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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Use of an Alternative Conceptual Model of Vadose Zone Heterogeneity to Evaluate Past Tank Leaks and Other Unplanned Releases within a Tank Farm at the Hanford Site - 20061

Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) requested that U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Office of River Protection (ORP) consider an evaluation of effects of fine-grained thin sediment layers on transport with a separate alternative conceptual model in its evaluation of the potential impact of tank leaks and other unplanned releases within the tank farm at the Hanford Site. For this alternative model, Ecology recommended that the model be developed based on the general framework of fine-grained units identified by a stakeholder group in their interpretations of variability in moisture content data collected in the vicinity of Waste Management Area (WMA) C. In discussions with DOE-ORP, Ecology acknowledged that the underlying data and interpretations of the occurrence and lateral continuity of the fine-grained thin layers identified by a stakeholder group are uncertain. However, DOE-ORP agreed to Ecology's recommendation and has provided support for the requested evaluation that involved development of an alternative model based on the general framework of the unpublished report by the stakeholder. DOE-ORP considered this evaluation to be a hypothetical evaluation of vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C. General observations from the range of simulation cases examined in the evaluation of the effects of hypothetical vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C are as follows. - The movement of the center of mass of the simulated plumes was generally vertically downward below the source for all simulations, including those that incorporated the hypothetical fine-grained units. - All simulations that incorporated hypothetical heterogeneity produced additional plume spreading over what was produced in simulations using Equivalent Homogeneous Media (EHM) model(s)a. The spreading resulted in a broadening of the fringes of the plume, resulting in a wider region of low concentration, but lower peak concentrations associated with the center of mass of the plume. - Simulations that used the silty-sand hydraulic properties, suggested by Ecology for the hypothetical fine-grained units, generally produced similar spreading and slightly lower peak mass flux at the water table when compared to the EHM modeling results. a The EHM-based models used at WMA C do not explicitly include small-scale fine-grained heterogeneities used in the model advocated by Ecology. - Simulations that used the silty-sand hydraulic properties, suggested by Ecology for the hypothetical fine-grained units, generally produced less spreading and an earlier arrival of mass flux at the water table when compared to the use of another set of hydraulic properties from a silty-sand sample collected at a nearby disposal facility. - The EHM representation of the vadose zone generally produced higher peak mass flux and an earlier occurrence of peak fluxes at the water table compared to all analyses incorporating additional hypothetical heterogeneity. Results of this alternative model evaluation of past leaks provided some insight into the transport effects of vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C that helped resolve Ecology's comments and issues related to the effects of vadose zone heterogeneities on past leaks and losses from the WMA C tank farms area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Status of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) has continued its work generating evaluations of new and historical benchmark experiments since the last update to the nuclear criticality safety (NCS) community at the 12th International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Conference held in 2023. One additional version of the ICSBEP Handbook has been published since that update, and the Technical Review Group (TRG) held two in-person meetings to review and approve additional benchmarks. The 2022 and 2023 editions of the handbook were combined into one release (published in November 2024) and contained 13 new evaluations with 46 different configurations and two major revisions to existing evaluations. The 2024 version of the handbook, currently under publication review, will contain two new evaluations with 15 new configurations and one major revision to HEU-MET-FAST-028, the evaluation of Flattop with a uranium core. The ICSBEP TRG met again in person in April 2025 to review benchmarks for the 2025 ICSBEP Handbook and final comment resolution is currently ongoing. Many of the new benchmarks represent contemporaneous experiments that have been specifically optimized to provide validation cases relevant to the NCS community. One major area of focus for new critical experiments is to target the sparsely populated intermediate energy (or resonance) region. Another focus of many of the new benchmarks is to provide experiments sensitive to different materials, such as chlorine, hafnium, tantalum, titanium, molybdenum, chromium, and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA, or Lucite). The ICSBEP continues to deliver high-quality, peer reviewed evaluations of integral experiments relevant to the nuclear data community.

