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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

GAHLS: an optimized graph analytics based high level synthesis framework

The urgent need for low latency, high-compute and low power on-board intelligence in autonomous systems, cyber-physical systems, robotics, edge computing, evolvable computing, and complex data science calls for determining the optimal amount and type of specialized hardware together with reconfigurability capabilities. With these goals in mind, we propose a novel comprehensive graph analytics based high level synthesis (GAHLS) framework that efficiently analyzes complex high level programs through a combined compiler-based approach and graph theoretic optimization and synthesizes them into message passing domain-specific accelerators. This GAHLS framework first constructs a compiler-assisted dependency graph (CaDG) from low level virtual machine (LLVM) intermediate representation (IR) of high level programs and converts it into a hardware friendly description representation. Next, the GAHLS framework performs a memory design space exploration while account for the identified computational properties from the CaDG and optimizing the system performance for higher bandwidth. The GAHLS framework also performs a robust optimization to identify the CaDG subgraphs with similar computational structures and aggregate them into intelligent processing clusters in order to optimize the usage of underlying hardware resources. Finally, the GAHLS framework synthesizes this compressed specialized CaDG into processing elements while optimizing the system performance and area metrics. Evaluations of the GAHLS framework on several real-life applications (e.g., deep learning, brain machine interfaces) demonstrate that it provides 14.27× performance improvements compared to state-of-the-art approaches such as LegUp 6.2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2017

RNAV STAR Procedural Adherence

Flight crews and air traffic controllers have reported many safety concerns regarding area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs). However, our information sources to quantify these issues are limited to subjective reporting and time consuming case-by-case investigations. This work is a preliminary study into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track procedural concepts and assess design functionality. We created a tool and analysis methods for gauging aircraft adherence as it relates to RNAV STARs. This information is vital for comprehensive understanding of how our air traffic behaves. In this exploratory archival study, we mined the performance of 24 major US airports over the preceding three years. Overlaying radar track data on top of RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We assessed STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateralfull-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed aircraft altitudes relative to the altitude restrictions and their occurrence rates. Full-lateral adherence was generally greater than Full-lateralfull-vertical, but the difference between the rates was not always consistent. Full-lateralfull-vertical adherence medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0 in KDEN (Denver) to 21 in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0 to nearly 100 for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systematic amounts in 1000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.

rnav↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable design of Ir-free trimetallic electrocatalysts for ammonia oxidation with graph neural networks

The electrochemical ammonia oxidation to dinitrogen as a means for energy and environmental applications is a key technology toward the realization of a sustainable nitrogen cycle. The state-of-the-art metal catalysts including Pt and its bimetallics with Ir show promising activity, albeit suffering from high overpotentials for appreciable current densities and the soaring price of precious metals. Herein, the immense design space of ternary Pt alloy nanostructures is explored by graph neural networks trained on ab initio data for concurrently predicting site reactivity, surface stability, and catalyst synthesizability descriptors. Among a few Ir-free candidates that emerge from the active learning workflow, Pt 3 Ru-M (M: Fe, Co, or Ni) alloys were successfully synthesized and experimentally verified to be more active toward ammonia oxidation than Pt, Pt 3 Ir, and Pt 3 Ru. More importantly, feature attribution analyses using the machine-learned representation of site motifs provide fundamental insights into chemical bonding at metal surfaces and shed light on design strategies for high-performance catalytic systems beyond the d-band center metric of binding sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing three generations of D-Wave quantum annealers for minor embedded combinatorial optimization problems

Abstract Quantum annealing (QA) is a novel type of analog computation that aims to use quantum mechanical fluctuations to search for optimal solutions of Ising problems. QA in the transverse Ising model, implemented on D-Wave quantum processing units, are available as cloud computing resources. In this study we report concise benchmarks across three generations of D-Wave quantum annealers, consisting of four different devices, for the NP-hard discrete combinatorial optimization problems unweighted maximum clique and unweighted maximum cut on random graphs. The Ising, or equivalently quadratic unconstrained binary optimization, formulation of these problems do not require auxiliary variables for order reduction, and their overall structure and weights are not highly variable, which makes these problems simple test cases to understand the sampling capability of current D-Wave quantum annealers. All-to-all minor embeddings of size 52, with relatively uniform chain lengths, are used for a direct comparison across the Chimera, Pegasus, and Zephyr device topologies. A grid-search over annealing times and the minor embedding chain strengths is performed in order to determine the level of reasonable performance for each device and problem type. Experiment metrics that are reported are approximation ratios for non-broken chain samples, chain break proportions, and time-to-solution for the maximum clique problem instances. How fairly the quantum annealers sample optimal maximum cliques, for instances which contain multiple maximum cliques, is quantified using entropy of the measured ground state distributions. The newest generation of quantum annealing hardware, which has a Zephyr hardware connectivity, performed the best overall with respect to approximation ratios and chain break frequencies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2017

