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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Update of Emission Factors of Greenhouse Gases and Criteria Air Pollutants, and Generation Efficiencies of the U.S. Electricity Generation Sector

The last decade has seen a steady evolution of the electricity generation sector. Fuels used for electricity generation have shifted from coal to cleaner energy sources such as natural gas and renewables including solar, wind, and other renewable sources. The share of U.S. electricity generated from coal decreased from 45% in 2010 to 24% in 2019, and is expected to decrease further to 13% by 2050. The conversion efficiency of electricity generation has also increased gradually for fuels such as natural gas due as less-efficient old generators are retired and more-efficient generators replace them. These changes in the electricity generation industry are likely to cause changes in the emissions from power generation units. Emission factors of greenhouse gases (GHG) including CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O, and criteria air pollutants (CAPs) including CO, NO x , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and SO x , from power plants are important parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with vehicle electrification, energy systems, and the production of materials and chemicals. The electricity generation technologies and associated emission factors in the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model need to be updated to reflect recent developments in the electricity generation sector. The most recent update of the electricity generation emission factors in GREET adopted a mixed method. The emission factors of CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , and SOx were estimated using a “topdown” approach by dividing the total emissions by the total net electricity generation, because emission data of these pollutants are readily available in the Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID). For other CAPs such as CO, VOC, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 , emission data were not reported in eGRID. A “bottom-up” method was used to estimate the emission factors for these pollutants by considering generic uncontrolled emission factors and the pollutant removal efficiencies of emission control technologies adopted in the electricity generation sector. However, the uncontrolled emission factors and the emission removal efficiencies of various emission control technologies considered in the 2012 study came from the legacy AP-42 emission factors, and may not reflect the actual emission performances of the electricity generation sector of today. To leverage new data that recently became available, especially emission data measured from continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS), we developed a new “top-down” approach to estimate efficiencies and GHG and CAP emission factors for electricity generation from combustion of individual fuel types by individual combustion technologies on the basis of power-generation data from U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) form EIA-923, and plant emission data from Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) dataset and National Emissions Inventory (NEI) dataset. Detailed discussion of the method and data used in this study can be found in Section 2.1. With this topdown approach, we aim to improve the estimates of energy efficiencies and emission factors for power plants using a more consistent methodology, and to update the emission factors, generation efficiencies, and generation technologies mixes in GREET to reflect recent technology advancements in the electricity generation sector.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Distributed parameter modeling for the control of flexible spacecraft

The use of FEMs of spacecraft structural dynamics is a common practice, but it has a number of shortcomings. Distributed-parameter models offer an alternative, but present both advantages and difficulties. First, the model order does not have to be reduced prior to the inclusion of control system dynamics. This advantage eliminates the risk involved with model 'order reduction'. Second, distributed parameter models inherently involve fewer parameters, thereby enabling more accurate parameter estimation using experimental data. Third, it is possible to include the damping in the basic model, thereby increasing the accuracy of the structural damping. The difficulty in generating distributed parameter models of complex spacecraft configurations has been greatly alleviated by the use of PDEMOD, BUNVIS-RG, or DISTEL. PDEMOD is being developed for simultaneously modeling structural dynamics and control system dynamics.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-flight polarization angle calibration for LiteBIRD: blind challenge and cosmological implications

We present a demonstration of the in-flight polarization angle calibration for the JAXA/ISAS second strategic large class mission, LiteBIRD, and estimate its impact on the measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio parameter, r, using simulated data. We generate a set of simulated sky maps with CMB and polarized foreground emission, and inject instrumental noise and polarization angle offsets to the 22 (partially overlapping) LiteBIRD frequency channels. Our in-flight angle calibration relies on nulling the EB cross correlation of the polarized signal in each channel. This calibration step has been carried out by two independent groups with a blind analysis, allowing an accuracy of the order of a few arc-minutes to be reached on the estimate of the angle offsets. Both the corrected and uncorrected multi-frequency maps are propagated through the foreground cleaning step, with the goal of computing clean CMB maps. We employ two component separation algorithms, the Bayesian-Separation of Components and Residuals Estimate Tool (B-SeCRET), and the Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC). We find that the recovered CMB maps obtained with algorithms that do not make any assumptions about the foreground properties, such as NILC, are only mildly affected by the angle miscalibration. However, polarization angle offsets strongly bias results obtained with the parametric fitting method. Once the miscalibration angles are corrected by EB nulling prior to the component separation, both component separation algorithms result in an unbiased estimation of the r parameter. While this work is motivated by the conceptual design study for LiteBIRD, its framework can be broadly applied to any CMB polarization experiment. In particular, the combination of simulation plus blind analysis provides a robust forecast by taking into account not only detector sensitivity but also systematic effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mixture density network estimation of continuous variable maximum likelihood using discrete training samples

