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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Criticality Safety Evaluation Project Development for University of California Berkely Nuclear Criticality Safety Pipeline Course

The Nuclear Criticality Safety Division at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has taken a unique approach to developing criticality safety evaluation topics in support of the University of California Berkeley criticality safety pipeline course. The evaluation topics are designed to go beyond the typical evaluation examples used for many training courses including vault storage and variations on storage arrays. These types of evaluations provide in-depth analysis into the fundamentals of criticality safety and are complex but may be far off from what a new criticality safety engineer may actually be evaluating. To provide more practical examples of criticality safety evaluation topics that are better fit for the knowledge level of a criticality safety engineer in-training, variations of current and future operations and research operations performed at LLNL are used as evaluation topics. Additionally, an emphasis on research is included in all evaluation topics as it allows students to take advantage of the concepts learned in class to apply them for process improvement, engineering equipment that is favorable for criticality safety, and negotiation tactics to work with operations personnel. The process used by LLNL to develop project topics for the pipeline course is provided in this paper. The intent is to provide an alternative technique for training students and potentially younger staff members in criticality safety on developing criticality safety evaluations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of proposed Section III Division 5 Class B rules: Piping example problem

Evaluation of proposed Section III Division 5 Class B rules: Piping example problem to be presented include Z pipe geometry and model problem statement, Z pipe loads and design inputs problem statement, Primary Stress Limit overview, Primary stress limit pseudo yield stress calculation, Primary stress limited factored load procedure, Strain limit evaluation composite load cycle, Strain limit evaluation pseudo yield stress, Strain limit evaluation strain limit criteria and ratcheting check, Creep fatigue damage evaluation overview, Creep fatigue damage evaluation alternating stress calculations, Creep fatigue damage evaluation lower bound stress, Creep fatigue damage evaluation stress relaxation history, Creep fatigue damage evaluation damage fractions, and Recommendations to consider for Z-pipe problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Release of Evaluated 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 235 U from 200 keV to 15 MeV that is a potential release candidate for the upcoming U.S. nuclear data library, ENDF/B-VIII.1. This evaluation had to be re-done from "scratch", as the input to the $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation of the previous library, ENDF/B-VIII.0, was lost. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that this evaluation includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to perform two types of validation for the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$: On the one hand, one can employ evaluated CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data indicating the evaluated 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ are physical. On the other hand, one can validate 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ with respect to integral responses such as fast ICSBEP critical assemblies or LLNL pulsed spheres. LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra are minimally impacted by the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ as these experimental data are shape data and the $\overline{v}_p$ would mostly lead to a change in normalization of the data as the spheres are relatively thin (0.7 and 1.5 mean-free path) and, thus, mostly depend on 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 12-15 MeV. The change in the predicted effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, however, is large compared to values using ENDF/B-VIII.0 and experimental k eff : The average bias is 108 pcm across all studied k eff values versus 12 pcm for ENDF/B-VIII.0. A reasonable performance in simulating keff (mean bias of 14 pcm) can be retained by tweaking 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 3-5 MeV, and combining it with a recent 235 U PFNS evaluation that is also a ENDF/B-VIII.1 release candidate.

235U↗
NASA NTRS1974

Engineering flight and guest pilot evaluation report, phase 2

Prior to the flight evaluation, the two-segment profile capabilities of the DC-8-61 were evaluated and flight procedures were developed in a flight simulator at the UA Flight Training Center in Denver, Colorado. The flight evaluation reported was conducted to determine the validity of the simulation results, further develop the procedures and use of the area navigation system in the terminal area, certify the system for line operation, and obtain evaluations of the system and procedures by a number of pilots from the industry. The full area navigation capabilities of the special equipment installed were developed to provide terminal area guidance for two-segment approaches. The objectives of this evaluation were: (1) perform an engineering flight evaluation sufficient to certify the two-segment system for the six-month in-service evaluation; (2) evaluate the suitability of a modified RNAV system for flying two-segment approaches; and (3) provide evaluation of the two-segment approach by management and line pilots.

