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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hydraulic Testing of the Lost Lake Aquifer Near Recovery Wells RWM 6 and RWM 7

Hydrologic tests were conducted on the Lost Lake Aquifer Zone (LLAZ) at recovery wells RWM 6 and RWM 7 in accordance with the approved test plan (Dixon, 2023). The objective of the testing was to determine well performance parameters of RWM 6 and aquifer hydraulic properties near RWM 6 and RWM 7. Tests at RWM 6 consisted of a step-drawdown test to determine well performance parameters, a constant rate pump test to determine aquifer hydraulic properties, and an aquifer recovery test also used to determine aquifer hydraulic properties. Well performance parameters determined included specific capacity, well efficiency, and head loss coefficients. Prior to testing at RWM 6, a constant rate pump test was conducted at RWM 7. Data from this testing was used to determine aquifer hydraulic properties near RWM 7.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds

The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cesium Removal from Surrogate Pyroprocessing Salt by Electrodeposition

Active metals in used nuclear fuel dissolve into the salt during pyroprocessing and are not removed by electrorefining or drawdown operations. The buildup of 137 Cs over time increases the heat load and ionizing radiation level of the salt such that it must be replaced frequently, resulting in a significant amount of salt waste. An effective means of managing cesium in the molten salt electrolyte would increase the efficiency of pyroprocessing and decrease the volume of salt waste requiring disposal. A previous report summarized issues that must be addressed when developing a removal strategy and assessed the suitability of existing methods and remaining technological gaps to their application (Rose and Thomas 2023). Cesium is extremely stable in molten salt as a chloride—even more stable than the LiCl-KCl eutectic base salt used for pyroprocessing fuel—which makes removing cesium a challenge. However, sufficiently strong atomic interactions occur between active metal species and liquid metals that make the electrodeposition of active metal fission products into liquid metal electrodes energetically favorable. The feasibility of recovering cesium from LiCl-KCl pyroprocessing salt through electrodeposition into liquid metals is eing assessed by identifying potentially effective liquid metals and performing tests to determine the effectiveness of electrodepositing cesium from a LiCl/KCl salt into these liquid metals. Previous studies investigating the electrodeposition of Sr 2+ , and Ba 2+ into zinc, cadmium, bismuth, lead, tin and antimony have shown that alkali and alkaline earth metals can be electrodeposited at liquid metal cathodes (Kim et al., 2018). The removal of Ba 2+ and Sr 2+ was measured to be more efficient than the removal of monovalent cations due to the greater thermochemical driving force for alloying those elements with the liquid metal (Jang et al. 2022). Because the equilibrium potentials are dependent on the interactions of the active metal in the liquid metal, it is likely that the other alkali metals Li + , and K + , will deposit from LiCl/KCl salt with the Cs + . Therefore, application of this method to recover active metals from pyroprocessing salt will benefit from the use of a liquid metal and set of operating conditions that sufficiently increase the reduction potential of cesium to remove cesium from the waste salt with an acceptable amount of co-deposited lithium and potassium.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cavern Leaching Monitoring CY23

The effects of raw water leaching at the U.S. SPR were modeled using SANSMIC. In addition to 18 caverns identified in previous leaching reports, six caverns have been identified for further monitoring based on the results of this report. SANSMIC continues to serve as a useful tool for monitoring changes in cavern shape. However, some caverns where string cuts were made in the middle of drawdowns are showing overprediction in the SANSMIC model when compared with recent sonars.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Active Metal Removal from Pyroprocessing Salt by Electrodeposition

Active metals present in used nuclear fuel dissolve into the salt during pyroprocessing, but are not recovered during electrorefining or drawdown operations due to their chemical stability in the salt. The accumulation of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in process salt over time increases the heat load and ionizing radiation level of the salt such that it must be replaced frequently, resulting in a significant amount of salt waste. An effective means of removing active metals from the molten salt to enable recycle of the electrolyte (e.g., LiCl/KCl) would increase the efficiency of pyroprocessing and decrease the volume of salt waste requiring disposal.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive-transport modeling of fracture flow to quantify the changes in flow pathways from matrix thermal contraction and mineral precipitation and dissolution; influence of grid resolution

A series of reactive-transport models of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) were constructed using the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to examine the effect of matrix thermal contraction and mineral dissolution/precipitation on fracture flow in the context of grid cell size and model complexity. It was found that for thermal drawdown at production well, the impact of fracture zone grid cell size is negligible.

