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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Climate and Extreme Weather Events in the Greater New York Area

The goal of this project is to create a framework for modeling extreme events using climate information for risk assessment in the Greater New York City (NYC) region. The central research question we addressed was how best can we use information from historical climate data and numerical models of the climate system to estimate changing risks of rainfall extremes at specific locations – starting with the NYC region as a testbed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

Fairweather, Ian↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal variability of tritium in precipitation within South Africa and it's bearing on hydrological studies

Tritium, the radioactive isotope of hydrogen, has been used to understand groundwater recharge processes for decades. The current variation of tritium in the atmosphere is largely attributed to stratospheric production and fall out rates as well as global circulation phenomena controlling the hydrological cycle. Global controls on the variability in atmospheric tritium activity are poorly suited to explain local variation and tritium activities in precipitation are often assumed to be uniform over both local and regional catchments and watersheds. This assumption can result in both over and under estimation of modern recharge within an aquifer when using tritium as the recharge proxy. In order to minimize the inherent prediction residuals associated with tritium based recharge investigations, the variability of tritium in precipitation was modelled from 127 spatial precipitation samples taken over a two year period, combined with a 76 precipitation sample group-set taken over a one year period in a single location. Precipitation events were traced backward in time, from the point of collection, using HYSPLIT modelling to ascertain the origins of moisture content as well as the altitudes of moisture origin reached along the particle track. Tritium activities, collected over a one year period in Paarl, range from 0.45 to 4.16 TU and have a mean of 1.59 TU. Spatial storm events in the Western Cape in 2017 and 2018 had a range from 0 to 2.2 and 0.37 to 3.27 TU, respectively, with mean activities of 1.18 (n = 34) and 1.25 TU (n = 32). Both storm events had similar tritium variability (σ = 0.5 n = 35 and 0.48 n = 32). Regional precipitation events had the largest range of tritium activities (0.55–12.2 TU). Although not all tritium activities can be explained by interrogating the water mass origin, this study suggests that approximately 90% of events can be completely or partially attributed to the origin of the water mass. The variability of tritium, both spatially and temporally, was higher than expected, confirming that when uniform tritium inputs are used, the groundwater system would provide inaccurate modern recharge estimates. Higher spatial resolution of tritium variation in precipitation for a particular region will improve our ability to relate tritium activities in groundwater to local precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Kmt-2022-Blg-0440lb: A New q < 10 −4 Microlensing Planet With the Central-Resonant Caustic Degeneracy Broken

We present the observations and analysis of a high-magnification microlensing planetary event, KMT-2022-BLG-0440, for which the weak and short-lived planetary signal was covered by both the KMTNet survey and follow-up observations. The binary-lens models with a central caustic provide the best fits, with a planet/host mass ratio, q = 0.75–1.00 ×10 −4 at 1 σ. The binary-lens models with a resonant caustic and a brown-dwarf mass ratio are both excluded by ∆χ 2 > 70. The binary-source model can fit the anomaly well but is rejected by the ‘colour argument’ on the second source. From Bayesian analyses, it is estimated that the host star is likely a K or M dwarf located in the Galactic disc, the planet probably has a Neptune-mass, and the projected planet-host separation is 1.9 +0.6 −0.7 or 4.6 +1.4 −1.7 au, subject to the close/wide de generac y. This is the third q < 10 −4 planet from a high-magnification planetary signal ( A ≳ 65). Together with another such planet, KMT-2021-BLG-0171Lb, the ongoing follow-up program for the KMTNet high-magnification events has demonstrated its ability to detect high-magnification planetary signals for q < 10 −4 planets, which are challenging for the current microlensing surveys.

planets and satellites: detection↗
NASA NTRS2005

Common Cause Case Study: An Estimated Probability of Four Solid Rocket Booster Hold-down Post Stud Hang-ups

