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At least 163 records · Page 9

A Multi-Criteria Impact Evaluation Methodology Applied to FLEX Strategies in Nuclear Power Plants

As responses to Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, several advanced, near-term technologies have been or are being introduced to enhance safety of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) as well as improving their sustainability. Examples include Accident-Tolerant Fuel designs, Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), and passive cooling system designs. The combinations of these technologies, coupled with enhancements to plant components and systems and improved fuel cycle efficiency, constitute a concept of Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, which is proposed and being explored by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. To decide if introducing a technology is necessary or worthy, the impacts of this technology on NPPs should be evaluated, preferably in a quantitative manner, and provided to decision makers. This paper summarizes an on-going work conducted by the authors on developing a multi-criteria impact evaluation methodology. This methodology is expected to be applicable to evaluate a variety of technologies, while FLEX strategy is adopted as a case study for this paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Impact of Nutrition on the Gut Microbiota: Implications for Parkinson’s Disease

Abstract Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a multifactorial neurodegenerative disease that is characterized by the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta and by the anomalous accumulation of α-synuclein aggregates into Lewy bodies and Lewy neurites. Research suggests 2 distinct subtypes of PD: the brain-first subtype if the pathology arises from the brain and then spreads to the peripheral nervous system (PNS) and the body-first subtype, where the pathological process begins in the PNS and then spreads to the central nervous system. This review primarily focuses on the body-first subtype. The influence of the gut microbiota on the development of PD has been the subject of growing interest among researchers. It has been suggested that gut inflammation may be closely associated with pathogenesis in PD, therefore leading to the hypothesis that gut microbiota modulation could play a significant role in this process. Nutrition can influence gut health and alter the risk and progression of PD by altering inflammatory markers. This review provides an overview of recent research that correlates variations in gut microbiota composition between patients with PD and healthy individuals with the impact of certain nutrients and dietary patterns, including the Mediterranean diet, the Western diet, and the ketogenic diet. It explores how these diets influence gut microbiota composition and, consequently, the risk of PD. Last, it examines fecal transplantation and the use of prebiotics, probiotics, or synbiotics as potential therapeutic strategies to balance the gut microbiome, aiming to reduce the risk or delay the progression of PD.

Sobral, Joana (ORCID:0009000334922337)↗

Galactic cosmic ray simulation at the NASA space radiation laboratory – Progress, challenges and recommendations on mixed-field effects

For missions beyond low Earth orbit to the moon or Mars, space explorers will encounter a complex radiation field composed of various ion species with a broad range of energies. Such missions pose significant radiation protection challenges that need to be solved in order to minimize exposures and associated health risks. An innovative galactic cosmic ray simulator (GCRsim) was recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The GCRsim technology is intended to represent major components of the space radiation environment in a ground analog laboratory setting where it can be used to improve understanding of biological risks and serve as a testbed for countermeasure development and validation. The current GCRsim consists of 33 energetic ion beams that collectively simulate the primary and secondary GCR field encountered by humans in space over the broad range of particle types, energies, and linear energy transfer (LET) of interest to health effects. A virtual workshop was held in December 2020 to assess the status of the NASA baseline GCRsim. Workshop attendees examined various aspects of simulator design, with a particular emphasis on beam selection strategies. Experimental results, modeling approaches, areas of consensus, and questions of concern were also discussed in detail. This report includes a summary of the GCRsim workshop and a description of the current status of the GCRsim. This information is important for future advancements and applications in space radiobiology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

Aviation security screening optimizer for risk and throughput (ASSORT)

The increasing number of air travelers each year presents a challenge as many airports are near their capacity in terms of resources and space for passenger screening. Fortunately, advancements in technologies like next-generation millimeter wave scanning offer solutions to ease this strain. The focus remains on managing risk while enhancing the passenger experience for the traveling public. The risk model presented in this paper known as the Aviation Security Screening Optimizer for Risk and Throughput (ASSORT) is designed to assess risk-based approaches for passenger screening and checkpoint operations. Additionally, ASSORT is exploring various traveler categories — general, trusted, and trusted-plus — along with different checkpoint screening Concept of Operations tailored to each traveler type. For instance, travelers with a higher trust level may experience fewer screening technologies, resulting in quicker processing times at the checkpoint. The output of ASSORT provides a risk score for predefined threat scenarios, as well as the overall risk to the checkpoint, aircraft, and airport by traveler type. In conclusion, benefits of using this tool include assessing the trade-offs between the overall risk associated with checkpoints and the throughput rate of passengers screened. We show for example the impact that different passenger volumes at the checkpoint can have on risk.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Risks and Benefits of Pressurized Water Reactor Coupling to Energy Storage and Water Desalination

