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At least 163 records · Page 9

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DOE OSTI2024

QCD Predictions for Meson Electromagnetic Form Factors at High Momenta: Testing Factorization in Exclusive Processes

We report the first lattice QCD computation of pion and kaon electromagnetic form factors, 𝐹 𝑀⁡ (𝑄 2 ), at large momentum transfer up to 10 and 28 GeV 2 , respectively. Utilizing physical masses and two fine lattices, we achieve good agreement with JLab experimental results at 𝑄 2 ≲ 4 GeV 2 . For 𝑄 2 ≳ 4 GeV 2 , our results provide ab initio QCD benchmarks for the forthcoming experiments at JLab 12 GeV and future electron-ion colliders. We also test the QCD collinear factorization framework utilizing our high-𝑄 2 form factors at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbation theory, which relates the form factors to the leading Fock-state meson distribution amplitudes. Comparisons with independent lattice QCD calculations using the same framework demonstrate, within estimated uncertainties, the universality of these nonperturbative quantities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Cybersecurity, Situational Awareness and Resilience in Distribution Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaics (CARE-PV) (Final Report)

Since legacy distribution systems have very limited visibility beyond the substation, high penetration of PV at the grid edge presents some unique operational challenges. One approach to address these challenges is to use information from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and µPMUs. However, exploiting this information is impacted by a number of factors, including multi-timescale measurements, volume of data generated, communication network impairments (e.g., information loss and latency) and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. Therefore, one of the critical tasks involved in the management of a distribution grid is to develop complete situational awareness by integrating cyber-security mechanisms with state estimation strategies and leveraging this situational awareness to assure energy services at strategic locations while exploiting AMI/PV inverter/ µPMU data. This CARE-PV project addresses the fundamental challenges in situational awareness and resilience to cyber and physical vectors by exploiting the synergy between innovative modeling, estimation, data analytics, testing and validation using smart PV inverters designed at K-State and facilities at NREL. Specifically, the project involved the development, testing and validation of the following novel enabling technologies: (Thrust 1) Resilience to cyber vectors that impact data integrity was addressed via a two-level defense strategy that combines cyber intrusion detection using self-learning, cooperative smart PV inverters, and a novel moving target defense framework to combat data integrity attacks. (Thrust 2) Resilience to cyber-physical vectors that impact situational awareness by limiting data availability was addressed via novel centralized and decentralized, sparsity-based static and dynamic state estimation approaches that enhance observability even when the underlying system is unobservable. (Thrust 3) Leveraging a unique probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach accompanied by one-of-a-kind dominant influencer set computation, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure at strategic locations was evaluated so that proactive PV-based control strategies can be used to support operations under normal/outage scenarios. These CARE-PV project innovations were demonstrated on both small-scale IEEE and larger utility-scale testbeds (Thrust 4). Feedback from Industry Advisory Board members was used to formulate a commercialization pathway for a subset of CARE-PV technologies. These CARE-PV technologies will ultimately lead to reliable and secure, large-scale integration of renewable energy and mitigate the risk of energy disruption resulting from cyber incidents and other emerging threats within the energy environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Democratizing life cycle assessment by developing a streamlined model of greenhouse gas emissions from US natural gas supply chains

Natural gas (NG) supply chains contribute substantially to the global energy supply and anthropogenic methane emissions, making them frequent subjects of life cycle assessments (LCAs). To better characterize central tendencies and variability, we systematically reviewed and harmonized published estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from United States NG supply chains. Results informed a streamlined LCA model (SLiNG-GHG: streamlined LCAs of NG-GHGs) that quantifies carbon dioxide and methane from three gates: transmission, distribution, and shipping. Median estimates employing harmonized emission inputs, are 10, 11, and 21 g CO2e/MJ gas (100-year global warming potentials [GWPs]), and 20, 22, and 33 g CO2e/MJ gas (20-year GWPs), delivered to each gate, respectively. Alternatively, inputting available, independent methane measurements, SLiNG-GHG estimates varied from -23% to +316% relative to baseline. Bottom-up inventories used in LCAs tend to underestimate methane compared with measurements. Results underscore the need for open-source, streamlined LCA models that can easily incorporate rapidly evolving measurements for non-experts like investors and regulators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decentralized Data-Driven Estimation of Generator Rotor Speed and Inertia Constant Based on Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter

This paper proposes an online decentralized and data-driven method for synchronous generator rotor speed and inertia estimation. First, an analytical relationship between the generator terminal voltage/current phasors and its internal rotor speed is derived using the Thevenin equivalent. The parameters of the latter are obtained via a recursive estimator, which allows us to estimate the generator's internal rotor speed from voltage/current phasors without the need for any generator information. Second, we reformulate the equivalent swing equation into the Kalman filter form, which enables us to use a priori-estimated internal rotor speed along with measured real and reactive power injections to obtain an estimate of the inertia for each online synchronous generator. This is achieved through an adaptive unscented Kalman filter. We demonstrate that the use of terminal bus frequency to approximate the rotor speed for inertia estimation by existing methods leads to large estimation biases/errors. Numerical simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems reveal that our proposed method is consistently more accurate than existing methods. Moreover, our proposed method is insensitive to both the type and location of system disturbances, and it is robust to different levels of measurement noise.

bus frequency↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring finite temperature properties of materials with quantum computers

Abstract Thermal properties of nanomaterials are crucial to not only improving our fundamental understanding of condensed matter systems, but also to developing novel materials for applications spanning research and industry. Since quantum effects arise at the nano-scale, these systems are difficult to simulate on classical computers. Quantum computers can efficiently simulate quantum many-body systems, yet current quantum algorithms for calculating thermal properties of these systems incur significant computational costs in that they either prepare the full thermal state on the quantum computer, or they must sample a number of pure states from a distribution that grows with system size. Canonical thermal pure quantum (TPQ) states provide a promising path to estimating thermal properties of quantum materials as they neither require preparation of the full thermal state nor require a growing number of samples with system size. Here, we present an algorithm for preparing canonical TPQ states on quantum computers. We compare three different circuit implementations for the algorithm and demonstrate their capabilities in estimating thermal properties of quantum materials. Due to its increasing accuracy with system size and flexibility in implementation, we anticipate that this method will enable finite temperature explorations of relevant quantum materials on near-term quantum computers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematic planning of moving target defence for maximising detection effectiveness against false data injection attacks in smart grid

Abstract Moving target defence (MTD) has been gaining traction to thwart false data injection attacks against state estimation (SE) in the power grid. MTD actively perturbs the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D‐FACTS) devices to falsify the attacker's knowledge about the system configuration. However, the existing literature has not systematically studied what influences the detection effectiveness of MTD and how it can be improved based on the topology analysis. These problems are tackled here from the perspective of an MTD plan in which the D‐FACTS placement is determined. We first exploit the relation between the rank of the composite matrix and the detecting effectiveness. Then, we rigorously derive upper and lower bounds on the attack detecting probability of MTDs with a given rank of the composite matrix. Furthermore, we analyse existing planning methods and highlight the importance of bus coverage by D‐FACTS devices. To improve the detection effectiveness, we propose a novel graph theory–based planning algorithm to retain the maximum rank of the composite matrix while covering all necessary buses. Comparative results on multiple systems show the high detecting effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in both DC‐ and AC‐SE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization-Based Dynamic Voltage Support of Microgrids Using Energy Storage Systems

A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

CACTI: Best Estimate Aerosol Size Distribution by airborne measurements

These data were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI; https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/amf2018cacti ) field campaign in the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range of north-central Argentina as part of ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) deployment. The ARM Aerial Facility Gulfstream-1 was operated from Las Higueras Airport (IATA: RCU, ICAO: SAOC), Río Cuarto, Córdoba, Argentina, for the Intensive Observation Period (IOP) from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15, 2018. The G-1 aircraft performed 22 research flights over the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) location in the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range to measure atmospheric state and turbulence, cloud water content and droplet size distributions, aerosol precursor gases, aerosol chemical composition and size distributions. The current data set presents Best Estimate Aerosol Size Distribution: a merged aerosol size distribution composed of the data from 5 sensors; three aerosol spectrometers: Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS), Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS), and Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer (PCASP); and two cloud probes: Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS) and Fast Cloud Droplet Probe (FCDP). The SMPS data were interpolated to 1 second from “native” time resolution of about 64 second to match all other probes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structures of Vanadium-Containing Silicate and Borosilicate Glasses: Vanadium Potential Development and MD Simulations

Vanadium-containing multi-component glasses have been found with widely interests in various applications. However, the complex compositions, thus structures, lead to the challenges in experiments to understand the structural origin of the property change of these glasses. In this work, we developed compatible vanadium-related parameters for a widely used pair wise potential set to enable the simulations of the vanadium-containing multi-component glasses. Various crystal structures and glass compositions (with vanadium in different oxidation states) have been tested using the newly developed parameters, and structural information of cell parameters, pair distribution function, estimated bond distance, and coordination number have been obtained. The results are in good agreement with available experimental data, which indicates the new vanadium parameters can be used to simulate the vanadium-containing multi-component glasses and thus help study those applications with wide interests.

