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147 records · Page 9

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trace Chemistry

The goals of the trace chemistry group were to identify the processes relevant to aerosol and aerosol precursor formation occurring within aircraft gas turbine engines; that is, within the combustor, turbine, and nozzle. The topics of discussion focused on whether the chemistry of aerosol formation is homogeneous or heterogeneous; what species are important for aerosol and aerosol precursor formation; what modeling/theoretical activities to pursue; what experiments to carry out that both support modeling activities and elucidate fundamental processes; and the role of particulates in aerosol and aerosol precursor formation. The consensus of the group was that attention should be focused on SO2, SO3, and aerosols. Of immediate concern is the measurement of the concentration of the species SO3, SO2, H2SO4 OH, HO2, H2O2, O, NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, CO, and CO2 and particulates in various engines, both those currently in use and those in development. The recommendation was that concentration measurements should be made at both the combustor exit and the engine exit. At each location the above species were classified into one of four categories of decreasing importance, Priority I through IV, as follows: Combustor exit: Priority I species - SO3:SO2 ratio, SO3, SO2, and particulates; Priority II species: OH and O; Priority III species - NO and NO2; and Priority IV species - CO and CO2. For the Engine exit: Priority I species - SO3:SO2 ratio, SO3, SO2,H2SO4, and particulates; Priority II species: OH,HO2, H2O2, and O; Priority III species - NO, NO2, HONO, and HNO3; and Priority IV species - CO and CO2. Table I summarizes the anticipated concentration range of each of these species. For particulate matter, the quantities of interest are the number density, size distribution, and composition. In order to provide data for validating multidimensional reacting flow models, it would be desirable to make 2-D, time-resolved measurements of the concentrations of the above species and, in addition, of the pressure, temperature, and velocity. A near term goal of the experimental program should be to confirm the nonlinear effects of sulfur speciation, and if present, to provide an explanation for them. It is also desirable to examine if the particulate matter retains any sulfur. The recommendation is to examine the effects on SOx production of variations in fuel-bound sulfur and aromatic content (which may affect the amount of particulates formed). These experiments should help us to understand if there is a coupling between particulate formation and SO, concentration. Similarly, any coupling with NOx can be examined either by introducing NOx into the combustion air or by using fuel-bound nitrogen. Also of immediate urgency is the need to establish and validate a detailed mechanism for sulfur oxidation/aerosol formation, whose chemistry is concluded to be homogeneous, because there is not enough surface area for heterogeneous effects. It is envisaged that this work will involve both experimental and theoretical programs. The experimental work will require, in addition to the measurements described above, fundamental studies in devices such as flow reactors and shock tubes. Complementing this effort should be modeling and theoretical activities. One impediment to the successful modeling of sulfur oxidation is the lack of reliable data for thermodynamic and transport properties for several species, such as aqueous nitric acid, sulfur oxides, and sulfuric acid. Quantum mechanical calculations are recommended as a convenient means of deriving values for these properties. Such calculations would also help establish rate constants for several important reactions for which experimental measurements are inherently fraught with uncertainty. Efforts to implement sufficiently detailed chemistry into computational fluid dynamic codes should be continued. Zero- and one-dimensional flow models are also useful vehicles for elucidating the minimal set of species and reactions that must be included in two- and three-dimensional modeling studies.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