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DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Expected Shortfall via Quantum Annealing

Recent advances in quantum hardware offer new approaches to solve various optimization problems that can be computationally expensive when classical algorithms are employed. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to solve a dynamic asset allocation problem where a target return and a target risk metric (expected shortfall) are specified. We propose an iterative algorithm that treats the target return as a constraint in a Markowitz portfolio optimization model, and dynamically adjusts the target return to satisfy the targeted expected shortfall. The Markowitz optimization is formulated as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem. The use of the expected shortfall risk metric enables the modeling of extreme market events. We compare the results from D-Wave’s 2000Q and Advantage quantum annealers using real-world financial data. Both quantum annealers are able to generate portfolios with more than 80% of the return of the classical optimal solutions, while satisfying the expected shortfall. We observe that experiments on assets with higher correlations tend to perform better, which may help to design practical quantum applications in the near term.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics and Variability of the Nearshore Wave Resource on the U.S. West Coast

Characterizing the nearshore wave resource at a regional scale poses a great challenge because high-quality wave data are required. This paper presents a detailed analysis of nearshore wave climate and resource characterization on the U.S. West Coast based on a 32-year, regional wave hindcast. Resource characterization closely followed the International Electrotechnical Commission standards. The wave hindcast data were generated from an unstructured-grid SWAN model with approximately 300 m grid resolution in the nearshore region. Statistics of six IEC wave resource parameters at the 50 m water depth were calculated for four sub-regions along the coast, including Washington, Oregon, and Northern and Southern California. Results indicate that the Washington and Oregon coast has a similar nearshore wave resource. The wave resource in Southern California is significantly less than that of the Washington and Oregon coast. Alongshore and cross-shore variabilities of wave power were assessed. Temporal variability, at seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales were analyzed. Overall, strong seasonal variation is observed; high wave energy occurs in the winter months and calm seas in the summer. Finally, extreme environmental conditions, i.e., the 100-year extreme environmental contours, for different locations along the West Coast were investigated.

wave resource characterization, nearshore, west co↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extreme terahertz magnon multiplication induced by resonant magnetic pulse pairs

Nonlinear interactions of spin-waves and their quanta, magnons, have emerged as prominent candidates for interference-based technology, ranging from quantum transduction to antiferromagnetic spintronics. Yet magnon multiplication in the terahertz (THz) spectral region represents a major challenge. Intense, resonant magnetic fields from THz pulse-pairs with controllable phases and amplitudes enable high order THz magnon multiplication, distinct from non-resonant nonlinearities such as the high harmonic generation by below-band gap electric fields. Here, we demonstrate exceptionally high-order THz nonlinear magnonics. It manifests as 7th-order spin-wave-mixing and 6th harmonic magnon generation in an antiferromagnetic orthoferrite. We use THz two-dimensional coherent spectroscopy to achieve high-sensitivity detection of nonlinear magnon interactions up to six-magnon quanta in strongly-driven many-magnon correlated states. The high-order magnon multiplication, supported by classical and quantum spin simulations, elucidates the significance of four-fold magnetic anisotropy and Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya symmetry breaking. Moreover, our results shed light on the potential quantum fluctuation properties inherent in nonlinear magnons.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mapping wave packet bifurcation at a conical intersection in CH 3 I by attosecond XUV transient absorption spectroscopy

Extreme ultraviolet (XUV) transient absorption spectroscopy has emerged as a sensitive tool for mapping the real-time structural and electronic evolution of molecules. Here, attosecond XUV transient absorption is used to track dynamics in the A-band of methyl iodide (CH 3 I). Gaseous CH 3 I molecules are excited to the A-band by a UV pump (277 nm, ~20 fs) and probed by attosecond XUV pulses targeting iodine I(4d) core-to-valence transitions. Owing to the excellent temporal resolution of the technique, passage through a conical intersection is mapped through spectral signatures of nonadiabatic wave packet bifurcation observed to occur at 15 ± 4 fs following UV photoexcitation. The observed XUV signatures and time dynamics are in agreement with previous simulations [H. Wang, M. Odelius, and D. Prendergast, J. Chem. Phys. 151, 124106 (2019)]. Furthermore, due to the short duration of the UV pump pulse, coherent vibrational motion in the CH 3 I ground state along the C-I stretch mode (538 ± 7 cm -1 ) launched by resonant impulsive stimulated Raman scattering and dynamics in multiphoton excited states of CH 3 I are also detected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