Deng, Lu↗

DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nearly optimal state preparation for quantum simulations of lattice gauge theories

Here, we present several improvements to the recently developed ground-state preparation algorithm based on the quantum eigenvalue transformation for unitary matrices (QETU), apply this algorithm to a lattice formulation of U(1) gauge theory in (2+1) dimensions, as well as propose an alternative application of QETU, a highly efficient preparation of Gaussian distributions. The QETU technique was originally proposed as an algorithm for nearly optimal ground-state preparation and ground-state energy estimation on early fault-tolerant devices. It uses the time-evolution input model, which can potentially overcome the large overall prefactor in the asymptotic gate cost arising in similar algorithms based on the Hamiltonian input model. We present modifications to the original QETU algorithm that significantly reduce the cost for the cases of both exact and Trotterized implementation of the time evolution circuit. We use QETU to prepare the ground state of a U(1) lattice gauge theory in two spatial dimensions, explore the dependence of computational resources on the desired precision and system parameters, and discuss the applicability of our results to general lattice gauge theories. We also demonstrate how the QETU technique can be utilized for preparing Gaussian distributions and wave packets in a way which outperforms existing algorithms for as little as n q ≳ 2–5 qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Development Potential at United States Correctional Facilities

The goal of this assessment was to provide a high-level overview of distributed wind development potential at correctional facilities across the United States. The assessment considered the wind resource, electricity rates, and electricity consumption at facilities. In total, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimates that 2,421 facilities in 1,280 counties, projected to consume a combined 12,000 GWh/year, have the potential to host distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Voltage Estimation in Low-Voltage Distribution Grids with Distributed Energy Resources

Present distribution grids generally have limited sensing capabilities and are therefore characterized by low observability. Improved observability is a prerequisite for increasing the hosting capacity of distributed energy resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids. In this context, this paper presents learning-aided low-voltage estimation using untapped but readily available and widely distributed sensors from cable television (CATV) networks. The cable broadband sensors offer timely local voltage magnitude sensing with 5-minute resolution and can provide an order of magnitude more data on the time-varying state of a secondary distribution system than currently deployed utility sensors. The proposed solution incorporates voltage readings from neighboring CATV sensors, taking into account spatio-temporal aspects of the observations, and estimates single-phase voltage magnitudes at all non-monitored low-voltage buses using random forests. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was demonstrated using a multi-phase 1572-bus feeder from the SMART-DS data set for two case studies passive distribution feeder (without PV) and active distribution feeder (with PV). The analysis was conducted on simulated data, and the results show voltage estimates with a high degree of accuracy, even at extremely low percentages of observable nodes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prompt and non-prompt J/ψ production cross sections at midrapidity in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{\mathrm{s}} $ = 5.02 and 13 TeV

The production of J /ψ is measured at midrapidity ( |y| < 0 . 9) in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 5 . 02 and 13 TeV, through the dielectron decay channel, using the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data sets used for the analyses correspond to integrated luminosities of $ \mathcal{L} $ int = 19.4 ± 0.4 nb - 1 and $ \mathcal{L} $ int = 32.2 ± 0.5 nb - 1 at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 5 . 02 and 13 TeV, respectively. The fraction of non-prompt J /ψ mesons, i.e. those originating from the decay of beauty hadrons, is measured down to a transverse momentum p T = 2 GeV /c (1 GeV /c ) at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 5 . 02 TeV (13 TeV). The p T and rapidity ( y ) differential cross sections, as well as the corresponding values integrated over p T and y , are carried out separately for prompt and non-prompt J /ψ mesons. The results are compared with measurements from other experiments and theoretical calculations based on quantum chromodynamics (QCD). The shapes of the p T and y distributions of beauty quarks predicted by state-of-the-art perturbative QCD models are used to extrapolate an estimate of the $ \mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}} $ pair cross section at midrapidity and in the total phase space. The total $ \mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}} $ cross sections are found to be $ {\sigma}_{\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}} $ = 541 ± 45 (stat . ) ± 69 $ {\left(\mathrm{syst}.\right)}_{-12}^{+10} $ (extr . ) μ b and $ {\sigma}_{\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}} $ = 218 ± 37 (stat . ) ± 31 $ {\left(\mathrm{syst}.\right)}_{-9.1}^{+8.2} $ (extr . ) μ b at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 and 5.02 TeV, respectively. The value obtained from the combination of ALICE and LHCb measurements in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV is also provided.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