HEU-MET-FAST-028↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolved Resonance Evaluation for Neutron Interactions with 103 Rh up to 8 keV

A neutron cross-section evaluation for the n + 103 Rh reaction in the resolved resonance region was carried out in the energy range 10−5 eV to 8 keV encompassing thermal energy at 0.0253 eV. The scope of this work is to generate resonance parameters and resonance parameter covariances based on the Reich-Moore reduced R-matrix formalism using the code SAMMY. Some features of the new evaluation are the inclusion of high-resolution capture data in the SAMMY evaluation process and the extension of the resolved resonance range from 4 to 8 keV. Furthermore, the evaluation employs more accurate resonance parameter representation by exploring the use of the LRF = 7 ENDF feature and also the use of the LCOMP = 2 compact format for resonance parameter covariance representation. Included in the SAMMY evaluation are transmission data, capture cross-section data, and neutron scattering length information. Thermal cross-section values listed in the literature, as well as capture resonance integrals, were also incorporated into the evaluation process.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

How to select distracted driving countermeasures evaluation metrics: A systematic review

While there are numerous performance metrics that have been developed for the evaluation of distracted driving prevention programs, there is little information on how to select them depending on the requirements and/or objectives of the study. Here, this paper describes a systematic literature review that was conducted on the metrics for evaluating distracted driving countermeasures in order to bridge this research gap. A summary of the evaluation metrics used for the existing distracted driving countermeasures was provided. Guidance for choosing an evaluation measure was provided by analyzing the metrics from the perspectives of functionality, spatial-temporal dimension, and equity. Three examples of distracted driving countermeasure evaluation processes were thoroughly reviewed in order to offer insight into metric selection and measurement. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by discussing the implications for policy on how to enhance the thoroughness and accuracy of the evaluation of distracted driving countermeasures. Analysis from multiple angles, the development of data collection tools and direct behavior indicators, taking into account temporal dimensions, and equity considerations, are proposed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing the Theory of Nuclear Data Evaluations [Abstract]

We present recent advances in the R-matrix formalism as well as the Bayesian evaluation framework for improved nuclear data evaluations. The advances in the R matrix formalism include: 1) direct processes, 2) doorway, as well as multistep, processes, and 3) various forms of the Reich-Moore approximation for eliminated capture channels. Furthermore, to address unreasonably small posterior uncertainties often encountered in nuclear data evaluations of large data sets using the conventional form of the Bayes’ theorem, we introduce imperfections (of the data or the model) as a formal evaluation tool for taming the evaluated uncertainties in harmony with Bayes’ theorem. These theoretical advances were motivated by the nuclear data evaluations of differential resolved resonance cross section data using the code SAMMY, as well as the integral benchmark experiments using the SCALE code system, being performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program. Some pedagogical applications of the new formalism, as well as a snapshot of the SAMMY modernization efforts, will be presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Saccadic Component Measure on Smooth Pursuit Tests

ABSTRACT Introduction Despite the advancement of eye-tracking technology for smooth pursuit (SP) eye movement evaluation, qualitative observation offers much information that is not captured by computers; hence, both objective and qualitative information should be utilized to evaluate SP. This study examined the consistency among our clinicians when evaluating SP using normal (N), grossly normal (GN), mildly abnormal (MA), and abnormal (AB) as classifications. We then evaluated the effect of combining GN and MA into a single subclinical (SUBC) category. We also evaluated the computerized percent saccade (PS) metric by determining its sensitivity and specificity in classifying SP. Materials and Methods Retrospective horizontal and vertical SP test videos and numerical data for 70 participants were obtained from the Neuro Kinetics Neuro-Otologic Test Center and de-identified. From this, eye-tracking videos, time plots of eye-tracking positional data, and tables of SP eye-tracking performance data were generated for 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 Hz in both horizontal and vertical planes, totaling 6 tests per subject. Three clinicians rated each subject’s SP performance as N, GN, MA, or AB for a total of 6 ratings (3 frequencies, horizontal and vertical). This process was repeated using N, SUBC, and AB as rating categories. Clinicians also provided an overall SP rating for each plane as follows: AB if the results were abnormal for 2 or more frequencies tested. Alternatively, if fewer than 2 frequencies presented with a rating of AB, then an overall rating of MA, GN, or N was determined at the respective clinician’s discretion. Results When the 3 clinicians were tasked with classifying SP videos using 4 clinical categories, fair overall agreement was demonstrated. However, when MA and GN categories were combined into an SUBC category, the overall agreement for the 3 clinicians improved slightly for both horizontal SP (HSP) and vertical SP (VSP). This pattern of agreement did not differ considerably when comparing HSP versus VSP, and good consistency and reliability was observed across clinicians. Again, inter-rater consistency was smaller for VSP versus HSP despite the reduction in clinical categories. Cut-off values were generated for the PS metric and demonstrated good specificity and sensitivity when they were exceeded for 2 or more frequencies in a particular plane when evaluating a subject’s SP test. Conclusions