Morrison, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

NASA PC software evaluation project

The USL NASA PC software evaluation project is intended to provide a structured framework for facilitating the development of quality NASA PC software products. The project will assist NASA PC development staff to understand the characteristics and functions of NASA PC software products. Based on the results of the project teams' evaluations and recommendations, users can judge the reliability, usability, acceptability, maintainability and customizability of all the PC software products. The objective here is to provide initial, high-level specifications and guidelines for NASA PC software evaluation. The primary tasks to be addressed in this project are as follows: to gain a strong understanding of what software evaluation entails and how to organize a structured software evaluation process; to define a structured methodology for conducting the software evaluation process; to develop a set of PC software evaluation criteria and evaluation rating scales; and to conduct PC software evaluations in accordance with the identified methodology. Communication Packages, Network System Software, Graphics Support Software, Environment Management Software, General Utilities. This report represents one of the 72 attachment reports to the University of Southwestern Louisiana's Final Report on NASA Grant NGT-19-010-900. Accordingly, appropriate care should be taken in using this report out of context of the full Final Report.

Dominick, Wayne D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Towards Reliable Evaluation of Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection Performance

This report describes the results of research into the effects of environment-induced noise on the evaluation process for anomaly detectors in the cyber security domain. This research was conducted during a 10-week summer internship program from the 19th of August, 2012 to the 23rd of August, 2012 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The research performed lies within the larger context of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) Smart Grid cyber security project, a Department of Energy (DoE) funded effort involving the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and the University of Southern California/ Information Sciences Institute. The results of the present effort constitute an important contribution towards building more rigorous evaluation paradigms for anomaly-based intrusion detectors in complex cyber physical systems such as the Smart Grid. Anomaly detection is a key strategy for cyber intrusion detection and operates by identifying deviations from profiles of nominal behavior and are thus conceptually appealing for detecting "novel" attacks. Evaluating the performance of such a detector requires assessing: (a) how well it captures the model of nominal behavior, and (b) how well it detects attacks (deviations from normality). Current evaluation methods produce results that give insufficient insight into the operation of a detector, inevitably resulting in a significantly poor characterization of a detectors performance. In this work, we first describe a preliminary taxonomy of key evaluation constructs that are necessary for establishing rigor in the evaluation regime of an anomaly detector. We then focus on clarifying the impact of the operational environment on the manifestation of attacks in monitored data. We show how dynamic and evolving environments can introduce high variability into the data stream perturbing detector performance. Prior research has focused on understanding the impact of this variability in training data for anomaly detectors, but has ignored variability in the attack signal that will necessarily affect the evaluation results for such detectors. We posit that current evaluation strategies implicitly assume that attacks always manifest in a stable manner; we show that this assumption is wrong. We describe a simple experiment to demonstrate the effects of environmental noise on the manifestation of attacks in data and introduce the notion of attack manifestation stability. Finally, we argue that conclusions about detector performance will be unreliable and incomplete if the stability of attack manifestation is not accounted for in the evaluation strategy.

cyber defense↗
DOE OSTI2025

Re-evaluating the prompt fission neutron spectrum of spontaneously fissioning 252 Cf

The prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) of spontaneously fissioning 252 Cf is a Neutron Data Standards observable. Nearly all fission spectra of actinides were measured relative to it, using efficiencies derived from it, or analyzed with simulations validated by it. The current Standards evaluation was published by W. Mannhart in 1987. It could not be updated because the evaluation input, experimental mean values and covariances, were lost. First, we attempt to reproduce it. However, Mannhart’s evaluation can only be reproduced within its one-σ uncertainties as some of its aspects (e.g., experimental covariances, rejected data points) remain unknown. Therefore, a new evaluation is presented: We revisit all existing experimental 252 Cf(sf) PFNS data, including those published after the release of the current Standards evaluation, and re-estimate associated covariances. The newly evaluated 252 Cf(sf) PFNS differs distinctly from Mannhart’s below 300 keV and extends it to lower and higher outgoing neutron energies (500 eV–25 MeV). The new evaluated uncertainties are larger from 3–9 MeV and smaller otherwise. Spectrum averaged cross sections of importance to the International Reactor Dosimetry and Fusion File community calculated with the new spectrum are close to those calculated with Mannhart’s evaluation and agree with experimental values well within their uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-closure Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluations for Disposition of Criticality Control Overpacks at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository in southern New Mexico that provides for disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes from atomic energy defense activities. The Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) Report, Consideration of Nuclear Criticality When Disposing of Transuranic Waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, addresses nuclear criticality safety based on the projected inventory characteristics for the initial compliance certification application of WIPP in 1996. As the inventory, waste forms, and disposal package designs change, revised or new analyses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability for these configurations within the WIPP safety basis and compliance with 10,000-year post-closure standards of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Saylor and Scaglione evaluated criticality control overpacks (CCOs) in 2017 based on conservative assumptions for post-closure repository structural conditions with resulting effects on containers and container spacing, The Saylor and Scaglione evaluation of CCOs addressed a single waste configuration that represents the Surplus Plutonium Disposition Program’s dilute and dispose waste form and composition. This initial CCO study demonstrated that 50 grams of boron carbide (B 4 C) per CCO is sufficient to ensure post-closure criticality safety based on a well-mixed waste composition, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) subsequently determined that this amount of B 4 C does not require constraints on moisture or plastic present as moderator. The Saylor and Scaglione analysis conservatively assumes repository room closure that eliminates all space between fissile gram equivalent (FGE) 239 Pu masses. The close-packed array was selected based on limited availability of repository salt creep modeling results at that time. In 2019, Brickner provided additional evaluations for pipe overpack containers (POCs), building on the conservative basis provided by Saylor and Scaglione. Brickner’s 2019 analysis made use of new geomechanical data for post-closure spacing that rely on advances in repository modeling as documented in the work by Reedlunn and Bean. This current CCO evaluation for generic waste materials expands on earlier work performed at ORNL and includes evaluation of CCOs across a much broader range of possible waste compositions and geometries. This evaluation is intended to provide input for the required feature, event and process (FEP) screening to determine if post-closure criticality must be included as an event in the 10,000-year regulatory evaluation. As such, the approach to modeling post-closure criticality presented in this report has been coordinated with the Sandia team responsible for FEP screening. The resulting analysis supports disposition of fissile materials in the CCO containing up to 380 FGE 239 Pu and expands conditions acceptable for disposal of fissile material in CCOs. This evaluation builds on the methodology of Saylor and Scaglione and Brickner, using the most recently available geomechanical data for CCO spacing under salt creep compaction scenarios provided by Reedlunn and Bean. The broad range of fissile material configurations analyzed in this report are intended to account for configurations that may occur during the post-closure disposal time period, and it also includes waste configurations that are not physically possible to support analysis of conditions that influence neutron fluence.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improvements of Nuclear Data Evaluations for Lead Isotopes in Support of Next Generation Lead-Cooled Fast Systems

The neutron evaluation of the isotopes that comprise natural lead were undertaken as a part of DOE-NEUP Project #19-16739. The goal of the project was to update the neutron cross sections to account for new differential measurements and incorporate the most up-to-date physics. Shortcomings in the lead cross sections was made known by several independent reports. The work performed here repeated the simulation of all the “benchmark” validation systems and concluded that the major issue is the scattering cross sections in the major lead isotopes above 100 keV. Re-evaluation of 206,207,208 Pb included both the resolved resonance region and fast region evaluations of the cross sections. Combined these regions cover energies from thermal to 20 MeV. The most drastic improvement is the resolved resonance region evaluation of 208 Pb which is now extended from 1.0 to 1.5 MeV. Parameterization of these resonances in the R-matrix provides a superior reconstruction of not only the experimental cross section but also the scattering distributions via the Blatt-Biedenharn formalism. Fast region evaluations of the three major isotopes were done to include new inelastic experimental data from the neutron Time-of-Flight facility at CERN. The culmination of all the changes to the cross section is a drastic improvement in the scattering kernel as shown in Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Quasi-Differential scattering measurements and improved prediction of keff for fast integral experiments. Alongside the new cross sections, new nuclear data covariance (uncertainties) have been computed and are included in the evaluation. Little is changed in the magnitude of the uncertainties but the correlations within the covariance display non-trivial changes. The new evaluations of 206,207,208 Pb have been submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center to be included in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library. While the cross sections have been updated extensively, knowledge and modeling of the cross sections between 1.0 and 3.0 MeV for the isotopes remain a challenge. Most notably is the double differential elastic cross section for 208 Pb and 206 Pb. New quasi-differential measurements for pure samples of these two nuclei would go a long way in reducing compensating errors in the evaluations. Qualitatively, the project has produced a prosperous collaboration between the nuclear data group at RPI with staff scientists at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Naval Nuclear Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Quantitatively this is reflected in seven conference presentations, at least one journal submission, and one doctoral thesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ICSBEP evaluation lessons learned and good practice