Until Solid Rocket Motor ignition, the Space Shuttle is mated to the Mobil Launch Platform in part via eight (8) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) hold-down bolts. The bolts are fractured using redundant pyrotechnics, and are designed to drop through a hold-down post on the Mobile Launch Platform before the Space Shuttle begins movement. The Space Shuttle program has experienced numerous failures where a bolt has "hung-up." That is, it did not clear the hold-down post before liftoff and was caught by the SRBs. This places an additional structural load on the vehicle that was not included in the original certification requirements. The Space Shuttle is currently being certified to withstand the loads induced by up to three (3) of eight (8) SRB hold-down post studs experiencing a "hang-up." The results af loads analyses performed for four (4) stud-hang ups indicate that the internal vehicle loads exceed current structural certification limits at several locations. To determine the risk to the vehicle from four (4) stud hang-ups, the likelihood of the scenario occurring must first be evaluated. Prior to the analysis discussed in this paper, the likelihood of occurrence had been estimated assuming that the stud hang-ups were completely independent events. That is, it was assumed that no common causes or factors existed between the individual stud hang-up events. A review of the data associated with the hang-up events, showed that a common factor (timing skew) was present. This paper summarizes a revised likelihood evaluation performed for the four (4) stud hang-ups case considering that there are common factors associated with the stud hang-ups. The results show that explicitly (i.e. not using standard common cause methodologies such as beta factor or Multiple Greek Letter modeling) taking into account the common factor of timing skew results in an increase in the estimated likelihood of four (4) stud hang-ups of an order of magnitude over the independent failure case.

Cross, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2005

Common Cause Case Study: An Estimated Probability of Four Solid Rocket Booster Hold-Down Post Stud Hang-ups

Until Solid Rocket Motor ignition, the Space Shuttle is mated to the Mobil Launch Platform in part via eight (8) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) hold-down bolts. The bolts are fractured using redundant pyrotechnics, and are designed to drop through a hold-down post on the Mobile Launch Platform before the Space Shuttle begins movement. The Space Shuttle program has experienced numerous failures where a bolt has hung up. That is, it did not clear the hold-down post before liftoff and was caught by the SRBs. This places an additional structural load on the vehicle that was not included in the original certification requirements. The Space Shuttle is currently being certified to withstand the loads induced by up to three (3) of eight (8) SRB hold-down experiencing a "hang-up". The results of loads analyses performed for (4) stud hang-ups indicate that the internal vehicle loads exceed current structural certification limits at several locations. To determine the risk to the vehicle from four (4) stud hang-ups, the likelihood of the scenario occurring must first be evaluated. Prior to the analysis discussed in this paper, the likelihood of occurrence had been estimated assuming that the stud hang-ups were completely independent events. That is, it was assumed that no common causes or factors existed between the individual stud hang-up events. A review of the data associated with the hang-up events, showed that a common factor (timing skew) was present. This paper summarizes a revised likelihood evaluation performed for the four (4) stud hang-ups case considering that there are common factors associated with the stud hang-ups. The results show that explicitly (i.e. not using standard common cause methodologies such as beta factor or Multiple Greek Letter modeling) taking into account the common factor of timing skew results in an increase in the estimated likelihood of four (4) stud hang-ups of an order of magnitude over the independent failure case.

Cross, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2006

Small-Scale Gravity Waves in ER-2 MMS/MTP Wind and Temperature Measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE

Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs) at the aircraft's flight level (typically approximately 20 km altitude). For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform) was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of approximately 5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, approximately 20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus cloud models.

Wang, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS1972

Water vapor, whence comest thou.

During a 14-hour period on Mar. 7, 1971, the Apollo 14 ALSEP suprathermal ion detector experiment (SIDE) observed an intense, prolonged series of bursts of 48.6-eV ions at the lunar surface. The SIDE mass analyzer showed the mass per unit charge of these ions to be characteristic of water vapor if singly ionized. The event was also observed by the SIDE total ion detectors (TIDs) at the Apollo 14 site and at Apollo 12 (located 183 km to the west). The TID data from SIDE 14 indicate that the energy spectrum was narrower than the 20-eV interval between energy channels. Ion spectra due to the LM exhaust gases are shown to be readily identified by the SIDE and are distinctly different in character from the spectra obtained on March 7. Detailed consideration of other possible sources of water, including the Apollo 14 CSM, leads to the conclusion that the water vapor did not come from a man-made source. Also, it is estimated that the event may have involved a quantity of water much greater than that which has been artificially introduced into the lunar environment. Consequently, it appears to be of lunar origin.

Freeman, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The location of the particle acceleration region in the 1 September 1971 solar cosmic ray event

A numerical model of interplanetary propagation is used to reconstruct the shape of particle spectra near the sun shortly after release, from the proton and electron fluxes observed at 1 AU after the solar cosmic-ray event of September 1, 1971. A calculation of the spectral changes that would be produced by collisional energy losses is employed to estimate the amount of matter through which the particles passed, the height at which they were accelerated, and, for the proton, the temperature of the plasma. A temperature of about 2.4 million K in the proton acceleration region is obtained, along with a column density of material traversed equal to about 140 micrograms/sq cm for the protons and a column density of less than 4 micrograms/sq cm for the electrons. These results are shown to imply proton acceleration near the base of the corona and electron acceleration at a height greater than about 1 solar radius.

