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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The distribution of [α/Fe] in the Milky Way disc

ABSTRACT Using a sample of red giant stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Data Release 16, we infer the conditional distribution $p([\alpha /{\rm Fe}]\, |\, [{\rm Fe}/{\rm H}])$ in the Milky Way disk for the α-elements Mg, O, Si, S, and Ca. In each bin of [Fe/H] and Galactocentric radius R, we model p([α/Fe]) as a sum of two Gaussians, representing ‘low-α’ and ‘high-α’ populations with scale heights $z_1=0.45\, {\rm kpc}$ and $z_2=0.95\, {\rm kpc}$, respectively. By accounting for age-dependent and z-dependent selection effects in APOGEE, we infer the [α/Fe] distributions that would be found for a fair sample of long-lived stars covering all z. Near the Solar circle, this distribution is bimodal at sub-solar [Fe/H], with the low-α and high-α peaks clearly separated by a minimum at intermediate [α/Fe]. In agreement with previous results, we find that the high-α population is more prominent at smaller R, lower [Fe/H], and larger |z|, and that the sequence separation is smaller for Si and Ca than for Mg, O, and S. We find significant intrinsic scatter in [α/Fe] at fixed [Fe/H] for both the low-α and high-α populations, typically ∼0.04-dex. The means, dispersions, and relative amplitudes of this two-Gaussian description, and the dependence of these parameters on R, [Fe/H], and α-element, provide a quantitative target for chemical evolution models and a test for hydrodynamic simulations of disk galaxy formation. We argue that explaining the observed bimodality will probably require one or more sharp transitions in the disk’s gas accretion, star formation, or outflow history in addition to radial mixing of stellar populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Intrinsic Shapes of Low Surface Brightness Galaxies (LSBGs): A Discriminant of LSBG Galaxy Formation Mechanisms

We use the low surface brightness galaxy (LSBG) samples created from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (781 galaxies), the Dark Energy Survey (20977 galaxies), and the Legacy Survey (selected via H ι detection in the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA Survey, 188 galaxies) to infer the intrinsic shape distribution of the LSBG population. To take into account the effect of the surface brightness cuts employed when constructing LSBG samples, we simultaneously model both the projected ellipticity and the apparent surface brightness in our shape inference. We find that the LSBG samples are well characterized by oblate spheroids, with no significant difference between red and blue LSBGs. This inferred shape distribution is in good agreement with similar inferences made for ultra-diffuse cluster galaxy samples, indicating that environment does not play a key role in determining the intrinsic shape of LSBGs. In this study, we also find some evidence that LSBGs are more thickened than similarly massive high surface brightness dwarfs. We compare our results to intrinsic shape measures from contemporary cosmological simulations, and find that the observed LSBG intrinsic shapes place considerable constraints on the formation path of such galaxies. In particular, LSBG production via the migration of star formation to large radii produces intrinsic shapes in good agreement with our observational findings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Trapped Melt in IIIAB Irons: Solid/Liquid Elemental Partitioning During the Fractionation of the IIIAB Magma

Group IIIAB, the largest iron-meteorite group, shows compositional trends (including a three-order-of-magnitude It concentration range) indicating that it formed by fractional crystallization of a metallic magma. Because about 200 irons are available, and all degrees of crystallization are well represented, IIIAB offers an excellent set of samples for the study of crystallization at all depths of the asteroidal core. On log-log Ir-Au, and Ir-As diagrams IIIAB forms a broad band; the breadth represents real meteorite-to-meteorite variations, far outside experimental or sampling uncertainties. A successful model must explain the width of this band; I suggest that it mainly resulted from the trapping of parental magma within the crystallizing solid. Because S is essentially insoluble in metal, the abundance of FeS is a measure of the fraction of trapped liquid. The trapped-melt model is supported by the observation that irons having higher S contents plot closer to the inferred composition of the magmatic parental liquid. The lowest S values are found in the irons occupying the left envelope of the IIIAB Ir-Au or Ir-As compositional fields, thus it is this set of irons that should be interpreted as the solid products of a fractionating magma. This simplifies the modeling of the crystallization process and allows inferences regarding the distribution ratios for other elements in the evolved IIIAB system. The large (multiton) Cape York irons show wide variations in their trapped-melt fractions; their compositions seem best understood in terms of a low initial S content of the IIIAB magma, about 20 mg/g. The inferred initial IIIAB distribution coefficient for Ir, 4.6, is much higher than published values based on laboratory studies of low-S systems; I suggest that low-S (and low-P) partition-ratio measurements tend to err in the direction of unity. In IIIAB distribution coefficients for Au, As, and Ni were still < 1 when the most evolved IIIAB irons formed, another indication of a low initial S content.