Abstract Mixture density networks (MDNs) can be used to generate posterior density functions of model parameters $$\varvec{\theta }$$ θ given a set of observables $${\mathbf {x}}$$ x . In some applications, training data are available only for discrete values of a continuous parameter $$\varvec{\theta }$$ θ . In such situations, a number of performance-limiting issues arise which can result in biased estimates. We demonstrate the usage of MDNs for parameter estimation, discuss the origins of the biases, and propose a corrective method for each issue.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1987

A new linear quadratic optimal controller for the 34-meter high efficiency antenna position loop

The design of a new position loop controller for the 34-meter High Efficiency Deep Space antennas using linear quadratic (LQ) optimal control techniques is discussed. The LQ optimal control theory is reviewed, and model development and verification are discussed. Families of optimal gain vectors are generated by varying weight parameters. Performance specifications were used to select a final gain vector. Estimator dynamics were selected and the corresponding gain vectors were computed. Final estimator selection was based on position, commanded rate, and estimator error responses.

Nickerson, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Observations of hot DA white dwarfs

Observations of the hottest white dwarfs offer the opportunity to study the earliest stages of degenerate evolution. For those white dwarfs having pure or nearly pure hydrogen photosphere it is now possible with the current generation of high gravity model atmospheres to achieve substantial refinements in the estimation of atmospheric parameters, such as effective temperature, gravity and trace elements abundance. Such improvements can in turm lead to a clearer picture of DA cooling have a significant impact on the interpretation of a growing number of soft X-ray observations of hot DAs, and contribute to the understanding of He and trace metal abundance patterns in hot DAs.

Holberg, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Soundings to Improve Forecast Skill

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. Also included are the clear column radiances used to derive these products which are representative of the radiances AIRS would have seen if there were no clouds in the field of view. All products also have error estimates. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of 1K, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 90 percent effective cloud cover. The products are designed for data assimilation purposes for the improvement of numerical weather prediction, as well as for the study of climate and meteorological processes. With regard to data assimilation, one can use either the products themselves or the clear column radiances from which the products were derived. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates for retrieved quantities and clear column radiances, and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. The temperature profile error estimates are used to determine a case-by-case characteristic pressure pbest, down to which the profile is considered acceptable for data assimilation purposes. The characteristic pressure p(sub best) is determined by comparing the case dependent error estimate (delta)T(p) to the threshold values (Delta)T(p). The AIRS Version 5 data set provides error estimates of T(p) at all levels, and also profile dependent values of pbest based on use of a Standard profile dependent threshold (Delta)T(p). These Standard thresholds were designed as a compromise between optimal use for data assimilation purposes, which requires highest accuracy (tighter Quality Control), and climate purposes, which requires more spatial coverage (looser Quality Control). Subsequent research using Version 5 sounding and error estimates showed that tighter Quality Control performs better for data assimilation proposes, while looser Quality Control better spatial coverage) performs better for climate purposes. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degree latitude x 0.67 degree longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates (delta)T(p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process.

Susskind, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an integrated modeling framework for investigating 3D plasma responses in tokamak plasmas

As contemporary experimental tokamaks are pushed toward reactor-relevant operation, they provide essential testbeds for demonstrating and exploring ELM control strategies for deployment in future fusion pilot plants. Accurate predictions of full plasma responses are essential to guide and optimize these demonstrations. This paper introduces and validates an integrated modeling framework over a historical range of DIII-D operational space. The integrated modeling framework uses only scalar plasma parameters and optional reference boundary to self-consistently and flexibly scan through tokamak operational space and estimate the corresponding ELM-suppression relevant plasma response over 3D coil phase space. The framework generates tightly converged equilibria that satisfy a target set of plasma parameters (I p , β N , l i ), with kinetic profiles constrained by an EPED(NN)-computed pedestal and empirical core model. The plasma response of these modeled equilibria is calculated with GPEC. Validated against 55 distinct DIII-D equilibria, the framework consistently reproduces experimentally constrained equilibrium pressure, q, and other representative profiles using the time-varying information from only evolving scalar plasma parameters; plasma response validation is performed for the n=3 perturbation. In particular, the plasma response of a DIII-D discharge scanning q 95 in search of ELM suppression windows is quantitatively reproduced. By accurately reproducing experimental equilibria and plasma responses across wide parameter variation, the framework supports potential for synthetic parameter scans in key operational, stability, and plasma response dimensions to investigate RMP ELM-suppression experiments and inform predictive RMP scenario optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A two-step short-term probabilistic wind forecasting methodology based on predictive distribution optimization