This research explored potential options to improve nuclear pressurized water reactors’ (PWRs) operational flexibility through integration with thermal energy storage (TES) and water desalination technologies. Benefits and challenges of TES technologies were reviewed, which includes sensible heat storage systems, latent heat storage systems, and thermochemical storage systems. Water desalination technologies were reviewed and compared, which includes multi-stage flash, reverse osmosis, and multi-effect distillation. The multi-effect distillation technology was selected to be coupled with a generic PWR. Risk of this cogeneration was quantified using the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology. Results suggest that nuclear-desalination cogeneration can be done safely because the additional risk to the PWR is trivial, and even in certain cases the PWR risk is decreased. This cogeneration operation is expected to improve efficiency of thermal utilization and the nuclear plant’s revenues. In summary, this study supports the potential of nuclear-desalination cogeneration systems to address water scarcity while optimizing nuclear energy use and managing safety.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Leveraging machine learning to improve understanding and predictability of weather/climate extremes and the resilience of human systems

Focal Area(s): Developing hybrid models for predicting weather/climate extremes at the intersection of the urban environment (focal area #2). Science Challenge: Limited by many sources of uncertainty, numerical models are unable to accurately simulate weather and climate processes and this problem is particularly acute for modeling extreme events, including hurricanes. Moreover, computational limits within these numerical models bound our ability to develop large ensembles to explore this uncertainty and the implications relative to characterization of risk and resilience within the human systems that are impacted by changes in extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Africa Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Capacity Building Utility-Scale Storage: BESS Valuation, Tariffs, and Remuneration [Slides]

Utility-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are key to enhancing grid reliability, integrating renewable energy, and providing operational flexibility. Designing effective valuation, remuneration, and tariff frameworks is essential to ensure both system benefits and financial viability for developers. This presentation outlines a structured methodology for evaluating BESS projects, covering policy and legal considerations, cost and revenue analysis, benchmarking, financial sensitivity, and risk assessment, while ensuring alignment with public interest. It also explores valuation of multiple storage services - bulk energy, ancillary services, and infrastructure support - and monetization strategies through capacity payments, energy tariffs, tolling, arbitrage, and non-wires alternative payments. Technical factors, including round-trip efficiency, degradation, and storage duration, are integrated into financial and operational modeling to quantify both system-wide and project-level benefits. Through case studies and simulation-based approaches, this framework provides regulators, utilities, and developers with practical guidance for tariff design, payment structures, and investment decisions, maximizing the economic and societal value of BESS deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Security constrained optimal power shutoff for wildfire risk mitigation

Abstract Electric grid faults are increasingly the source of ignition for major wildfires. To reduce the likelihood of such ignitions in high risk situations, utilities use preemptive de‐energization of power lines, commonly referred to as Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS). Besides raising challenging trade‐offs between power outages and wildfire safety, PSPS removes redundancy from the network at a time when component faults are likely to happen. This may leave the network particularly vulnerable to unexpected line faults that may occur while the PSPS is in place. Previous works have not explicitly considered the impacts of these outages. To address this gap, the Security Constrained Optimal Power Shutoff problem is proposed which uses post‐contingency security constraints to model the impact of unexpected line faults when planning a PSPS. This model enables, for the first time, the exploration of a wide range of trade‐offs between both wildfire risk and pre‐ and post‐contingency load shedding when designing PSPS plans, providing useful insights for utilities and policy makers considering different approaches to PSPS. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated using the EPRI 39‐bus system as a case study. The results highlight the potential risks of not considering security constraints when planning PSPS and show that incorporating security constraints into the PSPS design process improves the resilience of current PSPS plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Implementing Zero Energy Design with the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon

The U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon® Design Challenge is a collegiate competition that challenges student teams to design high performance buildings that push the boundaries of the industry. In the 2020 competition, DOE is piloting Design Partners, a low-risk opportunity for builders and building owners to harness student innovation and explore zero energy design for current or upcoming projects. Design Partners provide a student team of architects and engineers with project requirements. By the end of the Challenge, Design Partners receive a zero energy alternative and cost estimate for their project. The collaboration allows Design Partners to incorporate innovative concepts such as grid-interactivity, resilience, and low embodied carbon in a low-risk environment and provides the future generation of engineers and architects with invaluable experience designing a building for a client under real-world circumstances. Attendees will leave understanding the “perfect storm” of policy, technology, health, and economic trends that make zero energy buildings desirable and feasible and the value of the U.S. DOE Solar Decathlon to industry. They will also get a sneak peek at innovative solutions 2020 Design Partner pilot projects are bringing to the building industry and how becoming a Design Partner in 2021 could benefit their organization.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Decathlon® Design Challenge is a collegiate competition that challenges student teams to design high-performance buildings that push the boundaries of the industry. In the 2020 Design Challenge, DOE piloted the Design Partners Program, a low-risk opportunity for builders and building owners to harness student innovation and explore zero energy design for current or upcoming projects. Design Partners provide a student team of architects and engineers with project requirements. By the end of the Design Challenge, Design Partners receive a zero-energy design alternative and cost estimate for their project. The collaboration allows Design Partners to incorporate innovative concepts such as grid-interactivity, resilience, and low embodied carbon in a low-risk environment. It also provides the future generation of engineers and architects with invaluable experience designing a building for a client under real-world circumstances. This article summarizes the current policy, technology, health, and economic trends that make zero energy buildings desirable and feasible, and presents the value of the Solar Decathlon to industry. We highlight innovative solutions 2020 Design Partner pilot projects are bringing to the building industry.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Integrating Cyber-Informed Engineering into Process Automation