Wasson, John T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell–Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way’s last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

Shpigel, Tal [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)]↗
NASA NTRS1971

Nature of the Martian surface as inferred from the particle-size distribution of lunar-surface material.

Analysis of lunar particle size distribution data indicates that the surface material is composed of two populations. One population is caused by comminution from the impact of the larger-sized meteorites, while the other population is caused by the melting of fine material by the impact of smaller-sized meteorites. The results are referred to Mars, and it is shown that the Martian atmosphere would vaporize the smaller incoming meteorites and retard the incoming meteorites of intermediate and large size, causing comminution and stirring of the particulate layer. The combination of comminution and stirring would result in fine material being sorted out by the prevailing circulation of the Martian atmosphere and the material being transported to regions where it could be deposited. As a result, the Martian surface in regions of prevailing upward circulation is probably covered by either a rubble layer or by desert pavement; regions of prevailing downward circulation are probably covered by sand dunes.

Mason, C. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

EMPDF : inferring the Milky Way mass with data-driven distribution function in phase space

We introduce the emPDF (empirical distribution function), a novel dynamical modelling method that infers the gravitational potential from kinematic tracers with optimal statistical efficiency under the minimal assumption of steady state. emPDF determines the best-fitting potential by maximizing the similarity between instantaneous kinematics and the time-averaged phase-space distribution function (DF), which is empirically constructed from observation upon the theoretical foundation of oPDF (Han et al. 2016). This approach eliminates the need for presumed functional forms of DFs or orbit libraries required by conventional DF- or orbit-based methods. emPDF stands out for its flexibility, efficiency, and capability in handling observational effects, making it preferable to the popular Jeans equation or other minimal assumption methods, especially for the Milky Way (MW) outer halo where tracers often have limited sample size and poor data quality. We apply emPDF to infer the MW mass profile using Gaia DR3 data of satellite galaxies and globular clusters, obtaining enclosed masses of M (,r) = 26±8, 46±8, 90±13⁠, and 149±40 x 10 10 M ⊙ at r = 30, 50, 100⁠, and 200 kpc, respectively. These are consistent with the updated constraints from simulation-informed DF fitting (Li et al. 2020). While the simulation-informed DF offers superior precision owing to the additional information extracted from simulations, emPDF is independent of such supplementary knowledge and applicable to general tracer populations. emPDF is currently implemented for tracers with complete 6D kinematics within spherical potentials, but it can potentially be extended to address more general problems.

Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA)↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cratering Rates in the Outer Solar System

We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets (aka JFCs) to determine impact cratering rates from Jupiter to Pluto. Long period comets and asteroids are currently unimportant on most worlds at most sizes. The size- number distribution of comets smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton; while the size- number distribution of comets bigger than 50 km is equated to the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt Objects. The gap is bridged by interpolation. It is notable that small craters on Jupiter's moons indicate a pronounced paucity of small impactors, while small craters on Triton imply a collisional population rich in small bodies. However it is unclear whether the craters on Triton are of heliocentric or planetocentric origin. We therefore consider two cases for Saturn and beyond: a Case A in which the size-number distribution is like that inferred at Jupiter, and a Case B in which small objects obey a more nearly collisional distribution. Known craters on Saturnian and Uranian satellites are consistent with either Case, although surface ages are much younger in Case B, especially at Saturn and Uranus. At Neptune and especially at Saturn our cratering rates are much higher than rates estimated by Shoemaker and colleagues, presumably because Shoemaker's estimates mostly predate discovery of the Kuiper Belt. We also estimate collisional disruption rates of moons and compare these to estimates in the literature .

Zahnle, K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Determination of the complex refractive index and size distribution of atmospheric particulates from bistatic-monostatic lidar and solar radiometer measurements

A method is presented for inferring both the size distribution and the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates from combined bistatic-monostatic lidar and solar radiometer observations. The basic input measurements are spectral optical depths at several visible and near-infrared wavelengths as obtained with a solar radiometer and backscatter and angular scatter coefficients as obtained from a biostatic-monostatic lidar. The spectral optical depth measurements obtained from the radiometer are mathematically inverted to infer a columnar particulate size distribution. Advantage is taken of the fact that the shape of the size distribution obtained by inverting the particulate optical depth is relatively insensitive to the particle refractive index assumed in the inversion. Bistatic-monostatic angular scatter and backscatter lidar data are then processed to extract an optimum value for the particle refractive index subject to the constraint that the shape of the particulate size distribution be the same as that inferred from the solar radiometer data. Specifically, the scattering parameters obtained from the bistatic-monostatic lidar data are compared with corresponding theoretical computations made for various assumed refractive index values. That value which yields best agreement, in a weighted least squares sense, is selected as the optimal refractive index estimate. The results of this procedure applied to a set of simulated measurements as well as to measurements collected on two separate days are presented and discussed.

