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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Spin structures and baby universes

We extend a 2d topological model of the gravitational path integral to include sums over spin structure, corresponding to Neveu-Schwarz (NS) or Ramond (R) boundary conditions for fermions. This path integral corresponds to a correlator of boundary creation operators on a non-trivial baby universe Hilbert space, and vanishes when the number of R boundaries is odd. This vanishing implies a non-factorization of the correlator, which necessitates a dual interpretation of the bulk path integral in terms of a product of partition functions (associated to NS boundaries) and Witten indices (associated to R boundaries), averaged over an ensemble of theories with varying Hilbert space dimension and different numbers of bosonic and fermionic states. We also consider a model with End-of-the-World (EOW) branes, for which the dual ensemble then includes a sum over randomly chosen fermionic and bosonic states. We propose two modifications of the bulk path integral which restore an interpretation in a single dual theory: (i) a geometric prescription where we add extra boundaries with a sum over their spin structures, and (ii) an algebraic prescription involving “spacetime D-branes”. We extend our ideas to Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity, and propose a dual description of a single unitary theory with spin structure in a system with eigenbranes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Modeling Ensemble Properties of Atomically Disordered Materials

Atomic disorder can strongly influence material properties such as charge transport, optical response, and catalytic activity. However, efficiently modeling these disorder effects remains challenging for first-principles methods due to the cost of sampling large configurational spaces and computing complex physical quantities. Recent advances of machine learning techniques, particularly graph neural networks (GNNs), has enabled the efficient and accurate predictions of complex material properties, offering promising tools for studying disordered systems. In this work, we present a general machine-learning-assisted computational framework that integrates equivariant GNNs with Monte Carlo simulations to compute the thermodynamic and ensemble-averaged functional properties of disordered materials. Using the surface-termination-disordered MXene monolayer Ti 3 C 2 T 2–x as a representative system, we find that electrical conductivity exhibits an emergent peak near the order–disorder phase transition temperature due to the interplay between electron scattering and doping. In contrast, optical conductivity remains largely insensitive to local atomic disorder and reflects the global surface chemical composition. These results highlight the role of atomic disorder in affecting material properties and demonstrate the potential of our approach for statistically modeling disorder effects in a wide range of materials such as high-entropy alloys and spin liquids.

MXene↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of structurally diverse simulation models for prediction of epidemic outcomes caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) pathogens pose substantial challenges for epidemic control due to their ability to generate new infection foci at great distances. While various modeling approaches have been developed to understand and manage such outbreaks, little work has compared how models of different structures behave under shared conditions. Here, in this study, we compare four structurally distinct epidemiological models — EPIMUL, GEMF, PoPS, and Warwick — each adapted to simulate the spread of wheat stripe rust (WSR), a wind-dispersed LDD pathogen, under identical epidemiological parameters and dispersal kernel. Using data from a controlled field experiment, we evaluate the ability of each model to replicate disease prevalence under nine intervention scenarios that vary in timing and culling area. While the models differ substantially in design — ranging from spatial grid-based to network-based and raster-based frameworks — the shared dispersal kernel allowed for close alignment in their predictions. All models accurately captured general epidemic trends, particularly the strong effect of early intervention on disease suppression. We qualitatively compared their behavioral responses across scenarios and also evaluated an ensemble prediction by averaging across model outputs. Our findings highlight how integrating shared epidemiological components into distinct modeling frameworks can improve consistency and accuracy, while reinforcing the importance of early culling in managing LDD pathogen outbreaks.

Dispersal kernel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooperative effects in thin dielectric layers: Long-range Dicke superradiance

The realization and control of collective quantum effects so far have predominantly focused on cold atomic ensembles. Quantum photonic platforms, with their engineered Green's functions and integration capability of advanced solid-state quantum emitters, provide opportunities to explore regimes of light-matter interaction beyond the scope of atomic systems. In this work, we demonstrate that embedding quantum emitters within a thin dielectric layer fundamentally alters their collective radiative behavior. The optical modes in the dielectric layer mediate long-range dipole-dipole interactions between emitters, enabling both total and directional superradiance between emitters separated by several wavelengths. Crucially, this mechanism supports Dicke superradiance even in parameter regimes where standard settings fail to support an interaction, unveiling a dimensionality-driven enhancement of cooperative effects. By bridging many-body quantum optics and photonic engineering, our work reveals a distinct interplay between surrounding dimensionality and collective quantum dynamics. Experimental realization of these predictions, readily achievable in solid-state quantum optics platforms, paves the way for scalable, directional quantum light sources and frontiers in many-body quantum optics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Addressing uncertainty in genome-scale metabolic model reconstruction and analysis

