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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Apollo to Artemis: How Processing ANGSA Core Samples 73001/2 Can Help to Prepare for Future Sample Return Missions to the Moon and Beyond.

Introduction: Apollo Sample 73001/2 is a ~71cm long double drive tube consisting of an upper part (73002) and a lower part (73001) that contains regolith collected near Lara Crater at the Apollo 17 site, Station 3. The double drive tube is believed to have penetrated a lunar landslide deposit that was transported from the slope of the South Massif into the Taurus-Littrow Valley [1]. As part of the ANGSA (Apollo Next Generation Sample Analyses) initiative, preparing a preliminary examination (PE) catalog of 73001/2 is a crucial first step for the early identification of material types such as rock fragments and potential stratigraphy within the core. Many new curation and scientific tools such as X-ray computed tomography (XCT) [3], multi-spectral imaging [4], and gas extraction manifold with piercing tool [5-7], have been applied to the ANGSA core to benefit curation strategy, PE efforts, sample allocation to the planetary science community, and ultimately help to prepare for future sample return missions like Artemis. 73001/2 Preliminary Examination and Processing: Sample 73002 was successfully opened and extruded in Nov. 2019 and fully dissected at the end of 2021. Sample 73001 (Fig. 1) was successfully extruded in March 2022 after careful planning before opening the Core Sample Vacuum Container (CSVC) that was holding the drive tube of 73001. XCT, as part of PE, was used to scan the bottom and top part of the 73001 core tube within the CSVC prior to opening it to 1) facilitate non-destructive, rapid detection of any contamination potentials due to piercing of the CSVC during gas extraction [7]; and 2) to aid in the Artemis sample tool development and provide data on the knife edge seal of the CSVC. This knowledge will help us connect the mechanics of the implemented design (i.e., XCT data) to the performance of the seal (i.e., data on the gas samples will tell us how well the seal preserved the volatile record of lunar samples). Both type of information will feed forward into Artemis tool and storage strategies for future samples. Results and Lessons learned: The XCT data of the CSVC and core tube within showed that the bottom Teflon cap was not pierced during gas extraction (Fig. 1c) and thus, the sample integrity remained guaranteed during piercing and subsequent gas extraction. However, the XCT scan of the top of the core (Fig. 1b) revealed that the drive tube was overfilled with lunar soil and the tool that keeps the soil constrained within the drive tube was not fully deployed. These preliminary data allowed us to implement the necessary steps to prevent loss of sample integrity, including any potential stratigraphy shifts during extrusion. Processing Apollo core 73001/2, creating an informative PE catalog, and applying new and refined tools and technologies for sample analyses are invaluable activities that will assist in circumventing any potential pitfalls, aid in the characterization of samples, and help in the assessment of how well any lunar material has been collected and preserved in the past. This will aid in designing future sample collections and curation procedures and help to prepare for future human exploration and sampling missions such as Artemis. References: [1] Schmitt H. (2017) Icarus 298, 2-33. [3] Zeigler et al. (2021) LPSC 52nd, #2632; [4] Sun et al. (2021), LPSC 52nd, #1789; [5] Parai et al. (2021), LPSC 52nd #2665; [6] Schild et al. (2021) LPSC 52nd #1888; [7] McDonald (2022) ESL 2022.

ANGSA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From NASA's EOS to ESO: Advancing Applications of the Future Atmosphere Observing (AOS) Mission

The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) is being designed to explore the fundamental questions of how interconnections between aerosols, clouds and precipitation impact our weather and climate, addressing real-world challenges to benefit society. A fundamental component of the AOS mission is ensuring that applications for economic and societal benefit are considered to the greatest extent possible in mission design. As a result, the AOS Applications Impact Team (AIT) was formed to address this objective. The overarching goal of the AIT is to help improve capacity for transitioning science to applications to make it possible to more quickly and effectively inform decisions that will directly benefit society. We seek to maximize AOS benefit to impact decisions through early engagement in the mission development phase in order to prepare stakeholders to apply observations as soon as AOS mission data become available. A critical component of preparing future users of AOS mission data is building on the successes of applications of NASA’s existing Earth Observing System (EOS), A-Train, and sub-orbital campaigns with the goal of advancing current mission applications activities and preparing for innovative AOS mission observations. NASA’s GPM mission forms a framework to enhance AOS precipitation applications while AOS health and air quality applications benefit from the heritage of CALIPSO and MODIS. Additionally, AOS will likely benefit from current and future missions such as TROPICS, MAIA, TEMPO, and PACE which launch before AOS. Additionally, current sub-orbital field campaigns, such as NASA IMPACTS and ACTIVATE, provide rich data sources to highlight future AOS capabilities. Engaging with existing missions and sub-orbital field campaigns helps to identify and understand data needs, gaps, and opportunities for current and future stakeholders, determine what data products are of highest value and use, and connect stakeholders with current mission data that can serve as AOS proxy data, among others. In this presentation, we provide an overview of AOS AIT activities, initiatives, and the AOS Applications Seminar Series to highlight how existing EOS, A-Train, and sub-orbital missions can play a critical role in advancing AOS applications prior to launch.