Objective Assessment Method for RNAV STAR Adherence

Flight crews and air traffic controllers have reported many safety concerns regarding area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs). Specifically, optimized profile descents (OPDs). However, our information sources to quantify these issues are limited to subjective reporting and time consuming case-by-case investigations. This work is a preliminary study into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track procedural concepts and assess design specifications. We created a tool and analysis methods for gauging aircraft adherence as it relates to RNAV STARs. This information is vital for comprehensive understanding of how our air traffic behaves. In this study, we mined the performance of 24 major US airports over the preceding three years. Overlaying 4D radar track data onto RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We assessed STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateral/full-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed frequencies of aircraft altitudes relative to the altitude restrictions. Full-lateral adherence was always greater than Full-lateral/ full- vertical, as it is a subset, but the difference between the rates was not consistent. Full-lateral/full-vertical adherence medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0% in KDEN (Denver) to 21% in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0% to nearly 100% for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systematic amounts in 1,000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.

Stewart, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Patterson function as auto-hologram and graph enables the direct solution to the phase problem for coherently illuminated atomistic structures

Abstract The coherent Patterson function, derived from the coherent scattering intensities from N atoms, can be described as an auto-holographic image, i.e., the superposition of N -holographic images in which each atom serves as the source of a different reference wave, and as a mathematical graph of the unknown structure. These insights indicate that the unknown structure is significantly over-determined by the inherent information content in a Patterson function by a factor of ( N − 1)/2 (for non-degenerate structures), independent of dimensionality. However, we also show that the ability to resolve the distinct features in the Patterson function depends strongly on details of the experimental design (data range, sampling frequency, and dimensionality). This re-interpretation suggests that the coherent Patterson function provides a natural context for describing the information content in coherent scattering, reveals that there is no inherent phase problem for coherently illuminated pointwise structures, and enables the design of an algorithm which retrieves the structure directly from the Patterson function, without using error metric minimization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments [https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11872]. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2017

RNAV STAR Procedural Adherence

In this exploratory archival study we mined the performance of 24 major US airports area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs) over the preceding three years. Overlaying radar track data on top of RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We investigated STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateral/full-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed altitudes and their frequencies of occurrence for altitude restrictions. Full-lateral compliance was generally greater than Full-lateral/full-vertical, but the delta between the rates was not always consistent. Full-lateral/full-vertical usage medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0 in KDEN (Denver) to 21 in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0 to nearly 100 for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systemic amounts in 1000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This work is a preliminary investigation into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track how procedural concepts and design intervention function. In addition, this tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.

Stewart, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Network Theory: A Primer and Questions for Air Transportation Systems Applications

A new understanding (with potential applications to air transportation systems) has emerged in the past five years in the scientific field of networks. This development emerges in large part because we now have a new laboratory for developing theories about complex networks: The Internet. The premise of this new understanding is that most complex networks of interest, both of nature and of human contrivance, exhibit a fundamentally different behavior than thought for over two hundred years under classical graph theory. Classical theory held that networks exhibited random behavior, characterized by normal, (e.g., Gaussian or Poisson) degree distributions of the connectivity between nodes by links. The new understanding turns this idea on its head: networks of interest exhibit scale-free (or small world) degree distributions of connectivity, characterized by power law distributions. The implications of scale-free behavior for air transportation systems include the potential that some behaviors of complex system architectures might be analyzed through relatively simple approximations of local elements of the system. For air transportation applications, this presentation proposes a framework for constructing topologies (architectures) that represent the relationships between mobility, flight operations, aircraft requirements, and airspace capacity, and the related externalities in airspace procedures and architectures. The proposed architectures or topologies may serve as a framework for posing comparative and combinative analyses of performance, cost, security, environmental, and related metrics.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies: Preprint

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remain untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topologybased system that depends on neural network architecture for impact metrics classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, namely, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates both more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on the simulated response to contingencies for NREL-SIIP power system.

graph theory↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tidal Turbine Test, Downeast Turbines, July 12, 2021

Downeast Turbines tested a tidal turbine prototype with novel rotor/channel system and lateral effluent discharge apparatus (LEDA), during five days of testing in the flume at Alden Lab. Three days of testing (July 12-14, 2021) focused on turbine power metrics of torque and rpm, which were low, and then two days of follow-up testing (July 27-28, 2021) focused on LEDA performance metrics of pressure differential and rates of volumetric flow, with encouraging results. Next step is to to characterize, and even optimize, configurations of the LEDA, using 3D-CFD as a helpful tool, to refine its shape and explore its limits of performance as a means of effluent discharge that augments performance of an instream turbine. An improved configuration of the LEDA will be re-combined with the rotor/channel system of the turbine prototype, and ultimately, the rotor will be re-sized (enlarged), to better match the LEDA's performance capabilities in drawing through a rate of volumetric flow. This submission is Downeast Turbines' Post Access Report for the test event. It includes the files described here (next below), and several reference links. "Downeast TEAMER-Post-Access-Report...docx" is a document file containing the report. "Appendices A, B, and C" are included in this file, and so are "Figures #1-7." "Appendix D - Test Data Workbooks.zip" is an archive file containing all post access data (raw data tables, calculating tables, and graphs), presented in fourteen Excel workbooks as described in the report. "Appendix E - Post Access Figures.zip" is an archive file containing "Figures #8-52," of the report.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2024