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors: Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Evaluation of Defense-in-Depth Adequacy

This document supports the work contained in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) 18-04 “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Technology Inclusive Guidance for Advanced Reactor Licensing Basis Development” Revision 0. NEI 18-04 presents a modern, technology-inclusive, risk-informed, and performance-based (TI-RIPB) process for selection of Licensing Basis Events (LBEs); safety classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and associated risk-informed special treatments; and determination of defense-in-depth (DID) adequacy for non-LWRs. The NEI guidance document provides one acceptable means for addressing the aforementioned topics as part of demonstrating a specific design provides reasonable assurance of adequate radiological protection. This report provides the framework and associated methodology guidelines and discussion for establishing, then evaluating, confirming, and documenting the adequacy of defense-in-depth (DID) for advanced non-light-water reactor technologies. It was developed as part of the Licensing Modernization Project led by Southern Company and cost-shared by the United States Department of Energy and has benefited from considerable NRC formal reviews and public workshops. The methodology converts the DID philosophy into a structured process that is implementable, embraces existing United States and international definitions and philosophies of DID that set the foundation for the process. It builds on the DID framework developed in the Department of Energy Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project and earlier works on this subject. The approach to establishing DID adequacy involves the incorporation of DID attributes into the plant capabilities and programmatic elements of DID. The integrated evaluation of DID adequacy includes both quantitative elements to incorporate risk-informed and performance-based (RIPB) considerations and qualitative elements that address uncertainties and limitations in the quantitative models and supporting data. Demonstration of DID adequacy ensures that there are multiple layers of defense for risk-significant challenges to the design and that the plant capabilities and programs that support each layer are provided in a manner that minimizes dependencies among these layers. The focus of this report is assurance of DID adequacy with respect to protection of the public from radiological exposures resulting from accidental releases of radioactive material. While other hazards are not specifically addressed, this methodology is expected to be beneficial for determining DID adequacy for them as well. Risk-informed evaluation of DID considers the integrated performance of all plant SSCs and associated programs to manage daily operational activities, transients, and accidents, including the evaluation of strategies for accident prevention and mitigation. The RIPB LBE scenario methodology used in this evaluation defines the challenges to the plant safety features included in the plant design basis and beyond, and the scope of all deterministic and probabilistic safety evaluations. By examining event sequences across the whole spectrum of LBEs, a systematic assessment of DID can be accomplished.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Assessment of Evaluation Practices of Low- And Moderate-Income Solar Programs

As concerns about social equity and clean energy rise, state and local governments, utilities, and non-profit organizations are offering at least 41 active programs in 21 states to promote solar adoption as a way to reduce energy bills for low- and moderate-income (LMI) households while meeting other policy goals such as job creation and clean energy generation. A new study from Berkeley Lab looks at how those programs are being evaluated. The report provides background on how they seek to address LMI household energy burdens and gives a brief discussion of the art and science of program evaluation, drawn from decades of experience in energy efficiency programs. It then turns to how LMI solar programs are currently being evaluated, highlighting trends among evaluation methods, metrics tracked, and best practices employed. A few programs are explored in more depth to illustrate notable practices that could be applied to other program evaluations. These LMI solar programs are mostly young, operate on tight budgets, and vary considerably in their design and stated goals. Consequently, well-designed program evaluation is critical to better understand what works, what could be improved, and how to maximize program impacts under budget constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Well Stimulation Treatment in California: Evaluation of Disclosure Data, May 2015 – October 2019

