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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic Model for Moisture-Controlled CO 2 Sorption

The understanding of the sorption/desorption kinetics is essential for practical applications of moisture-controlled CO 2 sorption. We introduce an analytic model of the kinetics of moisture-controlled CO 2 sorption and its interpretation in two limiting cases. In one case, chemical reaction kinetics on pore surfaces dominates, in the other case, diffusive transport through the sorbent defines the kinetics. Here, we show that reaction kinetics, which is dominant in the first case, can be expressed as a linear combination of 1st and 2nd order kinetics in agreement with the static isotherm equation derived and validated in a previous paper. The interior transport kinetics can be described by non-linear diffusion equations. By combining all carbon species into a single equation, we can eliminate — in certain limits — the source terms associated with chemical reactions. In this case, the governing equation is ∂θ/∂t = –∇ · (–D eff ∇ θ ). For a sorbent in a form of a flat sheet or a membrane, one can maintain the same functional form of a diffusion equation by introducing a generalized effective diffusivity D M that combines contributions from both surface chemical reaction kinetics and interior diffusive transport kinetics. Experimental data of transient CO 2 flux in a preconditioned commercial anion exchange membrane fit well to the 1st order model as long as very dry states are avoided, validating the theory. The observed DM for a preconditioned commercial anion exchange membrane ranges from 6.6× 10 -14 to 7.1× 10 -14 m 2 s -1 at 35°C. These small values compared to typical ionic diffusivities imply a very slow kinetics, which will be the largest issue that needs to be addressed for practical application. The collected transient CO 2 flux data are used to predict the magnitude of a continuous CO 2 pumping flux in an active membrane that transports CO 2 against a CO 2 concentration gradient. The pumped CO 2 flux is supported by water flux due to a water concentration gradient.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1978

Radiative transfer calculated from a Markov chain formalism

The theory of Markov chains is used to formulate the radiative transport problem in a general way by modeling the successive interactions of a photon as a stochastic process. Under the minimal requirement that the stochastic process is a Markov chain, the determination of the diffuse reflection or transmission from a scattering atmosphere is equivalent to the solution of a system of linear equations. This treatment is mathematically equivalent to, and thus has many of the advantages of, Monte Carlo methods, but can be considerably more rapid than Monte Carlo algorithms for numerical calculations in particular applications. We have verified the speed and accuracy of this formalism for the standard problem of finding the intensity of scattered light from a homogeneous plane-parallel atmosphere with an arbitrary phase function for scattering. Accurate results over a wide range of parameters were obtained with computation times comparable to those of a standard 'doubling' routine. The generality of this formalism thus allows fast, direct solutions to problems that were previously soluble only by Monte Carlo methods. Some comparisons are made with respect to integral equation methods.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A parametric heat transfer study for cryogenic ball bearings in SSME HPOTP

A numerical modeling is to examine the effects of coolant convective heat transfer coefficient and frictional heating on the local temperature characteristics of a ball element in Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP) bearing. The present modeling uses a control-volume based, finite-difference method to solve the non-dimensionalized heat conduction equation in spherical coordinate system. The dimensionless temperature is found as a function of Biot number, heat flux ratio between the two race contacts, and location in the ball. The current results show that, for a given cooling capability, the ball temperature generally increases almost linearly with the heat input from the race-contacts. This increase is always very high at one of the two contacts. An increase in heat transfer coefficient generally reduces the ball temperature and alleviates the temperature gradient, except for the regions very close to the race contacts. For a 10-fold increase of heat transfer coefficient, temperature decrease is 35 percent for the average over entire ball, and 10 percent at the inner-race contact. The corresponding change of temperature gradient displays opposing trends between the regions immediately adjacent to the contacts and the remaining portion of the ball. The average temperature gradient in the vicinity of both contacts increases approximately 70 to 100 percent. A higher temperature gradient produces excessive thermal stress locally which may be detrimental to the material integrity. This, however, is the only unfavorable issue for an increase of heat transfer coefficient.

