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At least 163 records · Page 9

Relation Between the 3D-Geometry of the Coronal Wave and Associated CME During the 26 April 2008 Event

We study the kinematical characteristics and 3D geometry of a large-scale coronal wave that occurred in association with the 26 April 2008 flare-CME event. The wave was observed with the EUVI instruments aboard both STEREO spacecraft (STEREO-A and STEREO-B) with a mean speed of approx 240 km/s. The wave is more pronounced in the eastern propagation direction, and is thus, better observable in STEREO-B images. From STEREO-B observations we derive two separate initiation centers for the wave, and their locations fit with the coronal dimming regions. Assuming a simple geometry of the wave we reconstruct its 3D nature from combined STEREO-A and STEREO-B observations. We find that the wave structure is asymmetric with an inclination toward East. The associated CME has a deprojected speed of approx 750 +/- 50 km/s, and it shows a non-radial outward motion toward the East with respect to the underlying source region location. Applying the forward fitting model developed by Thernisien, Howard, and Vourlidas we derive the CME flux rope position on the solar surface to be close to the dimming regions. We conclude that the expanding flanks of the CME most likely drive and shape the coronal wave.

CMEs↗

Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

snow↗

Patent Foramen Ovale: Association between the Degree of Shunt by Contrast Transesophageal Echocardiography and the Risk of Future Ischemic Neurologic Events

This study investigated whether there is an association between the degree of interatrial shunting across a patent foramen ovale, as determined by saline contrast transesophageal echocardiography, and the risk of subsequent systemic embolic events, including stroke. Thirty-four patients found to have patent foramen ovale during transesophageal echocardiography were divided into two groups on the basis of the maximum number of microbubbles in the left heart in any single frame after intravenous saline contrast injection: group 1 (n = 16) with a "large" degree of shunt (220 microbubbles) and group 2 (n = 18) with a "small" degree of shunt (23 but <20 microbubbles). Patients were followed up over a mean period of 21 months for subsequent systemic embolic events, including transient ischemic attack and stroke. Five (31%) of the patients with large shunts had subsequent ischemic neurologic events, whereas none of the patients with small shunts had embolic events (p= 0.03). These events occurred in spite of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. We conclude that patients with a large degree of shunt across a patent foramen ovale, as determined by contrast transesophageal echocardiography, are at a significantly higher risk for subsequent adverse neurologic events compared with patients with a small degree of shunt.

Stone, David A.↗

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

Are CME 'interactions' Really Important for Accelerating Major Solar Energetic Particle Events?

Recent studies have proposed that the presence or absence of an interaction with a preceding coronal mass ejection (CME) or other coronal structure within approximately 50R(sub s), of the Sun discriminates large, fast CMEs associated with major solar energetic particle (SEP) events from those that are not. We conclude that there is no compelling evidence that, if such interactions take place, they play an important role in SEP acceleration. Reasons include: The reported statistical results are consistent with a chance association between interacting CMEs and SEP events; Energetic SEPs are detected at Earth typically before or around the time when the primary CME enters the LASCO C2 field of view - interactions higher in the corona cannot play a role in acceleration of these particles; For approximately 60% of major SEP events in 1997-2001, the preceding CME fades into the background corona or is relatively narrow (less than 40 deg), suggesting any interaction will be weak; Radio signatures attributed to CME interaction occur after SEP acceleration has commenced.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Decoding Resilience by Modeling Outage and Restoration Processes in Distribution Grids: A Pittsburgh Case Study

Climate-induced extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, pose significant challenges to the resilience of urban power distribution grids. This paper examines the outage and restoration dynamics of Pittsburgh's power grid during the flood event in April 2024 and three heatwaves in June, July, and August 2024. We introduce a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates outage and restoration processes, enabling the quantification of resilience metrics, including total customer-hours of power outage, maximum residual values, and restoration durations across various ZIP codes. Our analysis highlights spatial disparities in outage impacts and restoration efficiencies, with ZIP Code 15222 experiencing the highest cumulative disruptions, while ZIP Code 15217 shows lower susceptibility. By linking statistical trends with weather events, this study underscores the critical need for targeted infrastructure upgrades and advanced restoration strategies. Furthermore, the proposed framework offers valuable insights for planning and managing resilient power systems in the face of increasing climate stress.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Association between interplanetary shock waves and delayed solar particle events.

In studying the propagation of energetic charged particles from a large solar flare, we can no longer regard the interplanetary medium as remaining in a steady state; disturbances in the flow of solar wind from these flares may have great effects on the observed fluxes of charged particles. Delayed particle events, also known as 'energetic storm particle' events, may exhibit an increase by an order of magnitude or greater in the flux of protons above 10 MeV over a period of the order of 6 hours. These events are seen in association with the passage of an interplanetary shock past the earth. It is proposed that the particles are accelerated locally at the time of the passage of the interplanetary blast wave.