The reconstruction and analysis of genome-scale metabolic models constitutes a powerful systems biology approach, with applications ranging from basic understanding of genotype-phenotype mapping to solving biomedical and environmental problems. However, the biological insight obtained from these models is limited by multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty, which are often difficult to quantify. Here we review the major sources of uncertainty and survey existing approaches developed for representing and addressing them. A unified formal characterization of these uncertainties through probabilistic approaches and ensemble modeling will facilitate convergence towards consistent reconstruction pipelines, improved data integration algorithms, and more accurate assessment of predictive capacity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

The C IV 1550 profile in type 1 Seyfert galaxies

The paper presents C IV 1550 A line profiles for the type 1 Seyfert galaxies NGC 5548, Mrk 509, NGC 7469, and MCG-2-58-22. Several line broadening mechanisms and theoretical line profiles are considered, and random motion of discrete clouds is ruled out. A spherical ensemble of discrete clouds with steady outflow or inflow produces a logarithmic profile, but does not account for the highly extended wings. A spherical ensemble with ballistic outflow produces a profile of the first exponential integral function, and fits the observed profile to the continuum level. Although C IV profiles favor the ballistic model, both Mrk 509 and NGC 7469 have significant asymmetry, and Balmer lines with a higher optical depth show higher asymmetry and redshift than all four galaxies.

Wu, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

ERPS to Monitor Non-conscious Mentation

Event Related Brain Potentials (or ERPs) are extracted from the EEG that can be recorded between a pair of electrodes placed on a person's scalp. The EEG is recorded as a continual fluctuation in voltage. It is the results of the integration of the potential fields generated by a multitude of neuronal ensembles that are active as the brain goes about its business. Within this ongoing signal it is possible to distinguish voltage fluctuations that are triggered in neural structures by the occurrence of specific events. This activity, evoked as it is by an external event, is known as the Evoked, or Event Related, Potential. The ERPs provide a unique opportunity to monitor non-conscious mentation. The inferences that can be based on ERP data are described and the limits of these inferences are emphasized. This, however, will not be an exhaustive review of the use of ERPs in Engineering Psychology. The application, its scope, and its limitations will be illustrated by means of one example. This example is preceded by a brief technical introduction to the methodology used in the study of ERPs. The manner in which ERPs are used to study cognition is described.

Donchin, E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Extreme Precipitation Predictions With Dynamical Downscaling: A Convection‐Permitting Modeling Study in Texas and Oklahoma

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble‐based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection‐permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection‐permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high‐resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photoelectrochemical CO 2 Reduction toward Multicarbon Products with Silicon Nanowire Photocathodes Interfaced with Copper Nanoparticles

The development of photoelectrochemical systems for converting CO 2 into chemical feedstocks offers an attractive strategy for clean energy storage by directly utilizing solar energy, but selectivity and stability for these systems have thus been limited. Here, we interface silicon nanowire (SiNW) photocathodes with a copper nanoparticle (CuNP) ensemble to drive efficient photoelectrochemical CO 2 conversion to multicarbon products. This integrated system enables CO 2 -to-C 2 H 4 conversion with faradaic efficiency approaching 25% and partial current densities above 2.5 mA/cm 2 at -0.50 V vs RHE, while the nanowire photocathodes deliver 350 mV of photovoltage under 1 sun illumination. Under 50 h of continual bias and illumination, CuNP/SiNW can sustain stable photoelectrochemical CO 2 reduction. In conclusion, these results demonstrate the nanowire/catalyst system as a powerful modular platform to achieve stable photoelectrochemical CO 2 reduction and the feasibility to facilitate complex reactions toward multicarbons using generated photocarriers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Mixing Suppresses Submesoscale Baroclinic Instabilities Over Sloping Bathymetry