Chyu, Mingking K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Communication Channel Density Estimating Generative Adversarial Network

Autoencoder-based communication systems use neural network channel models to backwardly propagate message reconstruction error gradients across an approximation of the physical communication channel. In this work, we develop and test a new generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture for the purpose of training a stochastic channel approximating neural network. In previous research, investigators have focused on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channels and/or simplified Rayleigh fading channels, both of which are linear and have well defined analytic solutions. Given that training a neural network is computationally expensive, channel approximation networks— and more generally the autoencoder systems—should be evaluated in communication environments that are traditionally difficult. To that end, our investigation focuses on channels that contain a combination of non-linear amplifier distortion, pulse shape filtering, intersymbol interference, frequency-dependent group delay, multipath, and non-Gaussian statistics. Each of our models are trained without any prior knowledge of the channel. We show that the trained models have learned to generalize over an arbitrary amplifier drive level and constellation alphabet. We demonstrate the versatility of our GAN architecture by comparing the marginal probability density function of several channel simulations with that of their corresponding neural network approximations

Smith, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Regional Analysis of Cloudy Mean Spherical Albedo over the Marine Stratocumulus Region and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. This study examines the relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used in this study is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.50 x 2.50 latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakleys (1991) theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.(1990) findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 in) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al. theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional analysis of cloudy mean spherical albedo over the marine stratocumulus region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. The relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction are studied in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution, and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakley's theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.'s findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 m) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al's theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Stability analysis of double-peaked proton distribution functions in the solar wind

Twelve proton velocity distribution functions as measured for different solar wind speeds by the plasma analyzer at the Helios spacecraft are modeled analytically by a superposition of two bi-Maxwellians. The stability of these distributions is investigated by solving the linear dispersion equation for parallel propagation of both left- and right-hand polarized modes. Due to the temperature anisotropy of the main proton component the presence of the resonant left-hand ion cyclotron instability is found to be typical for high-speed streams and is independent of an ion beam. The results indicate that the ratio of the beam density to total particle density and the beam drift velocity are generally close to the threshold values necessary to drive a highly unstable nonresonant right-hand mode. This instability is found for one proton distribution and is a consequence of the beam particles. It is concluded that both the ion cyclotron instability and the ion beam instability act as a regulating mechanism on the shape of solar wind double humped proton distribution functions.

Leubner, Manfred P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Probabilistic and deterministic aspects of linear estimation in geodesy

Recent advances in observational techniques related to geodetic work (VLBI, laser ranging) make it imperative that more consideration should be given to modeling problems. Uncertainties in the effect of atmospheric refraction, polar motion and precession-nutation parameters, cannot be dispensed with in the context of centimeter level geodesy. Even physical processes that have generally been previously altogether neglected (station motions) must now be taken into consideration. The problem of modeling functions of time or space, or at least their values at observation points (epochs) is explored. When the nature of the function to be modeled is unknown. The need to include a limited number of terms and to a priori decide upon a specific form may result in a representation which fails to sufficiently approximate the unknown function. An alternative approach of increasing application is the modeling of unknown functions as stochastic processes.

Dermanis, A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Woven ceramic matrix composite surrogate model based on physics-informed recurrent neural network

A recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear constitutive behavior of woven ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage at multiple length scales. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the multiscale generalized method of cells (MSGMC) approach coupled with a matrix damage model. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of woven CMCs based on constituent response at the micro-, meso-, and macroscales. The multiscale repeating unit cell is loaded under non-monotonic conditions including multiple load / unload cycles and tension / compression. The fiber volume fraction as well as the intra- and intertow void volume fractions are also varied in the generation of training data. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input strain sequence and fiber and void volume fractions, the resulting stress versus strain response while satisfying physical constraints such as positive semi-definiteness of the tangent stiffness matrix and linear elastic unloading. Further, the trained surrogate model effectively matches the stress versus strain response and successfully predicts the tangent modulus throughout the loading regime. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex architectures, nonlinear multiaxial material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2006

Reentry-Vehicle Shape Optimization Using a Cartesian Adjoint Method and CAD Geometry

