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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI1994

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bat Impact Minimization Technology: An Improved Bat Deterrent for the Full Swept Rotor Area of Any Wind Turbine

The growth in the number of wind turbine generators has led to a significant number of fatal interactions with bat species. The need to reduce the number of bat fatalities while minimizing power losses is the greatest conservation challenge for wind energy development in parts of the country, according to the American Wind Wildlife Institute. Technological solutions that can also allow turbines to operate normally would generate the maximum electricity and avoid financial losses. Bats use echolocation to perceive their surroundings by listening to features of echoes from their high frequency vocal signals reflecting from targets. In this project, Frontier Wind built on previous research demonstrating that ultrasonic noise can mask echolocation and act as a repellent or deterrent to bat flight activity. Whereas the initial study only broadcast ultrasonic transmissions from the center of the turbine, the Strike Free™ system developed for this project extended the ultrasonic coverage to the entire area swept by the turbine blades. Frontier Wind designed the system components and their integration and then tested them in the lab and in the field at Pattern Energy’s Hatchet Ridge Wind Facility near Redding, California. The researchers used an acoustic model to determine the optimal configuration of transmitters along the blades to provide sound transmission coverage across the turbine rotor swept area volume. The custom ultrasonic transmitters were designed specifically for the echolocation frequencies of the four main bat species that have been shown to have died at Hatchet Ridge, although the transmitters can be customized for different frequencies as needed in other geographic locations. The Strike Free™ system shows promise for reducing bat fatalities, and the path to commercialization requires further testing to validate and optimize performance in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Probabilistic Autoencoder for Type Ia Supernova Spectral Time Series

We construct a physically parameterized probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) to learn the intrinsic diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from a sparse set of spectral time series. The PAE is a two-stage generative model, composed of an autoencoder that is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. We demonstrate that the PAE learns a low-dimensional latent space that captures the nonlinear range of features that exists within the population and can accurately model the spectral evolution of SNe Ia across the full range of wavelength and observation times directly from the data. By introducing a correlation penalty term and multistage training setup alongside our physically parameterized network, we show that intrinsic and extrinsic modes of variability can be separated during training, removing the need for the additional models to perform magnitude standardization. We then use our PAE in a number of downstream tasks on SNe Ia for increasingly precise cosmological analyses, including the automatic detection of SN outliers, the generation of samples consistent with the data distribution, and solving the inverse problem in the presence of noisy and incomplete data to constrain cosmological distance measurements. We find that the optimal number of intrinsic model parameters appears to be three, in line with previous studies, and show that we can standardize our test sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.091 ± 0.010 mag, which corresponds to 0.074 ± 0.010 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Cyber-Attack Detection for PV Farms via Time-Frequency Domain Features

The internetworking of grid-connected power electronics converters (PECs) in photovoltaic (PV) farms has inevitably expanded the cyber-attack surfaces. Here this paper presents a comprehensive study on cyber-attack detection and diagnosis for PEC-enabled PV farms via single waveform sensor to distinguish between normal conditions, open-circuit faults, short-circuit faults, and cyber-attacks. To our knowledge, this has not been attempted before. Firstly, we propose frequency-domain magnitude-based residuals to identify short-circuit faults and a time-domain mean current vector-based feature to distinguish open-circuit faults from other threats. These features can fully reflect the specific physical characteristics of PV farms during threat duration. Secondly, unlike micro phasor measurement units (µPMU) and raw electric waveform-based methods, the proposed innovative features can address novel cyber-attacks that are excluded from the training process. Thirdly, an online hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed using the OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator has verified the effectiveness. The monitoring system runs in real-time while using HIL as an operational solar farm and a National Instruments (NI) data acquisition card as the electric waveform sensor at the point of coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical simulation of involute-plate research reactor flow behavior using RANS, LES and DNS