(Un)Explained EMIC Waves: Understanding Quiet Time EMIC Wave Drivers

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are known to be generated through cyclotron resonance with the local ion particle population and grow when there is a large enough temperature anisotropy. In general, these temperature anisotropies necessary for wave growth are found to be associated with either solar wind pressure pulses or particle injections during geomagnetic storms or substorms. However, some EMIC events do not show any clear association with these known drivers and appear unexplained. In our analysis of high-amplitude (>1 nT) non-storm time EMIC waves, we find that 24 out of the 223 (~11%) EMIC events with peak amplitude greater than 1 nT were not found to be associated with any clear EMIC wave driver. This raises a compelling question: What magnetospheric or solar wind driver provides the free energy to grow these quiet-time EMIC waves? Here, we examine two EMIC events on 13 April 2017 and 13 February 2014, which were excited during extremely quiet solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of field and particle measurements from multiple data sets, including ground and in situ data for these two events, indicates that extremely weak and otherwise insignificant pressure values and/or very weak substorm injections occurring multiple hours before the event play a significant role in quiet time wave generation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Astrophysics through simulations of neutron star mergers using Monte‐Carlo neutrino radiation transport (DE-SC0020435 Final Technical Report)

Neutron star mergers are an important source of information for nuclear physics. Except for black holes, neutron stars are the densest macroscopic objects known to exist in the Universe. They provide us with a remarkable laboratory to study the poorly understood high-density states of matter, complementing the study of heavy nuclei performed by nuclear physics experiments on Earth. Collisions of neutron stars are of particular interest. They are among the most energetic events observable in the Universe, powering a broad range of signals across the electromagnetic spectrum as well as gravitational wave signals. These signals contain important information about the properties of extremely dense matter. Colliding neutron stars additionally eject large amounts of neutron-rich material into the surrounding interstellar medium -- material that then undergoes rapid neutron-capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis, the mechanism thought to be responsible for the production of about half of the heavy nuclei. In order to understand current and future observations of neutron star mergers, we need reliable models for the signals that they power. An important component in the construction of such models are numerical simulations of colliding neutron stars. These simulations are costly, running for multiple months on supercomputers, and require the inclusion of complex physics (general relativity, magnetohydrodynamics, neutrino physics, nuclear reactions). In this document, we describe the development of new methods for the treatment of neutrinos in merger simulations, as well as the first simulations capable of evolving the equations of neutrino radiation transport directly and their impact on our understanding of neutron star mergers and more broadly in nuclear astrophysics. We also discuss additional work performed in the study of nucleosynthesis and neutrino physics in neutron star mergers as part of Early Career Award DE-SC0020435.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying heat extremes in China attributed to rising greenhouse gases and declining aerosols since the 2010s

Rising temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events over China in recent decades. The upward trends in heat extremes in China in the warm season (May–September) and their relationships with changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model results. Significant increasing trends in China are observed in daily maximum temperatures (TXx), heatwave frequency, and heatwave mean duration during 2011–2023, with increasing rates of 0.70 °C/decade, 3.77 d/decade and 0.31 d/event/decade, respectively. This study shows that 43 ± 3% of the TXx increases in China are attributed to the rising CO2 concentrations. Aerosol optical depth in China decreased at a rate of 0.054 per decade from 2011 to 2023 due to significant air quality improvements. The weakened aerosol cooling effect due to declining aerosols contributes 27 ± 3% to the observed TXx trend. In eastern China, where aerosol reductions were most significant, aerosol reduction even accounts for 79 ± 10% of the TXx increasing trend. The intensifying heat waves attributed to GHGs and aerosols are in accordance with the increasing extreme high temperatures. The results highlight the significant impacts of rising GHGs and decreasing aerosols on heat extreme events over China in recent years, emphasizing the need of considering both GHGs and aerosols to address the issue of intensification of heat extremes in a warming future.

Zou, Aili↗

DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: Future Gravitational-Wave Detector Facilities

The next generation of gravitational-wave observatories can explore a wide range of fundamental physics phenomena throughout the history of the universe. These phenomena include access to the universe's binary black hole population throughout cosmic time, to the universe's expansion history independent of the cosmic distance ladders, to stochastic gravitational-waves from early-universe phase transitions, to warped space-time in the strong-field and high-velocity limit, to the equation of state of nuclear matter at neutron star and post-merger densities, and to dark matter candidates through their interaction in extreme astrophysical environments or their interaction with the detector itself. We present the gravitational-wave detector concepts than can drive the future of gravitational-wave astrophysics. We summarize the status of the necessary technology, and the research needed to be able to build these observatories in the 2030s.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupled nuclear–electronic decay dynamics of O2 inner valence excited states revealed by attosecond XUV wave-mixing spectroscopy