This document describes lessons learned during my nearly 20 years of experience in International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) meetings and in the development of several evaluations employing the IPEN/MB-01 reactor. The evaluations cover a wide range of possible configurations at the reactor core of this facility. Most of the evaluations are related to critical configurations, although two of them concern subcritical measurements. Examples of the evaluations submitted and approved for ICSBEP publication are the critical configurations employed in the standard core; critical configurations employing heavy reflectors composed of stainless steel, nickel, and carbon steel; and critical configurations employing the standard fuel rods and fuel rods composed of UO 2 -Gd 2 O 3 , among several others. Additionally, this document addresses good practices for the development of ICSBEP evaluations; the intention is to help beginners who are going to start evaluations for ICSBEP. The sections of the ICSBEP evaluation are described and illustrated with several examples.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Postflight hardware evaluation 360T026 (RSRM-26, STS-47)

The final report for the Clearfield disassembly evaluation and a continuation of the KSC postflight assessment for the 360T026 (STS-47) Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) flight set is provided. All observed hardware conditions were documented on PFOR's and are included in Appendices A, B, and C. Appendices D and E contain the measurements and safety factor data for the nozzle and insulation components. This report, along with the KSC Ten-Day Postflight Hardware Evaluation Report (TWR-64203), represents a summary of the 360T026 hardware evaluation. The as-flown hardware configuration is documented in TWR-60472. Disassembly evaluation photograph numbers are logged in TWA-1987. The 360T026 flight set disassembly evaluations described were performed at the RSRM Refurbishment Facility in Clearfield, Utah. The final factory joint demate occurred on 12 April 1993. Detailed evaluations were performed in accordance with the Clearfield Postflight Engineering Evaluation Plan (PEEP), TWR-50051, Revision A. All observations were compared against limits that are also defined in the PEEP. These limits outline the criteria for categorizing the observations as acceptable, reportable, or critical. Hardware conditions that were unexpected and/or determined to be reportable or critical were evaluated by the applicable CPT and tracked through the PFAR system.

Nielson, Greg↗
NASA NTRS1993

Final postflight hardware evaluation report RSRM-28 (STS-53)

The final report for the Clearfield disassembly evaluation and a continuation of the KSC postflight assessment for the RSRM-28 (STS-53) RSRM flight set is presented. All observed hardware conditions were documented on PFOR's and are included in Appendices A through C. Appendices D and E contain the measurements and safety factor data for the nozzle and insulation components. This report, along with the KSC Ten-Day Postflight Hardware Evaluation Report (TWR-64215), represents a summary of the RSRM-28 hardware evaluation. The as-flown hardware configuration is documented in TWR-63638. Disassembly evaluation photograph numbers are logged in TWA-1989. The RSRM-28 flight set disassembly evaluations described were performed at the RSRM Refurbishment Facility in Clearfield, Utah. The final factory joint demate occurred on July 15, 1993. Additional time was required to perform the evaluation of the stiffener rings per special issue 4.1.5.2 because of the washout schedule. The release of this report was after completion of all special issues per program management direction. Detailed evaluations were performed in accordance with the Clearfield PEEP, TWR-50051, Revision A. All observations were compared against limits that are also defined in the PEEP. These limits outline the criteria for categorizing the observations as acceptable, reportable, or critical. Hardware conditions that were unexpected and/or determined to be reportable or critical were evaluated by the applicable team and tracked through the PFAR system.

Starrett, William David, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Rule based design of conceptual models for formative evaluation

A Human-Computer Interface (HCI) Prototyping Environment with embedded evaluation capability has been investigated. This environment will be valuable in developing and refining HCI standards and evaluating program/project interface development, especially Space Station Freedom on-board displays for payload operations. This environment, which allows for rapid prototyping and evaluation of graphical interfaces, includes the following four components: (1) a HCI development tool, (2) a low fidelity simulator development tool, (3) a dynamic, interactive interface between the HCI and the simulator, and (4) an embedded evaluator that evaluates the adequacy of a HCI based on a user's performance. The embedded evaluation tool collects data while the user is interacting with the system and evaluates the adequacy of an interface based on a user's performance. This paper describes the design of conceptual models for the embedded evaluation system using a rule-based approach.