This paper investigates the flow behavior of involute-plate research reactors by performing Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulation (RANS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of the channel flow between fuel plates. By modeling turbulence with different numerical approaches, this study provides data with three levels of fidelity. For the RANS simulation, three widely used turbulence models, i.e., k-ε, k-ω, Reynolds Stress Turbulence model (RST) are applied by using the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM +. For LES and DNS, the open-source CFD code, Nek5000, is used given its outstanding scalability on High Performance Computer (HPC) and high-order technique. The results from RANS simulations are compared with that from LES and DNS for benchmarking. Both macroscale parameters and turbulence statistics, such as velocity magnitude, lateral velocity and turbulence kinetic energy, are presented and analyzed. The results from RANS simulation achieve good agreement with LES and DNS on velocity and turbulence kinetic energy prediction. The RST turbulence model predicts the most similar flow pattern of lateral velocity as compared to LES and DNS. The Lambda-2 (λ2) criterion with a reasonable threshold is used to demonstrate the instantaneous vortices distribution in the involute channel from both LES and DNS calculation. The DNS simulation captures more detailed turbulence especially near the corner, which explains the discrepancy between LES and DNS results near the corner. The normalized RMS error are defined and calculated to assess the performance of those turbulence models. The RST model captures the anisotropic feature of turbulence, which enable it to outperform other turbulence models for predicting the flow behavior in an involute channel. Although some discrepancies are found between LES and DNS results in the corner, the overall deviations between LES and DNS are found to be small. In conclusion, given that the computational cost of DNS calculation is an order of magnitude higher, using LES data for benchmarking RANS model is a cost-effective approach.

DNS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systems and methods for architecture-independent binary code analysis

Binaries configured for execution within respective computing environments may be disassembled into architecture-specific intermediate (AIL) representations. The AIL representations may be converted into canonical intermediate language (CIL) representations. The CIL representations may comprise normalized, architecture-independent code configured to characterize functionality of respective components of a binary (e.g., respective functions or the like). Feature vectors may be extracted from the CIL representations. The feature vectors may be used to identify components of respective binaries, assign security classifications to the binaries, and/or the like.

Haile, Jedediah T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Translation of "Contribution a l'etude du diagramme pression-temperature du beryllium pur" (Contribution to the Study of the Pressure-Temperature Diagram of Pure Beryllium)

An unusual feature of beryllium’s phase diagram is the transition from a hexagonal close packed (hcp, or α) to a body-centered cubic (bcc, or β) structure ~20 K below the normal melting temperature of T melt ≈ 1560 K. An early thermal analysis of 99.7% pure Be found two arrests1 : one at 1533-1536 K and another at 1551-1557 K. Without ruling out an allotropic transformation in Be itself, Sloman attributed the first of these to solidification of a Be-BeO eutectic. Losano observed only the higher of the two in 99.962% Be, seeming to confirm the notion that the lower feature was an artifact of impurity. Teitel (99.4%) also measured two arrests and attributed the lower to impurity, but questioned whether oxygen was the culprit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using limited neural networks to assess relative mechanistic influence on shock heating in granular solids

The rapid compaction of granular media results in localized heating that can induce chemical reactions, phase transformations, and melting. However, there are numerous mechanisms in play that can be dependent on a variety of microstructural features. Machine learning techniques such as neural networks offer a ubiquitous method to develop models for physical processes. Limiting what kind of microstructural information is used as an input and assessing normalized changes in network error, the relative importance of different mechanisms can be inferred. Here we utilize binned, initial density information as network inputs to predict local shock heating in a granular high explosive trained from large-scale molecular dynamics simulations. In this study, the spatial extent of the density field used in the network is altered to assess the importance and relevant length scales of the physical mechanisms in play, where different microstructural features result in different predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

ThunderSecure: deploying real-time intrusion detection for 100G research networks by leveraging stream-based features and one-class classification network

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks (40/100G) across distributed sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience intrusions. However, monitoring anomalies in such high-speed network traffics is challenging given current cyber-infrastructure. Moreover, traditional network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are signature based. However, anomaly patterns are difficult to define and that rulesets are often not updated frequently enough to reflect the changes of attack behaviors. We present ThunderSecure, a high-throughput, unsupervised learning-based intrusions detection system for 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements an efficient packet processing and detection pipeline using multi-cores and GPUs. It extracts statistical and temporal features from real-time network data streams and feeds them to a one-class anomaly detection network. A baseline of normal distribution will be created based on the training observation. Testing traffic deviated from the learned profile will be marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets mirrored from two 100G network connections at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic captured long after the training and made nearly certain detection on the segment of the streams where anomalous flows were injected.

100G research network↗
DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 plume evolution in a depleted natural gas reservoir: Modeling of conformance uncertainty reduction over time

Uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO 2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse-gas emission-mitigation for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here, we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to update operational models. We consider a case study of GCS in a depleted natural gas reservoir, with CO 2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care period. We constructed a detailed model to generate the actual model output, which is considered synthetic observation data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an operator would model such a site are then run and compared against actual model output at specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is updated and improved using the synthetic observation data from the actual model at the same time intervals. Model parameter values and model features needed to be updated over time to improve matches to the actual model. These kinds of model adjustments would be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. Uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance decreases with time: extent of the CO 2 plume up-dip migration, and radial extent of the pressure pulse. This conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about uncertainty in long-term fate of CO 2 at GCS sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reactivity-initiated accidents in two pressurized water reactor high burnup core designs