Gatz-Miller, Hannah Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2025

The potential for New Mexico basalts to sequester CO 2 with a focus on critical element mobility

This study evaluates the potential of New Mexico basaltic rocks and mafic mine waste for CO₂ sequestration via mineral carbonation. Batch experiments up to 200 days at 40°C simulated CO₂-bearing fluid interactions with various crushed basaltic materials at different grain sizes. Results showed that 70–80% of injected CO₂ was mineralized, with the finest grain sizes showing the most rapid and effective drawdown. The experiments also assessed the mobility of critical metals (Cu, Ni, Zn, Co), revealing trends tied to mineral dissolution and secondary mineral formation. The findings support the dual potential of mine waste for CO₂ sequestration and critical element recovery, informing future carbon capture and resource upcycling strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy to Communities Program Short Introduction: Evaluation of Enhanced Geothermal System for Cornell District Heating [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Cornell University (Itaca, NY) community efforts in developing Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir performance, by simulating fracture flow to estimate pressure drop, flow distribution, and heat extraction efficiency in fractured rock. Thermal drawdown modeling was used to assess long-term resource sustainability, while system optimization studies refined key parameters such as well configuration and flow rate to improve overall reservoir efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mk-IV Salt Crystallization Hot Finger Apparatus for Partitioning Used Electrorefiner Salt

Electrorefining is a controlled redox process used to regulate the behavior of ionic species. Through this process, metals can be deposited onto a cathode from an electrolyte solution in a controlled manner. The Mk-IV electrorefiner (Mk-IV ER) at Idaho National Laboratory is an engineering-scale, molten salt-based electrorefining cell that has been used for decades to recover metallic uranium from spent fuel. As a result, highly stable fission product chlorides have accumulated in the electrolyte. This accumulation results in changes to the salt’s properties, such as melting temperature, thermal conductivity, and density, as well as elevated product impurity and fissile materials criticality margin. These factors prompt the need for a salt regeneration process, such as melt-crystallization and species drawdown. This work focuses on providing a conceptual design to regenerate ER salt from used Mk-IV-ER salt in-situ, while minimizing salt waste volumes by concentrating the fission products in a final processed salt heal. We propose using a hot-finger crystallization apparatus design to fractionally crystallize salt in the Mk-IV-ER head space (or baffle space), allowing the collection of solid and liquid fractions. By using a cup-drain design, the used salt will be allowed to slowly solidify on the walls of a stainless-steel cup. The apparatus drain plug will then open to allow the liquid salt phase to drain to a lower cup, effectively separating the liquid phase from the solid phase. Under the hypothesis that the liquid phase salt concentrates the fission products, which is under examination in the accompanying work package, this separation allows the recovered solid salt to be reused while minimizing the high-level salt waste volume of used ER salt.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Enhanced aquatic respiration associated with mixing of clearwater tributary and turbid Amazon River waters

