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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

MatPhase: Material phase prediction for Li-ion Battery Reconstruction using Hierarchical Curriculum Learning

Li-ion Batteries (LIB), one of the most efficient energy storage devices, are used extensively in many industrial applications. These batteries consist of electrodes that are put together with heterogeneous material compositions. Imaging data of these battery electrodes obtained from X-ray tomography can explain the distribution of material constituents and allow reconstructions to study electron transport pathways. Such reconstructions of material constituents help quantify various associated properties of electrodes (e.g., volume-specific surface area, porosity) which determine the performance of batteries. These images often suffer from low image contrast between multiple material constituents, hence making it difficult for humans to distinguish and characterize these constituents through visual inspection. A minor error in detecting distributions of the material constituents can lead to magnified errors in the calculated parameters of material properties (e.g., porosity). We present MatPhase, a novel hierarchical curriculum learning technique to address the complex task of estimating material constituent distribution in battery electrodes. MatPhase comprises three modules: (i) an uncertainty-aware global model trained to yield inferences conditioned upon global knowledge of material distribution, (ii) a local model to capture relatively more fine-grained (local) distributional signals, (iii) an aggregator model to appropriately fuse the local and global effects towards obtaining the final distribution. On average, MatPhase improves prediction up to 8.5% relative to other sophisticated modeling pipelines and state-of-the-arts (SOTA) object detection models employed in the performance comparison.

Tabassum, Anika↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Superior Daily and Sub-Daily Precipitation Statistics for Intense and Long-Lived Storms in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Here, daily and sub-daily precipitation statistics are investigated from three global model ensembles: (a) global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) with typical horizontal resolutions of ~4 km, (b) “high”-resolution global models with typical resolutions of ~50 km and (c) “standard”-resolution global models with typical resolutions of ~100 km. Compared to two satellite rainfall datasets, GSRMs convincingly exhibit superior performance for statistics of heavier rain rate events including their diurnal cycle, spatial propagation and the amount contributed by intense precipitation, but not for statistics of weaker or shorter duration precipitation. Both high- and standard-resolution models fail to simulate the correct phase and amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation and the propagating convection in the Central US, but high-resolution models show relative improvement in the distribution of precipitation frequency and amount, especially for intense precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

FACETS Dynamical Downscaling Simulations over North America by the CAM-MPAS Variable-Resolution Model

Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets created by statistical or dynamical models is important for effectively communicating model projection and associated uncertainty to stakeholders and decision-makers. The Department of Energy FACETS project aims to foster such communication through development of metrics and their demonstration on a hierarchy of downscaled climate datasets to quantify aspects of climate change projections that are credible, particularly for supporting decisions related to the energy-water-land nexus. As a part of this effort, we have produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-MPAS). This global modeling framework is configured with variable-resolution meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America, as well as quasi-uniform resolution meshes across the globe. The variable-resolution configurations allow fine-scale features to be better resolved inside the refinement and interact with global-scale circulations. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240km and 120km) and variable-resolution (200-50km, 100-25km, and 46-12km) simulations that are designed to be compatible with other regional climate simulations that contribute to the hierarchy of downscaled climate datasets of the project. Furthermore, the dataset consists of simulations for both the present-day (1989-2010) and future (2079-2100) climate and post-processing of the model output has been coordinated across the project for consistency to facilitate common analysis across the hierarchy of datasets. Altogether, this CAM-MPAS model dataset provides a unique opportunity to assess the influence of resolutions and modeling framework on model credibility and climate change projection.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamical downscaling is a crucial process for providing regional climate information for broad uses, using coarser-resolution global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. The pool of global climate models (GCMs) providing the fields needed for dynamical downscaling has increased from the previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, with limited computational resources, the need for prioritizing the GCMs for subsequent downscaling studies remains. GCM selection for dynamical downscaling should focus on evaluating processes relevant for providing boundary conditions to the regional models and be inspired by regional uses such as the response of extremes to changes in the boundary conditions. This leads to the need for metrics representing processes of relevance to diverse stakeholders and subregions of a domain. Procedures to account for metric redundancy and the statistical distinguishability of GCM rankings are required. Further, procedures for selecting realizations from ensembles of top-performing GCM simulations can be used to span the range of climate change signals in multiple ways. As a result, distinct weighting of metrics and prioritization of particular realizations may depend on user needs. We provide high-level guidelines for such region-specific evaluations and address how CMIP7 might enable dynamical downscaling of a representative sample of high-quality models across representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of aerosol activation in the double-moment Unified Model and evaluation with CLARIFY measurements