As organizations increasingly automate their core missions and essential functions to address business risks and enhance efficiency, process automation becomes pivotal. This shift, involving minimal or no manual intervention, significantly impacts an organization's cyber-risk landscape. While automation drives efficiencies, it also introduces new cyber risks if not properly managed. Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) provides a proactive framework for managing these digital risks, enhancing cyber-resilience in process automation. This document supports organizations in applying CIE principles to mitigate the cyber risks associated with automation. The outlined approach can be independently implemented to improve any organization’s cyber-resilience, ensuring that the advantages of automation do not result in unaddressed or unmanaged digital risks. It serves as a starting point, offering considerations for integrating CIE principles and practices into organizational processes. CIE is presented as an iterative process, fostering continuous improvement and reinforcing the engineering and operational cultures to manage digital risks effectively. The document is structured as follows: Section 1 provides background on CIE and process automation, and their integration. Section 2 explores the twelve CIE principles in the context of process automation, highlighting key questions, engineering considerations, and implications for digital risk management. Section 3 synthesizes the findings and offers recommendations to advance resilience by design.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Enhancing Early Systems R&D Capabilities with Systems —Theoretic Process Analysis

Systems engineering today faces a wide array of challenges, ranging from new operational environments to disruptive technological — necessitating approaches to improve research and development (R&D) efforts. Yet, emphasizing the Aristotelian argument that the “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seems to offer a conceptual foundation creating new R&D solutions. Invoking systems theoretic concepts of emergence and hierarchy and analytic characteristics of traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness is potentially beneficial for guiding R&D strategy and development to bridge the gap between theoretical problem spaces and engineering-based solutions. In response, this article describes systems–theoretic process analysis (STPA) as an example of one such approach to aid in early-systems R&D discussions. STPA—a ‘top-down’ process that abstracts real complex system operations into hierarchical control structures, functional control loops, and control actions—uses control loop logic to analyze how control actions (designed for desired system behaviors) may become violated and drive the complex system toward states of higher risk. By analyzing how needed controls are not provided (or out of sequence or stopped too soon) and unneeded controls are provided (or engaged too long), STPA can help early-system R&D discussions by exploring how requirements and desired actions interact to either mitigate or potentially increase states of risk that can lead to unacceptable losses. This article will demonstrate STPA's benefit for early-system R&D strategy and development discussion by describing such diverse use cases as cyber security, nuclear fuel transportation, and US electric grid performance. Together, the traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness of STPA serve as useful tools for improving R&D strategy and development discussions. In conclusion, leveraging STPA as well as related systems engineering techniques can be helpful in early R&D planning and strategy development to better triangulate deeper theoretical meaning or evaluate empirical results to better inform systems engineering solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Field Design Concept for Second Interaction Region of the Electron-Ion Collider

Efficient realization of the scientific potential of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) calls for addition of a future second Interaction Region (2nd IR) and a detector in the RHIC IR8 region after the EIC project completion. The second IR and detector are needed to independently cross-check the results of the first detector, and to provide measurements with complementary acceptance. The available space in the existing RHIC IR8 and maximum fields achievable with NbTi superconducting magnet technology impose constraints on the 2nd IR performance. Since commissioning of the 2nd IR is envisioned in a few years after the first IR, such a long time frame allows for more R&D on the Nb₃Sn magnet technology. Thus, it could provide a potential alternative technology choice for the 2nd IR magnets. Presently, we are exploring its potential benefits for the 2nd IR performance, such as improvement of the luminosity and acceptance, and are also assessing the technical risks associated with use of Nb₃Sn magnets. In this paper, we present the current progress of this work.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A procedure for rule extraction from a Self-Organising plasma disruption predictor for JET

In a previous paper, a Self-Organizing Map had proven to be able to identify the regions of the plasma operative space characterizing the pre-disruptive phase at JET without relying on any a priori information. One of the strengths of this disruption predictor lies in its inherent self-organization capability. The Self-Organizing Map discovers non-trivial relationships and captures the complicated interplay of device diagnostics on the internal plasma states directly from the experimental data. Moreover, the provided model allows the visualization of high-dimensional plasma parameters and facilitates easy interrogation of the model to understand the reasons behind its correlations. In this paper, an additional step is taken towards the interpretability of models for predicting disruptions by training a Decision Tree to classify the plasma states according to the interpretation provided by the Self-Organizing Map (stable or at high risk of disruptions). The Decision tree provides a set of rules which describe the transition of the plasma towards the pre-disruptive phase as visualized in the Self-Organizing Map. The obtained rules for the database explored in the study identify four regions in the map, two of which are at risk of disruption. These regions correspond to partitions of a 3D space based on the peaking factors of the core and divertor radiation, as well as the Locked Mode. The agreement between the Self-Organizing Map answers and the rules supplied by the Decision Tree is confirmed by the comparison of the performance exhibited by the two models in the prediction of disruptions.

Setzu, Samuele [Univ. of Cagliari, Monserrato, Cag↗

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