Abstract The impacts of spurious numerical salinity mixing on the larger‐scale flow and tracer fields are characterized using idealized simulations. The idealized model is motivated by realistic simulations of the Texas‐Louisiana shelf and features oscillatory near‐inertial wind forcing. can exceed the physical mixing from the turbulence closure in frontal zones and within the mixed layer. This suggests that simulated mixing processes in frontal zones are driven largely by . Near‐inertial alongshore wind stress amplitude is varied to identify a base case that maximizes the ratio of to in simulations with no prescribed horizontal mixing. We then test the sensitivity of the base case with three tracer advection schemes (MPDATA, U3HC4, and HSIMT) and conduct ensemble runs with perturbed bathymetry. Instability growth is evaluated using the volume‐integrated eddy kinetic energy and available potential energy . While all schemes have similar total mixing, the HSIMT simulations have over double the volume‐integrated and 20% less relative to other schemes, which suppresses the release of and reduces the by roughly 25%. This results in reduced isohaline variability and steeper isopycnals, evidence that enhanced suppresses instability growth. Differences in and between the MPDATA and U3HC4 simulations are marginal. However, the U3HC4 simulations have 25% more . Experiments with variable horizontal viscosity and diffusivity coefficients show that small amounts of prescribed horizontal mixing improve the representation of the ocean state for all advection schemes by reducing the and increasing the .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Emitter Formation Dynamics and Probing of Radiation-Induced Atomic Disorder in Silicon

Near-infrared color centers in silicon are emerging candidates for on-chip integrated quantum emitters, optical-access quantum memories, and sensing. We access ensemble G-color-center formation dynamics and radiation-induced atomic disorder in silicon for a series of megaelectronvolt proton-flux conditions. The photoluminescence results reveal that the G centers are formed more efficiently by pulsed-proton irradiation than by continuous-wave proton irradiation. The enhanced transient excitations and dynamic annealing within nanoseconds allows optimization of the ratio of G-center formation to nonradiative defect accumulation. The G centers preserve narrow line widths of about 0.1 nm when they are generated by moderate pulsed-proton fluences, while the line width broadens significantly as the pulsed-proton fluence increases. This implies vacancy or interstitial clustering by overlapping collision cascades. The tracking of G-center properties for a series of irradiation conditions enables sensitive probing of atomic disorder, serving as a complementary analytical method for sensing damage accumulation. Aided by ab initio electronic structure calculations, we provide insight into the atomic disorder induced inhomogeneous broadening by introducing vacancies, silicon interstitials, and oriented strain fields in the vicinity of a G center. A vacancy leads to a tensile strain and can result in either a red shift or a blue shift of the G-center emission, depending on its position relative to the G center. Meanwhile, Si interstitials lead to compressive strain, which results in a monotonic red shift. In conclusion, high-flux and tunable ion pulses enable the exploration of the fundamental dynamics of radiation-induced defects as well as methods for the optimization of G-center formation and qubit synthesis for quantum information processing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Workflows for Science: A comprehensive guide for ensemble workflow tools usage with applications on OLCF systems

The growing demand for robust computational and workflow environments for scientific applications and user communities at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) has prompted collaboration with ensemble tools development teams and facility users to produce this technical paper. We connect science applications to the RADICAL-Pilot (RP) workflow tool to execute ensemble instantiations using the Frontier supercomputer. The documented installation, usage, and execution demonstrates how RP streamlines scientific workflows at OLCF. We outline the specific steps OLCF users can follow to integrate this tool with their applications and advance their research. This document stands as a comprehensive guide to OLCF users of ensemble workflow tools with examples on real applications using the Frontier supercomputer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unfolding of the Villin Headpiece Domain: Revealing Structural Heterogeneity with Time‐Resolved X‐Ray Solution Scattering and Markov State Modeling

Understanding protein folding pathways is crucial to deciphering the principles of protein structure and function. Here, the unfolding dynamics of the 35‐residue villin headpiece (HP35) and a norleucine‐substituted variant (2F4K) using a combination of experimental and computational techniques is investigated. Time‐resolved X‐ray solution scattering coupled with equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations and Markov state modeling reveals distinct unfolding mechanisms between the two variants: HP35 and 2F4K. Specifically, HP35 exhibits a two‐state unfolding process, whereas an intermediate state is identified for the 2F4K mutant. A Markov state model constructed from simulations is used to map atomic‐level transitions to experimental observations, providing insights into the role of sequence variations in modulating folding pathways. The findings underscore the importance of integrating experimental and computational approaches to unravel protein unfolding mechanisms between heterogenous structural ensembles.

Nijhawan, Adam K. [Department of Chemistry Northwe↗