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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Periodic Nutrient Supply on Pathways of Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Regime

A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.

Carr, Mary-Elena↗
NASA NTRS1987

Landscape pattern and successional dynamics in the boreal forest

The landscape-scale community dynamics of a boreal forest ecosystem was investigated using the Landsat MSS data record form 1973 to 1983 to generate a stochastic description of the key life cycle states of the community landscape elements. Such descriptions can provide input and verification for models of community development and landscape dynamics. It is anticipated that the proposed approach may be extended to measure, monitor, and model ecosystems at continental and planetary scales.

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Investigating Uncertainty in Predicting Carbon Dynamics in North American Biomes: Putting Support-Effect Bias in Perspective

A fundamental strategy in NASA's Earth Observing System's (EOS) monitoring of vegetation and its contribution to the global carbon cycle is to rely on deterministic, process-based ecosystem models to make predictions of carbon flux over large regions. These models are parameterized (that is, the input variables are derived) using remotely sensed images such as those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ground measurements and interpolated maps. Since early applications of these models, investigators have noted that results depend partly on the spatial support of the input variables. In general, the larger the support of the input data, the greater the chance that the effects of important components of the ecosystem will be averaged out. A review of previous work shows that using large supports can cause either positive or negative bias in carbon flux predictions. To put the magnitude and direction of these biases in perspective, we must quantify the range of uncertainty on our best measurements of carbon-related variables made on equivalent areas. In other words, support-effect bias should be placed in the context of prediction uncertainty from other sources. If the range of uncertainty at the smallest support is less than the support-effect bias, more research emphasis should probably be placed on support sizes that are intermediate between those of field measurements and MODIS. If the uncertainty range at the smallest support is larger than the support-effect bias, the accuracy of MODIS-based predictions will be difficult to quantify and more emphasis should be placed on field-scale characterization and sampling. This talk will describe methods to address these issues using a field measurement campaign in North America and "upscaling" using geostatistical estimation and simulation.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene-informed decomposition model predicts lower soil carbon loss due to persistent microbial adaptation to warming

Abstract Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration ( Q 10 ) in a temperate grassland ecosystem persistently decreases by 12.0 ± 3.7% across 7 years of warming. Also, the shifts of microbial communities play critical roles in regulating thermal adaptation of soil respiration. Incorporating microbial functional gene abundance data into a microbially-enabled ecosystem model significantly improves the modeling performance of soil microbial respiration by 5–19%, and reduces model parametric uncertainty by 55–71%. In addition, modeling analyses show that the microbial thermal adaptation can lead to considerably less heterotrophic respiration (11.6 ± 7.5%), and hence less soil C loss. If such microbially mediated dampening effects occur generally across different spatial and temporal scales, the potential positive feedback of soil microbial respiration in response to climate warming may be less than previously predicted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Landsat Science: 40 Years of Innovation and Opportunity

Landsat satellites have provided unparalleled Earth-observing data for nearly 40 years, allowing scientists to describe, monitor and model the global environment during a period of time that has seen dramatic changes in population growth, land use, and climate. The success of the Landsat program can be attributed to well-designed instrument specifications, astute engineering, comprehensive global acquisition and calibration strategies, and innovative scientists who have developed analytical techniques and applications to address a wide range of needs at local to global scales (e.g., crop production, water resource management, human health and environmental quality, urbanization, deforestation and biodiversity). Early Landsat contributions included inventories of natural resources and land cover classification maps, which were initially prepared by a visual interpretation of Landsat imagery. Over time, advances in computer technology facilitated the development of sophisticated image processing algorithms and complex ecosystem modeling, enabling scientists to create accurate, reproducible, and more realistic simulations of biogeochemical processes (e.g., plant production and ecosystem dynamics). Today, the Landsat data archive is freely available for download through the USGS, creating new opportunities for scientists to generate global image datasets, develop new change detection algorithms, and provide products in support of operational programs such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD). In particular, the use of dense (approximately annual) time series to characterize both rapid and progressive landscape change has yielded new insights into how the land environment is responding to anthropogenic and natural pressures. The launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) satellite in 2012 will continue to propel innovative Landsat science.

Cook, Bruce D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate

Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Mycorrhizal Carbon Costs in Temperate Forests: The Impacts of Functional Diversity and Global Change Factors

Mycorrhizal fungi form symbiotic relationships with most plant species, facilitating nutrient acquisition while consuming a significant fraction of the plant's photosynthetic carbon (C), which we define as the mycorrhizal C cost. Drivers of the mycorrhizal C cost, which is crucial for predicting environmental impacts on plant productivity, remain under-explored and difficult to quantify. Ecosystem models that incorporate mycorrhizae can offer insights into mycorrhizal C cost dynamics, but their predictions have rarely been validated against empirical data. Here, in this study, we used the Myco-CORPSE model, which explicitly simulates mycorrhizal processes alongside soil carbon and nitrogen cycling, to investigate the drivers of mycorrhizal C cost in temperate forests. Applying this model to over 1,800 forest inventory plots across the eastern United States, we found that the simulations matched published data, showing higher C allocation to ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi (16.0% of net primary production (NPP)) compared to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (5.8% of NPP). Further analysis showed that mixed forests, co-dominated by both AM and ECM trees, allocated less C to mycorrhizal fungi compared to forests dominated by either AM or ECM fungi alone, due to complementary nutrient acquisition strategies. Elevated Nitrogen (N) deposition and higher temperatures reduce mycorrhizal C costs, favoring AM strategies. Conversely, elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) increased plant N demand and mycorrhizal C costs, favoring ECM strategies that access organic N sources. These findings underscore the critical role of mycorrhizal functional diversity in plant nutrient acquisition and C dynamics, providing new insights into how mycorrhizal symbioses respond to global change.

