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At least 163 records · Page 9

The Signature of Ozone Depletion in Recent Antarctic Precipitation Change: A Study with the Community Earth System Model

Although precipitation is a primary control on Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass balance, long-term historical AIS precipitation trends and their underlying external climate drivers remain inconclusive. In this study, we use a novel pair of climate model ensembles to identify a simulated spatial signature of ozone depletion-forced AIS precipitation change. Distinct areas of little change or precipitation decrease, arising from interaction between ozone depletion-forced atmospheric circulation changes and ice sheet topography, are outweighed by large-scale precipitation increases. This signature bears notable similarities to a new ice core-based reconstruction of AIS accumulation change and yields a significant increase in annual integrated precipitation (38 ± 10 Gt/year over the 1986–2005 period or 51 ± 11 Gt/year over the 1991–2005 period). Remarkably, this simulated ozone depletion-forced precipitation change is of a similar absolute magnitude to recent observed AIS mass loss trends and as a consequence, it may play a role in dampening recent AIS sea level rise contributions.

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.↗

Understanding Geospace on a Grand Scale: The Global Ionoshphere/Thermosphere Constellation

We present the concept of a constellation of polar orbiting satellites equally spaced in longitude (local time) to systematically sample both the neutral and ionzed gas components of the Earth in circular orbits near 350 km, including their density, temperature, and velocities. The instrumentation would include techniques to measure the height of the ionospheric "F-peak" and its variations along the orbit. The number of satellites (l2? 24? 48?) and their configuration would be determined from modeling analysis and expected geophysical phenomena, including their drivers and characteristic time scales. Together with imaging data from separate satellites, the array of satellites with in situ probes would be expected to provide a new picture of (1) high latitude electrodynamics and atmospheric processes and associated coupling with magnetospheric mass and momentum input, (2) the response of the global ionosphere and thermosphere to magnetic storms, and (3) global neutral wind circulation patterns, neutral density structure, tides, planetary waves, and gravity waves. The comprehensive measurements gathered by the IT-Constellation envisioned here would provide a major leap forward in each of these areas, addressing global physical processes and providing fundamental, new knowledge of Geospace. In particular, by its very nature, the constellation addresses "system science", revealing how the ionosphere-thermosphere connects globally to the magnetosphere above and the troposphere below. We present this concept as the next logical step in observing the "whole" space environment using in situ probes in conjunction with imagers. We invite modelers to not only comment on this concept but also to become actively engaged in helping to define it.

Pfaff, Robert↗

Twentieth Century Redistribution in Climatic Drivers of Global Tree Growth

Energy and water limitations of tree growth remain insufficiently understood at large spatiotemporal scales, hindering model representation of interannual or longer-term ecosystem processes. By assessing and statistically scaling the climatic drivers from 2710 tree-ring sites, we identified the boreal and temperate land areas where tree growth during 1930–1960 CE responded positively to temperature (20.8 ± 3.7 Mio km2; 25.9 ± 4.6%), precipitation (77.5 ± 3.3 Mio km2; 96.4 ± 4.1%), and other parameters. The spatial manifestation of this climate response is determined by latitudinal and altitudinal temperature gradients, indicating that warming leads to geographic shifts in growth limitations. We observed a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in temperature response at cold-dry sites between 1930–1960 and 1960–1990 CE, and the total temperature-limited area shrunk by −8.7 ± 0.6 Mio km2. Simultaneously, trees became more limited by atmospheric water demand almost worldwide. These changes occurred under mild warming, and we expect that continued climate change will trigger a major redistribution in growth responses to climate.

Babst, Flurin↗

Modeling Meteoroid Densities for Spacecraft Risk Assessment

Densities are a key driver of risk posed to spacecraft by the meteoroid environment. MEM 3 has incorporated a density distribution that utilizes measurements of 92 events. Densities are extremely difficult to measure. Greater need than ever for high resolution meteor imagery to break degeneracies.