In this document, disclosure data from 1,228 well stimulations occurring May 2015 to October 2019 in California are evaluated. This evaluation updates a previous study that was based on 618 well stimulations occurring May 2015 to June 2016 (Stringfellow, W.T., Camarillo, M.K., and Jordan, P. 2017, Status of Well Stimulation in California Since Implementation of SB-4 Regulations, Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA). While the goal of the previous study was to provide a summary of information obtained since passage of California Senate Bill No. 4—Oil and Gas, the goal of the current evaluation is to provide a basis for studying chemical indicators that could potentially be used to detect aquifer contamination. We evaluate chemical indicators is a separate document using the data contained herein as well as data from monitoring wells located within oil fields. Compared with the data used by Stringfellow et al. 2017, the current evaluation is based on a more diverse data set. While the previous study contained data for only two oil fields with more than 30 well stimulations, the current data set contains four oil fields with more than 30 well stimulations, making these data more ideal for comparisons using statistical tests. More producers and a new oil field, Buena Vista Nose, are represented in the current data set. Some well stimulation practices remain relatively unchanged since the previous study. Well stimulation is mostly occurring in Kern County with the exception of a single well stimulation in Orange County. Almost all well stimulations are hydraulic fracturing. The current data set contains two acid fracturing treatments and one matrix acidizing treatment. The median number of chemicals added per well stimulation—excluding water and proppant—was previously 21; the number in the expanded data set is 20. Median water added per well stimulation was previously 89,000 gallons and is now 98,000 gallons. While this water use represents a 10% increase, water use for hydraulic fracturing in California is still lower than water use in other oil and gas fields. Chemical formulations appear to have shifted since the previous study. This shift may be related to a change in the predominant service company. We identified 26 chemicals for which the frequency of use has changed by more than 30%. The total number of chemicals used has also expanded. Previously, 178 unique chemicals were identified as being added to well stimulation fluids. The total number of unique chemicals is now 205. Analytical data available for base and recovered fluids has expanded. The number of base fluid samples has increased from 12 to 35 and the number of recovered fluid samples has increased from 1,078 to 2,166. The expanded data set is more ideal for an evaluation of indicator chemicals and comparisons across different formations. The analytical data for recovered fluid samples indicates that many ions, radioactive constituents, and organics are consistently observed, making these chemicals ideal for consideration as potential indicators of aquifer contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Efficiency and Performance Evaluation of Self-Contained, Medium Temperature, Reach-In Refrigerated Display Cases

This project was part of an effort by Commonwealth Edison Company (ComEd) to evaluate the energy and peak demand saving potential of emerging technologies in the Chicago area. This document focuses on the assessment of energy-efficient, medium-temperature, self-contained refrigerated display cases utilizing environmentally friendly refrigerants. The results of this evaluation will be considered by CLEAResult to develop a new energy efficiency rebate measure for ComEd's incentive programs. This rebate measure will become an addition to the Technical Reference Manual (TRM). In 2016, the United Nations passed the Kigali Montreal Protocol Amendment which placed restrictions on certain types of refrigerants. In compliance with this amendment, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) placed a ban on the manufacture of refrigeration systems using hydrofluorocarbons including R134a starting in January 2020. Although the ban has halted manufacture, the EPA continues to allow the use of these refrigerants. Therefore, it is critical to provide incentives for replacing these refrigerants with other environmentally friendly and energy-efficient alternatives. The energy-efficient refrigerator cases evaluated here (referred to as EE Case A and B) contain environmentally-friendly refrigerants in compliance with the EPA hydrofluorocarbon ban. These consist of natural refrigerant propane (R290), and HFC drop-in hydrofluoroolefin R513a, respectively. These cases also contain other energy-efficient components including efficient lighting, more robust evaporator and condenser fans and different-sized heat exchangers. EE Case A is also built with materials that better insulate the case, which improves energy efficiency. To ascertain the energy efficiency contribution of these design components, the consumption of the evaporator and condenser fan motors, compressor, and lighting/controller were evaluated individually. The medium-temperature, self-contained reach-in refrigerated display case was selected due to its widespread use in convenience stores and small supermarkets. Self-contained refrigeration has also seen increased use in restaurants due to curbside pickup during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this study, the refrigerated display cases' performance was evaluated in a controlled environmental chamber at representative indoor dry-bulb and humidity conditions found in supermarkets within ComEd's service territory climate zone. The test method used in this project was foundationally inspired by the ANSI/ASHRAE 72-2018 method of testing. However, modifications to the ANSI/ASHRAE test methodology were implemented to better represent customer operation of the units. In addition to the indoor supermarket conditions, the cases were also evaluated at the "upper target," or environmental conditions used in ANSI/ASHRAE 72-2018. The case total power and case components were metered to obtain their daily power (kW) and energy consumption(kWh). The cases were filled with thermal filler mass to replicate thermal mass of product loading. Additionally, product simulators were used to provide product temperature information. Door actuators were mounted to each of the cases' three doors to replicate regular door openings and effects of shopper traffic.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Reaction Data Evaluations for Nuclear Applications Physics and modeling [Slides]