Characterization of NUW-LHT-5m, A Lunar Highland Simulant

A new simulant of the lunar highlands regolith, NUW-LHT-5M, was designed by NASA and manufactured by Washington Mills. The simulant was based on Apollo 16 data and is a member of the NU-LHT-series. NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and Johnson Space Center have already purchased 3 metric tons of the simulant for advanced engineering work. In support of engineering uses of the simulant, we provided measurements of the simulant including: mineral abundance and composition, liberation, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), ferrous iron, carbon, sulfur, 60 element inductively coupled plasma (ICP), loss on ignition, particle size, both 2D and 3D particle shape, specific surface area, shear, cohesion, internal friction, helium pycnometry, minimum index density, tap density, magnetic susceptibility, cryogenic and high temperature permittivity, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and middle infra-red spectroscopy (MIR), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), viscosity, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), evolved gas analysis (EGA), and spark sintering. For the crystalline components the design of the simulant called for two rocks from the Stillwater Complex, Montana: 17.6 wt% norite, 37.7% anorthosite, and 4.7 wt% olivine from an unspecified commercial source. The other 40% of the simulant was a high calcium (An100), vesicular glass that Washington Mills made specifically for the simulant. Fabrication and quality control processes for both the glass and the simulant are described. Importantly, most of the graphs and tables presented herein provide values for both the new simulant and data for the older NASA mare simulant, JSC-1A. Finally, we discussed the current limitations of NUW-LT-5M and most other lunar regolith simulants to replicate the lunar material.

lunar regolith simulant↗
DOE OSTI2021

Graphical Optimization of Spectral Shift Reconstructions for Optical Backscatter Reflectometry

Optical backscatter reflectometry (OBR) is an interferometric technique that can be used to measure local changes in temperature and mechanical strain based on spectral analyses of backscattered light from a singlemode optical fiber. The technique uses Fourier analyses to resolve spectra resulting from reflections occurring over a discrete region along the fiber. These spectra are cross-correlated with reference spectra to calculate the relative spectral shifts between measurements. The maximum of the cross-correlated spectra—termed quality—is a metric that quantifies the degree of correlation between the two measurements. Recently, this quality metric was incorporated into an adaptive algorithm to (1) selectively vary the reference measurement until the quality exceeds a predefined threshold and (2) calculate incremental spectral shifts that can be summed to determine the spectral shift relative to the initial reference. Using a graphical (network) framework, this effort demonstrated the optimal reconstruction of distributed OBR measurements for all sensing locations using a maximum spanning tree (MST). By allowing the reference to vary as a function of both time and sensing location, the MST and other adaptive algorithms could resolve spectral shifts at some locations, even if others can no longer be resolved.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Analysis and Review of Measures and Relationships in Space Transportation Affordability

The affordability of transportation to or from space is of continued interest across numerous and diverse stakeholders in our aerospace industry. Such an important metric as affordability deserves a clear understanding among stakeholders about what is meant by affordability, costs, and related terms, as otherwise it's difficult to see where specific improvements are needed or where to target specific investments. As captured in the famous words of Lewis Carroll, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". As important as understanding a metric may be, with terms such as costs, prices, specific costs, average costs, marginal costs, etc., it is equally important to understand the relationship among these measures. In turn, these measures intermingle with caveats and factors that introduce more measures in need of a common understanding among stakeholders. These factors include flight rates, capability, and payload. This paper seeks to review the costs of space transportation systems and the relationships among the many factors involved in costs from the points of view of diverse decision makers. A decision maker may have an interest in acquiring a single launch considering the best price (along with other factors in their business case), or an interest in many launches over time. Alternately, a decision maker may have a specific interest in developing a space transportation system that will offer certain prices, or flight rate capability, or both, at a certain up-front cost. The question arises for the later, to reuse or to expend? As it is necessary in thinking about the future to clearly understand the past and the present, this paper will present data and graphics to assist stakeholders in visualizing trends and the current state of affairs in the launch industry. At all times, raw data will be referenced (or made available separately) alongside detailed explanations about the data, so as to avoid the confusion or misleading conclusions that occur more often than not with complex graphs or statements when such context is lacking.

affordability↗