A DJOINT solutions of the governing flow equations are becoming increasingly important for the development of efficient analysis and optimization algorithms. A well-known use of the adjoint method is gradient-based shape. Given an objective function that defines some measure of performance, such as the lift and drag functionals, its gradient is computed at a cost that is essentially independent of the number of design variables (e.g., geometric parameters that control the shape). Classic aerodynamic applications of gradient-based optimization include the design of cruise configurations for transonic and supersonic flow, as well as the design of high-lift systems. are perhaps the most promising approach for addressing the issues of flow solution automation for aerodynamic design problems. In these methods, the discretization of the wetted surface is decoupled from that of the volume mesh. This not only enables fast and robust mesh generation for geometry of arbitrary complexity, but also facilitates access to geometry modeling and manipulation using parametric computer-aided design (CAD). In previous work on Cartesian adjoint solvers, Melvin et al. developed an adjoint formulation for the TRANAIR code, which is based on the full-potential equation with viscous corrections. More recently, Dadone and Grossman presented an adjoint formulation for the two-dimensional Euler equations using a ghost-cell method to enforce the wall boundary conditions. In Refs. 18 and 19, we presented an accurate and efficient algorithm for the solution of the adjoint Euler equations discretized on Cartesian meshes with embedded, cut-cell boundaries. Novel aspects of the algorithm were the computation of surface shape sensitivities for triangulations based on parametric-CAD models and the linearization of the coupling between the surface triangulation and the cut-cells. The accuracy of the gradient computation was verified using several three-dimensional test cases, which included design variables such as the free stream parameters and the planform shape of an isolated wing. The objective of the present work is to extend our adjoint formulation to problems involving general shape changes. Factors under consideration include the computation of mesh sensitivities that provide a reliable approximation of the objective function gradient, as well as the computation of surface shape sensitivities based on a direct-CAD interface. We present detailed gradient verification studies and then focus on a shape optimization problem for an Apollo-like reentry vehicle. The goal of the optimization is to enhance the lift-to-drag ratio of the capsule by modifying the shape of its heat-shield in conjunction with a center-of-gravity (c.g.) offset. This multipoint and multi-objective optimization problem is used to demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the Cartesian adjoint method for addressing the issues of complex aerodynamic design.

Nemec, Marian↗
NASA NTRS1994

TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better agreement with altimetric and ground truth data, than previously proposed tidal models. Relative to the 'default' tidal corrections provided with the TOPEX/POSEIDON GDR, the inverse solution reduces crossover difference variances significantly (approximately 20-30%), even though only a small number of free parameters (approximately equal to 1000) are actually fit to the crossover data.

Egbert, Gary D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Finite state modeling of aeroelastic systems

A general theory of finite state modeling of aerodynamic loads on thin airfoils and lifting surfaces performing completely arbitrary, small, time-dependent motions in an airstream is developed and presented. The nature of the behavior of the unsteady airloads in the frequency domain is explained, using as raw materials any of the unsteady linearized theories that have been mechanized for simple harmonic oscillations. Each desired aerodynamic transfer function is approximated by means of an appropriate Pade approximant, that is, a rational function of finite degree polynomials in the Laplace transform variable. The modeling technique is applied to several two dimensional and three dimensional airfoils. Circular, elliptic, rectangular and tapered planforms are considered as examples. Identical functions are also obtained for control surfaces for two and three dimensional airfoils.

Vepa, R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Optimum design of structures subject to general periodic loads

A simplified version of Icerman's problem regarding the design of structures subject to a single harmonic load is discussed. The nature of the restrictive conditions that must be placed on the design space in order to ensure an analytic optimum are discussed in detail. Icerman's problem is then extended to include multiple forcing functions with different driving frequencies. And the conditions that now must be placed upon the design space to ensure an analytic optimum are again discussed. An important finding is that all solutions to the optimality condition (analytic stationary design) are local optima, but the global optimum may well be non-analytic. The more general problem of distributing the fixed mass of a linear elastic structure subject to general periodic loads in order to minimize some measure of the steady state deflection is also considered. This response is explicitly expressed in terms of Green's functional and the abstract operators defining the structure. The optimality criterion is derived by differentiating the response with respect to the design parameters. The theory is applicable to finite element as well as distributed parameter models.