When water bodies with unique biogeochemical constituents mix together there is potential for diverse responses by aquatic microbial communities and associated ecosystem functions. Here we evaluate bulk respiration rates under varying mixtures of turbid Amazon River water and two lowland tributaries—the Tapajós and Xingu rivers—based on O2 drawdown in dark rotating incubation chambers. Preliminary experiments containing 50% Tapajós River and 50% Amazon River water were performed during falling water. More detailed experiments containing 5%, 17%, 33%, and 50% tributary water were performed for both the Tapajós and Xingu rivers at 3 different rotation velocities (0, 0.22, and 0.66 m s-1) during the falling water period. Respiration rates were higher in the mixtures compared to both river endmembers in most experiments. For both the Xingu and Tapajós rivers a 17% mixture yielded maximal respiration rates that were 1.6 to 2.8 times faster than each tributary, respectively. The 50% mixtures, on the other hand, only yielded 1.4 to 1.9 times amplified respiration rates for the Tapajós and Xingu rivers, respectively, and in one case was respiration was 2.8 times lower in the 50% mixture compared to the tributary. We hypothesize that these enhanced respiration rates are driven, in part, by microbial priming effects that have been previously identified on a molecular level for these rivers. The results of this study suggest that there may be a “sweet spot” for priming effects to occur in terms of the relative abundance of “priming” and “primed” substrates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Primary Production in the Lower Amazon River Based on a Dissolved Oxygen Stable Isotopic Mass Balance

The Amazon River outgasses nearly an equivalent amount of CO 2 as the rainforest sequesters on an annual basis due to microbial decomposition of terrigenous and aquatic organic matter. Most research performed in the Amazon has been focused on unraveling the mechanisms driving CO 2 production since the recognition of a persistent state of CO 2 supersaturation. However, although the river system is clearly net heterotrophic, the interplay between primary production and respiration is an essential aspect to understanding the overall metabolism of the ecosystem and potential transfer of energy up trophic levels. For example, an efficient ecosystem is capable of both decomposing high amounts of organic matter at lower trophic levels, driving CO 2 emissions, and accumulating energy/biomass in higher trophic levels, stimulating fisheries production. Early studies found minimal evidence for primary production in the Amazon River mainstem and it has since been assumed that photosynthesis is strongly limited by low light penetration attributed to the high sediment load. Here, we test this assumption by measuring the stable isotopic composition of O 2 (δ 18 O-O 2 ) and O 2 saturation levels in the lower Amazon River from Óbidos to the river mouth and its major tributaries, the Xingu and Tapajós rivers, during high and low water periods. An oxygen mass balance model was developed to estimate the input of photosynthetic oxygen in the discrete reach from Óbidos to Almeirim, midway to the river mouth. Based on the oxygen mass balance we estimate that primary production occurred at a rate of 0.39 ± 0.24 g O m 3 d -1 at high water and 1.02 ± 0.55 g O m 3 d -1 at low water. This translates to 41 ± 24% of the rate of O 2 drawdown via respiration during high water and 67 ± 33% during low water. These primary production rates are 2-7 times higher than past estimates for the Amazon River mainstem. In conclusion, it is possible that at high water much of this productivity signal is the result of legacy advection from floodplains, whereas limited floodplain connectivity during low water implies that most of this signal is the result of in situ primary production in the Amazon River mainstem.

Amazon↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Synthetic Biology in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Reduction: Prospects and Challenges

The long atmospheric residence time of CO 2 creates an urgent need to add atmospheric carbon drawdown to CO 2 regulatory strategies. Synthetic and systems biology (SSB), which enables manipulation of cellular phenotypes, offers a powerful approach to amplifying and adding new possibilities to current land management practices aimed at reducing atmospheric carbon. The participants (in attendance: Christina Agapakis, George Annas, Adam Arkin, George Church, Robert Cook-Deegan, Charles DeLisi, Dan Drell, Sheldon Glashow, Steve Hamburg, Henry Jacoby, Henry Kelly, Mark Kon, Todd Kuiken, Mary Lidstrom, Mike MacCracken, June Medford, Jerry Melillo, Ron Milo, Pilar Ossorio, Ari Patrinos, Keith Paustian, Kristala Jones Prather, Kent Redford, David Resnik, John Reilly, Richard J. Roberts, Daniel Segre, Susan Solomon, Elizabeth Strychalski, Chris Voigt, Dominic Woolf, Stan Wullschleger, and Xiaohan Yang) identified a range of possibilities by which SSB might help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations and which might also contribute to environmental sustainability and adaptation. These include, among other possibilities, engineering plants to convert CO 2 produced by respiration into a stable carbonate, designing plants with an increased root-to-shoot ratio, and creating plants with the ability to self-fertilize. A number of serious ecological and societal challenges must, however, be confronted and resolved before any such application can be fully assessed, realized, and deployed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MODFLOW6 models used to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions driving water-level fluctuations in well ER-5-3-2, Frenchman Flat, Southern Nevada