Representing the number and mass of cloud and aerosol particles independently in a climate, weather prediction or air quality model is important in order to simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on radiation balance. Here we introduce the first configuration of the UK Met Office Unified Model in which both cloud and aerosol particles have “double-moment” representations with prognostic number and mass. The GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) aerosol microphysics scheme, already used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 (HadGEM3) climate configuration, is coupled to the Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) cloud microphysics scheme. We demonstrate the performance of the new configuration in high-resolution simulations of a case study defined from the CLARIFY aircraft campaign in 2017 near Ascension Island in the tropical southern Atlantic. We improve the physical basis of the activation scheme by representing the effect of existing cloud droplets on the activation of new aerosol, and we also discuss the effect of unresolved vertical velocities. We show that neglect of these two competing effects in previous studies led to compensating errors but realistic droplet concentrations. While these changes lead only to a modest improvement in model performance, they reinforce our confidence in the ability of the model microphysics code to simulate the aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions it was designed to represent. Capturing these interactions accurately is critical to simulating aerosol effects on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of UKESM aerosol size and composition using ATom measurements indicates missing marine aerosol formation mechanisms

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate through their interactions with radiation and clouds, yet large uncertainties remain in their simulation by global models. This study evaluates the United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1.1 (UKESM1.1) using global-scale aircraft observations from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, focusing on aerosol lifecycle processes in the remote marine atmosphere. We assess model performance in simulating aerosol precursor vapours, number size distributions, chemical composition, and environmental conditions. Several process improvements are tested, including sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation, ammonium nitrate scheme, methanesulfonic acid condensation, and low-temperature isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol formation. Model biases differ significantly between the upper troposphere (UT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL). In the UT, UKESM1.1 overestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles while underestimating accumulation mode, indicating insufficient growth. In the MBL, the model overestimates primary aerosols (e.g. seasalt) and precursor gases but underestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles, even after incorporating updated nucleation and ammonium nitrate scheme. The persistence of low aerosol number concentrations, despite overestimated precursors, suggests missing formation pathways likely involving other species such as iodine, amines, and organic vapours. These limitations result in an unbalanced cloud condensation nuclei budget that over-relies on primary emissions. Sensitivity tests reveal that model outputs are strongly influenced by dimethyl sulfide emissions and vapour condensation schemes. Our results highlight the need for future model development to prioritise mechanistic representation of currently missing aerosol sources, rather than relying on empirical tuning, to improve aerosol-climate interaction estimates.

He, Xu-Cheng [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom);↗
DOE OSTI2026

Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling

Accurate representation of urban properties and processes at higher resolutions in global modeling systems is essential for advancing our ability to capture the complexities of urban systems and informing effective resilience strategies. However, the prescription of coarse global-scale urban properties in most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) is limiting their potential for capturing urban signals as they advance toward kilometer-scale simulation capabilities. To bridge this gap in inadequate urban property representation and to advance urban-resolving Earth system modeling, this work integrates the newly-developed global 1 km-resolution facet-level urban surface property data set, U-Surf, into the land component of Community Earth System Model (CESM)—Community Terrestrial System Model (CTSM). The land-only CTSM simulations are validated against satellite measurements, ground-based urban weather stations, flux tower observations, and reanalysis data. Results demonstrate that the enhanced urban properties allow improved simulations of urban meteorology and surface energy fluxes compared to the default coarse-resolution categorical urban canopy parameters. Spatial scaling analysis reveals regime-dependent information loss during resolution aggregation, as well as substantial scale-dependent variations in urban surface energy flux representation. Furthermore, these findings have critical implications for coupled Earth system modeling when including the effect of land-atmosphere interaction. This work establishes a foundation for future urban-resolving kilometer-scale ESM development, which will enable systematic intra- and inter-city comparisons that inform urban adaptation strategies across diverse global urban environments.

Cheng, Yifan [University of Illinois Urbana-Champa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO2 injection, seasonality of SO2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO4) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO2, SO4, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO2, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m−2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO2 at height consistently increased SO2 and SO4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Corrigendum to “The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics” published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, 2023

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of -0.35?W?m-2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8?d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59?% decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23?% increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Ahsan, Hamza [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications (OMEGA)

This ocean model is the next generation version of the previous LANL developed MPAS-Ocean (Model for Prediction Across Scales) Ocean model. It is specifically designed to be used effectively on high performance computing, in particular GPU enabled architectures.

