Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “driver model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

Eccles, J. V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1993

NEP systems model

A new nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) systems analysis code is discussed. The new code is modular and consists of a driver code and various subsystem models. The code models five different subsystems: (1) reactor/shield; (2) power conversion; (3) heat rejection; (4) power management and distribution (PMAD); and (5) thrusters. The code optimizes for the following design criteria: minimum mass; minimum radiator area; and low mass/low area. The code also optimizes the following parameters: separation distance; temperature ratio; pressure ratio; and transmission frequency. The discussion is presented in vugraph form.

George, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks

Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr -1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m -2 , 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m -2 ) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ~2.30 kg C m –2 ) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m 2 ha -1 ) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Nonlinear seismic analysis of a reactor structure impact between core components

The seismic analysis of the FFTF-PIOTA (Fast Flux Test Facility-Postirradiation Open Test Assembly), subjected to a horizontal DBE (Design Base Earthquake) is presented. The PIOTA is the first in a set of open test assemblies to be designed for the FFTF. Employing the direct method of transient analysis, the governing differential equations describing the motion of the system are set up directly and are implicitly integrated numerically in time. A simple lumped-nass beam model of the FFTF which includes small clearances between core components is used as a "driver" for a fine mesh model of the PIOTA. The nonlinear forces due to the impact of the core components and their effect on the PIOTA are computed.

Hill, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Largely Ignored but Important Role of Non‐Rooted, Submersed Vegetation and Small Waterbodies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Abstract Small, shallow waterbodies are abundant globally and are associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions disproportionate to their size. One reason for this is the prevalence of non‐rooted, submersed (NRS) macrophytes that often dominate these systems. Despite these plants' significant role in the carbon ecology of their ecosystems, they are often excluded from climate change models due, in part, to the lack of clarity of their effects. Theus et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007758 ) provides new insights into the role that NRS macrophytes have on GHG emissions, demonstrating that increasing densities of these macrophytes lead to increases in both CO 2 and CH 4 gas fluxes. Here, we highlight the importance of both shallow waterbodies and NRS vegetation within the context of the field of aquatic ecosystem biogeochemistry. We identify a need for the inclusion of these drivers into climate change models based partly on the findings of Theus et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007758 ).

Hassett, Erin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Costs of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams Using a Reference Site Model

Hydropower capacity in the United States currently stands at approximately 103 GW, and there are remaining water resources that could help meet the rapidly increasing demand for electricity and ancillary grid services. Existing dams that do not generate power, known as non-powered dams, are a near-term solution to enhance the contribution of hydropower to the US power grid. However, there are thousands of such sites, and the lack of detailed information about their specific characteristics and associated costs presents significant challenges for stakeholders. This study addresses these challenges by developing a reference site model to evaluate the potential costs of hydropower at non-powered dams using currently available technologies. An application of the model reveals a wide range of estimates for capacity, capital costs, levelized cost of electricity, and cost components. While many sites are competitive with current technologies, the majority would need cost-reducing innovations to be viable. Despite the limited available information, the model offers valuable insights into the relative competitiveness of hydropower projects at non-powered dams. The simulation results highlight the need for continued technological advancements in hydropower and provide a basis for evaluating the benefits of new innovations.