Emily B. Berndt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Baseline Single Aisle Aircraft for Future Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstrator Comparisons

The purpose of this study is to provide baseline single-aisle vehicles for future comparisons with NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) turbofan-powered Vision Systems. State-of-the-art single-aisle transports with varying design capacities of 100 to 150 passengers are modeled using NASA Ames Research Center’s General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) as well as GASPy. GASPy is a modernized Python-based version of GASP built on the OpenMDAO framework to allow for future, efficient gradient-based optimization and coupled airframe-propulsion design. In order to meet projected NASA Aeronautics goals for 2035, advanced aircraft technologies must be incorporated into these vehicle systems. Methodology to parametrically infuse baseline aircraft models with advanced technologies simulating improvements in aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion systems is detailed, along with the results of technology sensitivity studies. Comparison of the baseline and advanced configurations will allow for future analysis of the benefits of future hybrid and fully electric aircraft concepts in the EPFD project, where fuel consumption and emissions will be modeled and assessed. This study has been conducted under the EPFD project to establish benchmark turbofan models and demonstrate System Analysis capabilities in multi-disciplinary aircraft design, analysis, and optimization for advanced turbofan concepts.

Carl J. Recine↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Logistics Rates and Assumptions for Future Human Spaceflight Missions Beyond LEO

As NASA prepares for future human spaceflight missions with extended crew duration in destinations beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), the Agency has focused itself on understanding the drivers to sustainably support human life beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Future missions to deep space, the lunar surface, and eventually the Martian surface pose new challenges in ensuring the crew is sufficiently supplied with all necessary materials. To mitigate the risk of not delivering sufficient consumables and logistics for human spaceflight missions, NASA has examined past human space mission data and developed metabolic modeling to determine estimates for the crew consumption rates of fluids, solid consumables, and additional equipment needed. This paper is a compilation of guidelines, rates, and assumptions necessary to evaluate the logistics needs for future human exploration conceptual missions beyond LEO, providing a starting point and resource of information regarding usage rates and overall logistics supply planning for crewed exploration missions. Logistics represent all equipment and supplies not installed as part of the vehicle that are needed to support mission activities. Logistics can be further divided into specific categories, including consumables, maintenance items, spares, utilization, outfitting, as well as any packaging required. This paper will also provide use case examples of logistics needs to support human missions in deep space, including a conceptual lunar surface mission. The paper provides information necessary to calculate the mass and volume of known logistics for conceptual future human exploration missions beyond LEO. The assumptions in the paper are updated versions of previous assumptions made by the Agency and were derived from a number of sources, including International Space Station (ISS) historical usage and resupply rates, the Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document (BVAD) 2022, Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH) 2014, and data gathered from NASA human spaceflight programs and projects. The primary goal of the paper is to establish a set of consistent reference rates that multiple teams and groups can utilize to conduct logistics analysis and compare cases. This methodology is for initial estimates of conceptual human missions and does not take the place of detailed analysis for programs, nor does it provide requirements for programs.

Human Spaceflight↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Logistics Rates and Assumptions for Future Human Spaceflight Missions Beyond LEO

Human Spaceflight↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Characteristics of Future Climate Across the U.S.: Time Series Analysis of Climate Model Data by NASA POWER

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing capabilities to provide time series of the projected future evolution of surface quantities important to future energy production and use, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We present here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at locations throughout the continental United States. We show how both average and extreme values of the quantities will evolve from present-day to future climate conditions. We plan to provide these projections for users in the energy and sustainable energy communities.