Here, this paper presents a safety analysis of two proposed core loadings for 24-month Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fuel cycles. This analysis focuses on reactivity-initiated accidents (RIAs) and evaluates core safety performance impacts of rod-averaged burnup limits up to 75 GWD/MTU and less than 7 % enriched UO 2 . The capabilities of Polaris, PARCS, and RELAP5-3D are leveraged to evaluate the core neutronic and thermal–hydraulic behavior for normal-operation, uncontrolled control rod withdrawal (CRW) transients, and control rod ejection (CRE) accidents. The two core designs are compared to identify features of realistic high burnup/extended enrichment core design approaches which have significant safety impact, identify experimental data needs for high-fidelity predictive modeling, and provide recommendations for future high burnup core designs. The first core design evaluated in this study was developed by Southern Nuclear Company and used an ZrB 2 Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber (IFBA) and B 4 C Wet-Annular Burnable Absorber (WABA)-based burnable poison strategy. The second core design assessed in this work used a Gd 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 burnable poison, similar to that used in boiling water reactors or French PWRs. Results indicate that fuel thermal limits are maintained for limiting CRW and hot full power (HFP) CRE transients. Cladding failure is predicted for the highest energy deposition rods in each core during limiting hot zero power (HZP) CRE accidents (where maximum radially averaged enthalpy exceeds 120 cal/g), though licensing may be permissible with a limited number of failed rods. While concerns exist regarding high critical boron concentration during steady state for the IFBA core and large plenum pressures for the gadolinia core design, the analysis demonstrates adequate safety performance during limiting RIA accident scenarios for two representative high burnup core designs. Design changes limiting plenum pressures and implementation of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding features which minimize hydriding and susceptibility to pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) are recommended for future high burnup fuel concepts. To support the technical basis for burnup limit increases, high-fidelity fuel performance models are needed to address physical effects not considered in this analysis, and high burnup irradiated fuel tests are required to extend applicability of the fuel failure limits and validate existing and future models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of non-linear mutual friction on pulsar glitch sizes and rise times

ABSTRACT Observations of pulsar glitches have the potential to provide constraints on the dynamics of the high density interior of neutron stars. However, to do so, realistic glitch models must be constructed and compared to the data. We take a step towards this goal by testing non-linear models for the mutual friction force, which is responsible for the exchange of angular momentum between the neutron superfluid and the observable normal component in a glitch. In particular, we consider a non-linear dependence of the drag force on the relative velocity between superfluid vortices and the normal component, in which the contributions of both kelvin and phonon excitations are included. This non-linear model produces qualitatively new features, and is able to reproduce the observed bimodal distribution of glitch sizes in the pulsar population. The model also suggests that the differences in size distributions in individual pulsars may be due to the glitches being triggered in regions with different pinning strengths, as stronger pinning leads to higher vortex velocities and a qualitatively different mutual friction coupling with respect to the weak pinning case. Glitches in pulsars that appear to glitch quasi-periodically with similar sizes may thus be due to the same mechanisms as smaller events in pulsars that have no preferred glitch size, but simply originate in stronger pinning regions, possibly in the core of the star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Envelope- and Machine Learning-Based Electrical Fault Type Detection Algorithms for Electrical Distribution Grids

This study introduces envelope- and machine learning (ML)-based electrical fault type detection algorithms for electrical distribution grids, advancing beyond traditional logic-based methods. The proposed detection model involves three stages: anomaly area detection, ML-based fault presence detection, and ML-based fault type detection. Initially, an envelope-based detector identifying the anomaly region was improved to handle noisier power grid signals from meters. The second stage acts as a switch, detecting the presence of a fault among four classes: normal, motor, switching, and fault. Finally, if a fault is detected, the third stage identifies specific fault types. This study explored various feature extraction methods and evaluated different ML algorithms to maximize prediction accuracy. The performance of the proposed algorithms is tested in an emulated software–hardware electrical grid testbed using different sample rate meters/relays, such as SEL735, SEL421, SEL734, SEL700GT, and SEL351S near and far from an inverter-based photovoltaic array farm. The performance outcomes demonstrate the proposed model’s robustness and accuracy under realistic conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-class decision system for categorizing industrial asset attack and fault types