Moore, Loretta A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Rule based design of conceptual models for formative evaluation

A Human-Computer Interface (HCI) Prototyping Environment with embedded evaluation capability has been investigated. This environment will be valuable in developing and refining HCI standards and evaluating program/project interface development, especially Space Station Freedom on-board displays for payload operations. This environment, which allows for rapid prototyping and evaluation of graphical interfaces, includes the following four components: (1) a HCI development tool; (2) a low fidelity simulator development tool; (3) a dynamic, interactive interface between the HCI and the simulator; and (4) an embedded evaluator that evaluates the adequacy of a HCI based on a user's performance. The embedded evaluation tool collects data while the user is interacting with the system and evaluates the adequacy of an interface based on a user's performance. This paper describes the design of conceptual models for the embedded evaluation system using a rule-based approach.

Moore, Loretta A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Microgravity Workstation and Restraint Evaluations

Confined workstations, where the operator has limited visibility and physical access to the work area, may cause prolonged periods of unnatural posture. Impacts on performance, in terms of fatigue and posture, may occur especially if the task is tedious and repetitive or requires static muscle loading. The glovebox design is a good example of the confined workstation concept. Within the scope of the 'Microgravity Workstation and Restraint Evaluation' project, funded by the NASA Headquarters Life Sciences Division, it was proposed to conduct a series of evaluations in ground, KC-135 and Shuttle environments to investigate the human factors issues concerning confined/unique workstations, such as gloveboxes, and also including crew restraint requirements. As part of the proposed integrated evaluations, two Shuttle Detailed Supplementary Objectives (DSOs) were manifested; one on Space Transportation System (STS)-90 and one on STS-88. The DSO on STS-90 evaluated use of the General Purpose Workstation (GPWS). The STS-88 mission was planned to evaluate a restraint system at the Remote Manipulator System (RMS). In addition, KC- 1 35 flights were conducted to investigate user/workstation/restraint integration for long-duration microgravity use. The scope of these evaluations included workstations and restraints to be utilized in the ISS environment, but also incorporated other workstations/ restraints in an attempt to provide findings/requirements with broader applications across multiple programs (e.g., Shuttle, ISS, and future Lunar-Mars programs). In addition, a comprehensive electronic questionnaire has been prepared and is under review by the Astronaut Office which will compile crewmembers' lessons learned information concerning glovebox and restraint use following their missions. These evaluations were intended to be complementary and were coordinated with hardware developers, users (crewmembers), and researchers. This report is intended to provide a summary of the findings from each of the evaluations.

Chmielewski, C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Objective Situation Awareness Measurement Based on Performance Self-Evaluation

The research was conducted in support of the NASA Safe All-Weather Flight Operations for Rotorcraft (SAFOR) program. The purpose of the work was to investigate the utility of two measurement tools developed by the British Defense Evaluation Research Agency. These tools were a subjective workload assessment scale, the DRA Workload Scale and a situation awareness measurement tool. The situation awareness tool uses a comparison of the crew's self-evaluation of performance against actual performance in order to determine what information the crew attended to during the performance. These two measurement tools were evaluated in the context of a test of innovative approach to alerting the crew by way of a helmet mounted display. The situation assessment data are reported here. The performance self-evaluation metric of situation awareness was found to be highly effective. It was used to evaluate situation awareness on a tank reconnaissance task, a tactical navigation task, and a stylized task used to evaluated handling qualities. Using the self-evaluation metric, it was possible to evaluate situation awareness, without exact knowledge the relevant information in some cases and to identify information to which the crew attended or failed to attend in others.

DeMaio, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2004

Efficient Evaluation Functions for Multi-Rover Systems

Evolutionary computation can be a powerful tool in cresting a control policy for a single agent receiving local continuous input. This paper extends single-agent evolutionary computation to multi-agent systems, where a collection of agents strives to maximize a global fitness evaluation function that rates the performance of the entire system. This problem is solved in a distributed manner, where each agent evolves its own population of neural networks that are used as the control policies for the agent. Each agent evolves its population using its own agent-specific fitness evaluation function. We propose to create these agent-specific evaluation functions using the theory of collectives to avoid the coordination problem where each agent evolves a population that maximizes its own fitness function, yet the system has a whole achieves low values of the global fitness function. Instead we will ensure that each fitness evaluation function is both "aligned" with the global evaluation function and is "learnable," i.e., the agents can readily see how their behavior affects their evaluation function. We then show how these agent-specific evaluation functions outperform global evaluation methods by up to 600% in a domain where a set of rovers attempt to maximize the amount of information observed while navigating through a simulated environment.

Agogino, Adrian↗
NASA NTRS2010

Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

Fabisinski, Leo L., III↗