cost drivers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Reactor Network Modeling of Ammonia Rich-Quench-Lean Combustion Using a Partially Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative to hydrogen with high energy density and favorable storage and transport characteristics. However, low flammability and a propensity for high nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions make direct utilization challenging. Recently, two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in achieving low NO x emissions with ammonia. In this approach, the rich stage serves to oxidize a portion of the fuel while thermally decomposing as much of the remaining ammonia as possible, generating hydrogen. In the second (lean) stage, air is rapidly introduced, burning out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Two-stage RQL combustion of ammonia has been investigated in the open literature both experimentally and numerically. In general, idealized chemical reactor network (CRN) models predict NO x concentrations below those of 2D/3D computational fluid dynamics models and experiments. The primary drivers of these discrepancies may be largely attributed to finite rate mixing nonadiabatic operation. The typical CRN model is comprised of a perfectly-stirred-reactor (PSR), followed by a plug-flow-reactor (PFR), meant to represent the flame, and postflame zones, respectively. In the two-stage RQL approach two PSR-PFR networks are arranged sequentially, corresponding to the rich and lean stages, with secondary air injection in between. In the authors' past work, this arrangement has demonstrated the significant sensitivity of exit NO x to the rich stage equivalence ratio, while the amount of secondary air injection was shown to be less critical. In this paper, the CRN model is extended to (1) include the impacts of heat loss and (2) utilize a partially-stirred-reactor (PaSR) approach to study the impacts of mixing on emissions performance. Varying amounts of heat loss are applied to the rich relaxation zone to understand emissions performance and changes to optimization of equivalence ratio and residence time. Premixed and nonpremixed configurations are considered in the rich stage PaSR, with varying degrees of mixing intensity to study the interaction between mixing, transport, and kinetic timescales. Critically, the impact of mixing between hot products and secondary air injection is studied to understand practical injector needs. Results show unburnt ammonia leaving the rich stage as a primary contributor to NO x emissions – driven both by increased heat loss and reduced mixing rates. Furthermore, heat losses have been shown to create conditions that are conducive to increased N 2 O formation in the lean stage. In conclusion, the results of this study will be considered in the context of developing optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia.

Combustion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effects of motivation on car-following

Speed- and distance control by automobile-drivers is described best by linear models when the leading vehicles speed varies randomly and when the driver is motivated to keep a large distance. A car-following experiment required subjects to follow at 'safe' or at 'close' distance. Transfer-characteristics of the driver were extended by 1 octave when following 'closely'. Nonlinear properties of drivers control-movements are assumed to reflect different motivation-dependent control strategies.

Boesser, T.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Maria F. Adame↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRN Modeling of Ammonia RQL Combustion using a Partially-Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative to hydrogen with high energy density and favorable storage and transport characteristics. However low flammability and a propensity for high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions make direct utilization challenging. Recently, two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in achieving low NOx emissions with ammonia. In this approach, the rich stage serves to oxidize a portion of the fuel, while thermally decomposing as much of the remaining ammonia as possible, generating hydrogen. In the second (lean) stage, air is rapidly introduced, burning out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Two-stage RQL combustion of ammonia has been investigated in the open literature both experimentally and numerically. In general, idealized chemical reactor network (CRN) models predict NOx concentrations below that of 2D/3D computational fluid dynamics models and experiments. The primary drivers of these discrepancies may be largely attributed to finite rate mixing non-adiabatic operation. The typical CRN model is comprised of a perfectly-stirred-reactor (PSR), followed by a plug-flow-reactor (PFR), meant to represent the flame, and post-flame zones, respectively. In the two-stage RQL approach two PSR-PFR networks are arranged sequentially, corresponding to the rich and lean stages, with secondary air injection in between. In the authors’ past work, this arrangement has demonstrated the significant sensitivity of exit NOx to the rich stage equivalence ratio, while the amount of secondary air injection was shown to be less critical. In this paper, the CRN model is extended to (1) include the impacts of heat loss and (2) utilize a partially-stirred-reactor (PaSR) approach to study the impacts of mixing on emissions performance. Varying amounts of heat loss are applied to the rich relaxation zone to understand emissions performance and changes to optimization of equivalence ratio and residence time. Premixed and non-premixed configurations are considered in the rich stage PaSR, with varying degrees of mixing intensity to study the interaction between mixing, transport, and kinetic timescales. Critically, the impact of mixing between hot products and secondary air injection is studied to understand practical injector needs. Results show unburnt ammonia leaving the rich stage as a primary contributor to NOx emissions – driven both by increased heat loss and reduced mixing rates. Furthermore, heat losses have shown to create conditions which are conducive to increased N2O formation in the lean stage. The results of this study will be considered in the context of developing optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia..

advanced gas turbines↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