Ehlert, Steven↗

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical Telescope Assembly

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multivariable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction-limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature are examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e., multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models Based on aperture diameter are derived.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

Zhang, Ping↗

The 1991 October 24 flare: A challenge for standard models

The M9.8 solar flare of 1991 October 24 22:30 UT presents several interesting characteristics: (1) energy release starts high in the corona; (2) the primary chromospheric ribbons are initially well separated and do not move apart at an observable rate; (3) no evidence is found for an erupting filament or other driver. To explain this flare, we consider several canonical flare models, including a filament eruption, a confined filament eruption, current interruption, and interacting loops. We conclude that none of these scenarios unequivocally explains this flare. Two possibilities which cannot be ruled out are (1) the eruption of a filament unobservable in H-alpha which starts high in the corona and produces no ribbon motions smaller than our detection threshold and no perceptible expansion of the coronal X-ray source, and (2) energy release due to spontaneous, propagating reconnection which allows the system to essentially brighten in place.

Beaujardiere, J.-F. De LA↗

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical: Telescope Assembly

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature were examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter were derived.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Improving the Mach number capabilities of arc driven shock tubes

New systematic trends in one of the performance parameters of pressure loaded arc driven shock tubes have been determined. For a given configuration, the Mach number increases with the cube root of capacitor energy; however, the initial driver gas pressure is relatively unimportant. A qualitative model based on the assumption of Joule-preheating by the arc discharge is discussed.

Johnson, J. A., III↗

Electrodynamic coupling in magnetically confined stellar X-ray loops

The solar coronal complex X-ray structure is now known to involve radiation loops that coincide spatially with the magnetic loops confining the radiating plasma. An effort is presently made to identify primary submodels involved in the global coupling between a mechanical energy reservoir of beta value greater than 1 and a contiguous site of X-ray activity whose beta value is lower than 1. The 'dynamo' model invoked establishes a quantitative connection between mechanical driver properties and the dimensions, field strength, and number density distribution of elemental magnetic loops.

Ionson, J. A.↗

Biologically-inspired hexapod robot design and simulation

The design and construction of a biologically-inspired hexapod robot is presented. A previously developed simulation is modified to include models of the DC drive motors, the motor driver circuits and their transmissions. The application of this simulation to the design and development of the robot is discussed. The mechanisms thought to be responsible for the leg coordination of the walking stick insect were previously applied to control the straight-line locomotion of a robot. We generalized these rules for a robot walking on a plane. This biologically-inspired control strategy is used to control the robot in simulation. Numerical results show that the general body motion and performance of the simulated robot is similar to that of the robot based on our preliminary experimental results.

Espenschied, Kenneth S.↗

Orion Post-Landing Crew Thermal Control Modeling and Analysis Results

In a vehicle constrained by mass and power, it is necessary to ensure that during the process of reducing hardware mass and power that the health and well being of the crew is not compromised in the design process. To that end, it is necessary to ensure that in the final phase of flight - recovery, that the crew core body temperature remains below the crew cognitive deficit set by the Constellation program. This paper will describe the models used to calculate the thermal environment of the spacecraft after splashdown as well as the human thermal model used to calculate core body temperature. Then the results of these models will be examined to understand the key drivers for core body temperature. Finally, the analysis results will be used to show that additional cooling capability must be added to the vehicle to ensure crew member health post landing.

Cross, Cynthia D.↗

Development of High-Performance Graphene-HgCdTe Detector Technology for Mid-Wave Infrared Applications