This presentation provides an evaluation workflow scheme for the project. It also discusses nuclear data libraries, including an overview of worldwide nuclear data libraries and current funding agencies. The presentation also discusses the theoretical framework commonly used in the evaluated work, including the R-matrix theory (≈ up to a few keVs for heavy nuclei) as well as pre-equilibrium (PE) and Hauser-Feshbach (HF) theory (⪆1 MeV for medium/heavy nuclei). Inclusion of experimental effects are also discussed. Examples of evaluated work, including theory, experiments, and applications are discussed, specifically n+ 28,29,30 Si evaluation (direct capture component), n+ 53 Cr evaluation (strong multiple scattering effects), n+ 239 Pu(n,γf) reaction (fluctuations in neutron multiplicities), and α+ 17,18 O evaluations (emerging neutron spectra).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting

The Solar Forecast Arbiter is an open-source evaluation framework for solar forecasting. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. The Solar Forecast Arbiter addresses stakeholder-informed use cases including evaluation of forecast skill, comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, and evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework includes a data validation toolkit, reference data sources, data privacy protocols, and benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Reports and metrics communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for qualitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts. The Solar Forecast Arbiter is designed to support all solar forecasting stakeholders, including Solar Forecasting 2 Topic Area 2 and Topic Area 3 teams.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the 238 U PFNS Including Chi-Nu Experimental Data

This report documents an evaluation of 238 U prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) which is a deliverable for a FY2024 Q4 NCSP (Nuclear Criticality Safety Program) milestone. This evaluation is new; its prior input is based on extended Los Alamos and exciton models implemented in the code CoH. Experimental covariances were estimated for five experimental data sets. One of these data sets that was measured by the Chi-Nu team of LANL and LLNL. It covers the 238 U PFNS for continuous incident-neutron energies of 1–20 MeV and outgoing-neutron energies from 10 keV– 10 MeV with high precision. Contrary to Chi-Nu data, previous data sets were measured in a limited energy range. The resulting evaluated data correspond well to the experimental PFNS taken into account for the evaluation. The evaluated PFNS also produce average mean energies in agreement with associated Chi-Nu data. If one uses the new evaluated data to predict the neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of the Flattop, Flattop-Pu and BigTen ICSBEP critical assemblies (which all have thick reflectors with high percentages of 238 U), the differences of simulated values compared to those using ENDF/B-VIII.1β3 is modest (less than 25 pcm). In addition to that, the new PFNS predict on average 238 U LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra slightly better than ENDF/BVIIII.0 and ENDF/B-VIII.1β3 PFNS. The differences are, however, well within the experimental uncertainties.

238U↗
DOE OSTI2023

A computational modeling framework for pre-clinical evaluation of cardiac mapping systems

There are a variety of difficulties in evaluating clinical cardiac mapping systems, most notably the inability to record the transmembrane potential throughout the entire heart during patient procedures which prevents the comparison to a relevant “gold standard”. Cardiac mapping systems are comprised of hardware and software elements including sophisticated mathematical algorithms, both of which continue to undergo rapid innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop a computational modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cardiac mapping systems. The framework enables rigorous evaluation of a mapping system’s ability to localize and characterize (i.e., focal or reentrant) arrhythmogenic sources in the heart. The main component of our tool is a library of computer simulations of various dynamic patterns throughout the entire heart in which the type and location of the arrhythmogenic sources are known. Our framework allows for performance evaluation for various electrode configurations, heart geometries, arrhythmias, and electrogram noise levels and involves blind comparison of mapping systems against a “silver standard” comprised of computer simulations in which the precise transmembrane potential patterns throughout the heart are known. A feasibility study was performed using simulations of patterns in the human left atria and three hypothetical virtual catheter electrode arrays. Activation times (AcT) and patterns (AcP) were computed for three virtual electrode arrays: two basket arrays with good and poor contact and one high-resolution grid with uniform spacing. The average root mean squared difference of AcTs of electrograms and those of the nearest endocardial action potential was less than 1 ms and therefore appears to be a poor performance metric. In an effort to standardize performance evaluation of mapping systems a novel performance metric is introduced based on the number of AcPs identified correctly and those considered spurious as well as misclassifications of arrhythmia type; spatial and temporal localization accuracy of correctly identified patterns was also quantified. This approach provides a rigorous quantitative analysis of cardiac mapping system performance. Proof of concept of this computational evaluation framework suggests that it could help safeguard that mapping systems perform as expected as well as provide estimates of system accuracy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