The hydrograph for well ER-5-3-2 in Frenchman Flat, southern Nevada, has previously unexplained water-level fluctuations. Four, three-dimensional, groundwater models (MODFLOW 6) were developed to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions affecting the well ER-5-3-2 hydrograph. Four model scenarios were developed that simulated: (1) wellbore leakage without recharge, (2) wellbore leakage with recharge, (3) shallow (low transmissivity) and deep (high transmissivity) carbonate rocks, and (4) lateral heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. Input and output files for the four model scenarios are in the model and output directories, respectively. Hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and wellbore-leakage rates (when simulated) were estimated with parameter estimation (PEST) by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function. The objective function was informed by measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Measurement observations included drawdowns from the constant-rate aquifer test and water-level altitudes measured in well ER-5-3-2 from 2001-2021. Tikhonov regularization informed hydraulic conductivity and specific storage parameters that were insensitive to measurement observations, where homogeneity was the preferred relation. Batch files, executables, and MODFLOW 6, PEST, and post-processing utilities are in the ancillary directory. Supplementary data also are included in the ancillary directory, including site information, high-frequency water-level and aquifer-test data, transmissivity estimates, water-chemistry data, and water-temperature analyses. This USGS data release contains data, analyses, and model files for the simulations and analysis results described in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225132).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of CO 2 , climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA ) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2 , climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA : some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry mediates nonlinear interactions between nutrient supply, temperature, and atmospheric CO 2

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry links nutrient supply to marine carbon export. Deviations of phytoplankton stoichiometry from Redfield proportions (106C :1P) could therefore have a significant impact on carbon cycling, and understanding which environmental factors drive these deviations may reveal new mechanisms regulating the carbon cycle. To explore the links between environmental conditions, stoichiometry, and carbon cycling, we compared four different models of phytoplankton C :P: a fixed Redfield model, a model with C : P given as a function of surface phosphorus concentration (P), a model with C P given as a function of temperature, and a new multi-environmental model that predicts C : P as a function of light, temperature, and P. These stoichiometric models were embedded into a five-box ocean circulation model, which resolves the three major ocean biomes (high-latitude, subtropical gyres, and tropical upwelling regions). Contrary to the expectation of a monotonic relationship between surface nutrient drawdown and carbon export, we found that lateral nutrient transport from lower C: P tropical waters to high C: P subtropical waters could cause carbon export to decrease with increased tropical nutrient utilization. It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between temperature and p CO 2 atm will play an important role in anthropogenic climate change, with changes in the biological pump playing at most a secondary role. Here we show that environmentally driven shifts in stoichiometry make the biological pump more influential, and may reverse the expected positive relationship between temperature and p CO 2,atm . In the temperature-only model, changes in tropical temperature have more impact on the Δ p CO 2,atm (~41 ppm) compared to subtropical temperature changes (~4.5 ppm). Our multi-environmental model predicted a decline in p CO 2,atm of ~ 46 ppm when temperature spanned a change of 10 °C. Thus, we find that variation in marine phytoplankton stoichiometry and its environmental controlling factors can lead to nonlinear controls on p CO 2,atm , implying the need for further studies of ocean C : P and the impact on ocean carbon cycling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 , characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface p CO 2 . Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface p CO 2 in December&ndash;January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