Reiss, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1983

Stability and Interaction of Coherent Structure in Supersonic Reactive Wakes

A theoretical formulation and analysis is presented for a study of the stability and interaction of coherent structure in reacting free shear layers. The physical problem under investigation is a premixed hydrogen-oxygen reacting shear layer in the wake of a thin flat plate. The coherent structure is modeled as a periodic disturbance and its stability is determined by the application of linearized hydrodynamic stability theory which results in a generalized eigenvalue problem for reactive flows. Detailed stability analysis of the reactive wake for neutral, symmetrical and antisymmetrical disturbance is presented. Reactive stability criteria is shown to be quite different from classical non-reactive stability. The interaction between the mean flow, coherent structure and fine-scale turbulence is theoretically formulated using the von-Kaman integral technique. Both time-averaging and conditional phase averaging are necessary to separate the three types of motion. The resulting integro-differential equations can then be solved subject to initial conditions with appropriate shape functions. In the laminar flow transition region of interest, the spatial interaction between the mean motion and coherent structure is calculated for both non-reactive and reactive conditions and compared with experimental data wherever available. The fine-scale turbulent motion determined by the application of integral analysis to the fluctuation equations. Since at present this turbulence model is still untested, turbulence is modeled in the interaction problem by a simple algebraic eddy viscosity model. The applicability of the integral turbulence model formulated here is studied parametrically by integrating these equations for the simple case of self-similar mean motion with assumed shape functions. The effect of the motion of the coherent structure is studied and very good agreement is obtained with previous experimental and theoretical works for non-reactive flow. For the reactive case, lack of experimental data made direct comparison difficult. It was determined that the growth rate of the disturbance amplitude is lower for reactive case. The results indicate that the reactive flow stability is in qualitative agreement with experimental observation.

Menon, Suresh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Superposed periodic kink and pulse solutions of coupled nonlinear equations

Here, we present novel previously unexplored periodic solutions, expressed in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions, for both a coupled Φ 4 model and a coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS) model. Remarkably, these solutions can be elegantly reformulated as a linear combination of periodic kinks and antikinks, or as a combination of two periodic kinks or two periodic pulse solutions. However, we also find that for $m=0$ and a specific value of the periodicity (or at a nonzero value of the elliptic modulus $m$) this superposition does not hold. These results demonstrate that the notion of superposed solutions extends to the coupled nonlinear equations as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone Depletion: A Multi-Model Comparison

The effect of the Antarctic ozone hole extends downwards from the stratosphere, with clear signatures in surface weather patterns including a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Several recent studies have used coupled climate models to investigate the impact of these changes on Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), notably motivated by the observed cooling from the late 1970s. Here we examine the robustness of these model results through comparison of both previously published and new simulations. We focus on the calculation of ‘climate response functions' (CRFs), transient responses to an instantaneous step-change in ozone concentrations. The CRF for most models consists of a rapid cooling of SST, followed by a slower warming trend. However, inter-model comparison reveals large uncertainties, such that even the sign of the impact of ozone depletion on historical SST, when reconstructed from the CRF, remains unconstrained. Comparison of these CRFs with SST responses to a hypothetical step-change in the SAM, inferred through lagged linear regression, shows broadly similar results. Causes of uncertainty are explored by examining relationships between model climatologies and their CRFs. The inter-model spread in CRFs can be reproduced by varying a single subgrid-scale mixing parameter within a single model. Antarctic sea-ice CRFs are also calculated: these do not generally exhibit the two-time-scale behavior of SST, suggesting a complex relationship between the two. Finally, by constraining model climatology-response relationships with observational values, we conclude that ozone depletion in unlikely to have been the primary driver of the observed SST cooling trend.

Climate response functions (CRF)↗