Mcguire, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Gamma-ray bursts from remnant neutron star disks

The consequences of a disk of matter orbiting an old neutron star are examined. When the inner edge of the disk approaches close to the star, due to internal viscous drag, runaway ionization of the disk occurs and the resulting plasma is precipitated to the surface of the neutron star, thereby producing a gamma-ray burst. Rough numerical estimates of the occurrence rate are given and found to be consistent with gamma-ray burst observations. The estimates indicate that energies of 10 to the 39th ergs or more could be released with rise times as fast as 0.3 ms. Consideration is given to explanations of the March 5, 1979 event (Cline et al., 1980). Some possible observational searches for optical or IR emission from such disks at the locations of known burst sources and pulsars are discussed.

Michel, F. C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate Over Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Observations

Over tropical land regions, rain rate maxima in mesoscale convective systems revealed by the Precipitation Radar (PR) flown on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are found to correspond to thunderstorms, i.e., Cbs. These Cbs are reflected as minima in the 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observed by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer. Because the magnitude of TMI observations do not discriminate satisfactorily convective and stratiform rain, we developed here a different TMI discrimination method. In this method, two types of Cbs, strong and weak, are inferred from the Laplacian of T85 at minima. Then, to retrieve rain rate, where T85 is less than 270 K, a weak (background) rain rate is deduced using T85 observations. Furthermore, over a circular area of 10 km radius centered at the location of each T85 minimum, an additional Cb component of rain rate is added to the background rain rate. This Cb component of rain rate is estimated with the help of (T19-T37) and T85 observations. Initially, our algorithm is calibrated with the PR rain rate measurements from 20 MCS rain events. After calibration, this method is applied to TMI data taken from several tropical land regions. With the help of the PR observations, we show that the spatial distribution and intensity of rain rate over land estimated from our algorithm are better than those given by the current TMI-Version-5 Algorithm. For this reason, our algorithm may be used to improve the current state of rain retrievals on land.

Prabhakara, C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor: Safety Design Approach

Deployment Objectives Flexibly co-locate with new industry users of nuclear energy Steam and electric cogeneration applications Direct process heat with temperature ranges from 700°C to 950°C Enabling Requirements Meet regulatory dose limits at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) 25 rem Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) for duration of the release from 10 CFR 50.34 (10 CFR 52.79) at Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) for design basis accidents EAB is estimated approximately 400 meters from the modular HTGR plant (to support co-location with industrial facilities) Meet safety goals for cumulative individual risk for normal and off-normal operation Design goal: meet EPA Protective Action Guides (PAGs) at EAB 1 rem TEDE for sheltering Design basis and beyond design basis events are considered Realistically evaluated at the EAB Emergency planning and protection

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2016-BLG-1227L: A Wide-separation Planet from a Very Short-timescale Microlensing Event

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-1227. The light curve of this short-duration event appears to be a single-lens event affected by severe finite-source effects. Analysis of the light curve based on a single-lens single-source (1L1S) model yields very small values of the event timescale, t{sub E}∼3.5 days, and the angular Einstein radius, θ{sub E}∼0.009 mas, making the lens a candidate of a free-floating planet. Close inspection reveals that the 1L1S solution leaves small residuals with an amplitude of ΔI ≲ 0.03 mag. We find that the residuals are explained by the existence of an additional widely separated heavier lens component, indicating that the lens is a wide-separation planetary system rather than a free-floating planet. From Bayesian analysis, it is estimated that the planet has a mass of M{sub p}=0.79{sub −0.39}{sup +1.30} M{sub J} and it is orbiting a low-mass host star with a mass of M{sub host}=0.10{sub −0.05}{sup +0.17} M{sub ⊙} located with a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=3.4{sub −1.0}{sup +2.1} au. The planetary system is located in the Galactic bulge with a line-of-sight separation from the source star of D{sub LS}=1.21{sub −0.63}{sup +0.96} kpc. The event shows that there is a range of deviations in the signatures of host stars for apparently isolated planetary lensing events and that it is possible to identify a host even when a deviation is subtle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional ‘‘grid-by-grid analysis,’’ the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG’s accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for ‘‘hybrid’’ data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.

extreme events↗