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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

State Requirements for Electric Distribution System Planning

Utilities have conducted distribution planning since they first began building and operating electricity systems. But filing these plans for regulatory and stakeholder review is a relatively recent phenomenon. This report summarizes legislative and regulatory requirements for regulated electric utilities to file some type of distribution system plan in 20 U.S. jurisdictions. Some plans focus on expedited cost recovery for certain types of distribution system improvements; other plans focus on investments for grid modernization or distributed energy resources. Increasingly, states are adopting requirements for Integrated Distribution Plans. Such plans provide holistic grid investment strategies that address state and local policies and increasing complexity at the grid edge. The report covers the following topics for distribution system plans, highlighting advanced practices: -State goals and objectives -Procedural requirements -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources -Hosting capacity analysis -Baseline information requirements -Grid modernization strategy -Grid needs assessment -Non-wires solutions -Reliability and resilience analyses -Stakeholder engagement -Equity -Pilots -Coordination with other planning processes The report includes links to legislation; regulatory requirements, proceedings, and orders; and filed utility plans. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity provided funding support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2021

Field Accelerated Stress Testing (FAST): Forecasting Plant-specific Failure Modes and Degradation Rates

Photovoltaic plant owners and insurance companies would like to be prepared for the forthcoming material warranty claims (material defects) and power warranty claims (degradation rate). To address the needs of these stakeholders, this presentation aims to introduce a new conceptual approach to perform accelerated testing right at the field of interest and it is called field accelerated stress testing (FAST). The primary goal of this presentation is to present a conceptual approach to forecast the field specific failure modes and degradation rates in advance by a factor of 2 to 5, right at the plant site using a few spare modules available at the plant location itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The relative importance of building design parameters in reducing energy use and sensible heat release from buildings in light of forecasted future weather data and building coverage ratio

Buildings typically have a 60-to-75-year lifespan before they require significant maintenance or modifications. However, most builders evaluate the performance of their new buildings using whole-building energy simulation tools based on the current typical meteorological year (TMY) file or actual meteorological year. The energy use consumption and sensible heat release pattern observed from buildings could potentially change based on shifting global climates. Therefore, the recommended energy-efficiency design parameters might also change during these periods. In this study, we evaluate the role of different building design parameters, such as material reflectivity, HVAC COP, and insulation values, on building energy usage and sensible heat release from buildings with different building coverage ratios (BCR), based on the current and future weather file TMY (fTMY) for the middle of the century (2040–2060). The role of sensible heat release from buildings is not accounted for accurately while estimating building energy usage in most whole-building energy simulations. The study conducts a series of whole-building energy simulation analyses using EnergyPlus to evaluate the role of different design parameters based on TMY and fTMY weather conditions. The analysis is conducted for two hot desert climatic cities: Phoenix (USA) and Abu Dhabi (UAE). The results show that, for the base case in a future climate, the sensible heat release is reduced by an average of 30% due to the reduced delta T between the surface and ambient air. Further, the results show an increase in total energy consumption by 5% annually. The results also show that, for buildings with traditional coatings, shorter buildings release more heat than taller buildings. On the other hand, for buildings with reflective paints, shorter buildings release less heat than taller buildings. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and builders to better understand the relative role of different building design parameters while constructing new and retrofitting existing buildings.

Alhazmi, Mansour [King Fahd University of Petroleu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recommended vs. Actual Escalation Rates For ESPCs: Is the Guidance Good?

Escalation rates applied to the savings from energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) and related financed energy projects play a large role in their scope and costs. The U.S. Department of Energy’sFederal Energy Management Program (FEMP) employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to package projections of real (uninflated) energy prices and general inflation forecasts developed by two other federal government entities. The main output from this exercise is NIST’s Energy Escalation Rate Calculator (EERC), which is strongly recommended by FEMP for use in performance contracts and relied on by federal agencies and others conducting performance contracts as an objective source for their projects’ escalation rates. This study investigated whether the rates prescribed by EERC (and a coarser NIST tool that preceded it) have provided users with estimates that approximate actual changes in energy prices over the years. The results are encouraging: the NIST tools slightly under-estimated actual electricity prices and somewhat over-estimated those for natural gas. Concern regarding the latter is mitigated, however, because a) it is seen as due primarily to the increasing surplus of natural gas from the “fracking revolution” in the 2010s, and b) natural gas savings were found to account for only 14.4% of the total savings from the largest population of federal ESPCs (FEMP’s indefinite quantity ESPC contract, representing roughly 430 projects), compared to almost four times that (56.8%) for electricity savings. Consequently, reliance on EERC appears to be a sound policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-layered Energy Management Framework for Extreme Fast Charging Stations Considering Demand Charges, Battery Degradation, and Forecast Uncertainties