Reagan, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Induced Fracture Geometries Using Fiber-Optic Distributed Strain Sensing in Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2

Fiber-optic Distributed Strain Sensor observations in a vertical well allow rapid inference of the time evolution of nearby hydraulic fracture heights and their vertical aperture distributions during stimulation and depressurization. We describe a computationally efficient deconvolutional model based on an elastostatic kernel for fracture opening within an isotropic, homogeneous, linear elastic medium. Furthermore, an application of this model to observations from the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 reveals that ultimate fracture heights are typically greater than those indicated by microseismic monitoring, and some hydraulic fractures continue their upward growth for several hours after high-pressure injections ceased.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Emplacement of Shergottites in the Martian Crust Inferred From 3D Petrofabric and Crystal Size Distribution Analyses

Shergottites are mafic to ultramafic igneous rocks that represent a majority of known martian meteorites. They are subdivided into gabbroic, poikilitic, basaltic, and olivine-phyric categories based on differences in mineralogy and textures. Their geologic contexts are unknown so analyses of crystal sizes and preferred orientations have commonly been used to infer where shergottites solidified. Such environments range from subsurface cumulates to shallow intrusives to extrusive lava flows, which all have contrasting implications for interactions with crustal material, cooling histories, and potential in situ exposure at the surface. In this study, we present a novel three-dimensional (3D) approach to better understand the solidification environments of these samples and improve our knowledge of shergottites’ geologic contexts. Shape preferred orientations of most phases and crystal size distributions of late-forming minerals were measured in 3D using X-ray computed tomography (CT) on eight shergottites representing the gabbroic, poikilitic, basaltic, and olivine-phyric categories. Our analyses show that highly anisotropic, rod-like pyroxene crystals are strongly foliated in the gabbroic samples but have a weaker foliation and a mild lineation in the basaltic sample, indicating a directional flow component in the latter. Star volume distribution analyses revealed that most phases (maskelynite, pyroxene, olivine, and oxides/sulfides) preserve a foliated texture with variable strengths, and that the phases within individual samples are strongly to moderately aligned with respect to one another. In combination with relative cooling rates during the final stages of crystallization determined from interstitial oxide/sulfide crystal size distribution analyses, these results indicate that the olivine-phyric samples were emplaced as shallow intrusives (e.g., dikes/sills) and that the gabbroic, poikilitic, and basaltic samples were emplaced in deeper subsurface environments.

Martian meteorites↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observations of GEO Debris with the Magellan 6.5-m Telescopes

Optical observations of geosynchronous orbit (GEO) debris are important to address two questions: 1. What is the distribution function of objects at GEO as a function of brightness? With some assumptions, this can be used to infer a size distribution. 2. Can we determine what the likely composition of individual GEO debris pieces is from studies of the spectral reflectance of these objects? In this paper we report on optical observations with the 6.5-m Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile that attempt to answer both questions. Imaging observations over a 0.5 degree diameter field-of-view have detected a significant population of optically faint debris candidates with R > 19th magnitude, corresponding to a size smaller than 20 cm assuming an albedo of 0.175. Many of these objects show brightness variations larger than a factor of 2, suggesting either irregular shapes or albedo variations or both. The object detection rate (per square degree per hour) shows an increase over the rate measured in the 0.6-m MODEST observations, implying an increase in the population at optically fainter levels. Assuming that the albedo distribution is the same for both samples, this corresponds to an increase in the population of smaller size debris. To study the second issue, calibrated reflectance spectroscopy has been obtained of a sample of GEO and near GEO objects with orbits in the public U.S. Space Surveillance Network catalog. With a 6.5-m telescope, the exposures times are short (30 seconds or less), and provide simultaneous wavelength coverage from 4500 to 8000 Angstroms. If the observed objects are tumbling, then simultaneous coverage and short exposure times are essential for a realistic assessment of the object fs spectral signature. We will compare the calibrated spectra with lab-based measurements of simple spacecraft surfaces composed of a single material.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Distribution of Interplanetary Dust between 0.96 and 1.04 au as Inferred from Impacts on the STEREO Spacecraft Observed by the Heliospheric Imagers