According to some embodiments, a plurality of monitoring nodes may each generate a series of current monitoring node values over time that represent a current operation of the industrial asset. A node classifier computer, coupled to the plurality of monitoring nodes, may receive the series of current monitoring node values and generate a set of current feature vectors. The node classifier computer may also access at least one multi-class classifier model having at least one decision boundary. The at least one multi-class classifier model may be executed and the system may transmit a classification result based on the set of current feature vectors and the at least one decision boundary. The classification result may indicate, for example, whether a monitoring node status is normal, attacked, or faulty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Common Origin of Normal Type Ia Supernovae Suggested by the Photometric Diversity

In recent years, with the increasing number of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered soon after their explosions, a nonnegligible fraction of SNe Ia with early-excess emissions (EExSNe Ia) have been confirmed. In this paper, we present a total of 67 early-phase normal SNe Ia from published papers and ongoing transient survey projects to systematically investigate their photometric behaviors from very early time. We found that EExSNe Ia in our sample have longer rise and brighter peak luminosities compared to non-EExSNe Ia. Moreover, EExSNe Ia commonly have “tiny red bump” or “blue plateau” features in the early B − V color while non-EExSNe Ia show blueward evolution from the very beginning. Here, we propose that the thin He-shell double detonation scenario can phenomenologically explain the photometric diversities of normal SNe Ia considering different white dwarf–He-shell mass combinations and the viewing angle effect, implying a unified explosion mechanism of normal-type SNe Ia. To further verify the possible common origin of normal SNe Ia, systematical studies of multiband photometric and spectral properties of early-phase SNe Ia through the new-generation wide-field time-domain survey facilities and global real-time follow-up networks are highly needed.

Wu, Weiyu↗
DOE OSTI2023

SN 2021fxy: mid-ultraviolet flux suppression is a common feature of Type Ia supernovae

ABSTRACT We present ultraviolet (UV) to near-infrared (NIR) observations and analysis of the nearby Type Ia supernova SN 2021fxy. Our observations include UV photometry from Swift/UVOT, UV spectroscopy from HST/STIS, and high-cadence optical photometry with the Swope 1-m telescope capturing intranight rises during the early light curve. Early B − V colours show SN 2021fxy is the first ‘shallow-silicon’ (SS) SN Ia to follow a red-to-blue evolution, compared to other SS objects which show blue colours from the earliest observations. Comparisons to other spectroscopically normal SNe Ia with HST UV spectra reveal SN 2021fxy is one of several SNe Ia with flux suppression in the mid-UV. These SNe also show blueshifted mid-UV spectral features and strong high-velocity Ca ii features. One possible origin of this mid-UV suppression is the increased effective opacity in the UV due to increased line blanketing from high velocity material, but differences in the explosion mechanism cannot be ruled out. Among SNe Ia with mid-UV suppression, SNe 2021fxy and 2017erp show substantial similarities in their optical properties despite belonging to different Branch subgroups, and UV flux differences of the same order as those found between SNe 2011fe and 2011by. Differential comparisons to multiple sets of synthetic SN Ia UV spectra reveal this UV flux difference likely originates from a luminosity difference between SNe 2021fxy and 2017erp, and not differing progenitor metallicities as suggested for SNe 2011by and 2011fe. These comparisons illustrate the complicated nature of UV spectral formation, and the need for more UV spectra to determine the physical source of SNe Ia UV diversity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Relationship between Precipitation and Precipitable Water in CMIP6 Simulations and Implications for Tropical Climatology and Change

It is well documented that over the tropical oceans, column-integrated precipitable water (pw) and precipitation (P) have a nonlinear relationship. In this study moisture budget analysis is used to examine this P–pw relationship in a normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the parameters of the nonlinear relationship depend on the vertical structure of moisture convergence. Specifically, the precipitable water values at which precipitation is balanced independently by evaporation versus by moisture convergence define a critical normalized precipitable water, pw nc . This is a measure of convective inhibition that separates tropical precipitation into two regimes: a local evaporation-controlled regime with widespread drizzle and a precipitable water–controlled regime. Most of the 17 CMIP6 historical simulations examined here have higher pw nc compared to ERA5, and more frequently they operate in the drizzle regime. When compared to observations, they overestimate precipitation over the high-evaporation oceanic regions off the equator, thereby producing a ‘‘double ITCZ’’ feature, while underestimating precipitation over the large tropical landmasses and over the climatologically moist oceanic regions near the equator. The responses to warming under the SSP585 scenario are also examined using the normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the critical normalized precipitable water value at which evaporation versus moisture convergence balance precipitation decreases as a result of the competing dynamic and thermodynamic responses to warming, resulting in an increase in drizzle and total precipitation. Statistically significant historical trends corresponding to the thermodynamic and dynamic changes are detected in ERA5 and in lowintensity drizzle precipitation in the PERSIANN precipitation dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