To achieve a cost-effective and expeditious charging experience for extreme fast charging station (XFCS) owners and electric vehicle (EV) users, the optimal operation of XFCS is crucial. It is however challenging to simultaneously manage the profit from energy arbitrage, the cost of demand charges, and the degradation of a battery energy storage system (BESS) under uncertainties. This paper, therefore, proposes a multi-layered multi-time scale energy flow management framework for an XFCS by considering long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, monthly demand charges reduction, and BESS life degradation. In the proposed approach, an upper scheduling layer (USL) ensures the overall operation economy and yields optimal scheduling of the energy resources on a rolling horizon basis, thereby considering the long-term forecast errors. A lower dispatch layer (LDL) takes the short-term forecast errors into account during the real-time operation of the XFCS. Per the latest research, monthly demand charges can be as high as 90% of the total monthly bills for EV fast charging stations; to this end, this paper takes the first attempt at the reduction of demand charges cost by considering the trade-off between the energy cost and monthly demand charges. Contrasting literature, this work allocates an energy reserve in the BESS stored energy to deal with the impact of short-term forecast errors on the optimized real-time operation of the XFCS. Moreover, degradation modeling considers the trade-off between short-term benefits and long-term BESS life degradation. As a result, case studies and a comparative analysis prove the efficacy of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying Taller Turbines in Complex Terrain: A Hill Flow Study (HilFlowS) Perspective

Terrain-induced flow acceleration is presented for the summertime, peak power season at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Site 300 for the Hill Flow Study (HilFlowS). HilFlowS, designed as an adjunct field campaign to the Department of Energy’s Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), provides wind profile observations at a second location in complex terrain for validating numerical atmospheric model simulations and for better understanding flow behavior over hills for wind power generation. One unique feature of HilFlowS was the inclusion of an undergraduate university student who helped plan and execute the experiment as well as analyze wind data from two remote sensing laser detection and ranging (lidar) instruments deployed along parallel ridgelines. HilFlowS examines the trend of building higher into the atmosphere for the purpose of increasing wind turbine power production and evaluates the wind resource in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California for a set of wind turbines of differing hub-heights and rotor-disk diameters found in the area. The wind profiles show strongly channeled onshore flow above both hills, enhanced by strong subsidence aloft, which produces a wind maximum (Umax) around z = 10 m and strong negative shear throughout all of the evaluated rotor-disks for much of the summer wind season. Under these conditions, shear becomes more negative with increasing hub-height and increasing rotor-disk size. Rotor-disk equivalent wind speed (Uequiv), a measure of the average wind speed across the entire rotor-disk, is compared to hub-height, rotor length, and rated capacity factor for the set of turbines. Uequiv is most closely related to turbine hub-height and is negatively correlated given the low altitude of Umax. Based on these results, building the largest capacity, large rotor-disk wind turbine at the lowest possible hub-height appears to provide turbines in the Altamont with a fast, near-surface, onshore wind resource during the peak power season.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Miscellaneous Electric Loads: Characterization and Energy Savings Potential

Over time, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) are expected to increase both in magnitude and share of residential and commercial building energy consumption. This trend is most apparent in North America, but it is also occurring in Japan and Europe. However, the contribution of MELs to building energy use is not currently well understood, both because the products in this category are transforming rapidly and the definition and classification of MELs is ambiguous. This study estimated the national energy consumption of 36 MELs using best-available data and found them to comprise 12% of delivered electricity to the U.S. residential and commercial building sectors. If 26 of these MELs were replaced with the most energy-efficient product models available on the market, their energy consumption could be halved to 6% of delivered electricity. National energy models will better account for building energy consumption by incorporating the MELs data collected and analyzed for this study, leading to improved policy decisions.

Miscellaneous electric loads, Plug loads, Taxonomy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case study of a bore wind-ramp event from lidar measurements and HRRR simulations over ARM Southern Great Plains

The rapid change of wind speed and direction on 21 August 2017 is studied using Doppler lidar measurements at five sites of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility in north-central Oklahoma. The Doppler lidar data were investigated along with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and turbulence available from the large suite of instrumentation deployed at the SGP Central Facility (C1) during the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment in August 2017. Lidar measurements at five sites, separated by 55-70 km, allowed us to document the development and evolution of the wind flow over the SGP area, examine synoptic conditions to understand the mechanism that leads to the ramp event, and estimate the ability of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model to reproduce this event. The flow feature in question is an atmospheric bore, a small-scale phenomenon that is challenging to represent in models, that was generated by a thunderstorm outflow northwest of the ARM SGP area. The small-scale nature of bores, its impact on power generation, and the modeling challenges associated with representing bores are discussed in this paper. In conclusion, the results also provide information about model errors between sites of different surface and vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A low-complexity non-intrusive approach to predict the energy demand of buildings over short-term horizons

Reliable, non-intrusive, short-term (of up to 12 hours ahead) prediction of a building's energy demand is a critical component of intelligent energy management applications. A number of such approaches have been proposed over time, utilizing various statistical and, more recently, machine learning techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and support vector machines. Importantly, all of these works barely outperform simple seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average models, while their complexity is significantly higher. Here, we propose a novel low-complexity non-intrusive approach that improves the predictive accuracy of the state-of-the-art by up to ~10%. The backbone of our approach is a K-nearest neighbours search method, that exploits the demand pattern of the most similar historical days, and incorporates appropriate time-series pre-processing and easing. In the context of this work, we evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art methods and provide insights on their performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