Multiple Rydberg series converging to the $O_2^+$ c $^{4}Σ^{-}_{u}$ state, accessed by 20-25 eV extreme ultraviolet (XUV) light, serve as important model systems for the competition between nuclear dissociation and electronic autoionization. The dynamics of the lowest member of these series, the $3sσ_g $ state around 21 eV, has been challenging to study owing to its ultra-short lifetime (<10 fs). Here, we apply transient wave-mixing spectroscopy with an attosecond XUV pulse to investigate the decay dynamics of this electronic state. Lifetimes of 5.8 ± 0.5 fs and 4.5 ± 0.7 fs at 95% confidence intervals are obtained for v = 0 and v = 1 vibrational levels of the 3s Rydberg state, respectively. A theoretical treatment of predissociation and electronic autoionization finds that these lifetimes are dominated by electronic autoionization. The strong dependence of the electronic autoionization rate on the internuclear distance because of two ionic decay channels that cross the 3s Rydberg state results in the different lifetimes of the two vibrational levels. The calculated lifetimes are highly sensitive to the location of the 3s potential with respect to the decay channels; by slight adjustment of the location, values of 6.2 and 5.0 fs are obtained computationally for the v = 0 and v = 1 levels, respectively, in good agreement with experiment. Overall, an intriguing picture of the coupled nuclear-electronic dynamics is revealed by attosecond XUV wave-mixing spectroscopy, indicating that the decay dynamics are not a simple competition between isolated autoionization and predissociation processes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging nuclear physics across energy scales: from neutrinoless double-beta decay to high-energy heavy-ion collisions

This paper exemplifies how connecting methods at disparate energy scales can illuminate fundamental questions. By demonstrating that nuclear wave function properties governing rare decay processes also influence collective behavior at extreme temperatures and densities, the authors have opened a new pathway for constraining physics beyond the Standard Model. With multiple ton-scale 0νββ experiments under construction, any method reducing NME uncertainties will directly impact our ability to interpret discoveries or constrain neutrino properties. The general principle—that collective phenomena in high-energy collisions can illuminate subtle features of many-body correlations in the colliding nuclei—may find applications across nuclear and particle physics. Furthermore, this intersection of nuclear structure theory, heavy-ion physics, and fundamental symmetry tests represents fertile ground for future discoveries in modern physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unveiling the orbital texture of 1T-TiTe 2 using intrinsic linear dichroism in multidimensional photoemission spectroscopy

The momentum-dependent orbital character in crystalline solids, referred to as orbital texture, is of capital importance in the emergence of symmetry-broken collective phases, such as charge density waves as well as superconducting and topological states of matter. By performing extreme ultraviolet multidimensional angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy for two different crystal orientations linked to each other by mirror symmetry, we isolate and identify the role of orbital texture in photoemission from the transition metal dichalcogenide 1T-TiTe 2 . By comparing our experimental results with theoretical calculations based on both a quantitative one-step model of photoemission and an intuitive tight-binding model, we unambiguously demonstrate the link between the momentum-dependent orbital orientation and the emergence of strong intrinsic linear dichroism in the photoelectron angular distributions. Our results represent an important step towards going beyond band structure (eigenvalues) mapping and learning about electronic wavefunction and orbital texture of solids by exploiting matrix element effects in photoemission spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Competition between charge-density-wave and superconducting orders on eight-leg square Hubbard cylinders

The issue of whether d-wave superconductivity (SC) occurs in the square-lattice Hubbard model with U of order of the bandwidth has been one of the most debated issues to emerge from the study of high temperature SC. Here, we report variational results on eight-leg cylinders with next-nearest-neighbor hopping in the range $-0.5t\le t^{\prime} \le 0.25t$ with U = 8t and 12t and doped hole concentrations δ = 1/12 and 1/8. For $t^{\prime} \le 0$, the ground-state appears to be a charge-density wave (CDW) of one sort or another with SC correlations that are extremely short-ranged. In contrast, in some cases, the local magnetic order has a correlation length greater than half the cylinder width - suggestive that magnetic order might also arise in the 2D limit. For $t^{\prime} \le 0$, our results depend more strongly on boundary conditions (periodic vs antiperiodic), making it still harder to correctly guess whether SC or CDW correlations dominate in the 2D limit. These results were obtained employing matrix-product states with bond dimensions large enough that energy differences as small as 10 −3 t per site can be resolved.

materials science↗