X-ray radiography is useful as a highly penetrating method for imaging through dense materials. However, the primary modes of interaction of X-rays at these energies involve scattering or the production of secondary high-energy photons, which can interfere with the image. In addition, detector blurring, often resulting from scatter within the detector, can reduce image sharpness. Both of these processes can be mitigated with the use of convolution kernels, with the main challenge being that the proper kernel to use is not known, particularly for the scatter contribution. By radiographing solid slabs of uniform attenuation, we show that point spread functions and material-specific point scatter functions can be determined to significantly reduce the effect of detector blurring and object scatter. Constraining the fits to the slabs and uniform transmission within the slabs is sufficient to recover these functions. A functional form that reproduces the angular distribution of high-energy bremsstrahlung X-rays is presented for recovering point scatter functions. In conclusion, the method is applied to radiographs of objects from bremsstrahlung X-ray sources operating at 4- and 7.5-MV endpoint energies and a significant increase in sharpness is observed.

Blind deconvolution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

analog forecast↗