Shao, Siya [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United↗
DOE OSTI2021

Omics-to-Reactive-Transport (ORT): A workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Motivation: Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As `omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results: We propose a workflow (`Omics to Reactive Transport – ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBASE and PFLOTRAN. Live, interactive models, which incorporate the results from this narrative into a PFLOTRAN simulation, are available (without login) at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/.

Rubinstein, Rebecca L↗
DOE OSTI2021

ORT: a workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Abstract Motivation Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As ‘omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results We propose a workflow (‘Omics to Reactive Transport—ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBase and PFLOTRAN. Availability and implementation Interactive models available at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/. Microbiological data available at NCBI via BioProject ID PRJNA576070. ORT Python code available at https://github.com/subsurfaceinsights/ort-kbase-to-pflotran. KBase narrative available at https://narrative.kbase.us/narrative/71260 or static narrative (no login required) at https://kbase.us/n/71260/258. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Optical Flow for Intermediate Frame Interpolation of Multispectral Geostationary Satellite Data

Applications in areas such as weather tracking and modeling, ecosystem monitoring, wildfire detection, and land-cover change are heavily dependent on spatial and temporal resolutions of satellite observations. However, there are typically trade-offs between spatial and temporal resolutions in dataset selection. For instance, geostationary weather tracking satellites are designed to take snapshots many times throughout the day but sensor hardware limits data collection. In this work we tackle this limitation, developing a method for temporal upsampling of multi-spectral satellite imagery using optical flow video interpolation deep convolutional neural networks. The presented model, extends Super SloMo (SSM) from single optical flow estimates to multichannel where flows are computed per band. We apply this technique on 8 multi-spectral bands of NOAA/NASA's GOES-16 mesoscale dataset to temporally enhance full disk hemispheric snapshots from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Through extensive experimentation, we show SSM vastly outperforms the linear interpolation baseline and that multichannel optical flows improves performance on GOES-16. A visual analysis of optical flow vectors clearly identifies hurricanes and large-scale atmospheric dynamics. Furthermore, we discuss challenges and open questions related to optical flow and temporal interpolation of multispectral geostationary satellite imagery.

Optical Flow↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Respiration, Moisture, and Temperature in Four Distinct Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that throughfall reduction (i.e. chronic drying) would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We conducted a field study in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests that vary in background rainfall and soil fertility. In each forest we constructed throughfall reduction structures that reduce moisture inputs to plots by ~50% (see methods). In drying and paired control plots we measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture (volume/volume), soil temperature (°C), air temperature (°C), and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022). We also collected litterfall biomass and surveyed all tree species for diameter at breast height (dbh), and identified tree species in 2018 and 2019.Results:We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks. Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for soil respiration (carbon dioxide flux) collected using the LiCor (see methods), air temperature °C , soil moisture (vl/vl), and soil temperature °C. Soil moisture and soil temperature were collected at 0-10cm depths using hand-held probes (see methods). Data are on ~3 week timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature at 30-Minute Intervals Four Lowland Panamanian Forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets here include .csv and .xls files for volumetric soil moisture (volume/volume) and soil temperature (°C). Data were taken at 30-minute intervals at 5cm and 20cm depths using permanent probes and data loggers (see methods). Data presented are from 2018-2019. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 2025 “Hacking Limnology” Workshop Series and DSOS Virtual Summit: A Half Decade of Data‐Intensive Aquatic Science

The 5th Aquatic Ecosystem MOdeling Network—Junior (AEMON-J) “Hacking Limnology” Workshop and 6th Virtual Summit: Incorporating Data Science and Open Science in the Aquatic Sciences (DSOS) convened 21–25 July 2025. As in previous years (Fig. 1; Meyer and Zwart 2020; Meyer et al. 2021b, 2021c, 2022, 2024), the virtual workshops and summit were free of charge, the content was formatted to allow for broad engagement from a globally distributed audience, and workshop materials and recordings were made available on the AEMON-J/DSOS archive (Meyer et al. 2021a). In contrast to previous years, which primarily focused on inland aquatic ecosystems, this year's workshops and summit showcased a notable plurality of ecosystem types, with workshops spanning marine, riverine, and lacustrine environments. The weeklong event brought together researchers and practitioners interested in the nexus of data science, open science, and the aquatic sciences, hosting between 47 and 65 attendees at a single time and a higher number of registrants (n = 389), who might opt to access the material asynchronously.

Meyer, Michael F. [US Geological Survey, Portland,↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical Tree Species Identity and Diameter at Breast Height in a Throughfall-Reduction Drying Experiment in Four Lowland Panamanian Forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests to 20cm depths, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for tree species identity and diameter at breast height (dbh) in the study plots. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Gravimetric Soil Moisture at Two Depths in Four Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests to 20cm depths, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for gravimetric soil moisture (weight/weight). Soil moisture was collected on a quarterly basis from 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depths using hand-held constant-volume soil corers. Data are on ~3 month timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