The distribution of dust in the ecliptic plane between 0.96 and 1.04 au has been inferred from impacts on the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft through observation of secondary particle trails and unexpected off-points in the heliospheric imager (HI) cameras. This study made use of analysis carried out by members of a distributed webbased citizen science project Solar Stormwatch. A comparison between observations of the brightest particle trails and a survey of fainter trails shows consistent distributions. While there is no obvious correlation between this distribution and the occurrence of individual meteor streams at Earth, there are some broad longitudinal features in these distributions that are also observed in sources of the sporadic meteor population. The different position of the HI instrument on the two STEREO spacecraft leads to each sampling different populations of dust particles. The asymmetry in the number of trails seen by each spacecraft and the fact that there are many more unexpected off-points in the HI-B than in HI-A indicates that the majority of impacts are coming from the apex direction. For impacts causing off-points in the HI-B camera, these dust particles are estimated to have masses in excess of 10 (exp−17) kg with radii exceeding 0.1 μm. For off-points observed in the HI-A images, which can only have been caused by particles travelling from the anti-apex direction, the distribution is consistent with that of secondary 'storm' trails observed by HI-B, providing evidence that these trails also result from impacts with primary particles from an anti-apex source. Investigating the mass distribution for the off-points of both HI-A and HI-B, it is apparent that the differential mass index of particles from the apex direction (causing off-points in HI-B) is consistently above 2. This indicates that the majority of the mass is within the smaller particles of this population. In contrast, the differential mass index of particles from the anti-apex direction (causing off-points in HI-A) is consistently below 2, indicating that the majority of the mass is to be found in larger particles of this distribution.

Davis, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Local ISM 3D Distribution and Soft X-ray Background Inferences for Nearby Hot Gas

Three-dimensional (3D) interstellar medium (ISM) maps can be used to locate not only interstellar (IS) clouds, but also IS bubbles between the clouds that are blown by stellar winds and supernovae, and are filled by hot gas. To demonstrate this, and to derive a clearer picture of the local ISM, we compare our recent 3D IS dust distribution maps to the ROSAT diffuse Xray background maps after removal of heliospheric emission. In the Galactic plane, there is a good correspondence between the locations and extents of the mapped nearby cavities and the soft (0.25 keV) background emission distribution, showing that most of these nearby cavities contribute to this soft X-ray emission. Assuming a constant dust to gas ratio and homogeneous 106 K hot gas filling the cavities, we modeled in a simple way the 0.25 keV surface brightness along the Galactic plane as seen from the Sun, taking into account the absorption by the mapped clouds. The data-model comparison favors the existence of hot gas in the solar neighborhood, the so-called Local Bubble (LB). The inferred mean pressure in the local cavities is found to be approx.9,400/cu cm K, in agreement with previous studies, providing a validation test for the method. On the other hand, the model overestimates the emission from the huge cavities located in the third quadrant. Using CaII absorption data, we show that the dust to CaII ratio is very small in those regions, implying the presence of a large quantity of lower temperature (non-X-ray emitting) ionized gas and as a consequence a reduction of the volume filled by hot gas, explaining at least part of the discrepancy. In the meridian plane, the two main brightness enhancements coincide well with the LB's most elongated parts and chimneys connecting the LB to the halo, but no particular nearby cavity is found towards the enhancement in the direction of the bright North Polar Spur (NPS) at high latitude. We searched in the 3D maps for the source regions of the higher energy (0.75 keV) enhancements in the fourth and first quadrants. Tunnels and cavities are found to coincide with the main bright areas, however no tunnel nor cavity is found to match the low-latitude b > or approx. 8deg, brightest part of the NPS. In addition, the comparison between the 3D maps and published spectral data favors a NPS central source region location beyond 230 pc, i.e. at larger distance than usually considered. Those examples illustrate the potential use of more detailed 3D distributions of the nearby ISM for the interpretation of the diffuse soft X-ray background.

Xray Emission↗
NASA NTRS1979

Magnetopause characteristics inferred from three-dimensional energetic particle distributions

Three-dimensional distributions for 24- to 44.5 KeV protons (ions) are presented from the ISEE 1 medium-energy particles instrument during a magnetopause traversal at about 0145:00 hours UT on November 20, 1977. The use of these data and simple particle orbit geometry makes it possible to infer magnetopause boundary location, orientation, and velocity. The results are consistent with both overall boundary motions toward and away from the earth at velocities of 10-20 km/s and the presence of a surface wave on the boundary. For the case analyzed, the boundary appears stable and well defined, being capable of supporting trapped type distributions (conservation of the first and second adiabatic invariants) within a fraction of a gyroradius from the magnetosheath field where no trapping is observed.

Williams, D. J.↗