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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian process based surrogate approach for the optimization of cylindrical targets

Simulating direct-drive inertial confinement experiments presents significant computational challenges, both due to the complexity of the codes required for such simulations and the substantial computational expense associated with target design studies. Machine learning models, and in particular, surrogate models, offer a solution by replacing simulation results with a simplified approximation. In this study, we apply surrogate modeling and optimization techniques that are well established in the existing literature to one-dimensional simulation data of a new cylindrical target design containing deuterium–tritium fuel. These models predict yields without the need for expensive simulations. We find that Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process surrogates enhances sampling efficiency in low-dimensional design spaces but becomes less efficient as dimensionality increases. Nonetheless, optimization routines within two-dimensional and five-dimensional design spaces can identify designs that maximize yield, while also aligning with established physical intuition. Optimization routines, which ignore constraints on hydrodynamic instability growth, are shown to lead to unstable designs in 2D, resulting in yield loss. However, routines that utilize 1D simulations and impose constraints on the in-flight aspect ratio converge on novel cylindrical target designs that are stable against hydrodynamic instability growth in 2D and achieve high yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Processes for Double Shell Inertial Confinement Fusion Target Design

Reliable, secure access to energy is a major focus for national security efforts. One potential route to such energy is through fusion reactions in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. Such experiments are carried out at facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in Livermore, California, where high powered lasers are used to compress a DT fuel-containing target to the necessary high temperature, high pressure conditions. These experiments are limited in number, which creates a heavy dependence on high fidelity predictive physics simulations and analysis performed “pre shot,” or before the experiment occurs. Many of these simulations in higher dimensions (2D and 3D) are computationally expensive, so finding optimal simulation-based designs presents its own challenges. In this work, we present our multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) for ICF double shell targets, where a 1D surrogate model is used to help find a 2D surrogate model, enabling us to find optimal targets in the higher fidelity (2D), while saving computational cost.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing dark matter isocurvature with primordial non-Gaussianity

Multiple fields can become dynamical during the inflationary epoch. We consider an example where a light field acquires isocurvature fluctuations during inflation and contributes to the dark matter abundance at late times. Interactions between the light field and the adiabatic sector contribute to mixed adiabatic-isocurvature non-Gaussianity (NG). We show the resulting form of NG has a different kinematic dependence than the `local shape' commonly considered, and highlight the parameter space where a dedicated search is expected to significantly improve the current Planck sensitivity. Here, we interpret our results in the context of the QCD axion and illustrate how the proposed NG searches can improve upon the existing searches for isocurvature power spectrum and bispectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-Gaussianity from explicit U(1)-breaking interactions

We investigate primordial non-Gaussianity (NG) arising from the explicit U(1) symmetry-breaking interactions during inflation involving a nearly massless axial component of a complex scalar field P. We analyze the induced NG parameter f NL under scenarios where the axial field functions as either a curvaton or cold dark matter (CDM). In the curvaton framework, there is a conventional contribution to the local NG of f NL ≃ -O(1). Additional positive local NG can result from either the self-interactions of axial field fluctuations, their interactions with a light radial partner, or kinetic mixing with the inflaton via U(1) symmetry-breaking terms. We identify parameter regions where the interactions lead to cancellations, suppressing the overall local NG to |f loc NL | ≲ O(0.1). In the CDM scenario, these interactions enhance the NG in the isocurvature fluctuations. Moreover, interactions between the axial field and another light scalar, such as a curvaton, can generate O(1) curvature NG signals and significant mixed curvature-isocurvature NGs that are within the reach of future experiments with σ(f loc NL ) ∼ 1. We also explore the role of a heavy radial field in generating oscillating correlation signals, noting that such signals can dominate the shape of the mixed adiabatic-isocurvature bispectrum. In certain cases, an oscillatory isocurvature bispectrum signal may be observable in the future, aiding in distinguishing between certain types of the U(1)-breaking self-interactions of the axial field.

axions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assembly bias and local Primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars

The analysis of the large-scale clustering of quasars (QSO) observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) represents a promising avenue for constraining local Primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), parameterized by f NL . The signal to be constrained is the scale-dependent bias induced in the 2-point clustering of the considered tracer sample. The resulting constraints on f NL , however, are fully degenerate with the local PNG bias parameter b ϕ , dependent on the assembly bias parameter p. Using IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations, we select a QSO sample reflecting the selection criteria and properties of DESI QSOs, and provide a robust prior for p, and thus for b ϕ , building on the findings of Fondi et al. 2024. We find a distribution with mean p̅ ≃ 1.4 with weak redshift dependence, stable to selection noise and consistent with the expected recent merger history typical of quasar-hosting halos. By comparing with the CAMELS simulations we demonstrate that this prior is robust to astrophysical assumptions and cosmic variance. Finally, applying this prior to the DESI DR1 dataset, we derive updated constraints on local PNG, obtaining f NL = -3.3±9.2.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2026

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modest set of simulations of local-type primordial non-Gaussianity in the DESI era

A measurement of a primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) signal through late- or early-Universe probes has the potential to transform our understanding of the physics of the primordial Universe. While large-scale structure observables in principle contain vital information, interpreting these measurements is challenging due to poorly understood astrophysical effects. Luckily, N-body simulations, such as the abacuspng set presented in this study, consisting of 9 boxes, each of size L box = 2 Gpc/h and particle mass of 1.01 × 10 10 M ⊙ /h, provide a viable path forward. As validation, we find good agreement between the simulations and our expectations from one-loop perturbation theory (PT) and the "separate universe" method for the matter bispectrum, matter power spectrum and the halo bias parameter associated with PNG, b φ . As a science application, here we investigate the link between halo assembly bias and b φ for halo properties known to play a vital role in accurately predicting galaxy clustering: concentration, shear (environment), and accretion rate. We find a strong response for all three parameters, suggesting that the connection between b φ and the assembly history of halos needs to be taken into account by future PNG analyses. We further perform the first study of the b φ parameter from fits to early DESI data of the luminous red galaxy (LRG) and quasistellar object (QSO) samples and comment on the effect on f NL constraints for the allowed galaxy-halo models (note that σ[f NL ]∝ $\frac{σ[b_φ]}{b_φ}$). We find that the error on f NL is 15, 8, 7 for the LRGs at z = 0.5 and z = 0.8 and QSOs at z = 1.4, respectively, suggesting that a thorough understanding of galaxy assembly bias is warranted so as to perform robust high-precision analysis of local-type PNG with future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