A high-performance graphene-based HgCdTe detector technology is being developed for sensing over the mid-wave infrared (MWIR) band for NASA Earth Science, defense, and commercial applications. This technology involves the integration of graphene into HgCdTe photodetectors that combines the best of both materials and allows for higher MWIR(2-5 m) detection performance compared to photodetectors using only HgCdTe material. The interfacial barrier between the HgCdTe-based absorber and the graphene layer reduces recombination of photogenerated carriers in the detector. The graphene layer also acts as high mobility channel that whisks away carriers before they recombine, further enhancing the detector performance. Likewise, HgCdTe has shown promise for the development of MWIR detectors with improvements in carrier mobility and lifetime. The room temperature operational capability of HgCdTe-based detectors and arrays can help minimize size, weight, power and cost for MWIR sensing applications such as remote sensing and earth observation, e.g., in smaller satellite platforms. The objective of this work is to demonstrate graphene-based HgCdTe room temperature MWIR detectors and arrays through modeling, material development, and device optimization. The primary driver for this technology development is the enablement of a scalable, low cost, low power, and small footprint infrared technology component that offers high performance, while opening doors for new earth observation measurement capabilities.

Sood, Ashok K.↗

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Milwaukee using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (InVEST)

Milwaukee County has experienced an increase in flooding due to climate change and urbanization. The frequency and severity of flooding vary spatially due to differences in land cover, surface permeability, and infrastructure. Marginalized communities tend to experience disproportionately high flooding and damage due to infrastructural inequalities and limited access to resources. To quantify these differences, we used the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model to calculate and create maps of runoff retention, nominal flood depth, and economic damage to buildings in Milwaukee. Our model inputs included land cover, surface permeability, and rainfall. To inform our precipitation inputs, we used NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) and National Weather Service (NWS) data. We assessed the relationship between flood risk and social and environmental spatial data including redlining, racial demographics, greenspace, and community resilience. The data demonstrate that flood risk is higher in historically redlined neighborhoods, majority Hispanic and Black census block groups, areas that lack parks and trees, and areas of low community resilience as measured by the Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). These findings will support our partners, Groundwork Milwaukee and Groundwork USA, in their efforts to promote the equitable distribution of resources and support environmental health in urban spaces. The end products of this project provide our partners with tools to assess urban flooding vulnerability, guide future intervention projects, quantify the effects of environmental injustice, and improve stakeholder access to data.

Madeleine Tango↗

Environment Modeling Using Runtime Values for JPF-Android

Software applications are developed to be executed in a specific environment. This environment includes external native libraries to add functionality to the application and drivers to fire the application execution. For testing and verification, the environment of an application is simplified abstracted using models or stubs. Empty stubs, returning default values, are simple to generate automatically, but they do not perform well when the application expects specific return values. Symbolic execution is used to find input parameters for drivers and return values for library stubs, but it struggles to detect the values of complex objects. In this work-in-progress paper, we explore an approach to generate drivers and stubs based on values collected during runtime instead of using default values. Entry-points and methods that need to be modeled are instrumented to log their parameters and return values. The instrumented applications are then executed using a driver and instrumented libraries. The values collected during runtime are used to generate driver and stub values on- the-fly that improve coverage during verification by enabling the execution of code that previously crashed or was missed. We are implementing this approach to improve the environment model of JPF-Android, our model checking and analysis tool for Android applications.

Verification↗

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS): An iRODS-Based, Cloud-Enabled Decision Support System for Invasive Species Habitat Suitability Modeling

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) is an online decision support system that allows users to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of interest, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. Target customers for ISFS are natural resource managers and decision makers who have a need for scientifically valid, model- based predictions of the habitat suitability of plant species of management concern. In a joint project involving NASA and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, ISFS has been used to model the potential distribution of Wavyleaf Basketgrass in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Maximum entropy techniques are used to generate predictive maps using predictor datasets derived from remotely sensed data and climate simulation outputs. The workflow to run a model is implemented in an iRODS microservice using a custom ISFS file driver that clips and re-projects data to geographic regions of interest, then shells out to perform MaxEnt processing on the input data. When the model completes, all output files and maps from the model run are registered in iRODS and made accessible to the user. The ISFS user interface is a web browser that uses the iRODS PHP client to interact with the ISFS/iRODS- server. ISFS is designed to reside in a VMware virtual machine running SLES 11 and iRODS 3.0. The ISFS virtual machine is hosted in a VMware vSphere private cloud infrastructure to deliver the online service.

Gill, Roger↗