Bradley M. Hegyi↗

NASA NTRS2024

ISS Technology Demonstrations for Future Spaceflight Medical Systems

Throughout the history of human spaceflight, crewmembers have experienced various in-flight medical conditions including illness and injury. Planned missions to the Moon and Mars will require capabilities to maintain the health of future space travelers. Mass, power, and volume available in the vehicles and habitats for these missions will be severely constrained; resupply of resources will be limited or non-existent, as will opportunities for evacuation to Earth. Furthermore, ground-based support will be hampered by communication latencies and blackouts. These vehicle and mission constraints will necessitate a medical system that has been efficiently planned, providing on-board procedural guidance in addition to a variety of medical devices and consumable resources. Medical capabilities required for the diagnosis and treatment of potential medical conditions during future spaceflight missions may include real-time health monitoring, medical imaging, and biomarker analyses ( e.g., blood or urine). Terrestrial medicine shares these needs, thus many of these medical capabilities could likely be satisfied by Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) devices and methodologies; however, in some cases the unique space environment and increased mission duration will drive the need to modify technologies and the way care is provided. NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element and Mars Campaign Office’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) are working together to decrease medical risk during exploration missions. Flight-tested medical diagnostic and treatment technologies are necessary to effectively manage medical conditions relevant to exploration missions while meeting vehicle constraints, integrating with medical decision-support tools, and enabling increasingly Earth-independent operations. Several projects have leveraged the ISS as a testbed for exploration, including 1) i n- situ blood analysis, 2) medical inventory, 3) intravenous fluid generation, and 4) autonomous medical procedure guidance. Management of several in-flight medical conditions, such as bacterial and viral infections and acute radiation syndrome, is dramatically improved with ability to assess blood cell populations, electrolytes, and metabolites. I n December 2020 and January 2021 ExMC performed an ISS technology demonstration (Tech Demo) of the HemoCue® WBC DIFF analyzer (HemoCue, Brea, CA), a COTS device that was modified to enable functionality in a spaceflight environment. This Tech Demo marked the first time that hematology measurements were successfully performed real-time in microgravity. Also modified and demonstrated was the reusable Handheld Electrolytes and Lab Technology for Humans (rHEALTH) ONE analyzer (rHEALTH, Bedford, MA), which uses flow cytometry and sheath-based hydrodynamic focusing methodologies. The rHEALTH ONE ISS Tech Demo in May 2022 demonstrated test results obtained in-flight matched those on the ground. NASA currently relies on crew self-reporting to manage and maintain medical inventory on ISS.The ability to maintain an accurate inventory becomes more critical during long duration missions since the crew will need to be increasingly autonomous in finding and utilizing medical items, including those scenarios when alternative treatments need to be considered due to limited or no resupply. HRP’s Medical Consumables Tracking (MCT) project was developed by ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), and demonstrated real-time tracking of medical supplies aboard the ISS between December 2016 and July 2018. The MCT system design utilized Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) technology to perform automated inventory and was installed in the Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) Resupply Stowage Rack (RSR). The challenge of limited shelf life, exacerbated by the lack of resupply opportunities, affects a plethora of medical system components including consumables, pharmaceuticals, and intravenous (IV) fluid. In 2010, ExMC funded ZIN Technologies, Inc. (Cleveland, OH), to develop the Intravenous Fluid Generation (IVGEN) system. IV fluids were successfully generated with IVGEN using the potable water supply on ISS during ISS Expedition 23. The XMIPT is in the process of developing a miniaturized version of the original IVGEN hardware for a future Tech Demo aboard the ISS. Current ISS medical operations rely heavily on preflight training and real-time remote guidance, both of which become impractical or impossible for exploration missions. The primary goal of the Autonomous Medical Officer Support (AMOS) Software Tech Demos on ISS was to confirm telemedical proof-of-concept for autonomous medical imaging in an operational setting. This novel software tool shifts emphasis from preflight training and real-time remote guidance to in-flight just-in-time instruction, a new and necessary paradigm for crew medical autonomy. AMOS introduces a novel, streamlined skill management concept for exploration missions featuring comprehensive training and guidance modules for ultrasound examinations using the ISS Ultrasound 2 (a modified GE Vivid-q™; General Electric HealthCare, Chicago, IL). With no prior crew training or remote guidance, two Tech Demos on the ISS (April 2020 and June 2022) resulted in high quality, clinically useful image sets. We will provide a review of historical, current, and planned medical devices and technologies considered for inclusion within future spaceflight medical systems and summarize hardware development activities and medical device tech demos conducted on the ISS.