With increasing wind penetrations into electric power systems, probabilistic wind forecasting becomes more critical to power system operations because of its capability of quantifying wind uncertainties. In this paper, a two-step probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is developed. First, a multimodel machine learning-based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework is adopted to generate deterministic forecasts. The deterministic forecast is assumed to be the mean value of the predictive distribution at each forecasting time stamp. Then, the optimal unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of the predictive distribution is estimated by a support vector regression surrogate model based on the deterministic forecasts. Lastly, probabilistic forecasts are generated from the predictive distribution. Numerical results of case studies at eight locations show that the developed two-step probabilistic forecasting methodology has improved the pinball loss metric score by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impact of Inverter-Interfaced Renewable Generation on Transient Stability at Varying Levels of Penetration: Preprint

The transient dynamics of conventional power systems are dominated by synchronous generators, and low-inertia inverters serve as the primary interface between power systems and renewable energy resources. Increasing penetration levels of inverter-interfaced generation are impacting the transient dynamics of power systems. In this paper, we attempt to quantify these impacts at different penetration levels. An elementary system including one inverter, one synchronous generator, and one load is studied under different parameter variations to assess the transient dynamics of the system. To quantify transient stability, the post-fault regions of attraction of the system are estimated by the sample-based basin stability approach with parallel computing technology. The simulation results suggest that different inverter penetration levels, inertias of the generator, inverter controller gains, and phase-locked loop controller gains have a clear impact on the regions of attraction as well as on the transient dynamics of proposed systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Modular Engine Noise Component Prediction System (MCP) Program Users' Guide

This is a user's manual for Modular Engine Noise Component Prediction System (MCP). This computer code allows the user to predict turbofan engine noise estimates. The program is based on an empirical procedure that has evolved over many years at The Boeing Company. The data used to develop the procedure include both full-scale engine data and small-scale model data, and include testing done by Boeing, by the engine manufacturers, and by NASA. In order to generate a noise estimate, the user specifies the appropriate engine properties (including both geometry and performance parameters), the microphone locations, the atmospheric conditions, and certain data processing options. The version of the program described here allows the user to predict three components: inlet-radiated fan noise, aft-radiated fan noise, and jet noise. MCP predicts one-third octave band noise levels over the frequency range of 50 to 10,000 Hertz. It also calculates overall sound pressure levels and certain subjective noise metrics (e.g., perceived noise levels).

Golub, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

LIMS Version 6 Level 3 Dataset

This report describes the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) Version 6 (V6) Level 3 data products and the assumptions used for their generation. A sequential estimation algorithm was used to obtain daily, zonal Fourier coefficients of the several parameters of the LIMS dataset for 216 days of 1978-79. The coefficients are available at up to 28 pressure levels and at every two degrees of latitude from 64 S to 84 N and at the synoptic time of 12 UT. Example plots were prepared and archived from the data at 10 hPa of January 1, 1979, to illustrate the overall coherence of the features obtained with the LIMS-retrieved parameters.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method

Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.

Liu, Yanfang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Tuning

This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.

Tame-Narvaez, KarlaMaria [Fermi National Accelerat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Increased Latent Generations on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE

Analyses of cross section sensitivity data from systems with fissile material allow analysts to associate an importance for each material, nuclide, reaction, and neutron energy by simulating real world criticality scenarios. Although criticality safety validation efforts can be guided by the cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty data generated for a particular system, these calculations can often be computationally expensive and sometimes cumbersome without proper guidance. The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package has several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup and continuous energy (CE) capabilities. The release of SCALE 6.3 has three different CE methods for generating cross section sensitivity data: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) the IFP method with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Although the CLUTCH method has additional parameters for generating sensitivity data files relative to the IFP method, all three methods use latent generations, which are the generations between an event (i.e., fission) and the assessment of importance based on the asymptotic population of progeny neutrons. Increasing the number of latent generations in a calculation leads to increased discrimination of the sensitivity coefficients but at the cost of the increased uncertainty associated with those generated values. Analysts must balance the accuracy of the sensitivity calculations and its uncertainty with the associated computational cost involved in generating the values. This paper discusses the impact of adjusting the latent generation parameter for a range of sensitivity values and how these changes compare with the direct perturbation values obtained from a change of ±0.5% Δ k in both benchmark and safety application models. Two benchmarks from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the MPC-32 dual purpose canister for spent nuclear fuel are used for analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