Datlowe, D.↗

A statistical study of large electric field events in the earth's magnetotail

A statistical study of large electric field events, measured on ISEE 1 at geocentric distances of 3 to 23 earth radii, has been performed in order to determine the occurrence frequency and spatial distribution of such events. Large electric fields were seen at all altitudes, with the lowest altitude events occurring on auroral field lines and the higher altitude events occurring on the high latitude boundary of the plasma sheet. The largest events had amplitudes that were approximately proportional to the square root of the local magnetic field strength, in agreement with expectations of a simple mapping model. The apparent concentration of big field events near local midnight is caused, at least in part, by a nonuniform frequency of satellite crossings through the plasma sheet boundary as a function of local time. Thus, the spatial distribution and amplitudes of the large field events are not inconsistent with the mapping of low-altitude electrostatic shocks to the plasma sheet boundary along equipotential magnetic field lines.

Levin, S.↗

A comparative study of plasma expansion events in the polar wind

The temporal characteristics of the polar wind have been studied using a simplified set of collisionless equations and a full set of hydrodynamic equations which contained continuity, momentum, and energy equations for H(+), O(+), and electrons, including collisional conductivities and variable isotropic, ion and electron temperatures. The temporal evolution of the polar wind was modeled for initial, extended density depletions of factors of 3, 10, and 100 starting at several altitudes for each model. Comparison of the results from the two models showed the same temporal characteristics for the polar wind densities, flow velocities, and escape fluxes. The characteristics of plasma expansion are presented. It is found that the propagation velocities of the disturbance vary with the level of the depletion.

Gombosi, Tamas I.↗

An evaluation of observations from satellites for the study and prediction of mesoscale events and cyclone events

Quantitative observational guidelines have been developed for the study and forecasting of mesoscale events and cyclone events; many of these guidelines have resulted from major meteorological field programs. Increasingly sophisticated satellite-borne instruments in low and geosynchronous orbits have provided valuable measurements of these events. The major deficiencies in the measurements taken from geosynchronous orbit today, relative to guidelines, are (1) the lack of temperature profiles and moisture profiles below clouds, and the poor vertical resolution of these profiles; (2) the insufficient combination of spatial resolution and temporal resolution and spectral intervals available in generating images (imaging); and (3) the lack of accurate precipitation mapping. Considerably more-powerful instrumentation is possible on geosynchronous satellites that can substantially reduce these deficiencies. The capability of advanced geosynchronous observations and those expected with future instrumentation in low-orbit are evaluated with respect to tropical cyclone and severe local-storm observational guidelines. A high percentage of the guidelines are expected to be fulfilled with geosynchronous measurements: (1) using microwave instruments for imaging and for obtaining temperature profiles and moisture profiles, (2) very high spectral-resolution infrared profiling, (3) very high spatial-resolution and very high temporal-resolution imaging, and (4) ozone mapping.

Shenk, William E.↗

Instantaneous distortion in a Mach 2.5, 40-percent-internal-contraction inlet and its effect on turbojet stall margin

An experimental wind tunnel investigation was conducted to determine the effects of time-variant distortions produced in a supersonic inlet on a J85-GE-13 turbojet engine. Results are presented principally in terms of instantaneous distortion amplitudes and total-pressure contours measured through compressor stall. They indicate that, although a time-averaged distortion may be far from a stall-inducing value, corresponding instantaneous distortion amplitudes can approach or exceed this value. Seven engine stall events were studied. In six of these events instantaneous distortion peaks of sufficient magnitude to cause stall were observed in the time period shortly before stall was detected.

Burstadt, P. L.↗

Bulk cloud microphysical properties as seen from numerical simulation and remote sensing products: case study of a hailstorm event over the La Plata Basin

Hailstorms develop over the La Plata Basin, in south-eastern South America, more often during later winter and early austral spring, between September and October. These systems have significant socioeconomic impacts over the region. Thus, a better understanding of how atmospheric drivers modulate the formation of hailstorms is important to improve the forecast of such phenomena. In this study, we selected a hailstorm event observed over the eastern La Plata Basin during 14–15 July 2016 to evaluate the performance of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) model. The ability of the model in simulating cloud microphysical properties was evaluated by comparing simulations driven by different global forcings against in situ and remote sensing observations. The model results showed good skill in capturing the basic characteristics of the thunderstorm, particularly in terms of the spatial distribution of hydrometeors. The simulated spatial distribution of hail covers locations where hail fall was reported. The BRAMS simulations suggest that, despite relatively low values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) (700–1000 J kg -1 ), environments with strong 0–8-km bulk shear (60–70 kt, ~30.9–36.0 m s –1 ) can promote the formation of ice clouds and hail fall over the eastern La Plata Basin. To be more conclusive, however, further research is needed to understand how different combinations of CAPE and shear affect hail formation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Abstract As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