Astronaut health and performance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anthropogenic Pathways for Modeling and Managing Future Arctic Fires

Wildland fires, including extreme fire events and seasons, are becoming more common in the boreal and Arctic regions due to climate change. Current climate modeling approaches do not include country- or region-specific socioeconomic pathways that specifically address the drivers of and potential mitigation techniques for wildland fires. Forest management, energy extraction, and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness as well as fuels treatment, can have a significant impact on future wildland fire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of anthropogenic factors and to align with previous work done on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), climate pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 were created for the states that compose the original Arctic Council countries: Canada, the United States, the Kingdom of Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and Finland as well as the Russian Federation (with whom the other seven countries withdrew participation from in May 2022 due to the invasion and ongoing war in Ukraine). High and low fire activity and risk pathways for all states comprising the Arctic were made, with expert ‘best guess’ pathways for each state created separately to represent the middle of road. The low activity and low fire risk pathways, named “We Got This”, assume active fire suppression via citizenry participation and official land management, efficient and extensive fuel treatments, and consistent and active wildland firefighting for each new ignition. The high activity and high fire risk pathways, named “Let It Burn”, assume nearly the opposite, due to lack of government and community response and no action on climate change drivers that increase wildland fire risk. The ‘best guess’ pathway, named “The Fire Will Come”, indicates that some countries are currently on the pathway for less fire compared to other Arctic and Boreal states but not a ‘no-fire’ future. For example, in the Nordic countries, human ignition sources from tourism, timber and energy extraction, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In North America, these same risks will apply but also may see an expansion of agriculture that increases the likelihood of open burning in croplands. Drier fuel condition and extreme heat events due to climate change create favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic and boreal lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra fires in addition to forest fires in hard-to-reach locations that are more difficult to coordinate and execute wildland firefighting. To move the future Arctic fire SSPs forward, several short-term and long-term actions must be completed. Certain data needs are required, like a harmonized pan-Arctic and pan-boreal fuels geospatial product, while also a need to refine and socialize current definitions of fire seasons and fire management – including developing an open-source system to track and share innovation, mitigation, and adaptation strategies across Arctic states.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

future mission needs↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Electrifying Future of Air Transportation

This presentation discusses the NASA Aeronautics Advanced Air Transport Technology Project’s perspective on electric, hybrid-electric, and related distributed propulsion technologies for future generations of large transport aircraft. Recent system studies commissioned by NASA and other organizations have identified these technologies as promising approaches to dramatically reduce aircraft fuel consumption, noise, and emissions. These technologies are part of the Project’s overall research portfolio aimed toward developing ultra-efficient commercial aircraft in conjunction with alternative low carbon propulsion and energy systems to enable safe and sustainable future growth in global aviation. It is anticipated that both room temperature and cryogenic electrical technologies will be needed in the future. Room temperature electrical systems are likely to impact aviation in the near term by making their way onto smaller aircraft and by augmenting traditional propulsion systems on larger aircraft, while cryogenic technologies will likely be needed in the far term to deliver the several tens of megawatts of propulsive power needed for large transport aircraft. The presentation outlines the opportunities and challenges for electric propulsion technologies for commercial aviation, and describes some of the related concepts and enabling technologies that are currently being developed.

Future↗

NASA NTRS1994

Assessment of Image Sensor Technology for Future NASA Missions

An assessment of solid-state UV/visible image sensor technology for future NASA missions is presented. The paper will attempt to summarize the state of the art in image sensor technology in the United States, Canada, Japan, and Europe. The state of the art and future trends will be compared to a forecast of future NASA needs in scientific image sensors for planetary exploration, earth science, astrophysics, and spacecraft systems such as star trackers and optical communications.

solid-state↗

NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Airspace Operations: UTM-Inspired Air Traffic Management

We need to prepare airspace system to accommodate diversity, density and complexity of future operations. Current system will reach its peak due to use of old technology and human-in-the-loop nature to accommodate new entrants. Talk will focus on how an ATM system can be made ready to meet the future needs. Author will discuss a number of lessons based on Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) could be leveraged to prepare for future.

future airspace operations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interactions Between Climate and Species Drive Future Forest Carbon and Water Balances

Global change is altering forest carbon and water balances; however, the extent to which tree species shape ecosystem‐scale responses to climate, particularly in biodiverse forests, remains unclear. To address this, we simulated the effects of an envelope of future climate conditions on watershed carbon and water balances and quantified the contributions of tree species based on their xylem anatomy. We accomplished this by incorporating species‐level transpiration calculations into a landscape‐scale ecosystem process model. Our revised model linked the effects of forest succession, species composition, and climate change on water and carbon. Calibration of forest water fluxes using sap flux measurements and catchment water balances captured variability in species transpiration and interannual ET in biodiverse, humid temperate forest catchments in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA. Across wet and dry future climate projections, ET increased, and streamflow and net carbon uptake decreased, particularly under a scenario of increasing drought. Despite accounting for just 30% of current biomass, diffuse‐porous tree species were the main driver of carbon and water flux responses now and in the future, thus intensifying the increase in ET and decline in streamflow. As diffuse‐porous biomass continues to increase, these forests will be increasingly sensitive to drought, amplifying losses of carbon sequestration and freshwater delivery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