Van Roekel, Luke↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro‐biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models

Summary Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest–climate feedbacks for these carbon‐rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine‐root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade‐offs in fine‐root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground–belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground–belowground hydro‐nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 . The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictions of the glass transition temperature and viscosity of organic aerosols from volatility distributions

Abstract. Volatility and viscosity are important properties of organic aerosols (OA), affecting aerosol processes such as formation, evolution, and partitioning of OA. Volatility distributions of ambient OA particles have often been measured, while viscosity measurements are scarce. We have previously developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (Tg) of an organic compound containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Based on analysis of over 2400 organic compounds including oxygenated organic compounds, as well as nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organic compounds, we extend this method to include nitrogen- and sulfur-containing compounds based on elemental composition. In addition, parameterizations are developed to predict Tg as a function of volatility and the atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio based on a negative correlation between Tg and volatility. This prediction method of Tg is applied to ambient observations of volatility distributions at 11 field sites. The predicted Tg values of OA under dry conditions vary mainly from 290 to 339 K and the predicted viscosities are consistent with the results of ambient particle-phase-state measurements in the southeastern US and the Amazonian rain forest. Reducing the uncertainties in measured volatility distributions would improve predictions of viscosity, especially at low relative humidity. We also predict the Tg of OA components identified via positive matrix factorization of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. The predicted viscosity of oxidized OA is consistent with previously reported viscosity of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) derived from α-pinene, toluene, isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), and diesel fuel. Comparison of the predicted viscosity based on the observed volatility distributions with the viscosity simulated by a chemical transport model implies that missing low volatility compounds in a global model can lead to underestimation of OA viscosity at some sites. The relation between volatility and viscosity can be applied in the molecular corridor or volatility basis set approaches to improve OA simulations in chemical transport models by consideration of effects of particle viscosity in OA formation and evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Global Atmosphere‐aerosol Model ICON‐A‐HAM2.3–Initial Model Evaluation and Effects of Radiation Balance Tuning on Aerosol Optical Thickness

Abstract The Hamburg Aerosol Module version 2.3 (HAM2.3) from the ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3 global atmosphere‐aerosol model is coupled to the recently developed icosahedral nonhydrostatic ICON‐A (icon‐aes‐1.3.00) global atmosphere model to yield the new ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 atmosphere‐aerosol model. The ICON‐A and ECHAM6.3 host models use different dynamical cores, parameterizations of vertical mixing due to sub‐grid scale turbulence, and parameter settings for radiation balance tuning. Here, we study the role of the different host models for simulated aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and evaluate impacts of using HAM2.3 and the ECHAM6‐HAM2.3 two‐moment cloud microphysics scheme on several meteorological variables. Sensitivity runs show that a positive AOT bias over the subtropical oceans is remedied in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because of a different default setting of a parameter in the moist convection parameterization of the host models. The global mean AOT is biased low compared to MODIS satellite instrument retrievals in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3, but the bias is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 because negative AOT biases over the Amazon, the African rain forest, and the northern Indian Ocean are no longer compensated by high biases over the sub‐tropical oceans. ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 shows a moderate improvement with respect to AOT observations at AERONET sites. A multivariable bias score combining biases of several meteorological variables into a single number is larger in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 compared to standard ICON‐A and standard ECHAM6.3. In the tropics, this multivariable bias is of similar magnitude in ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 and in ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3. In the extra‐tropics, a smaller multivariable bias is found for ICON‐A‐HAM2.3 than for ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impacts of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Cumulus Parameterization on Subseasonal Prediction in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

Monthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observations to assess the roles of grid spacing and convective parameterization on the representation of tropical convection and midlatitude forecast skill. Specifically, the performance of a global convection-permitting model (CPM) configuration with a uniform 3-km mesh is compared to that of a global 15-km mesh with and without convective parameterization, and of a variable-resolution “channel” simulation using 3-km grid spacing only in the tropics with a scale-aware convection scheme. It is shown that global 3-km simulations produce realistic tropical precipitation statistics, except for an overall wet bias and delayed diurnal cycle. The channel simulation performs similarly, although with an unrealistically higher frequency of heavy rain. The 15-km simulations with and without cumulus schemes produce too much light and heavy tropical precipitation, respectively. Without convection parameterization, the 15-km global model produces unrealistically abundant, short-lived, and intense convection throughout the tropics. Only the global CPM configuration is able to capture eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation events, and the 15-km runs favor stationary or westward-propagating convection organized at the planetary scale. The global 3-km CPM exhibits the highest extratropical forecast skill aloft and at the surface, particularly during week 3 of each hindcast. Although more cases are needed to confirm these results, this study highlights many potential benefits of using global CPMs for subseasonal forecasting. Furthermore, results show that alternatives to global convection-permitting resolution—using coarser or spatially variable resolution—feature compromises that may reduce their predictive performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