Reed, Kevin A. (ORCID:0000000337417080)↗

Heavy Ion Acceleration in 3he-Rich Solar Energetic Particle Events: New Insights From Solar Orbiter

We present Solar Orbiter energetic particle observations of two 3 He-rich events with features more clearly observed than in prior studies. The event of 2022 November 9 observed from 0.59 au contained hundreds of ultra-heavy ions (UH, mass >78 amu) whereas previous observations at 1 au have shown only an occasional count or two. The event of 2023 April 8 observed from 0.29 au fortuitously had very low ambient activity, making it possible to observe spectra from the 3 He acceleration mechanism without contamination, revealing extremely low H and 4 He intensities arriving simultaneously with other ions observed in typical 3 He-rich events. Taken together with previous studies we believe these data show that 3 He-rich events have a single acceleration mechanism that is responsible for the unique abundance features of 3 He, heavy ions, and UH ions. Considering the acceleration model of Roth and Temerin (1997) that heats the ions over a broad range of gyrofrequencies away from those damped by H and 4 He, we calculate reasonable fits to the observed abundances O-Fe. A key result is that high values of, e.g., Fe/O typical of such events is not due to preferential Fe heating, but on the contrary is due mainly to the depletion of O which at elevated temperatures has a charge-to-mass ratio in the region of the waves damped by 4He. The model also naturally incorporates features of high ionization states and neutron-rich isotope enhancements that have been long-standing puzzles in observations of this type of flare.

Solar flares↗

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994: Mesoscale Model Simulations - Part 2

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Tao, Wei Kuo↗

Snowfall in the Northern Great Lakes: Lessons Learned from a Multisensor Observatory

A multisensor snowfall observational suite has been deployed at the Marquette, Michigan, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (KMQT) since 2014. Micro Rain Radar (MRR; profiling radar), Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP; snow particle imager), and ancillary ground-based meteorological observations illustrate the unique capabilities of these combined instruments to document radar and concomitant microphysical properties associated with northern Great Lakes snowfall regimes. Lake-effect, lake-orographic, and transition event case studies are presented that illustrate the variety of snowfall events that occur at KMQT. Case studies and multiyear analyses reveal the ubiquity of snowfall produced by shallow events. These shallow snowfall features and their distinctive microphysical fingerprints are often difficult to discern with conventional remote sensing instruments, thus highlighting the scientific and potential operational value of MRR and PIP observations. The importance of near-surface lake-orographic snowfall enhancement processes in extreme snowfall events and regime-dependent snow particle microphysical variability controlled by regime and environmental factors are also highlighted.

Lake effects↗

The Quantum Condition Space

Abstract The fundamental properties of quantum physics are exploited to evaluate event probabilities with projection measurements. Next, to study what events can be specified by quantum methods, the concept of the condition space is introduced, which is found to be the dual space of the classical outcome space of bit strings. Like the classical outcome space generates the quantum state space, the condition space generates the quantum condition space being the central idea of this work. The quantum condition space permits the existence of entangled conditions having no classical equivalent. In addition, the quantum condition space is related to the quantum state space by a Fourier transform guaranteed by the Pontryagin duality, and therefore an entropic uncertainty principle can be defined. The quantum condition space offers a novel perspective of understanding quantum states with the duality picture. Furthermore, the quantum conditions have physical meanings and realizations of their own and thus may be studied for purposes beyond the original motivation of characterizing events for probability evaluation. Finally, the relation between the condition space and quantum circuits provides insights into how quantum states are collectively modified by quantum gates, which may lead to deeper understanding of the complexity of quantum circuits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Scientific requirements for space science data systems

In the 1990's space plasma physics studies will increasingly involve correlative analysis of observations from multiple instruments and multiple spacecraft. The solar terrestrial physics missions in the 1990's will be designed around simultaneous observations from spacecraft monitoring the solar wind, the polar magnetosphere and the near and distant magnetotail. Within these regions, clusters of spacecraft flying in formation will increasingly involve comparative magnetospheric studies. No single lab will have the expertise to process and analyze all of the different types of data so the data repositories will be distributed. Catalog and browse systems will be required to help select events for study. Data compression techniques may be useful in designing the data bases used for selecting events for study. Data compression onboard the spacecraft will be necessary, since instrument data rates will be much larger than available telemetry rates. However, considerable care will be necessary to avoid losing valuable data when applying data compression algorithms.

Walker, Raymond J.↗